Just dig in on, for example, M&A hopes
around this new administration coming in 2025 and deals getting done.
Chips being supported or not supported as a sector.
What do you make of it? Well, let's start with M&A first.
And we do think that M&A will increase.

You know, you have pretty rigorous
merger guidelines passed by President Biden in 2023.
We reckon those will be undone under President-elect Trump.
And remember, they had lowered the guidance threshold at a company being
seen as anti-competitive.

So we do think it's going to be a
friendlier environment for regulation, a friendlier environment for M&A, and
expect that animal spirits, M&A and IPOs will pick up in 2025.
So we think this is one of the positives

coming from Trump.
Just quickly on the CHIPS Act and Intel, are we back on the wrong horse there?
I mean, this is supposed to create jobs. They just laid off 15% of the workforce.
And I kind of look at and think, Nvidia

didn't get any money from the CHIPS Act
and it's actually doing a pretty darn good job of actually supplying the chips
industry. So I think this is a program is hard to
change and removes these legislative programs.
It's not a program that President-elect

Trump favors very much.
I think he called it a really bad program.
So stay tuned on Nvidia, though. They basically get TSMC and other chip
makers to produce. This is all about on shoring and making
sure that chips can be made in the

United States.
When you're looking at a video and indeed its exposure, whether it be
selling into China or indeed depending on a supply chain that is in many ways
related to Taiwan. How does that factor into an investment
thesis?

Well, as you know, Trump has said
tariffs, the most beautiful word in the English language.
So, you know, maybe Trump just use some tariffs here on TSMC because that would
encourage them to think about it in

part, by the way, they were part of the
CHIPS Act as well. So they did receive some subsidies
there. But, you know, that might encourage them
to accelerate production in the United States.
Now, how will Nvidia respond?

I don't know which 74% gross margins and
it seems like insane demand and Jensen Huang's words it seems like they're just
going to raise prices. So you know if we get some tariffs on
TSMC which I wouldn't be surprised, I

just think Infineon will end up passing
that on to its demand hungry customers. It feels like you've got some nuance
about which horses you should back, but more broadly, the winners are likely to
continue winning into the next

administration.
Is that what you're articulating? Is it still good to be long, big tech
here? I mean, let's just talk about a little
bit of the winners in semiconductor. You know, at the end of the day,
Nvidia's clearly in pole position,

monopoly position, I mean, more demand
and supply, but competition is coming. Remember, 40% of their datacenter
customers are also trying to compete with them.
Amazon's coming pretty close here in developing a chip.
Now I understand it's 40% cheaper.

Not really sure.
The performance benchmarks with respect to training and inference, they haven't
been published and it's not clear it's in production mode, so to speak.
So let's see what happens. And of course, to a certain extent, AMD
and Intel are fast trying to be

competitors as well.
So competition is on the way and we should expect to see more of that.
You know, people are looking at the price of video chips.
The fact that they can't get access and are trying to diversify their supply
sources.

And that makes sense, right?
So we do expect competition to come as we look forward now.
I don't say this is a key one. I think in video should have another
blockbuster quarter. Certainly they were pretty clear about
it.

They expect revenues to be up 70% in the
next quarter and they normally beat that number.
So let's see where that comes out. Customers look at the price of the
chips. Investors look at the price of the stock
with Nvidia trading at 46 times

future earnings.
Many have been perhaps taking bit of profit when you're looking at Tesla
that's trading at 141 times future earnings.
What do you make about the optimism baked into that stock post-election?
Well, Tesla is clearly a special child at the
moment, given the relationship between

Elon Musk and Trump.
And, you know, and these stocks, these Magnificent Seven, you know, on average
they're at about 35 times forward earnings at the moment.
And that means makes them very vulnerable to disappointment.
Right.

So one of the themes that we've had on
this year is, you know, tech is fine. We believe in China.
You need to diversify beyond just those Magnificent Seven technology shares that
have fueled the market's advance.

And we think midcap in particular,
trading at about 13, 14 times earnings up close to 10% already this month is an
excellent beneficiary of larger potentially corporate tax rate cuts,
manufacturing renaissance and a better

outlook for growth in the United States.
So there are other things you can do and diversify away from tech, by the way,
where earnings are expected to decelerate in the so-called Magnificent
Seven as we head into 2025, where

they're supposed to accelerate in the
rest of the market. And so I think that's a really nice
way to still look to return, participate, but protect some of that
valuation. Potential downside risk in tech.

M&A Will Increase Under Trump: AlTi Tiedemann's Curtin

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M&A Will Increase Under Trump: AlTi Tiedemann's Curtin

M&A Will Increase Under Trump: AlTi Tiedemann's Curtin

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