The overseas expansion of the United States and Vietnam is expected to become more pronounced. Risk factors include the increasing cost of sales and a potential decrease in capital investment due to future economic uncertainties. That concludes the KB Research morning meeting for October 2nd. Thank you.

There is a high possibility that a selective approach is needed when purchasing short-term bonds within a year. The credit spread curve is widening, with default premiums added to the short-term segment. The short-term spread is expected to narrow. For more details, please refer to the report. 

The Bank of Korea has now released data on financial stability, which includes various scenarios. First, assuming a rate cut, the analysis covers the impact on housing prices and household debt. According to this analysis, after the cleanup of troubled projects in real estate private funds, authorities are considering an additional policy mix of accommodative monetary policy, specifically regarding DSR regulations, and additional capital buffers for savings banks and mutual financial institutions.

It is expected that the ongoing major markets will record relatively good returns. The Asian stock markets are experiencing increased volatility. In the case of the Chinese stock market, recent announcements regarding monetary policy have led to some disappointment in the market. However, the Chinese stock market is showing a significant upward trend. The Chinese stock market, particularly with a larger proportion of consumer stocks, is anticipated to continue its upward trajectory if consumer spending improves, as confirmed by data from the National Day holiday.

Additionally, the new Prime Minister has maintained a stance supporting the normalization of monetary policy, which includes advocating for interest rate hikes. This aspect is expected to act as a bearish factor for the Japanese stock market. In India, as an emerging market, it plays a competitive role alongside China; thus, when the Chinese stock market rises, it can have implications for India's market as well.

China, which had not announced any fiscal stimulus measures, is now directly announcing economic stimulus policies through its finances. Meanwhile, Japan is experiencing an expansion in the decline as the new ruling party strengthens its stance on normalizing monetary policy. The U.S. economy is in the process of a soft landing, and as interest rates are being lowered, the global capital flow is in a very favorable environment for moving from developed countries to emerging markets. Considering multiple levels and policy momentum, there may be a concentration of buying in Chinese stocks. Since both India and China are adopting a switching strategy for global capital, if the preference for Chinese stocks increases, we expect India to take a breather for the time being. If Chinese stocks continue to surge, many may wonder what and when to buy. China is announcing its economic stimulus measures using fiscal policies, starting with a package of monetary policies.

There has been a significant increase in orders this year. Consequently, the stock price has shown a strong rise, but we need to reflect on the aspects that have not performed as well. External factors beyond the environment and leading indicators are holding us back, and I believe that the issue of casting and its subsidiary is the most problematic. I will elaborate on why the casting returns are problematic. The EPC industry has a history of fluctuations. In the past, there have been many instances where cash flow and profit mismatches have left investors with scars, making it difficult for them to have faith in equity investments in this industry. Additionally, considering that it is not an industry that requires large-scale factories, the only way for investors to trust the quality of profits is through shareholder returns. Samsung ENA successfully navigated the profit tunnel round over six years ago and nearly achieved 1 trillion won last year.

Despite generating operating profits, the lack of shareholder returns is somewhat negative for investors. I would like to mention that the recent decline is excessive, and for a meaningful upward trend, shareholder returns are essential. I believe the third-quarter results will fall short of market expectations, reflecting the impact of the strong won. Next, I will discuss the report on the REIT company, IREIT Global. Its location is overwhelming, and based on a 7% dividend yield, I think it is one of the REITs where investors can feel comfortable. I will maintain the target stock price at 6,500 won. The refinancing situation, which was viewed most negatively, has risen significantly; this is due to considering future interest rate possibilities by applying variable rates. Following the refinancing in May, interest costs have increased, making a reduction in dividends unavoidable.

Significant progress can be noted, and regarding on-device AI, it is expected that starting next year, there will be a full-scale expansion of services, so I maintain a positive outlook on Samsung Electronics, BH, and semiconductor sectors. Today, I will present the final material, an IPO brief. This material concerns the company called SIS, which was established in 2014 and provides intelligent robotic solutions and 3D inspection solutions as an AI robotics company. The business is mainly divided into intelligent robotics and 3D inspection solutions. In the case of the intelligent robotics part, it provides automation solutions not only for simple and repetitive processes but also for non-standard processes. The 3D inspection solution plays a role in providing solutions through the development of 3,000 shapes. In the hardware segment, it currently possesses robotic vision sensing technology, and in software...

It seems that there is a possibility of demand arising. The real estate project financing issues are currently being maintained at a certain level of capital adequacy. As we approach the third quarter, from mid-November, related risks may resurface. Until now, there has been a carry incentive due to high short-term interest rates in the credit market. However, as I mentioned, from around mid-November to the end of the year, there is a possibility that credit risk premiums will become more pronounced. Therefore, the short-term spread within one year is expected to widen, meaning prices will fall, while mid- to long-term spreads will relatively contract, leading to a flattening of the yield curve. Next, we will discuss investment strategies for the Asian stock market. This is Park Soo-hyun, a researcher. Hello, I am Park Soo-hyun from the Asia market team. The volatility of the Asian stock market is increasing following the pandemic.

Although there may be a short-term upward trend, we do not anticipate a significant downward trend in the market due to the increase in profits. Please refer to the report for more details. Next, I will discuss the order of industrial and corporate analysis, specifically regarding Samsung ENA and Witz Co., Ltd. This is Jun-moon Jang, a researcher. Let me begin with the performance preview of Samsung ENA. The target stock price presented at the investment meeting is 3,500 won, which is a 99% reduction compared to the previous estimate. Samsung ENA's stock price has been quite sluggish recently. We often mention that this company's stock price has a strong correlation with oil prices and backlog orders. From the company's perspective, backlog orders serve as a leading indicator for fundamentals, while oil prices act as a leading indicator for the market. Given the unfavorable oil prices, it is somewhat natural for the stock price to be underperforming.

If we track it down, we expect about 10%, and among those 10% funds, it ranks somewhat in the upper tier. Lastly, if we analyze the style characteristics of the Value Up Index, it is expected to have low price-to-earnings ratios while offering dividends and growth rates similar to the market. Regarding the Value Up Index, we have presented a total of four stock strategies: two within the index and two outside the index. 

First, within the index, we suggested stocks that show both dividends and profit growth. The exchange is also paying attention to companies that can increase shareholder returns, but investors tend to prefer companies that are already good at returning capital to shareholders. Therefore, we filtered stocks that show an increase in performance while also providing significant dividends. 

As for the second stock within the index, we looked for stocks with a large trading volume that could have a significant supply-demand effect due to capital inflows. This includes material companies and...

I believe we are gradually forming a bottom. For detailed information, please refer to the report. Next, I will present materials related to quantitative analysis. I am Kim Min-kyu, a researcher. Hello, I am Kim Min-kyu, in charge of the content. Today, I will examine the characteristics of the Value-Up Index and consider potential opportunities that can be found both inside and outside the index. First, I have analyzed a few characteristics necessary for the operation of the Value-Up Index. The Value-Up Index has a significant weighting in sectors such as semiconductors, automobiles, and finance. Since the performance of these sectors will greatly influence the overall results, tracking their returns shows that the only period in the last ten years when these sectors performed strongly together was in the second half of last year and the first half of this year. Additionally, regarding the tracking error of the Value-Up Index compared to the KOSPI,

The possibility of a full-scale escalation has generally decreased. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has fallen, reflecting the instability in the Middle East and the weak interest rates in the Eurozone. Meanwhile, the dollar has risen as the preference for safe assets strengthens. Oil prices surged by over 2%. Let's highlight some key points. With the earnings report of Samsung Electronics approaching next week, the company's global workforce reduction plan and Macquarie's downgrade report could pose some concerns. Additionally, foreign media reports suggest that Iran is preparing for a second attack, and Israel is also participating in retaliatory actions, leaving fears of a full-scale conflict unresolved. As a result, the preference for safe assets has increased, making it inevitable to digest selling pressure. In particular, the domestic stock market faces additional burdens with another holiday approaching. There is also the upcoming TV debate involving the U.S. vice presidential candidates this morning.

October 1, Wednesday, we will begin the Gabby Research morning meeting. First, let's look at the market closing summary from the previous day. This is Kim Ji-won from the research team. Hello, I am Kim Ji-won from the research team. I will summarize the stock market trends from the previous day. On the 30th, the domestic stock market closed lower, with a prevailing wait-and-see sentiment ahead of the long holiday. After starting higher, driven by attention to the easing inflation indicated by the U.S. PCE results for August, the domestic market turned downward as selling pressure emerged from semiconductor, financial, and pharmaceutical biotech stocks. The number of declining stocks outweighed the number of advancing stocks, reflecting a weakened investment sentiment. With significant events scheduled for the week, including U.S. employment and manufacturing indicators and the vice presidential candidate debate, the domestic market is preparing for potential volatility ahead of the holiday. Additionally, there are mixed results among secondary battery stocks.

The company possesses AI models for recognizing and making judgments about objects, as well as technology for generating and controlling robot motions. To summarize our performance, last year's revenue was 7.7 billion won, with an operating loss of 10 billion won. As of the first half of this year, the cumulative revenue stands at 2 billion won, with an operating loss of 7.6 billion won. 

Regarding our checkpoints, we have established stable partnerships due to having a large number of SI investors, and we also possess several top-tier clients, which we believe has created a solid reference base and entry barriers. We are currently preparing to enter the bio and FMB markets, and we anticipate that our overseas expansion will gain momentum through the establishment of our U.S. subsidiary and a representative office in Vietnam. 

Lastly, I would like to briefly mention the public offering price range, which is set at 20,000 won for both the upper and lower limits.

It seems that this level of continuity will be maintained. For the time being, Samsung Electronics is expected to lead marketing and the introduction of new technologies primarily with the Galaxy S series. Especially in Korea, as the application of on-device AI is anticipated, it is forecasted that they will refocus their strategy around the S series. On the other hand, Apple launched the iPhone 16 on September 22. Therefore, it was inevitable that sales would be sluggish in August. However, initial reactions to the iPhone 16 are now being confirmed, and so far, the response has been somewhat lukewarm. It seems that only India is showing a slightly better atmosphere, but overall, there are limited hardware changes, and the main marketing point is Apple's intelligence service, which is still not available outside of the United States.

The value-up index is characterized by a relatively low level of risk, showing similar levels of dividends and growth as the market. We analyzed two opportunities within the index and two opportunities outside of it. Within the index, the first opportunity is stocks that are experiencing a combination of strong performance and growth. The second opportunity consists of stocks with lower trading volumes compared to their index weight, which could have a significant impact on market demand.

Outside the index, there are companies with the potential for value-up that are not included in the index, primarily in the financial sector, which could be viable candidates through additional disclosures. The second opportunity consists of stocks that may have a higher likelihood of being included in the index as they reflect this year's performance.

Now, let's move on to the materials regarding the credit market. This is from researcher Jeong Young-joo. In the financial stability report released last week, the focus was on strengthening soundness policies, and pivots are being made based on this.

Generally, the reversal period of about two quarters has been similar to the underperformance during that time. This month, we recommend sectors related to the value-up program and China's stimulus measures. We believe that stocks with momentum are positive, so we have chosen finance and materials. 

As for the stock proportion for October, we present a slight increase. Although there was a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, we still find it challenging for the index to break through the 2,700-point resistance that we have been discussing. To break through, there needs to be a change in fundamentals and corporate performance, which we expect to confirm around the middle of the fourth quarter. 

In terms of sectors, we suggest finance and materials, which are expected to benefit from the value-up program and China's stimulus measures. As for semiconductors, we are currently...

The situation has deepened, and with the appointment of measures to limit damage, the decline has somewhat recovered by closing. The U.S. port union has resolved to strike for the first time in 47 years and began the strike on the 1st. It is important to pay attention to the impacts of inflation and supply chain disruptions. Many indicators were released; the ISM manufacturing PMI stood at 47.2, continuing a recession phase for six consecutive months, and job openings increased to 840,000 compared to the previous month and expectations. By sector, energy and defense stocks showed strength, reflecting geopolitical instability in the Middle East, while a sell-off centered on tech stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft intensified, leading to a decline in indices. The Chinese stock market was closed for the National Day holiday the previous day. On the 30th, thanks to economic stimulus measures, the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices surged by approximately 8% and 10%, respectively, amid military conflicts in Israel.

One of the biggest characteristics of this company is that it has set aside profits accumulated in the past to be used for future dividends. Since it has already accumulated these profits, it has stated that it will use them as retained earnings for dividends in the future, which minimizes the possibility of fluctuations in dividend payments. In the first half of the year, the dividend per share was 186 won, while in the second half, it is expected to be between 170 and 180 won. We believe that this semi-annual dividend will be realized within that range. Our anticipated dividend yield until 2025 is expected to be around 6.9 to 7%. The biggest attraction is that, despite the limitations of being a retail REIT, all five assets are located in the Seoul metropolitan area. I believe this land has high potential for future utilization. For more details, please refer to the report. Regarding Samsung 2, we present an investment briefing with a target stock price of 35,000 won, which reflects a 9% decrease.

I am paying attention to interest rate trends and the earnings season. Other issues, such as the U.S. presidential election and value programs, will also become clearer around that time. I believe that after testing the resistance line three times, we will complete this resistance line test. After the second phase of the earnings season, I anticipate a bubble rally in 2025. This does not simply mean a strong rally; it literally refers to a bubble, meaning that prices will escalate based on valuations. The basis for this is the excess liquidity, and considering the terms mentioned after the FOMC, the possibility of excessive easing is gradually increasing. In terms of sectors, I addressed the semiconductor adjustments during the earnings season. Adjustments in semiconductors during the earnings season are not new; they happen repeatedly. I see the current position as forming a bottom similar to past levels.

I will ensure that the semiconductor item management maintains its focus. This year is being evaluated as a transitional period for on-device AI, and there are only about two to three months left. Starting next year, it is expected that significant service expansion will take place, and the positive outlook on device sales is anticipated to have a favorable impact.

In August, global smartphone sales recorded a 3% increase compared to the same period last year, but a 1% decrease compared to the previous month. It seems that the market is taking a breather ahead of the iPhone 16 launch. In terms of individual companies, Samsung Electronics is experiencing sluggish sales of foldable phones, while Apple, as mentioned, is also showing a pause in sales ahead of the iPhone 16 launch. Even after the release of the iPhone 16, sales have not been notably impressive. Additionally, Xiaomi...

I will now present the information. Ahead of the iPhone 16 launch, it has been evaluated that there has been a bit of a pause. Compared to the same period last year, there has been a 3% growth, but a 1% decrease compared to the previous month. Regionally, the atmosphere has not changed significantly. The United States and India continue to show sluggish performance, while Europe and China have shown growth compared to last year. Notably, the situation includes a sharp drop in Apple’s shipments ahead of the iPhone 16 launch in September, as well as Samsung's new foldable phone failing to see a rebound. Looking at the manufacturers, Samsung's foldable phone performance has been particularly noticeable. Although the term sluggish has been used, overall, there has been a slight decline compared to previous models, and a rebound is not expected.

The public offering amount is expected to be around 500 to 600 billion won, and a significant portion of this will be allocated for facility and operational funds, approximately 360 billion won, as well as around 80 billion won for debt repayment and research and development costs, among other funds. The anticipated market capitalization upon listing is estimated to be around 2.3 to 2.75 trillion won. For more details, please refer to the report. Thank you. 

Sys is an AI robotics company established in 2014 that provides intelligent robotic solutions and 3D inspection solutions. Last year's revenue was 76.4 billion won, and for the first half of this year, it is projected to be 19 billion won, which represents a 12% decrease compared to the same period last year. The operating loss is 7.5 billion won, indicating a continued deficit, with a net loss of 7.29 billion won. A key checkpoint is that SI investors are establishing stable partnerships and databases through companies like Coupang, GS Retail, and SK Telecom.

어이는 수익 정 하에 따른 감소를 반영한 것입니다. 지금 두 가지가 우려 요인으로 보여지는데요. 첫 번째는 부진한 유가와 두 번째는 발주 시장의 불확실성입니다. 이에 대해 주조 하원이 저희가 중요하다고 판단하고 있는 EPC 산업의 특성상, 현재 주조하는 부제가 부담 요소로 작용하고 있다고 보고 있습니다. 크랩 투자의견은 바위와 목표 주가는 6,500원을 유지합니다. 투자 포인트는 두 가지인데요. 첫 번째는 안정적인 계약 구조 하에 선제적으로 현금 유보 전략을 통해 비교적 변동성이 낮은 배당금 유지가 상장 리들 중에서 가능할 것으로 보입니다. 두 번째는 무엇보다도 수도권에 위치한 토지 등의 실물 기초 자산의 활용도가 높기 때문이라고 판단하고 있습니다. 다음은 스마트폰 산업에 관한 자료입니다. 이창민 연구원입니다. 8월 스마트폰 출하 데이터가 나왔습니다.

The environment suggests that consumer stocks are likely to be favored significantly. Moving forward, the market is expected to focus on three key indicators: the National Day consumption data, the October manufacturing PMI, and the October CPI. If these three align with or exceed market expectations, the upward trend is projected to continue until the end of the year. In October, a rebound centered on consumer stocks, which have been sluggish for a long time, is anticipated. We maintain a preference for Hong Kong, MSCI China, and the mainland in that order. 

In Japan, the election of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) president has been concluded with the appointment of the new president. The president has mentioned the necessity of normalizing monetary policy from the campaign promises, and volatility is expected to increase until the new cabinet is fully formed before the general election. The president noted that the foundation in economic policy is weak, making the appointment of a new Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry crucial. Additionally, the approval rating for the LDP remains at an all-time low, which makes the results of the general election and the governing party's actions particularly significant.

I need your attention, thank you. Today, the first presentation material is the stock investment strategy for October. This is researcher Lee Hyun-taek. Hello, I am the stock strategy team at KB Securities. I will discuss the October stock strategy. The stock weighting for October is slightly increased. Although the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates by 50 basis points, nothing has changed yet. We need to wait for changes, which I believe will be confirmed after the middle of the fourth quarter. Around that time, I think the breakthrough in the gap will also be resolved. The strategy includes a top-down approach focusing on the semiconductor sector, and I have suggested financials and materials as strategic sectors with momentum in China. The Federal Reserve has implemented a 50 basis point rate cut during the year. I believe these will have positive effects, but still, nothing has changed. We need time to understand what is changing. I think these fundamental changes are likely to be confirmed around the middle of the fourth quarter.

The relevant updates regarding the compatibility with the ChatGPT PT integration have not yet been implemented, and this is seen as a factor suppressing demand. However, since there are many users still using the previous model, this suggests a potential rebound in demand in the future. Ultimately, the extent to which Apple Intelligence can be utilized may change future demand forecasts. Additionally, in the Chinese market, Xiaomi has been quite notable, with cumulative sales up to August showing a 19% increase compared to the previous year. This improvement in consumer sentiment among Chinese consumers, along with a strategy focusing on a few models at different price points, is believed to have been effective. The smartphone component supplier Samsung Electro-Mechanics...

A situation has emerged where EcoPro BM fell by more than 3%, but it managed to maintain its position as the top company in the KOSDAQ market capitalization. Meanwhile, EcoPro M has continued its rally, rising for ten consecutive trading days. On the other hand, the exchange rate of the dollar to the won plummeted by over 10 won, dropping to the low 1300s, marking its lowest point since January. Throughout September, the domestic stock market faced challenges despite a series of positive developments, including the Federal Reserve's rate cut, Micron's strong performance, and China's economic stimulus announcement. Concerns about economic stagnation due to poor U.S. indicators and ongoing foreign capital outflows focused on the semiconductor sector led to a decline of over 3% in the KOSPI and about 0.49% in the KOSDAQ at the close. Looking at overseas markets, the U.S. stock market fell due to concerns over a full-scale war in the Middle East and port union strikes. Iran directly targeted Israel, raising fears of an escalation into full-scale conflict.

According to research, under the central bank's economic model, the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) is known as the systemic capital buffer (SCB). The SCB is designed to provide capital buffers for specific sectors, and its results are more effective in defending against economic recessions. Therefore, following the restructuring of non-performing projects, authorities are expected to modify their policy mix towards a more accommodative monetary policy, likely requiring additional capital buffers from banks and mutual financial institutions, in addition to the Debt Service Ratio (DSR) regulations. The issue of project financing (PF) is expected to be addressed while maintaining a certain level of capital adequacy in financial institutions, with a schedule for restructuring projects anticipated within the year. From a credit perspective, future trends in reversibility are expected to shift focus towards the profitability of construction companies and the verification of loan defaults. Related risks may become more pronounced around mid-November, coinciding with the disclosure of the third-quarter report for 2024. Until now, there has been a strong incentive for short-term carry trades, but from now until the end of the year, a surge in credit premiums is anticipated.

Financial stocks are included here, but since it is still unclear how much funding will actually come in, it would be good to consider this information as a reference only. Additionally, there are stocks worth noting outside the index. The first category includes stocks that are undervalued but are not included in the index. These stocks are likely to actively reveal their commitment to shareholder returns, so they are worth paying attention to, and most of them are financial stocks. 

The second category includes stocks that have not yet made it onto the list but have a high likelihood of being included once this year's performance is reflected. Of course, this is based on current consensus, but if they achieve the expected results and do not fall behind, these stocks have a strong chance of being included. Therefore, I believe they should be monitored ahead of next year's regular changes. For a detailed list of stocks, please refer to the materials provided. Thank you.

The value-up index has been announced, and by sector, semiconductor, automotive, and financial industries have a significant weight, while battery, software, chemicals, and shipbuilding have also substantial representation.

At that time, we examined the impact on the financial system. We presented two scenarios, both of which applied the benchmark interest rate, and differentiated macroprudential management measures through the strengthening of the DSR regulation. We also looked into the rise in apartment sale prices in Seoul, estimating a risky increase of about 10% at an annualized rate of 0.2%. Using data since 2000, we analyzed the shock response path of housing prices to a 25 basis point drop in loan interest rates. One year after a 25 basis point decrease, the increase in Seoul housing prices was estimated at +0.83 percentage points, and the increase in household debt growth rate for the same shock was +0.15 percentage points after one year. We mainly dealt with the forecast horizon for the next year and estimated that the impact range of the ongoing interest rate shocks is about one year as of October. Regarding additional policy responses, we will also consider the BIS and ECB.

The presence of the ruling party is expected to increase, leading to greater trust in the continuity of policies. Moving forward, it seems that the market will be more closely linked to Japan due to the global situation rather than Japan itself. In October, it is anticipated that the monetary policy meeting in India will announce the maintenance of the benchmark interest rate. The main factor is that the trajectory of India's economic indicators takes precedence over the pace of U.S. interest rates, and it is still too early to conclude that the CPI has entered a downward stabilization phase. It is assessed that the RBI is likely to decide on a rate cut after confirming the second-quarter GDP announced in November. Additionally, while the terms of three MPC members are set to expire in early October, there has yet to be an official announcement regarding their replacements, which may contribute to policy uncertainty. In a period marked by various uncertainties, a stable profit flow is crucial.

[Daily] 2024년 10월 2일 KB모닝미팅

KB증권의 유튜브 채널입니다^^
투자를 뚝딱, 깨비증권!
마블TV와 함께 즐거운 하루되세요^^


[Daily] 2024년 10월 2일 KB모닝미팅

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