No, then if Trump really gets elected, will renewable energy stocks all collapse? Should I sell now? In fact, it's unlikely. For this fiscal policy to be abandoned, it needs approval even within the Republican Party. But in the case of the IRA policy this time, there is a significant investment happening in Republican districts. Can they really abolish it directly? Hello, this is Seok. Kim Hyo-sik, the team leader of Samsung Active Asset Management, is here with us. Hello. Yes, team leader. These days, you have been appearing on our channel frequently, providing updates on the industry, especially on energy and renewable energy-related companies, which has been very informative. You have been doing a great job. However, before we start today, even though Manager Yang Hee-chang explained it last time,

NVIDIA's words are a bit shaky. At times like this, instead of just focusing on NVIDIA, it might be good to think about other things. For example, AI is not over yet, so I heard that they brought some stocks that we should pay attention to. I would like to hear an explanation. Recently, our customers also ask if there are other good stocks besides NVIDIA. Many people ask about this. In relation to that, many experts are mentioning various stocks, but I think it's necessary for us to talk about what we see positively as well. Yes, so if you look at the chart here, we are considering five main points. First of all, there is Oracle. In the cloud market, there are the big three, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google. Not only the big three, but I think we should also pay attention to Oracle, which is a fourth company.

Currently, Broadcom is a company that stands out in the field of order-made semiconductors, especially in the area of AI network equipment. As AI advances, the demand for storage in the corporate SSD market is naturally increasing. Companies like Micron, Western Digital, and Pure Storage related to SSD are also expected to perform well. Recently, Apple's stock price seems to be rebounding. Apple has been struggling in the Chinese market, affecting its stock price, but with the release of the iPhone with on-device AI features around September in the third quarter, there is hope for a turnaround.

Qualcomm originally started as a mobile AP company, but in the second half of this year, laptops equipped with Qualcomm's AI PC chips will be released in large numbers. Therefore, this company is expanding its reach from the mobile AP market to the PC semiconductor market. This is something to pay attention to. Let me elaborate on this. Usually, we think that NVIDIA has been leading the industry, and if we consider that there is an initial stage where other stocks spread into the industry while NVIDIA is leading, it is crucial to know which stocks and for what reasons we should be interested in. It seems very important. I am looking forward to it. In the case of Oracle, it can be seen as a global top-tier cloud company. What's unique about this company is that in the last quarter's earnings report, they announced a cloud infrastructure supply contract towards Google's Open AI.

When you think about it, there is OpenAI, Microsoft, and Google with Google Cloud. They also made a contract with Oracle Cloud, which seems odd. Why did they do that? Anyway, as AI advances, the demand for AI data centers is increasing. The top companies cannot keep up with this demand. It seems overwhelming. As a result, Oracle is now going to them, saying, Please lend us some of your infrastructure. In terms of revenue growth for this company, we expect a rebound from the next quarter onwards. So, by next year, this company is expected to show a revenue growth rate of over 10%. Therefore, Oracle, which is now not too expensive in terms of multiples, is a cloud company that investors should pay attention to in the future. This is how we think. It can be seen as a common spillover effect.

It seems like that, right? It's overflowing like a cup, overflowing too much. It's unbearable for 1, 2, 3, so now, with the workload increasing up to the 4th place, it seems like that's the environment. Next is Broadcom. Broadcom is one of the favorite stocks for many people. If you look at the revenue structure of this company, you can see what I've marked in the red box here. Customized AI, which means order-made semiconductors and network parts. Mainly, the AI revenue is here, and not only did the AI revenue exceed expectations in the last quarter's performance, but by the end of this year, the revenue share of these order-made semiconductors and network parts combined is expected to be around 30%. However, next year, this revenue share is expected to almost double to around 60%. Therefore, in the future, this company has various business units, but focusing on order-made semiconductors and AI in the network sector.

The network side is now expected to drive performance, so recently, on Wall Street, there are many analysts who speak favorably about Broadcom. The talk of the revenue share increasing from the 30% range to the 60% range implies that other areas are not just sitting still. Due to the tremendously rapid growth, it seems possible. This vividly demonstrates how much the custom semiconductor business is growing. If Broadcom becomes a trillion-dollar company in the future, where it will rank, it seems like it will definitely be one of those companies where it is expected to reach a trillion dollars. So, Broadcom seems to be one of the leading companies. Therefore, in recent times, they have just started processing orders for Broadcom's custom semiconductor business, so some people may not be aware of it.

In fact, this company has been prominently featured on Google as TP even before the face-to-face meeting. Yes, Google has its own design, but Broadcom also assists in the design. So, they have been working together on Google TPUs. Recently, they have even secured orders up to the latest version of TPUs. Not only with Google, but also with new clients like Meta and ByteDance, they are continuously receiving orders for custom semiconductors. Therefore, big tech companies cannot solely rely on NVIDIA GPUs. It is clear that there is a need for diversification. It seems that companies are increasingly choosing Broadcom as a partner because they seem to lack independent design capabilities when diversifying. So, if you look, companies like Google, Meta, ByteDance, Amazon, and Microsoft are mostly now producing custom semiconductors in collaboration with Broadcom or Marvell. This is also a ripple effect, adapting to NVIDIA.

As it no longer works, it is now flowing into work. We consider Oracle and Broadcom, which were mentioned earlier, as representative companies of the ripple effect. Another company is a storage-related company. The chart you are looking at shows Korea's SSD exports. If you look, you can see that SSD exports hit bottom and are showing a slight rebound. This data is until May of this year. The fact that Korea's SSD exports are rebounding ultimately means that the overall demand for SSDs globally is increasing. It's not just in Korea; in the U.S., companies like Micron, Western Digital, and Pure Storage are engaged in SSD-related businesses. Therefore, we expect that the stock prices of these companies can be anticipated in the future. And we cannot avoid talking about the iPhone. Apple actually last year.

If you remember, the Chinese Communist Party is now saying not to use foreign smartphones, but they are caught using Galaxy and iPhone anyway. Anyways, with the on-device AI feature coming from the iPhone, this could trigger replacement demand a bit faster. However, because the current consensus itself is not burdensome, even if this replacement demand is triggered a little faster, there is a high possibility of meeting the consensus. Due to these factors, it can be understood that the recent rise in stock prices has started to rebound. I think there is a certain level of replacement demand now. So, when it comes to replacement, for example, there used to be the strongest Android phones, but now with AI, it's Apple. This is also a replacement, but in fact, as you can see now, in the past, we changed smartphones every two years. Nowadays, it's said to be changed every 3 to 4 years.

Yes, because it is made so well and doesn't break down easily, people don't feel the need to change it. So, even I think to myself, It's been two years since it broke down, why is it still working so well? It feels like it's time for a change, but for those who haven't changed yet, this could be an opportunity. Just by doing this, there is a demand for replacement, so even if there's no expectation, it's okay to have some expectations. Also, to utilize the on-device AI function properly, it is said that you need at least 8GB of RAM. However, most of the previous iPhone models had 6GB or less. That's right, that's right. So, even if you want to use the on-device AI function, it doesn't work properly with older models. Therefore, these factors might quickly stimulate the demand for replacements. We are expecting that to happen. Yes, as you mentioned earlier, this story is also related to storage, so there's a 15% difference in RAM, a difference of 2GB.

To make this AI work, it's been said that it needs an additional 2 gigabytes of DRAM, and now there seems to be growing expectations for this part. Lastly, it's hard not to talk about Qualcomm. In fact, Qualcomm is well known for Snapdragon AP, which is used in many flagship smartphones, including Galaxy phones. Snapdragon AP is a famous company, and recently they have been responding quite actively. They have aggressively entered the automotive semiconductor market a few years ago, and in the second half of this year, about 22 laptops equipped with PC chips made using Qualcomm's architecture will be released consecutively. So, Qualcomm is gradually expanding its presence from mobile phones to laptops and desktop PCs. Therefore, there are high expectations for Qualcomm's stock price itself, but what you see on this chart is global.

PC, which represents the shipment volume of laptops and desktops. If you look at the shipment growth rate now, it's almost close to 0%, right? With the on-device AI functions like iPhones, it is expected to stimulate replacement demand. So, if the growth rate in this area accelerates a bit, not only laptop manufacturers but also OEM and ODM companies, particularly companies like Qualcomm, could benefit greatly. That's how I see it. I think it's necessary to check on this part. Companies like Qualcomm and Apple would do well if their products sell, right? But I'm worried that they might not sell well now. From a seller's perspective, since no one is buying PCs, they attach AI and market it, saying how great it is. But from a consumer's perspective, if they don't buy it, it's a loss. So, this is...

In the second half of the year, one of the things we need to pay close attention to when investing in IT is whether it will be a hit. It is necessary to carefully check the actual consumer reactions. Especially in the laptop area, laptops adopting Qualcomm CPUs may have compatibility issues in the early stages; some are said to be running arrays. These compatibility issues are expected to be resolved over time, but they could be a bit of a hurdle in the initial spread of AI laptops. Therefore, it is right to check consumer reactions meticulously. Although it is a time to be interested, it is necessary to check consumer reactions. In fact, while NVIDIA's stock is fluctuating, as you mentioned, the stock prices of other companies are not going up due to policies; they are undergoing some adjustments. Micron also announced its earnings last week, and its stock price has undergone some adjustments.

To succeed in investments and achieve good results, it's important to make decisions when the stock market is fluctuating. When the stock market is fluctuating, it's not the time to buy. It's better to wait until you have good reasons to buy more, which will lead to good results. As you look at the five points that have been mentioned in this process, you can assess for yourself which ones you agree or disagree with, and make investment decisions accordingly. This kind of self-assessment based on these five points could greatly help improve your performance. Now, let's get into the main topic. Manager Kim, who is specialized in energy-related equipment, had an important event last Friday. There was a big event last week, the TV debate between Trump and Biden. We had some expectations, and Trump...

I'll do well. Of course, Biden must be feeling the burden of age a bit, but I didn't know it was to this extent. I had no idea it was this serious, and I was also surprised when I saw it. It was too severe. So, when I came in this time and looked at the editorial in The Economist, there was this expression: The greatest thing in Biden's political career would be to quit now. It's really, really harsh. I have thoughts like this to the extent that now, there are so many talks about Biden coming down. Because of this, naturally in the financial markets, it makes you think, Then we should prepare for the era of Trump, and the first thing that comes to mind is Xinjiang. So, how will you unravel these contents? In fact, last Friday, after the presidential debate ended, when you think about it conceptually, Biden's

The signature policy is now an environmental policy, represented by Ira, an environmentalist. President Trump, during his last term, withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement and had a clear negative stance on renewable energy. So, now that the possibility of Trump's re-election is high, on Friday the 28th in the U.S. market, the stock prices of leading environmental companies like First Solar and NextEra Energy rose. Investors might be curious about this. Will renewable energy stocks collapse if Trump is re-elected? Should they sell now? Many may have such thoughts, but in my personal opinion, that is unlikely to happen. Considering the current policies in the U.S. regarding the development cost of renewable energy, it is very difficult for them to collapse.

For a policy to be abolished, it must be supported within the Republican Party as well. If you think about it, during Trump's first term, there was opposition within the Republican Party when they tried to repeal Obamacare. This time, regarding the IRA policy, I saw a recent report on CNN on June 16th. It said that out of the $350 billion investment triggered by the IRA, about 78% is allocated to Republican districts. So, massive investments are happening in Republican districts. Will it be possible to completely abolish this? Through the ARRA bill, the Biden administration has invested $350 billion, with about 78%, nearly 80%, allocated to Republican strongholds. So, no matter how much Trump tries to support himself, this...

I am seeing benefits from it, but stopping this is a bit difficult. So, what we are thinking is, rather than completely abolishing the IRA, which has relatively little impact up to the wall, there are policies for R&D support, loan programs, or overseas business clauses. Aren't there guidelines for those clauses in the electric vehicle sector to be legislated more tightly? We expect legislation to be carried out in that way, and yes, it may be difficult to do so. However, that's how we see it. This actually appeared the same during the previous Trump administration, so the current stock market reaction is somewhat excessive. Therefore, wise investors may consider this time as a buying opportunity. But until the end of this year, with the presidential election, there will continue to be such noise. Therefore, it would be better to approach this from a perspective of buying in stages.

I'm thinking that maybe that's the case. If you remember the time of Trump, it's tiring, isn't it? It's tiring. I have to check Twitter all the time, and you never know what that person is going to say. I've hit a jackpot in investing not just once or twice. I'm just sitting here, and I'm getting hit by stones for no reason. It's a bit pitiful, but I feel like I have to accept it. I think we need to keep an eye on Trump. Also, Trump appeared on a podcast called The Linda for an interview, and through this video, many people are saying that they are reevaluating Trump. So, on the 21st, I mean, a week before the 28th presidential debate, Trump appeared on the All In podcast for an interview. In fact, there were hardly any meaningful contents in the presidential debate, and rather, in this podcast.

There were some useful points in the interview, Trump said something and our opinion on the implications of that, I will talk about it a bit. In the interview, Trump made such remarks. The representative also wrote about it on the channel. Due to AI, the energy demand in the United States could increase by two to three times in the future, and in response to this... So, ultimately, the increase in U.S. energy is a common view for both the Democrats and the Republicans. However, Trump said that if the opposing party wins, there will no longer be oil in the United States, and there will be negative inflation. This means that if he is elected, he will emphasize the importance of oil and gas and implement support policies. This interpretation can be made. Also, if you look at the current government's energy policy, it is too

It incurs a lot of costs, and once again, you mentioned that birds collide with wind turbines. You have expressed a critical opinion on renewable energy. I will also share my thoughts on this. However, now you mentioned that nuclear, especially small nuclear power plants, are okay and necessary. In fact, support policies for nuclear power have not been issued by the Biden administration. Therefore, when it comes to nuclear power, it can be seen as receiving bipartisan support from both the Republican and Democratic parties. High construction costs are still a significant hurdle. So, looking at the terrain of the U.S. energy industry in the future, I will now provide some insights through data. First of all, I agree that electricity demand is expected to double or triple. However, when it comes to the methodological aspects of addressing this, I will differentiate a bit from Biden.

It seems that's the case. So, before we delve into it, this is one of the charts we often show. If you look at the chart, you can see that since 2007, the power supply in the United States has been stagnant. However, in the future, it is expected to increase by an average of about 5% per year due to manufacturing reshoring, the expansion of electric vehicles, especially because of AI. Therefore, everyone acknowledges the increase in power demand. Ultimately, with the increase in power, power plants will be needed. There are differing opinions on these power plants. So, looking at the chart, it may seem a bit challenging. The U.S. Energy Information Administration announces estimated new power plant costs at the end of the first quarter each year. They estimate how the future power generation costs will be. At the current moment, it is estimated and announced here. The most expensive one in the U.S. currently is offshore.

It's violence. It includes equipment usage fees, capital costs, maintenance costs, fuel costs, and transmission costs, excluding tax benefits. So, if you exclude tax benefits, offshore violence is the most expensive because of CO2. So, anyway, the total cost of making this includes all costs, including the interest cost if you borrowed money, so it's the total cost. Offshore violence is the most expensive. Yes, offshore wind power is the most expensive, so it is a situation where policies are definitely needed here. However, if you look, nuclear power is the second most expensive. In countries like the United States and Europe, the construction costs of nuclear power plants have increased significantly, so without a nuclear power plant system, it is actually difficult for nuclear power to become cheaper. But the reason nuclear power is needed is that nuclear power can generate money within 24 hours, so the equipment utilization rate is close to an average of 90%. If you look, solar power has a utilization rate of 30%, and onshore wind power has 40%.

Due to the nature of the scale, especially when you want to supply power stably to a data center, nuclear power plants are absolutely necessary. So, nuclear power plants are considered good except for the fact that the unit cost of power generation is high. Therefore, even though it is expensive, nuclear power is considered to be something that needs to be consistently maintained. So, when the operating rate of a facility is 90%, it means that the power plant continues to operate and supply electricity continuously. Since a data center naturally needs to operate continuously, solar power, on the other hand, only operates at 30% because it relies on the sun shining during the day. Therefore, it only operates at that time, while the rest of the time it rests. However, even though that's the case, a data center needs to operate continuously, which is why it doesn't quite match well. The reason why it needs to be done even if it's expensive lies in nuclear power. Yes, that's right. Also, if we look at the expensive reasons, it applies to all types of power plants, but especially for nuclear power plants, the initial construction costs are the highest.

It's a power source. Capital costs are included in the cost of generation. In the case of nuclear power, it accounts for 68%. In fact, you can consider this as interest costs. So, when analyzing sensitivity to interest rate hikes, nuclear power seems to be the most vulnerable. That's why, as interest rates are still not high now, in the current situation, it seems that nuclear power is somewhat economically challenging in terms of generation costs. Coal is actually already expensive in terms of generation costs, and there is too much environmental pollution, so it seems there is no clear solution. And now, it seems that it is no longer a consideration. Initially, it's just not a consideration. If you say that you use coal for heating in a representative house, it's actually quite difficult. Therefore, coal is no longer a consideration for the United States, Europe, and others. Next, the economically viable power generation costs are...

From top to bottom, if you look at it, solar plus ES complex detection ground wind power gas complex solar, if you look here, solar gas composite ground violence development cost is almost similar. It fluctuates slightly, but actually, looking at the installation of power plants in the United States, these three are mostly present. So eventually, these three are expected to dominate the main part of US power plants. However, there seems to be a bit more upside in gas here. In the case of gas, the generation cost is low in the United States, and the equipment utilization rate is also high, so recently, looking at new orders from companies like Mitsubishi, it seems that power plants using gas may increase. But the problem is that it takes about 3 years from ordering to completion, so it may be a bit challenging to address immediate power shortages. So, when looking at the generation cost, ground wind power, gas, and solar, that's where the meaning lies.

You probably know that there are alternatives. Let's take a look at how actual power generation installations are done. Here is the net installation amount of power facilities in the United States by year, excluding closures. The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases data by type. During the Trump administration from 2017 to 2020, coal was not the answer. Companies gradually came out of it, so the numbers went below zero, indicating closures. Natural gas had a significant share, but even during the Trump era, there were actually a lot of green wind and orange solar. They have been increasing since then, with gas decreasing. Looking at this year and up to 2024, especially solar is expected to increase significantly. You can see that the data shows that power plant operators are decreasing.

I roughly want to start operating in the month, that's how you submit the plan, right? But I think in the United States, due to the shortage of power, the solar installation volume this year will not be less than 36 GW. There may be some that will be delayed for 1 to 25 years, but anyway, it will be much higher than last year's 19.3 GW. According to Bloomberg, the total utility solar installation in the U.S. this year is expected to reach 28.8 GW, which seems to easily surpass it. Also, it is expected that the pink sector will significantly increase this year due to solar power integration. However, this may also be delayed for about 25 years due to the power grid. As I have been following, recently, things have been delayed like this. Therefore, the largest subsidy currently being received in the United States is for utility solar power. When considering solar power, the site conditions are relatively less stringent, just like that.

If you have a large piece of land, you can quickly build it, and even in a year, you can get electricity. If you have a lot of sunshine, it can be a good power source. In fact, wind power is a good power source, but there is one problem. Wind power projects are mainly located in central regions, especially in rural areas. Electricity is mainly used in the western, southern, and eastern regions, right? So, in order to transmit the electricity generated in the central region to the western, southern, and eastern regions, transmission lines need to be built for hundreds of kilometers. Due to the current shortage of power lines, the installation capacity of wind power is limited. Additionally, there is a high possibility that gas will increase in the future. Let's talk more about gas today. Dr. Jeong Ji-hoon, who appeared on our channel recently, mentioned something really impressive. Looking back historically, when agriculture began, urban development was closely related to where agriculture revolutionized.

There is a riverbank, so you can start farming there. After the Industrial Revolution, documents needed to be made and sent to other countries. At that time, you need to go to the beach. You need a harbor. But now, if you think about it, where is it? If you think about it, it's a place where data centers need to be built a lot. And where should these data centers be built? If you think about it, it should be a place with plenty of sunlight. That's right. It can't be helped. So, in the southwestern part of the United States, Silicon Valley, there is plenty of sunlight. There, utility solar power complexes are densely packed. So, in a place where such solar power, including that sunlight, can be produced, where the walls get a lot of sunlight. In fact, in a place like that, where electricity is generated, where data centers are established, new cities can be built. It was very impressive. You mentioned earlier.

Solar power generated during the day needs to be stored if you want to use electricity at night. That's why although the installation of Energy Storage (ES) systems has increased recently, it's not enough. Therefore, in addition to ES systems, you need baseload power plants like gas or nuclear power plants to provide about 20-30% of the total power generation. Recently, there has been growing interest in gas due to its abundance, especially in the United States. Let me show you the new exports of two companies. The chart on the left shows the new contract amounts for gas turbines from Mitsubishi Heavy Industries in Japan. As you can see, the new contracts have been increasing every year, with a 50% increase in 2023 annually. Last year, the increase was 50%, mainly from North America.

In the Asian region, it is expected that there will be some good opportunities for orders. Here on the right chart, this is the new level of G Vernon's gas turbine. If we limit it to the U.S. market, the market share is higher than Miss Sibo. So, if you look at the new order amount for gas turbines in the first quarter of this year, it increased by 113%. Based on gigawatts, looking at this, we can anticipate that there will be many gas power plant constructions in the U.S. in the next 2 to 3 years. When it comes to orders, and now construction, which means now build it, how long does it take until the actual ground is broken? Depending on how well the site is prepared, it will vary, but typically, since projects usually arise where the site is already prepared, and also gas pipelines are already built nearby, it is natural that gas power plant projects will occur. So, they will select the site for the gas power plant and then place the order.

It takes about 2.5 to 3 years from ordering to completion of the internal turbine. This is because even for gas power plants, which are large in scale, it takes about 2 years to build. Of course, nuclear power plants take over 10 years, so it is much faster than that, but still, if the orders are placed vigorously now, they will continue to be completed from now on. It will be completed around 26 to 27 years from now. Therefore, related material companies are expecting that their performance will be somewhat affected in about 1 to 2 years. So, when it comes to gas power generation, it is essential to use such materials. This is not something that can be easily seen, so companies are actually increasing their orders a lot. In the case of domestic stocks, it is sensitive for me to mention specific stock names, but if you search, you can find them in about 10 places. This is a very clear signal, so you must definitely look into it.

Yes, especially now in the Biden administration, the approval for new LNG export projects has been suspended. But if you think back to the Trump era, they completely relaxed environmental regulations in the United States to boost oil and gas production in certain regions. If Trump is elected, regulations on the gas industry are likely to be significantly eased, which could lead to more activation in this sector. Even if Trump is not very supportive of renewable energy, there is no reason to oppose gas-related matters. Moreover, in fact, gas can be considered a clean energy source if processes like carbon capture are implemented. In Europe, natural gas has been recognized as clean energy when carbon capture is applied. Unlike coal, which doesn't have a clear solution, gas is seen as a viable alternative. Therefore, it is not necessary to completely reject this.

I think I can explain this. This is the installation amount of utility solar in the United States. The dark blue represents the forecast data from the U.S. EIA, the Energy Information Administration, and the orange is the forecast from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BNEF. The BNEF forecast for this year is 28 gigawatts, while the one reported to the Energy Information Administration is 36 gigawatts. However, as I mentioned earlier, due to a shortage of grid capacity, it's unlikely that all 36 gigawatts will be installed, and some may be delayed to the following years. The graph shape itself will probably become more similar to BNEF's. There is a higher possibility that more will be installed than BNEF's forecast. This is the current situation we are observing. First Solar's stock price has dropped significantly, but in fact, when looking at the fundamentals, there was no reason for it to drop. So, I believe that these things could actually be opportunities. That's how I cautiously think about it in relation to solar energy.

You've updated it like this, so now, what will be the medium to long-term power mix in the United States? I brought this capture directly from the largest nuclear operator in the United States, Constellation Energy. This is the recent data from that company. If you look, in the future, the wind power proportion will increase, and the solar power proportion will also increase. This industrial trend cannot be changed. Anyway, since the power market in the United States is privatized, the president alone cannot change it. Therefore, the increase in wind and solar power is almost guaranteed. In the case of gas, the proportion of this company is expected to decrease a bit. But recently, looking at the procurement trends of companies like Miss C, I think it will at least be maintained. Since coal is not the answer, decreasing it is correct.

The main business of the nuclear company is that it is a nuclear company, but the proportion of nuclear power is just maintained. However, maintaining the proportion means that it is increasing, but there are not many new constructions, and most of them are mainly focused on extending the lifespan of aging power plants. It seems that the current focus is on extending the lifespan of these power plants, but the lack of new constructions is a problem. As I briefly mentioned earlier, if you see here, nuclear power is in red. If you look, there have been many instances of nuclear decommissioning, and this year, only 1.1 gigawatts of new installations are planned. Due to the high construction costs, nuclear new constructions are quite stagnant even in the United States. Therefore, there is a need to boost this. If you look at the current situation of the U.S. nuclear industry, in 2014, a report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration came out, and I just captured that report. Let's move on to 2015.

Let's see, in the United States, most nuclear power plants, as of 15 years ago, had a lifespan of about 30 to 40 years. However, assuming that most of them undergo lifespan extension, by the year 2030, their age would mostly be around 40 to 60 years. Typically, nuclear power plants are designed to last about 40 years, but in reality, with some parts replaced and maintenance, they can operate for another 40 years. Therefore, ultimately, in the United States, it is a must to extend the lifespan. During the lifespan extension process, it is crucial to pay attention to the replacement of various components. Now, what needs to be noted is the construction of a disposal facility because although the nuclear power plants have their own nuclear waste storage facilities, they will be full after 40 years. Then, a disposal facility needs to be built elsewhere to move and store the nuclear waste. You can't just put nuclear waste in any container, so it needs to be encapsulated and stored safely for a long time.

Specialized containers called casks are needed for lifespan extension projects, and as the number of these projects increases, the demand for casks will also significantly rise. Therefore, many companies in South Korea are developing technologies related to casks. Some companies are collaborating with European or American companies to develop technologies. However, it is anticipated that the cask market may become saturated in a few years. In relation to nuclear power plants, instead of discussing whether to build new ones or not, a more realistic topic is the extension of the lifespan of existing plants. When extending the lifespan, unavoidable equipment called cast tests are required. It is said that the cost of extending the lifespan of an old nuclear power plant is only about 50% of building a new one because only a few parts need to be replaced. This is why advanced countries tend to extend the lifespan of aging nuclear power plants rather than building new ones.

Extensions are almost an option that must be adopted as a necessity. However, not every country can easily extend their territory. The chart you are looking at shows the population density of major countries. In the case of South Korea, the population per square kilometer is 530. In fact, no matter how far you go in South Korea, even if you drive for about 30 minutes, you can see places where people live. However, in the United States, even if you drive all day, there are many places where you can't see hundreds of people. Therefore, the population density is 36 in the United States, 70 in Ukraine, and 100 in France. These countries all have in common that they are nuclear powers. So, it is relatively easier to extend territories in places with a lot of empty land. Therefore, it is advantageous to extend life expectancy. However, countries like South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, with small territories, find it challenging to extend their territories. Nevertheless, they consistently build extensions.

I believe there is a need to extend life expectancy. Why are we doing this in our land? It's only natural that there will be opposition like this in our neighborhood. It's too difficult to make a big deal. In the case of the United States, there would be no one to oppose even if it were done here. If it's built on federal government land in the middle of the desert, who would oppose it? Since there are no people living there right away, there would be no opposition. So, you can see there are some differences. Yes, the U.S. has plenty of land, which is nice. It's a bit like a gangster, so in the end, even if we extend life expectancy, it's not enough. Ultimately, to promote the construction of new nuclear power plants, what is needed is, in my opinion, in the United States, two things are needed to promote the construction of new nuclear power plants. First, there should be additional subsidy policies, and second, the commercialization of SMRs, Small Modular Reactors.

I believe it is necessary to talk about the additional subsidy policy. In fact, not many people are aware that a production tax deduction for atoms was newly established within the IRA in September 2023. So, last September, what it means is that starting from 2024 until 2032, a tax deduction of up to $15 for nuclear electricity production megawatts will be provided. Therefore, existing nuclear power plants will likely extend their lifespan as their profitability improves. Thus, policies that promote lifespan extension have been approved. However, if nuclear power plants are developed now, it will go beyond 2032. Therefore, it is not a policy that can promote nuclear power plant construction. So, what is ultimately needed? It is to provide tax deductions for investments. For instance, if the construction cost of a nuclear power plant is 10 trillion won, then a tax deduction of 30%, which is 3 trillion won, will be provided for the construction cost.

Tax deductions applicable to solar or offshore wind power are similar, so I think tax deduction systems of this kind should probably emerge. Therefore, I believe that tax deduction systems of this level are likely to come out whether it be the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. Because starting from supporting loans to increasing nuclear power threefold by 2050, such goals are being set. Eventually, nuclear power will also have additional tax deduction systems like this. The timing of that is now crucial, and secondly, it's technological advancement. In the case of large-scale nuclear power plants, they are so expensive and take more than 10 years to build, making it impossible to respond quickly. The costs are also too high. However, with Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), dividing a 1GW nuclear power plant into modules inevitably leads to higher generation costs. But the important thing is that the cost of constructing a single unit is small.

Because of that, accessibility improves. It might be a bit difficult to build a large power plant next to the AI data center, but small nuclear power plants can be built easily. So, ultimately, it is important for small nuclear power plants to be commercialized. In fact, the U.S. company, NuScale Power, was considered the most advanced in the SMR market. The company's first project was abandoned in November 2023. Eventually, as the expected cost of generation continued to rise, customers withdrew, leading to the abandonment of the first project. Therefore, the sentiment towards SMRs deteriorated a bit. However, recently, a company called TerraPower, founded by Microsoft's Bill Gates, has started an SMR construction in June this year. The project began, and TerraPower aims to complete its SMR by 2030. What's unique is that conventional nuclear power plants use water as a coolant, but...

We will use liquid sodium here. It is expected that the cooling efficiency will be much better when using liquid sodium. The reason why the change in the cooling method is important is because in recent years, you may have heard a lot of news about severe droughts in Europe and the United States. That's right, especially in the case of France, if you search for the French nuclear map on Google, you will find that about 70% of French nuclear power plants are located inland or use cooling water from rivers. Nowadays, France also suffers from severe droughts every summer. There is a shortage of cooling water. That's why there is a lot of news about the reduced operation rate of French nuclear power plants every summer. Nuclear power plants need to be installed where there is plenty of cooling water, but if they are only built by the sea, it is difficult to transmit electricity to inland areas. It's quite challenging.

So, in the end, the cooling method is important, and if we use liquid sodium for cooling, the cooling efficiency improves, making the site conditions more flexible. That's why I consider this TerraPower SMR important. However, since it will be completed by 2030, it will take a few years to run and verify stability before it starts spreading globally. So, it will take some time, which is a bit unfortunate. Nuclear power is an industry that will definitely work, but it will inevitably take some time. In France, there is a water shortage, and now droughts are occurring by the riverside, causing a lack of water for cooling the nuclear power plants, leading to operational issues. Water scarcity has become a problem now due to climate change. Water scarcity is mentioned a lot everywhere. I'm curious about this, how do they use liquid sodium for this?

So, this liquid sodium, actually, I'm not from a science background, so technically, I don't know the details, but it is said to have a much higher boiling point than water. It vaporizes at a much higher temperature, so it is much more efficient in generating heat. Therefore, it is said that using liquid sodium as a coolant improves the cooling efficiency compared to just using water. So, relatively, it makes the environment a bit more comfortable since there is no need to be close to the sea or a river. Understood. The company that utilizes this is TerraPower. Anyway, suddenly it reminds me of a science class. In the old days, in science class, there were discussions about sodium, how many times it reacts, and all that stuff. Anyway, using liquid sodium is a much more efficient method than using water as a coolant.

The point you made is that in order for a new nuclear power plant to start operating in the United States, more subsidies need to be provided, or technological advancements need to occur. From the perspective of technological advancement, there are still various issues with SMRs, and although there are expectations for TerraPower, it needs to be observed further. So, if we summarize what has been discussed so far, in Trump's All In podcast, my opinions are that as AI increases, ultimately, there will be an increase in nuclear power plants, which is true for the energy industry. Also, emphasizing the importance of gas, it is expected that the gas power generation in the United States will increase in the future, as new orders are already on the rise. I also believe that this increase is appropriate as it is the most abundant source of energy and reduces carbon emissions.

There is no reason not to celebrate Clean Energy Day if you ask me. You may dislike renewable energy, but looking at the changes in the energy industry, it seems difficult to avoid embracing renewable energy. This year and next year, the largest growth in the U.S. power plants is expected to be in utility solar power. The need for nuclear power is unquestionable, but the issue is that additional systems like tax deductions are necessary to promote new constructions, or small modular reactors (SMRs) need to be commercialized now. Both of these are not likely to happen in the short term. So, it seems that we need to take a longer breath in the nuclear power sector. After attending Team Leader Kim Sik's seminar, I organized my thoughts. First of all, solar power may be irritating now and may continue to be so in the future due to what Trump is saying, but there is no alternative to it.

The thought of going anyway first came to mind. Secondly, I found it very helpful that you talked in detail about gas. So, I think it's a good point to change your perception of gas when you invest, and it's also a good idea to look for companies related to gas. As for nuclear power plants, well, whether it's building new ones, there are various reasons such as subsidies or technical issues, but it's essential to extend the lifespan of these aging nuclear power plants. It's also important to look into what goes into that. You mentioned about Cask like this, and through the Trump story, you gave us very important clues in finding investment ideas. Thank you. As Trump stories are likely to come up more and more in the future, it can be a bit annoying and frustrating.

There might be a lot, but we need to focus here so that we can invest without wavering. After watching the debate between Trump and Biden, you rushed here in a hurry to update the situation. Thank you very much to the team leader Kim Hyesuk for that. We will greet you again in the next session. Thank you.

트럼프 당선되면 에너지 주식 폭망한다? 정확하게 알려드립니다⎮삼성액티브자산운용 김효식 팀장 [풀영상]

효친님들을 위한 바이사이드 애널리스트 이효석 매니지스트입니다. 
운용 경험을 살려서 변화된 세상에서 생존을 위한 투자전략을 리서치하고 있습니다.
비즈니스/광고/협업 문의 : contact@hs-academy.kr


트럼프 당선되면 에너지 주식 폭망한다? 정확하게 알려드립니다⎮삼성액티브자산운용 김효식 팀장 [풀영상]

Scripts