Today, we have the author of The Great Bitcoin, Oh Tae-min, with us to share insights and investment ideas about cryptocurrency. Hello, author! 

Hello! 

The price volatility of Bitcoin seems to be quite significant these days. 

Yes, especially before the 2024 Bitcoin conference. It briefly went up due to the influence of Trump, but recently it has dropped sharply. How do you see the current situation? 

Well, in the short term, it always fluctuates. However, one thing is clear: when looking at the overall trend of the market, it's quite difficult to say that the market is wrong. But it is certain that Bitcoin is currently not aligned with the market. 

When has the market ever been wrong? In many cases, it reflects everything at once, which leads to a sudden surge.

You may remember that when the ETF was approved in January of this year, the price actually dropped. The market was clearly wrong. Then, suddenly in mid-February, there was a massive surge. As a result, people panicked and rushed in due to FOMO, so a correction is definitely coming. This is because not everyone is confident. This situation has continued until now, and recently, the price has been rising again due to the effect of former President Trump. The significance of this is quite large, and I will discuss it later, but I believe that the current undervaluation is accurate. So, the market is wrong; there has been a tremendous positive development, yet the price has fallen. This raises the question: is it time to accumulate Bitcoin now, or is it time to sell? Well, first of all, selling is definitely not an option. We should be accumulating.

Each person's situation varies, but those who have decided to invest in Bitcoin now may regret it later. It would be better to wait and observe until the end of this year. Thank you for your patience, writer. President Trump mentioned that he would consider Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, but some say he did not specifically call it a strategic reserve asset. So, what exactly is a strategic reserve asset? Well, it includes oil, right? Oil and other essential resources. Countries accumulate these reserves in preparation for situations like wars or when supply chains are disrupted by foreign entities. In our case, oil is the most important, and rice is also significant. The United States has been accumulating oil reserves to some extent, as most of its production is done internally.

As a country that exports food and produces it, I don't really know much about food. However, when it comes to gold, traditionally, oil and gold are significant. But I wouldn't say that Bitcoin is at that level. What I heard is that this was discussed at a conference where Bitcoin enthusiasts gather. So, the message varies slightly depending on the audience. When you go anywhere, you tailor the message to the audience. This message, in fact, emphasizes strategic significance rather than just focusing on recent events, like how Germany sold its Bitcoin. The government didn't mine Bitcoin; they just took it out. Even in drug transactions, those individuals are engaging in labor. Regardless, calling it a labor reward for the merchant is a bit misleading, considering the risks involved, right?

The labor they considered, right? They paid the price, but the government doesn't have that. The government just seizes it, so the government has no cost share. They sell it for a pittance. Until now, the U.S. has done the same, as shown by Germany. So, they are sending a message that they won't do that anymore. So, in your view, professor, does this mean that the U.S. government is not going to sell off seized assets like they used to, where they would just sell them off without much thought? 

Right now, the U.S. government has 200,000 of these assets. That's a huge amount. They hold the most, while China is in second place, but we don't know how much they have because it's not transparent. Germany was in third place, but they have likely dropped to fourth because they sold a lot. Now, the third place is taken by the UK.

It was taken from the Chinese, around 6,000 units. However, it is still more than the 200,000 units in the United States. The U.S. could lose more in the future. So, as a sailor, it is very meaningful to say that we will not sell this. Yes, this is a significant positive factor for the price of Bitcoin. It is indeed a huge positive factor. The recent crash was also due to Germany dumping their holdings, and when Mount Gox collapsed, it was similar. If you observe Bitcoin over the past ten years, you will notice that the U.S. has sold at critical moments. Yes, at crucial times. They tend to sell when the price momentum is rising and then sell off during the winter when prices are really low. They act irrationally, which is not typical behavior for a rational market participant. This is because if they sell at such a low price, we won't benefit much either, right? The cost price is...

It's because there isn't any. The government can just take it away since there is no cost. So, rather than interpreting this declaration as saying that Bitcoin is necessary for strategic warfare, we should consider that the audience at the conference was made up of Bitcoin enthusiasts. The message was more about assuring them that I will protect the Bitcoin they have. I do feel a bit disappointed compared to what we were expecting. Why are you disappointed? It's extremely important. Recently, in the community, people are saying that Bitcoin is becoming a strategic asset on the same level as oil and gold. I was hoping for a bit more from that. Well, he is not the president yet; he is a presidential candidate. Once he becomes president, things might change. Just that alone is a tremendous advancement, right, professor?

Then, regarding strategic reserve assets, as you mentioned, there hasn't been a significant impact on prices yet. However, you said this is a tremendous positive development. How significant is this event for Bitcoin? When compared to the Bitcoin spot ETF, is it bigger, similar, or smaller? What level of event are we talking about? Well, if Trump becomes president, then the Bitcoin ETF would be a much bigger event. If Trump were to become president, the ETF would indeed be a larger event. But it's uncertain whether Trump will become president, right? It could go either way. I think it's about a 60-40 chance, or maybe 70-30. Nevertheless, even when Trump was elected in 2010, people didn't think he would win, right? They were looking at Hillary. So now, Hillary...

Trump is predicted to be more overwhelming, but that's not necessarily the case. We don't know the future accurately, so we need to be cautious. However, if he were to become president, this would certainly be a topic of discussion. If he doesn't sell and instead hoards, then if he isn't selling within the U.S., what’s the point? There will be public opinion pushing for something useful to be done, right? The price is very high, and he holds a lot of it. 

The important thing is, if the government holds a lot of Bitcoin, it can adjust the price. The government can do this with gold as well. If the price drops, they can intervene. So, if there’s overheating in the market, they could threaten to sell, and they might actually sell. Then, if the price drops, they can use the cash from what they sold to re-enter the market.

Bitcoin can be revived, and then the price will be adjusted by institutions. Ultimately, governments will try to control the price of Bitcoin, especially in the case of the United States. About a year ago, when I interviewed you, you mentioned this context. Ultimately, Bitcoin will shift from individuals to institutions and governments, similar to gold, and they will control the price, right? Before that, many people were skeptical. I interpreted it that way. I said that people need to work part-time because this is an asset that super-rich individuals and governments covet. It’s not really for individuals. They are currently working on it. Originally, individuals shouldn't have access to such assets, right? Yes, that's correct. Since it's a new asset, individuals hold too much of it, so there seems to be a lack of opportunity. In that sense, there is an opportunity emerging, right?

Trump said to never sell Bitcoin. However, I see that many individual investors are currently looking at the Kimchi premium, which is around 0.8%. This indicates that there is a lack of interest among Koreans in Bitcoin these days. This suggests that many are either selling or have lost interest. If someone sells Bitcoin now, will they regret it a lot by the end of this year? I think so. I believe the price situation will be similar to when Bitcoin was sold at the end of January. Back in January, wasn't it around 60 million won? I think it was around 50 to 60 million won. But now, it has gone up to about 90 million won, which is almost double. So, I say never sell. However, this isn't just because President Trump knows something; it's simply that...

At conferences, everyone talks like this. I’ve been to conferences in the U.S., and it’s a show, a big show. It’s very exaggerated and elevated. When you come into that kind of atmosphere, the speakers are really hyped up in front of the audience. It gets wild, right? But after the conference ends, the prices don’t look good for Bitcoin. It seems like it goes up before, but the day before, I didn’t check the exact situation, but intuitively, after the conference, it didn’t seem good. Also, during the conference, one clear indicator of the situation is that they park Lamborghinis around, and since so many people gather, the prices get affected.

It must crash, right? Oh, I see. Flexing like that isn't a good thing. It means there's still some room left. Oh, I see. That seems to be a very good point. Yes, Professor, you wrote a book titled Bitcoin and the Dollar's Geopolitics. Is there a part of that book that you think should be revisited at this time? Oh, right. The title of the book is Bitcoin and the Dollar's Geopolitics. I think I misnamed it. Why do you say that? I made a mistake, and it's being discussed a lot. I'm currently getting criticized in the Bitcoin industry. So, since I'm going to be criticized anyway, I might as well just say it's about the dollar's geopolitics. It's simple. This book is indeed about the dollar's geopolitics. There isn't much discussion about Bitcoin in it.

In conclusion, the necessity of Bitcoin is not just about Bitcoin itself; it relates to the dollar's significance. It would be great for you to read this book, as its core theme is Trumpism. In parts one and two, I explain Trumpism in detail. I have also organized what is said about the lira from a geopolitical perspective. At the time this book was published, Trump was not president, yet I emphasized that Trumpism is not merely a phenomenon related to Trump; it is something that will persist for a long time. This is a variable we all need to understand. Therefore, I encourage you to read this book. Additionally, there is a book called Hillbilly Elegy by J.D. Vance, whom Trump nominated as vice president. If you read these two books, you will gain a clear understanding of the current state of American politics.

Ah, so that's why they behave that way and why things are like that. I can understand America now. Yes, the term hillbilly refers to the poor white people in the industrial and mining areas of the Midwest, near the Rocky Mountains. They were supporters of the Democratic vice president, right? But now they are leaning towards the Republican Party. It's strange that grandfathers and fathers voted for the Democrats, yet their grandchildren support Trump from the Republican Party. This phenomenon has been strong since a few years ago; it's very pronounced. Their stories are captured in the autobiography of Vance. The book itself is good, but while it is a social science book, it doesn't have much of a social science approach. However, my book, Dollar Geopolitics, organizes the background of what scholars have said about this. You know I dislike conspiracy theories, right? I don't bring them up.

I don't. I brought this from the literature of traditional scholars, so it is very well done. There are footnotes behind it. This book sells quite well. I recently heard that scholars are secretly buying it, and then they are using what the scholar said as a textbook. It's embarrassing to do it quietly. If it weren't for Bitcoin, it would have sold twice as much. The issue is that people are embarrassed because it is known as a Bitcoin book due to the title. I can relate to this because I also tried to expand my understanding of the geopolitical background by reading books written by geopolitical experts. They are very difficult; even the terminology is hard, and it feels like they write in a way that is not accessible to the general public. What economists write is now...

Now, this is not coming in. It's just an economic and microeconomic issue that I briefly agree with. We shouldn't underestimate the organization we need to do. When we specify what we need to read, there are an enormous number of topics laid out. Selecting a few from among them is also a skill. Insight is required for that. We need to extract what readers of our time can understand. Even when discussing our country's history, we can't cover everything about Silla or Goguryeo. We need to determine which parts to talk about that influence our current lives and investments. The Korean War must be included; the Vietnam War should be understood in tandem. This is because understanding the Vietnam War helps us understand Nixon, and understanding Nixon helps us understand why China is a partner of the United States.

Right now, we can understand how decoupling is happening between China and the United States. The core of all this is the U.S. rebalancing policy. It's the rebalance of the Obama administration, but the driving force behind it internally is Trump. This book focuses solely on that aspect and removes everything else, which saves readers a lot of time. Yes, yes, the sequence is clearly connected. So, this is how it is, and this is how it is. To understand today, we need a summary of international politics from the 1980s. I think I can say that I trained my ChatGPT to include many footnotes and sources, which I think is great. So, while writing this book, the author also discusses Bitcoin.

I was worried about what to say about otaku, so I struggled a lot with the footnotes. Scholars refer to footnotes because they provide reliable information. It's trustworthy because it's taken from credible books or papers. Instead of just believing my content, I want you to understand it first and then study using the footnotes. So, I suggest reading certain books, which becomes a reading list. These are recognized books. For instance, The Great Bitcoin can be seen as a textbook on Bitcoin. It includes technical concepts about blockchain, and those who explain Bitcoin say there's no need to look elsewhere. I wrote it, but we should treat it like economic journalism about Bitcoin.

I needed a book on the media, so I made it a bit thicker. It contains answers to all the questions you might be curious about. For example, I received an email recently asking, Mining lasts for 100 years; what happens after that? or What will happen when quantum computers come? There are also questions about whether mining will fail because it consumes too much electricity. All the answers to these questions are in that book. So, we have general questions that can be asked at a general level, and that book covers them all, right? I am currently inputting the entire book into ChatGPT for evaluation, and it's quite interesting to do this whenever I have some time. The evaluations keep coming in, and they are positive; everything is backed by evidence. However, it seems like it has some social intelligence as well. It feels like it knows what I like since it's my work. This is a story from my wife, but anyway, my writing is being evaluated positively, and what's truly surprising is...

What I mean is, I kept inputting my writing, and when asked to evaluate other questions or articles, the evaluation content I entered became my writing. I thought, Wow, it's smart and learns quickly. I was really surprised by the advancement of technology. The writer mentioned that among the Democratic House members, we need to set a vice presidential candidate and an SC chairperson who are pro-virtual assets. They said that’s how we can win the election. There seems to be bipartisan support for cryptocurrency-related discussions, with both Republicans and Democrats making supportive statements. I'm curious whether this is just a momentary reaction due to the election or if there has been a more sustained change compared to the past, indicating a shift in the U.S. political perspective on cryptocurrency. I read the Financial Times today, and the column discussed Bitcoin.

For ten years, I've been critical. These days, it seems like they are slightly acknowledging it, but there's still a bit of a twist because they know they were so wrong. According to the Financial Times, there are 40 million cryptocurrency investors in the United States. That's quite a large number. So even if it's just 4 million, you can't ignore that figure, right? You shouldn't ignore it. Because of that, the whole world is... So right now, it's... But honestly, I don't really believe that statistic. 40 million seems too high. Even if you combine all the altcoins, it might be possible to gather that number, but it still seems a bit off. I guess we should ask Chelsea about that. Anyway, the perception that there are 40 million people is important. It's a huge number. But even if it's exaggerated, even if it's just 4 million, you understand the U.S. electoral system, right? It totals up the people.

It's not about what we have, but rather that decisions are made every week. Most things are already set. No matter how much the Trump phenomenon blows up, I will never vote for Trump. That's true for California. And no matter what, even if Harris is running, Texas will not vote for Harris. 

That’s my perspective for now. So, if Harris's side wins, the Democratic Party has been somewhat anti-cryptocurrency in the past. However, now that cryptocurrency has grown so much, is there a possibility that they might change their stance? Perhaps Gary Gensler, the SEC chair, might shift things a bit, or the Democratic Party could adopt a more pro-cryptocurrency political stance to win. 

This raises a fundamental question: What kind of country is America? We talk about Trump, but if Trump becomes president, what will happen to America?

많이 바뀌지는 않을 거예요. 그러니까 그 얘기는 거꾸로 뭐냐면 해리스가 된다. 그래서 미국 극좌로 갈 수 있느냐? 해리스는 민주당에서 극좌 인물이잖아요. 극좌로 갈 수 있는 거 아니에요? 왜냐하면 미국은 대통령의 힘도 되게 제약이 되어 있고, 그다음에 각 주가 또 나름대로 주권을 갖고 있고, 그다음에 사법부가 세고, 사법부의 독립이라는 개념은 영국에서 나왔지만, 그게 실현된 건 영국이 아니라 미국이거든요. 그래서 사실은 우리가 생각해봐야 할 것은 트럼프가 레토릭을 화려했고, 트위터로 다 막 하고 했지만, 과연 트럼프가 끝나고 바이든이 왔을 때 사람들이 기대했던 변화가 생겼냐는 거죠. 바이든이 되면 옛날 동맹 국제 체제로의 전환, 그리고 뭐 이제 막 이상한 이민을 잘 받고, 그럴 줄 알았는데 사실 딱히 그렇지 않았어요.

변했냐 하면, 뭐 없는 것 같아요. 이미은 잘 받았죠. 어, 이미은 잘 받지만 공장 미구, 뭐 그죠. 그러니까 근본적인 변화는 없다. 우리가 민주당이 크립토에 대해서 부정적이라 하지만, 지금 암호 앞에 비트코인하고 이더리티는 전 민주당 정보에서 일어났다. 어, 그죠. 현물 승리는 그러네요. 진짜 그렇죠. 그러니까 말은 험악하게 해요. 음, 또 트럼프도 말은 험악하게 하고, 또 크립토에 대해서도 말은 호의적으로 하고. 음, 어 민주당도 뭐 말은 비에서 험악하게 했는데 실제는 좀 다르죠. 그러니까 미국은 틈 촘촘한 그 관료 시스템이라고 봐야 돼요. 아, 그래서 트럼프가 컨퍼런스 와서 이렇게 얘기했지만, 이것이 실행되는 데는 또 관료들이 엄청 뒷다리 잡는다. 뭐가 아니되옵니다, 뭐가 아니되옵니다 막 하겠죠. 고려해야 될 게 여러 가지가.

There will be, yes, the presidency is a position that determines the direction of priorities. It is not a position that is involved in everything. So, if we say that Bitcoin will be regarded as a strategic reserve asset, this does not mean that it will happen immediately just because Trump becomes president. It simply means that a direction has been set, and that is significant. What we need to focus on is this: Bitcoin has come this far. It has reached a point where such discussions are taking place. This has happened in just 10 years. Although Bitcoin has been around for 15 years, when I discovered it 10 years ago, it was truly nothing. When I mentioned that the U.S. would embrace Bitcoin, people in my circle laughed and scoffed at the idea. I have experienced all of that.

Because of that, it's going really well. So, I'm a living witness to how far we've come. Just recently, when the professor and I were doing a live broadcast about the approval of the Bitcoin ETF, I said, Wow, Bitcoin has now been recognized with the approval of the spot ETF. And now, we've taken another step forward in just a few months. The presidential candidates in the U.S. can't ignore the Bitcoin industry, right? Even though we've come this far, it holds tremendous significance. It really does. Alright, let's take a moment and continue our discussion.

비트코인 전략적 준비자산의 숨겨진 의미, 지금 가격으로 호들갑 떨지 마라, 지금 우리는 '판'이 뒤집히는 역사 속에 있다. 곧 큰 한방 온다 (오태민 작가 / 1부)

🌕 웅달과 함께 하는 "고래 돈공부" 모임
📌 네이버 카페 - https://rb.gy/nxu5i
📌 "고래 돈공부" 신청하기 - https://rb.gy/y0y0x

🌕 JUST READ and DO IT.
"웅달 책방"과 함께 읽고, 쓰고, 말하고,
나누는 삶을 실천해 보아요.

여러분들의, 무엇보다 건강, 경제적 자유,
그리고 자아실현을 응원합니다.

🌕 웅달
현) "웅달 책방" 운영 중
전) "체인지그라운드" 창업
카이스트 경영대학원 SE-MBA 졸업
연세대학교 경제학과 졸업

🌕 비즈니스 문의 :)
cclee9@naver.com


비트코인 전략적 준비자산의 숨겨진 의미, 지금 가격으로 호들갑 떨지 마라, 지금 우리는 '판'이 뒤집히는 역사 속에 있다. 곧 큰 한방 온다 (오태민 작가 / 1부)

Scripts