젊은 유권자 트렌드: 정치 지지의 성별 격차

젊은 남성의 공화당 지지율이 높아지면서 다가오는 선거에서 민주당에 큰 도전이 되고 있습니다.

### 젊은 남성의 정치적 선호도 변화와 2024년 선거
* 🗳 2023년 민주당을 지지하는 젊은 층의 비율은 **2005년 이후 처음으로 50% 아래**로 떨어졌으며, 젊은 남성의 공화당 지지율은 점점 더 높아지고 있습니다.
* 👨 젊은 남성은 **경제를 가장 중요한 이슈**로 꼽은 반면, 젊은 여성은 **낙태 권리에 더 집중**하고 있습니다.
* 📊 대학 학위가 없는 젊은 남성의 노동력 참여율은 감소한 반면, **대학 교육을 받은 여성의 노동력 참여율은 기록적인 87%**에 달합니다.
* 💰 젊은 남성은 **트럼프의 감세 연장을 더 지지**하는 반면 여성은 반대하고, 젊은 여성에 비해 **학자금 대출을 탕감하는 것에 덜 찬성**하는 것으로 나타났습니다.
* 👩 ⚖️ 젊은 여성 유권자의 **22%가 낙태를 가장 큰 이슈**로 꼽은 반면, 젊은 남성 유권자는 **3%에 불과**했습니다.
* 🔊 공화당은 젊은 남성층에 어필할 수 있는 메시지와 행사 출연으로 **젊은 남성층을 적극적으로 공략**하고 있는 반면, 민주당은 **여성에게 더 두드러지는 이슈**에 초점을 맞춰 메시지를 전달하고 있습니다.
* 📅 역사적으로 **젊은 여성은 젊은 남성보다 투표율이 높**지만, 박빙의 선거가 예상되는 만큼 민주당은 최대한 많은 표를 끌어모아야 할 것입니다.
* 🤔 공화당의 과제는 이러한 젊은 남성 지지자들이 **다가오는 선거에서 실제로 투표에 참여**하도록 동원하는 것입니다.

- [Narrator] In 2008, 58% of young people leaned Democratic. In 2012, 53%. And in the last two major election years, that percentage held steady at 55%. But in 2023, that number dipped below 50% for the first time since 2005. And you'll notice right here, they started to lean more Republican. And that's partly because of one specific group, young men. Young men have increased their support of the Republican Party from 35% to 48%, a 13 percentage point increase in just seven years. And this is a new trend. While 2020 exit polls show that young men backed Biden by 15 percentage points, a February 2024 Wall Street Journal poll found they favored Trump by 14 percentage points. And this loss of young male voters is a major issue for the Democratic party going into November. The question now, can Kamala Harris bring some back?

(crowd cheering) Here's what's driving young men to support Republicans, and what it could mean for the presidential election to come. - Make America great again! - When we ask young voters, What issue is most important to you when you go to cast a vote? Among young men, it's the economy. Among young women, it's abortion. - [Narrator] 17% of men say the economy is the most important issue, followed by democracy and immigration. Whereas for young women, the top issue is abortion, by a lot. - Why is this happening? Well, we put the reasons into two different buckets. One is the life experiences that young men and young women are having. Those life experiences are diverging. - [Narrator] Young men without a college degree have seen the greatest decline in labor force participation. Meanwhile, a record 87% of college-educated women are in the workforce. And today, women make up 60% of college graduates.

- [Aaron Zitner] This division that we're seeing between young men and young women, it goes beyond who they're gonna vote for for Congress or president. It goes to a range of policy issues. So then, let's look at what the government is offering. The Biden administration has moved to forgive federally funded student loans, that affects young women more than young men. - [Narrator] During the 2019, 2020 school year, 49% of female undergraduate students took out loans, compared to only 42% of male undergraduates. And 66% of all student debt is carried by women. - [Aaron Zitner] The young women favored for giving student loans by 45 percentage points. The young men were about equally divided. I mean, that's a big difference. - [Narrator] Meanwhile, young men support extending Trump's tax cuts by 23 percentage points, which cut the corporate tax rate

and reduced some individual income tax. - And now, because of our tax cuts, you can keep more of your hard-earned money. - [Narrator] But women oppose the proposed extension by 20 percentage points, a full 43 point difference. - That's data that goes like this. young men headed in one direction, and young women in the other. That's a big difference. Data does not usually segment young voters that remarkably, this is something new, - [Narrator] Which brings us back to this chart. 22% of young female voters say abortion is their number one issue in this election, a key aspect of Harris's campaign. - We trust women to make decisions about their own body. (crowd cheering) - [Narrator] Only 3% of young male voters said the same. And young men and women stacked up differently on other issues as well. With immigration, Trump's policies are much more likely

to be supported by men than women. Men support deploying troops at the border by 10 percentage points, whereas women oppose this policy by 15 points. And when it comes to building the wall, one of Trump's key immigration policies, men are only slightly leaning towards opposition, but women overwhelmingly oppose it. These gaps are hard to explain just by differences in lived experience. Which brings us to the second thing that explains the gap between young men and women. - What are the candidates and what are the parties saying to young voters? Donald Trump and the Republican Party are putting out a lot of messages expressly intended to appeal to young men. Donald Trump has gone to Ultimate Fighting Championship matches. (crowd cheering) - [Commentator] And the president getting a standing ovation. - [Aaron Zitner] He recently appeared on the podcast of Logan Paul. He went to a sneaker convention to sell his own brand of sneakers. - We gotta get young people out to vote.

- [Aaron Zitner] These are audiences that are overwhelmingly male and overwhelmingly filled with young men, and it's a way that Donald Trump and his campaign have been saying, Hey, young men, I'm with you. I'm on the same page as you. I understand you. - [Narrator] Meanwhile... - [Aaron Zitner] A lot of the messaging from the Democratic Party has been towards issues that are more salient for women. - When I'm president of the United States, I will sign into law the protections for reproductive freedom. - [Narrator] So what does this mean for November? Young women historically vote at higher rates than young men. But experts say that with a tight election, the Democratic Party will need to draw in as many votes as possible. The next challenge for the Republican Party will be figuring out how to turn these young male supporters into actual voters.

Why So Many Young Men Are Leaving Democrats for Republicans in 2024 | WSJ State of the Stat

The Wall Street Journal takes you inside carefully selected stories and events in a visually captivating way so you can dig deeper into the news and insights that matter to you. 

The Wall Street Journal

젊은 층의 민주당 지지율은 2023년 50% 아래로 떨어졌고, 젊은 남성의 공화당 지지율은 7년 동안 35%에서 48%로 증가했습니다.

이러한 변화는 대학 학위가 없는 젊은 남성은 노동력 참여가 감소하는 반면, 대학 교육을 받은 여성은 졸업생의 60%를 차지하고 노동력 참여율이 87%를 기록하는 등 서로 다른 삶의 경험에 의해 주도되고 있습니다.

젊은 남성 유권자의 가장 큰 이슈는 경제, 민주주의, 이민이며, 젊은 여성은 낙태를 우선순위로 꼽았습니다.

젊은 유권자 선호도의 성별 격차

젊은 남성과 여성의 분열은 투표를 넘어 다양한 정책 문제에 영향을 미칩니다.

바이든 행정부의 학자금 대출 탕감은 학자금 부채의 66%를 떠안고 있는 여성에게 불균형적으로 영향을 미칩니다.

또한 젊은 남성과 여성은 감세와 낙태 및 이민과 같은 주요 정치적 이슈에 대한 지지도에서 큰 차이를 보입니다.

트럼프의 이민 정책에 대한 성별 지지율 격차

남성은 국경에 군대를 배치하는 것을 지지하는 경향이 높은 반면, 여성은 압도적으로 반대하는 것으로 나타났습니다.

장벽 건설에 대한 지지도에서도 남성은 약간 반대쪽으로 기울고 여성은 강력하게 반대하는 등 성별 격차가 두드러집니다.

트럼프는 젊은 남성에게 어필하기 위해 UFC 경기 관람, 로건 폴과의 팟캐스트 방송, 운동화 컨벤션 참가 등 다양한 노력을 기울이고 있습니다.

성별이 투표 트렌드에 미치는 영향

도널드 트럼프의 선거운동은 젊은 남성들을 타깃으로 그들의 고민에 공감하는 것을 목표로 하고 있습니다.

반면 민주당은 생식의 자유와 같이 여성에게 중요한 이슈에 집중하고 있습니다.

선거를 앞두고 민주당은 투표율을 극대화해야 하는 반면, 공화당은 젊은 남성 지지자를 실제 유권자로 전환해야 하는 과제에 직면해 있습니다.