트럼프의 예상치 못한 승리: 소수계 지지와 경제적 요인

### 트럼프의 놀라운 승리: 2024년 대선 결과 분석
* 🗳 3,000명으로 구성된 이민자 캐러밴이 미국 투표를 앞두고 멕시코로 북상하는 가운데, 뉴욕포스트와 같은 언론에서는 이를 **"미국에 대한 마지막 호소"**라고 표현하며 대조적인 보도를 내보냈습니다.
* 📊 Ground News는 미디어 환경의 다양한 내러티브를 탐색할 수 있는 귀중한 리소스를 제공하여 사용자가 **정치적 편향성과 과소 보도된 기사**를 식별할 수 있도록 도와줍니다.
* 📉 도널드 트럼프는 **2024년 대선에서 압도적인 선거인단 확보와 대중 투표의 성공 가능성**으로 많은 사람들을 놀라게 하며 **2004년 조지 부시 이후 처음으로 공화당 후보로 당선**되었습니다.
* 👥 트럼프는 특히 히스패닉계와 아랍계 미국인 등 소수 유권자들 사이에서 상당한 지지를 얻었으며, **펜실베이니아주에서 2020년의 30%에서 40%로 증가한 히스패닉계 유권자의 득표율**이 그의 승리에 결정적인 역할을 했다는 보도가 나왔습니다.
* 💰 유권자들은 정부 성과에 대한 인식에 영향을 미치는 글로벌 이슈인 인플레이션에 대한 **바이든과 해리스의 대처에 불만**을 표출하면서 **경제 문제가 가장 중요**했습니다.
* 📈 GDP 성장률 호조 등 긍정적인 거시경제 지표에도 불구하고 유권자들은 **현 정부의 경제에 대해 여전히 회의적인 반응**을 보였으며, 이는 **미디어 양극화로 인한 인식의 영향**이 컸습니다.
* 🔍 민주당 지지자와 비백인 유권자 간의 이념적 격차가 확대되면서 **사회적 보수주의와 경제 문제에 대한 공화당의 견해에 동조하는 소수 민족**이 늘어나면서 투표 패턴이 변화하고 있습니다.
* 📅 선거 주기가 계속됨에 따라 이러한 투표 동향의 의미와 현재 진행 중인 정치 드라마를 관찰하는 것이 중요해지며, **Ground News와 같은 신뢰할 수 있는 뉴스 소스의 중요성**이 강조될 것입니다.

트럼프의 예상치 못한 승리는 소수 유권자의 지지와 경제적 관심사가 정치 지형을 주도하는 중요한 변화임을 보여줍니다.

this video was brought to you by Ground News. Yesterday, Donald Trump was declared the victor of the 2024 presidential election. Well, the result in and of itself wasn't a massive shock. Polls before the election basically gave him a 50% chance of winning, and he was the slight favorite with the bookies. The magnitude of Trump's victory has taken almost everyone by surprise. Not only did he win a pretty overwhelming victory in the Electoral College, but he also looks set to win the popular vote too, the first Republican candidate to do so since George Bush in 2004. And Republicans look like they might also win a governing trifecta. So, in this video, we're going to try and explain not just why Trump won, but why he won by such a large [Music] margin. Before we start, if you haven't already, please consider subscribing and ringing the bell to stay in the loop and be notified when we release new videos. So, let's get straight into it. Well, there are obviously loads of reasons for Trump's victory as we see it.

the two biggest reasons might be his massive over-performance with minorities and the economy. Let's start with Trump's over-performance with minorities. In short, while we don't have the full results just yet, there's a fair bit of provisional evidence inferred by looking at the districts where Trump performed well and then comparing that to their ethnic mix. That Trump's victory was driven by a remarkable performance among minority voters who have traditionally broken for the Democrats. Now, this wasn't a total surprise. While Harris improved on Biden's numbers, Trump has been making gains in the polls with minorities, especially Hispanic and Arab Americans. However, the magnitude of Trump's success has come as a bit of a surprise. According to NBC, for instance, in Wisconsin, Trump won 20% of the black vote compared to just 8% in 2020. And in Pennsylvania, Trump won 40% of the Hispanic vote, up from an already unprecedented 30% in 2020. All in all, NBC is currently predicting that Trump will win a third of all

minority voters across the US, which would basically be the best performance for a Republican. Whatever for context, according to pre-election polls, Republicans haven't won more than 25% of the non-white vote since 1964. So why is this? Well, we've actually done an entire video on this before, but the TDR is that while different ethnic groups have their own specific reasons—Arab Americans, for instance, generally don't approve of Biden's Gaza policy—while young black voters don't have the same loyalty to the Democrats as their older peers. The overarching reason seems to be that minorities generally have more socially conservative views than their voting pattern would suggest, and much more socially conservative views than their white Progressive peers. Now, this is a relatively new phenomenon as well. In the 2000s, for instance, Democrats used to have pretty similar views on, say, immigration, but white Democrats and the Democratic Party as a whole have become increasingly pro-immigration over the past decade or so, while non-white voters have broadly stayed the same, creating an ideological gap between the party and

its minority base. Similarly, white Democrats increasingly identify as progressives, while non-white voters generally identify as moderates, as they always have done. Non-white voters are also significantly less likely than white progressives to agree with left-coded statements like racism is built into American society, or they're more to agree with right-coded statements like the government should increase border security and enforcement, and America is the greatest country in the world. Unsurprisingly then, as this ideological gap has widened, fewer and fewer non-white voters identify as Democrats, and more and more of them have apparently shifted towards the Republicans. According to John B. Murdoch of the Financial Times, this shift has been accelerated by the decline of a taboo among minorities against voting Republican, which has allowed conservative minorities who previously voted Democrat despite holding socially conservative views to match their vote choice to their ideology. But it's not just about the minority vote. Let's move on to the second big reason that Trump won the economy, which according to CNN's exit poll was the second most important issue to voters at this election, and

presumably the most important issue for Trump voters, assuming that it was mostly Harren voters citing democracy as the most important reason. In short, one of the big questions at this election was whether or not voters would give Biden credit for his economic record, which, at least judging by the macro numbers, has been pretty incredible by international standards. That's because America actually suffered a smaller inflationary spike than peer economies during 2022 and 2023. American GDP growth has been way better than basically every other large economy, and the Federal Reserve apparently achieved a so-called soft landing, successfully fiddling the interest rates to bring down inflation without triggering a recession. Biden's industrial policies, including the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS Act, are also generally considered to be successes, although the number of jobs created has been somewhat underwhelming. Nonetheless, the headline story here is the American economy is doing pretty great by international standards, and US Europeans would kill for even a fraction of America's GDP or productivity growth. However, despite this, for the past few

months polls have reliably found that Americans aren't happy with Biden or Harris's economic record, largely because voters just don't like inflation. Biden and Harris hope that if inflation falls, Democrats could draw attention to America's over-performance by international standards. Then, voters would give Biden and Harris the credit that Democrats feel they deserve, but this just hasn't happened. Voters still don't approve of Biden and Harris's handling of the economy and generally feel better about Trump's economy in his first term. Now, in a sense, this is just a continuation of a global trend. Basically, any government that was in power during the 2022-23 inflationary episode has struggled in the polls, and many have been voted out of office in recent elections. And this seems to be because the only thing that voters really care about is inflation, especially what Bloomberg columnist John Authers calls anti-core inflation. In other words, voters care most about food and fuel inflation because it's what they notice in their day-to-day lives, and that's gone up drastically, not just in the US.

but in the world more generally, this makes them unlike economists and Central Bankers who look at so-called core inflation, which strips out volatile items like food and fuel to evaluate the risks of a wage-price spiral. However, Biden's woes here have been exacerbated by an America-specific phenomenon: media polarization. In short, because Democrats and Republicans have almost completely different media diets, their perceptions of the economy are radically different. As you can see by these graphs, both sides generally think the economy is doing pretty well when their preferred party is in office and vice versa. This makes America quite unlike other countries where voters across the political aisle generally agree on the state of the economy. In Germany, for instance, while AfD voters are generally more pessimistic about the economy, perceptions of the economy generally move in tandem across voter groups. The point we're making here is that even without the inflationary crisis of recent years, there's reason to think that Biden and Harris would have struggled to convince Republicans that the economy was doing well, whatever the facts on the ground. But

Despite Trump's pretty quick victory, there's still much more to follow along with in this election cycle, with the drama of the US election far from over. And when it comes to absorbing all of that news, thankfully, there's Ground News, a website and app developed by a former Nester engineer on a mission to give readers an easy, data-driven, objective way to read the news. They pull in articles from all over the world and organize them by story, and every story comes with a quick visual breakdown of the political bias, factuality, and ownership of all of the sources reporting, all backed up by ratings from three independent news monitoring organizations. For instance, take this story about migrants heading across the US border on Election Day. Right away, you can see that the story had 21 outlets reporting on it, and of these, 15% lean left while 62% lean right. You can also swipe through some of the headlines to see just how different reporting can be based on these biases, with US news on the left.

saying migrant Caravan of 3,000 heads North in Mexico as us votes while the New York Post on the right proclaims that it's one last you to America. They're reporting on the same story but in very different ways. They also have a special election page to help you follow along with the breaking news. You can also read specific stories for each candidate, including the major platform issues and even blind spots, stories under-reported by one side of the political Spectrum or the other. Ground news is such a useful tool for our current media landscape, and I can't recommend it enough. I know I've personally benefited enormously from ground news. I've gotten better at spotting political bias, and I've surprisingly challenged some of my own views. In fact, if you subscribe today, you'll get 50% off their Vantage plan, which includes unlimited access to their election Pages, blind spot feed, and many other features that Empower you as a news consumer. This is their biggest discount yet, so go to ground. news/ odr, scan the QR code on screen, or use the

link in the description to subscribe today.

Why Trump Won

TLDR News Global

2024년 대선에서 트럼프의 놀라운 승리

도널드 트럼프가 2024년 대통령 선거에서 압도적인 선거인단 확보와 대중투표 승리 가능성으로 많은 사람들을 놀라게 하며 당선자로 결정되었습니다.

2004년 조지 부시 이후 공화당 후보가 대중 투표에서 승리한 것은 이번이 처음입니다.

이 동영상은 또한 데이터 기반의 객관적인 방식으로 뉴스를 읽고 다양한 정치적 편향성을 파악할 수 있는 플랫폼인 Ground News를 강조합니다.

소수 유권자 및 경제에 대한 트럼프의 놀라운 성공

트럼프의 승리는 소수계 유권자, 특히 히스패닉계와 아랍계 미국인 유권자에서 2020년 득표율을 뛰어넘는 압도적인 성과를 거둔 것이 주요 원인으로 분석됩니다.

주요 주에서 흑인과 히스패닉계 유권자의 상당 부분을 확보하는 데 성공한 것은 예상 밖의 성과였습니다.

한편, 바이든과 해리스는 인플레이션과 경제 문제로 어려움을 겪으면서 유권자 지지율이 낮았으며, 많은 사람들이 생활비 상승을 탓하고 있습니다.

소수 유권자의 변화하는 역학 관계

공화당은 1964년 이후 한 번도 25% 이상을 얻지 못했던 소수 유권자층에서 최고의 성적을 거두고 있습니다.

민주당과 비백인 유권자 사이의 이념적 격차는 더 벌어졌고, 소수계 유권자들은 사회적으로 보수적인 견해를 더 많이 갖고 있습니다.

이러한 변화와 함께 공화당 투표에 대한 금기 사항이 감소하면서 민주당 지지자라고 밝힌 비백인 유권자는 줄어들고 공화당으로 이동하는 유권자는 늘어났습니다.

미국의 미디어 양극화와 경제 인식

미국의 경제에 대한 인식은 정당에 따라 나뉘며, 민주당과 공화당은 근본적으로 다른 견해를 가지고 있습니다.

이러한 양극화는 정치적 스펙트럼에 걸쳐 유권자들이 일반적으로 미국 경제에 대해 동의하는 다른 국가들과는 달리 미국만의 독특한 현상입니다.

강력한 거시경제 성과와 성공적인 산업 정책에도 불구하고 바이든과 해리스는 미디어가 주도하는 이러한 분열로 인해 공화당원들에게 자신의 경제 기록을 설득하는 데 어려움을 겪어왔습니다.

그라운드 뉴스: 미디어 편향성을 이해하기 위한 도구

Ground News는 뉴욕포스트와 다른 언론사의 이민자 캐러밴에 대한 서로 다른 보도를 강조합니다.

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