### 비트코인 투자 전략: 위험과 잠재적 수익

### 암호화폐 환경: 위험, 보상 및 투자 전략
* 🐀 워런 버핏이 비트코인을 '쥐약'에 비유한 것은 암호화폐를 둘러싼 회의론을 강조한 것이지만, 많은 투자자는 여전히 **암호화폐의 잠재력에 대해 추측**하고 도박을 하고 있습니다.
* 📈 비트코인은 **2015년 이후 18,000%가 넘는 인상적인 상승세**를 보이며 지난 20년 동안 S&P 500과 같은 전통적인 투자 자산을 제치고 **최고의 수익률을 기록한 자산 클래스**가 되었습니다.
* 💡 그러나 비트코인은 종종 **50%에서 90%까지 하락했다가 반등**하는 등 암호화폐의 변동성이 극심하기 때문에 신중한 투자 전략이 필요합니다.
* 📊 연구에 따르면 지난 10년 동안 거래된 4만여 개의 암호화폐 중 **38%만이 여전히 활성 상태**이며, 이는 **48%만이 플러스 수익**을 내는 주식의 높은 실패율을 반영합니다.
* 💰 위험에도 불구하고 상위 10개 암호화폐에 투자하는 것은 역사적으로 **S&P 500보다 높은 수익률**을 기록했지만, 지난 몇 년간 일관성 없는 수익률에서 알 수 있듯이 **타이밍과 시장 상황의 중요성**은 아무리 강조해도 지나치지 않습니다.
* 🔍 특히 **비트코인을 위한 미국 예비 기금 설립 제안**과 같은 암호화폐 분야의 규제 가능성은 비트코인의 미래 가치와 안정성에 큰 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.
* ⚠ 투자자는 위험한 투자로 이어질 수 있는 감정적인 의사 결정과 과신에 주의해야 하며, 대신 **비트코인을 구매하고 보유하는 절제된 접근 방식**이 장기적으로 더 나은 결과를 가져올 수 있습니다.
* 📉 궁극적으로 비트코인과 암호화폐는 부를 창출할 수 있는 기회를 제공하지만 상당한 위험을 수반하므로 투자자는 **손실을 감수할 수 있는 자금만 할당**하여 균형 잡힌 정보에 입각한 투자 전략을 수립해야 합니다.

비트코인은 높은 수익률을 기대할 수 있지만 투자에는 신중함과 장기적인 전략이 필요합니다.

You know Warren Buffett said Bitcoin is like rat poison, and you know what, he's right. And guess what? Warren is the rat now if somebody calls out a store of value. I mean, I think they're delusional. I think it went up another $7,000 in the last

couple of hours. Well, I think it's going a lot higher. They like to speculate, they like to gamble. That grandson got his grandma to get into the game of Bitcoin. She thought she was just buying a piece of a big coin. What's up, Graham? It's guys

here, and I'm sure you're starting to see all these recommendations of the best cryptocurrencies to buy during the recent bull markets. After all, if you bought Bitcoin earlier this year, you'd be up 140%. Dogecoin is up 350%, and Peanut the Squirrel coin gained

about 1,500% in a week. I don't get that one, anyway. Even though a few cherry-picked examples did exceptionally well over these last few years, that got me thinking. What if there was a way to determine which cryptocurrencies have the

highest returns? How much would you have made had you bought and not sold? Can you identify which cryptocurrencies are eventually going to be worth nothing? And finally, is there a way to use this information to potentially make or save yourself a lot of money? Well, even though

unfortunately I can't predict the future, there is one analysis that dates back to 2012 to find the commonalities that gave you the best chance at making money. Honestly, this information is so good that we have to talk about what they found because I have a feeling this

could be, as they say, one of the greatest wealth transfers to ever happen in history. Although, before we start, as usual, if you appreciate the information and just the facts, it would mean a lot to me if you hit the like button and subscribed. I'm also going to be linking

the market sentiment newsletter down below in the description because they were kind enough to share all of this research with me, and I highly recommend you follow along as well. So thanks so much, and also a big thank you to Surfshark for sponsoring this video, but more

on that later. All right, so on the surface, let's get this out of the way: we have a money problem. Despite the stock market hitting record highs and inflation cooling down to almost 2%, the average American is getting poorer each and every year. Like, sure, we've seen an

average 10% annualized return in the S&P 500 since the 1920s, but we've also printed 10% more money every year during that same time. Well, in many ways, that's what people believe cryptocurrency, or largely Bitcoin, solves. After all, Bitcoin

has been one of the asset classes to have outperformed the money supply by a wide margin. How well? After making its debut in 2009 after the Great Financial Crisis, it slowly adopted mainstream popularity, having now become the best performing asset of the last two decades.

Rising more than 18,000% since 2015. To put into perspective how insane this is, that's a compound annual growth rate of more than 100%, or 10 times higher than that of the S&P 500, and the premise

is that there's only ever going to be 21 million Bitcoins in existence and that's it. But even though Bitcoin has gone up over 2000% since its inception, it's also not uncommon for it to drop 50 to 90% before eventually moving back

even higher. So what does this mean for you watching and how could you use this information to make money? Well, here's what you've been waiting for: the secret of cryptocurrency. Even though we've started hearing stories of traders turning $17 into 3 million by investing

in peanut coin, the reality is that unless you get insanely lucky, your chance at picking something that even makes any money is incredibly slim. But there are some things that you could do to at least help tilt the odds in your favor, like just consider this as the

market senid blog points out there are currently over 4,300 publicly traded companies in the United States, but there are more than 15,000 different cryptocurrencies. And of the more than 40,000 coins that traded in an exchange at least once in the last 10 years, only

38% are still alive. That means right off the bat, forget even making a profit. The chance of a random coin surviving for more than a few years is 1 in 3. And oddly enough, this is eerily similar to stocks. I know it sounds hard to believe,

but in Arizona State University, a professor analyzed over 26,000 stocks since 1926 and what he found was unbelievable. He discovered that the average stock trades for only about 7 years and loses money even with dividends reinvested. As it turns out, the

most common return for an individual stock over its lifetime was a loss of 100%, and only 48% of stocks delivered any positive returns whatsoever. So from this data, only 4% of stocks actually made more money than a one-month treasury bill, and the other 96% of

stocks that didn't go to zero simply kept pace with inflation initially. I never thought there would be this many similarities between stocks and cryptocurrency, but they're nearly identical, like when it comes to crypto. It's found that a few winners contribute massively to the overall market, and in

this case, 60% was contributed by Bitcoin. In addition to that, the top 10 coins contribute to a whopping 89% of the total crypto market, which for comparison, the top 10 companies in the S&P 500 only contribute around 30%. But if

cryptocurrencies are beginning to mirror that of the stock market, does this mean it's better to invest all of your money all at once or invest slowly on a regular basis over the next year or so? Again, here's where things take a bit of a turn.

That was honestly unexpected. Vanguard found that lump-sum investing outperformed dollar-cost averaging 69% of the time, and oddly enough, the same applies to Bitcoin since 2013. If you invested a lump sum into Bitcoin instead of dollar-cost averaging, you would have

come out on top 66% of the time. As an example of this, just take a look at what happened in 2018 and 2022. If you dollar-cost averaged during that time, you would have had a much lower drawdown than

someone who invested a lump sum at the beginning of the year, but if you had invested all of your money at the beginning of a bull run like in 2017, you would have outperformed by over 700%. This shows that statistically, if you

have a holding period of longer than 12 months, you're historically better off just investing all at once than spreading it across evenly throughout the year. But since this only applies to Bitcoin, what about other cryptocurrencies, especially since they seem to make millionaires overnight? Well,

before we go into that, it's important to mention that most investors will spend a lot of time reviewing every purchase, evaluating its potential upside, and then trying to make as much money as possible. But even though we'll spend a lifetime working to improve our finances,

save money, and budget it, it's shocking that most people spend no time whatsoever making sure their data is secure and protected. As an example of this, I've been traveling a lot to film guests for my podcast on The Iced Coffee Hour, and I've seen horror stories of people

connecting to Wi-Fi networks where hackers could see their bank account information, browsing history, and even keystrokes. That's why it's so important to keep your online identity safe, and our sponsor Surfshark VPN is able to help you do exactly that. For those un

aware, a VPN helps protect your online privacy by encrypting your internet connection, masking your IP address and personal information, and preventing hackers from identifying your city, country, and download history. Essentially, a VPN is able to swap the real location of your device with a new one, giving you

the ability to virtually travel around the globe, not to mention it's really useful if you travel outside of the country and want to have access to features that would otherwise be unavailable. For instance, I recently visited Japan and I was able to change my location back to the United States so

that everything worked as normal. Or, I guess you could also do this in reverse, like did you know you could watch the entire Harry Potter series from Netflix in the United Kingdom? Just switch your location, which takes you a few seconds, and you're good to go. In addition to

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in terms of Bitcoin compared to the overall cryptocurrency market, I have a feeling you're going to want to see this. Here's how the top 10 cryptocurrencies have changed over the last 10 years, and as you could see, really one thing has been clear: the number one pick

consistently has been Bitcoin now even though a lot has come and gone similar to the S&P 500 over the decades is there an investing strategy that one could utilize to consistently come out ahead well that's what brings me to this website top 10

cryptofunder the top 10 crypto currencies on a regular basis since January 2018 and then compared that to the overall index of cryptocurrency to see exactly how and where you could make as much money as possible and this is what I found very surprising the premise

of this is that on January 1st of every single year this person buys $1,000 worth of the top 10 coins split evenly with $100 each and then they compare that to the overall market to see which does better and this year despite

Bitcoin doing incredibly well as of November 1st this entire portfolio of the top 10 coins is only up 3% from the beginning of the year compared to 6% within the entire crypto market how well remember until November 4th much of the

market besides Bitcoin was rather stagnant having barely increased off its prices from the beginning of the year and now that the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem has seen a resurgence most of those losses have turned into rather spectacular gains with much of that having happened over the last 2 weeks

that of course is all going to be reported on the next update on December 1st on top of that if you include this data going all the way back to 2018 having consistently invested $11,000 each year into the top 10 coins that'll

equate to a total value of $2,829 on November 1st, all from an initial investment of $7,000. Compare that to the S&P 500, which is only worth $1,624 during that same time frame, and you could see that despite a lot more

volatility, you would have made a lot more money. Of course, keep in mind that all of this is based on past results, which may or may not continue in the future, and a large part of how much you end up making from all of this is largely due to your luck timing the

market. For instance, in 2017, your cryptocurrency investments would have resulted in an 84% loss by the end of the year, with a total loss as high as 94% from there. 2019 didn't do that much better either, during a time where the

S&P 500 saw a 29% return, the cryptocurrency portfolio made just 1.74%. That's it. Despite Bitcoin seeing an 89% increase that year, almost every other cryptocurrency lost value with the exception of Bitcoin cash and Litecoin, leading our cryptocurrency portfolio to

have underperformed a savings account. As it turns out, things didn't really turn around until 2020 and 2021, which was largely a bull market for cryptocurrency, and those gains overshadowed the rest of the market if you continued buying in consistently. But this is a prime example

that even though you can make a lot of money, you could also lose a lot of money very quickly. Although, in terms of why Bitcoin and cryptocurrency has gone up so much lately, a lot of it has to do with less regulation. In this case, the community is rather bullish on a new

proposal that would support rather than criminalize cryptocurrency by creating what's called a reserve fund. This was initiated by Senator Cynthia Lumis, that would make the United States the largest government Bitcoin holder, equating to about 5% of the network's

total supply, similar to the country's state global gold reserves. Even though this was previously stalled in Congress, now that Republicans control both the House and the Senate, and with Donald Trump publicly endorsing Bitcoin as a method of innovation, it's rumored that there could now be a chance for this to

pass, making it one of the primary goals of the first few months in office. This isn't just a Republican bill either. Democrats have also been on record as saying that we want to make sure that we have the openness to having Bitcoin as a part of the Federal Reserve and is a

reserve asset because of its potential for appreciation and because of its potential to allow America to set the financial standards. After all, this has worked well so far for El Salvador, whose holdings have risen past a billion dollars. The same also applies to Tesla, who also holds a similar amount and

dozens of other publicly traded companies that use a portion as their reserves. So if the United States is able to accumulate a large amount of Bitcoin, similar to having the reserve currency of the US dollar, this could be a way of maintaining global financial dominance,

especially since Bitcoin is seen as a worldwide store of value. Not to mention, as the Robin Hood founder said, there's widespread optimism that the Trump Administration, which has stated that they wish to embrace cryptocurrencies and make America the center of cryptocurrency innovation worldwide, is

going to have a much more forward-looking policy in this new industry. All of this has contributed to a very optimistic belief that this is just the very beginning and the price from here could be incredible, even being referred to as the greatest transfer of wealth in history. Although, despite me

speaking directly with Michael Saylor for a few hours, being bullish on the blockchain network and being a long-term believer in Bitcoin over the next 10 to 20 years, I do have a warning for everybody watching since there are so many similarities between cryptocurrencies

and penny stocks. If you don't want to lose money, just keep a few of these things in mind. One, research has shown that the biggest enemy to your portfolio isn't Gary Gensler, it's overconfidence. A study published in 2017 found that when

investors are successful, they disproportionately attribute their success to ability rather than luck, which leads them to making even riskier investments that eventually lose. Not only that, but investors are more likely to downplay their losses and mentally exaggerate their wins, leading

them to want to keep going. Two, the hardest barrier for an investor to overcome is emotion. Like at first, you're hopeful that you're going to make a lot of money. You see the potential, you hear about the people making life-changing money with $100 and you think to

yourself, well, if they could do it, I could do it too. But unfortunately, that is where greed sets in. Let's go a little heavier so you make more money. Everything is going up, so it'll go up even more if I don't get in right

now I'm going to lose the opportunity and then you're hit with fear it's the fear of missing out on more profit that keeps you in longer than you should and then from there it's the fear of loss that is so much more powerful than just

about anything else that you could feel and then finally you have regret what if you invested in this versus that what if you stayed in a little bit longer what if you missed this opportunity I don't want to look back and regret that all four of those emotions realistically

will impact your performance as an investor if you don't get them handled after that though three the less money that you have the more likely you are to make riskier investments to want to catch up for instance just consider this if you have $5,000 invested and you're

able to make a 30% return over a year that's $1,500 before taxes for all the work you had to spend on Twitter YouTube and Discord servers which is probably less than you would have made just working overtime at your existing job instead this might cause people with

less money to make riskier investments in pursuit of a 10,000% return which means most likely they're probably going to lose money in the process and finally four beware of fast quick easy profit I've been actively watching Bitcoin since late 2016 and I have seen so many

times people invest and make a substantial amount of money only to lose practically all of it when it comes crashing down the only investors that I have seen consistently actually make a profit have been the ones that just buy Bitcoin hold and do nothing I know it

doesn't sound exciting but it's true the boring investors that don't trade, don't speculate and just buy in an amount that they're willing to lose end up doing the best long-term. Lastly, let me just say this: when it comes to 99.9% of

cryptocurrency, it's the Wild Wild West. Anything could happen and there's a solid chance that you could lose a lot of money, even with Bitcoin. Some of these price targets at best are educated guesses and at worst, it's pure delusion. Sure, there are a lot of positive signals

I'm highly bullish for the future and it could one day trade for a million dollars a coin, but there's also a chance it won't anytime soon and that needs to be considered. Just so you don't buy in more than you're willing to risk at the end

of the day, I don't mean for this type of video to discourage anyone from participating, but it is a reminder that this sort of investment is inherently risky. And by better understanding why some people lose so much money, you could better protect your own investments to

come out ahead. There are just so many curveballs that could happen on a moment's notice and that needs to be taken into consideration, at least before you spec out your Lambo by 2030. I also believe there's no harm in taking some

profits if you're overly invested in a single asset class that's very volatile, or if you're up a life-changing amount of money. There's no reason to keep risking it. I just think it's a good idea to hear out as many different opinions as

It's possible to hear as many different perspectives as you can and then come to your own conclusion. In my case, I tend to believe this Bloomberg article which argues that Bitcoin can replace a small part of your portfolio without increasing volatility and risk. For example, just a 1% allocation to Bitcoin

has so far increased your returns by 1.3% with nearly identical volatility as bonds, which is incredible. So, no, I'm not against Bitcoin. If anything, I'm actually really for it, but I just want you to be a safe long-term stable investor that

doesn't lose money and is actually profitable. That's why you should only invest what you're willing to lose, take it slow, hold long-term, and no matter what, hit the like button and subscribe if you haven't done that already. So, thanks so much. And again, I'm going to link to the

market sentiment newsletter down below in the description. I highly recommend you go and follow them. They've been giving me some incredible research lately, and I highly recommend you follow along because I'm not going to be able to make videos on everything. So, again, the link is down below in the

description. Thank you so much, and until next time.

WTF Just Happened To Bitcoin?!

As a 30 year old real estate agent and investor who started working in real estate shortly after turning 18, with over $120,000,000 in residential real estate sales since 2008, I've created this channel to share my successes, failures, and experiences in the real estate industry and to support others who are thinking of getting into the business. Oh, and I'm also obsessed with cars. A lot. So expect to see some cars uploaded to my channel. A lot. And Subscribe. Because all the cool kids are doing it.  

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Graham Stephan

Bitcoin's Volatility and Market Speculation

Warren Buffett's negative view on Bitcoin is discussed, contrasting with the speaker's bullish outlook.

Anecdotal examples highlight the speculative nature of cryptocurrency investments, focusing on rapid price increases.

Significant gains in various cryptocurrencies are presented, emphasizing the potential for high returns but also high risk.

The speaker questions the predictability of cryptocurrency returns and the possibility of identifying failing cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin's Performance Compared to Traditional Markets

The video addresses the financial struggles of the average American despite record stock market highs, suggesting Bitcoin as a potential solution.

Bitcoin's performance is compared to the S&P 500, highlighting its significantly higher returns since 2009.

Bitcoin's volatility is acknowledged, with significant price drops followed by increases.

The video transitions to strategies for profiting from cryptocurrency investments.

Strategies and Statistics for Cryptocurrency Investment

The speaker emphasizes the low probability of randomly selecting a successful cryptocurrency.

A comparison is made between the survival rates of cryptocurrencies and stocks, highlighting the high failure rate in both markets.

The concentration of returns in a few top cryptocurrencies is discussed, similar to the stock market.

The video compares lump-sum investing versus dollar-cost averaging, showing lump-sum's superior performance in Bitcoin historically.

The speaker emphasizes the importance of online security and introduces Surfshark VPN as a solution.

The functionality of a VPN is explained, highlighting its benefits for online privacy and security.

Specific use cases for Surfshark VPN are provided, such as accessing region-locked content.

A promotional code and money-back guarantee are offered for Surfshark VPN.

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Investment Analysis

An analysis of the top 10 cryptocurrencies over 10 years shows Bitcoin's consistent dominance.

A study investing in the top 10 cryptocurrencies since 2018 is presented, comparing its performance to the overall crypto market.

The study's results are discussed, highlighting the potential for higher returns but also significant risks and volatility.

Specific years (2017, 2019) are analyzed, showing periods of significant losses despite overall market gains.

Political Factors Influencing Bitcoin's Price

The potential impact of a new cryptocurrency proposal in the US Congress is discussed, focusing on its potential to increase Bitcoin's value.

The role of political parties and public figures (Trump) in supporting cryptocurrency adoption is highlighted.

Examples of countries and companies holding significant Bitcoin reserves are mentioned.

The potential for Bitcoin to maintain global financial dominance is discussed.

Warnings and Advice for Cryptocurrency Investors

The speaker cautions against overconfidence and the impact of emotions on investment decisions.

The relationship between available capital and risk tolerance is discussed, advising against risky investments for those with limited funds.

The speaker advocates for a long-term, buy-and-hold strategy for Bitcoin, emphasizing the importance of risk management.

The speaker reiterates the inherent risks involved in cryptocurrency investment, emphasizing the need for caution and risk assessment.

The speaker suggests taking profits if significantly ahead, to mitigate risks.

The speaker concludes by suggesting a small allocation to Bitcoin within a diversified portfolio, citing a Bloomberg article.