this video was brought to you by Ground News. Yesterday, Donald Trump was declared the victor of the 2024 presidential election. Well, the result in and of itself wasn't a massive shock. Polls before the election basically gave him a 50% chance of winning, and he was the slight favorite with the bookies. The magnitude of Trump's victory has taken almost everyone by surprise. Not only did he win a pretty overwhelming victory in the Electoral College, but he also looks set to win the popular vote too, the first Republican candidate to do so since George Bush in 2004. And Republicans look like they might also win a governing trifecta. So, in this video, we're going to try and explain not just why Trump won, but why he won by such a large [Music] margin. Before we start, if you haven't already, please consider subscribing and ringing the bell to stay in the loop and be notified when we release new videos. So, let's get straight into it. Well, there are obviously loads of reasons for Trump's victory as we see it.

the two biggest reasons might be his massive over-performance with minorities and the economy. Let's start with Trump's over-performance with minorities. In short, while we don't have the full results just yet, there's a fair bit of provisional evidence inferred by looking at the districts where Trump performed well and then comparing that to their ethnic mix. That Trump's victory was driven by a remarkable performance among minority voters who have traditionally broken for the Democrats. Now, this wasn't a total surprise. While Harris improved on Biden's numbers, Trump has been making gains in the polls with minorities, especially Hispanic and Arab Americans. However, the magnitude of Trump's success has come as a bit of a surprise. According to NBC, for instance, in Wisconsin, Trump won 20% of the black vote compared to just 8% in 2020. And in Pennsylvania, Trump won 40% of the Hispanic vote, up from an already unprecedented 30% in 2020. All in all, NBC is currently predicting that Trump will win a third of all

minority voters across the US, which would basically be the best performance for a Republican. Whatever for context, according to pre-election polls, Republicans haven't won more than 25% of the non-white vote since 1964. So why is this? Well, we've actually done an entire video on this before, but the TDR is that while different ethnic groups have their own specific reasons—Arab Americans, for instance, generally don't approve of Biden's Gaza policy—while young black voters don't have the same loyalty to the Democrats as their older peers. The overarching reason seems to be that minorities generally have more socially conservative views than their voting pattern would suggest, and much more socially conservative views than their white Progressive peers. Now, this is a relatively new phenomenon as well. In the 2000s, for instance, Democrats used to have pretty similar views on, say, immigration, but white Democrats and the Democratic Party as a whole have become increasingly pro-immigration over the past decade or so, while non-white voters have broadly stayed the same, creating an ideological gap between the party and

its minority base. Similarly, white Democrats increasingly identify as progressives, while non-white voters generally identify as moderates, as they always have done. Non-white voters are also significantly less likely than white progressives to agree with left-coded statements like racism is built into American society, or they're more to agree with right-coded statements like the government should increase border security and enforcement, and America is the greatest country in the world. Unsurprisingly then, as this ideological gap has widened, fewer and fewer non-white voters identify as Democrats, and more and more of them have apparently shifted towards the Republicans. According to John B. Murdoch of the Financial Times, this shift has been accelerated by the decline of a taboo among minorities against voting Republican, which has allowed conservative minorities who previously voted Democrat despite holding socially conservative views to match their vote choice to their ideology. But it's not just about the minority vote. Let's move on to the second big reason that Trump won the economy, which according to CNN's exit poll was the second most important issue to voters at this election, and

presumably the most important issue for Trump voters, assuming that it was mostly Harren voters citing democracy as the most important reason. In short, one of the big questions at this election was whether or not voters would give Biden credit for his economic record, which, at least judging by the macro numbers, has been pretty incredible by international standards. That's because America actually suffered a smaller inflationary spike than peer economies during 2022 and 2023. American GDP growth has been way better than basically every other large economy, and the Federal Reserve apparently achieved a so-called soft landing, successfully fiddling the interest rates to bring down inflation without triggering a recession. Biden's industrial policies, including the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS Act, are also generally considered to be successes, although the number of jobs created has been somewhat underwhelming. Nonetheless, the headline story here is the American economy is doing pretty great by international standards, and US Europeans would kill for even a fraction of America's GDP or productivity growth. However, despite this, for the past few

months polls have reliably found that Americans aren't happy with Biden or Harris's economic record, largely because voters just don't like inflation. Biden and Harris hope that if inflation falls, Democrats could draw attention to America's over-performance by international standards. Then, voters would give Biden and Harris the credit that Democrats feel they deserve, but this just hasn't happened. Voters still don't approve of Biden and Harris's handling of the economy and generally feel better about Trump's economy in his first term. Now, in a sense, this is just a continuation of a global trend. Basically, any government that was in power during the 2022-23 inflationary episode has struggled in the polls, and many have been voted out of office in recent elections. And this seems to be because the only thing that voters really care about is inflation, especially what Bloomberg columnist John Authers calls anti-core inflation. In other words, voters care most about food and fuel inflation because it's what they notice in their day-to-day lives, and that's gone up drastically, not just in the US.

but in the world more generally, this makes them unlike economists and Central Bankers who look at so-called core inflation, which strips out volatile items like food and fuel to evaluate the risks of a wage-price spiral. However, Biden's woes here have been exacerbated by an America-specific phenomenon: media polarization. In short, because Democrats and Republicans have almost completely different media diets, their perceptions of the economy are radically different. As you can see by these graphs, both sides generally think the economy is doing pretty well when their preferred party is in office and vice versa. This makes America quite unlike other countries where voters across the political aisle generally agree on the state of the economy. In Germany, for instance, while AfD voters are generally more pessimistic about the economy, perceptions of the economy generally move in tandem across voter groups. The point we're making here is that even without the inflationary crisis of recent years, there's reason to think that Biden and Harris would have struggled to convince Republicans that the economy was doing well, whatever the facts on the ground. But

Despite Trump's pretty quick victory, there's still much more to follow along with in this election cycle, with the drama of the US election far from over. And when it comes to absorbing all of that news, thankfully, there's Ground News, a website and app developed by a former Nester engineer on a mission to give readers an easy, data-driven, objective way to read the news. They pull in articles from all over the world and organize them by story, and every story comes with a quick visual breakdown of the political bias, factuality, and ownership of all of the sources reporting, all backed up by ratings from three independent news monitoring organizations. For instance, take this story about migrants heading across the US border on Election Day. Right away, you can see that the story had 21 outlets reporting on it, and of these, 15% lean left while 62% lean right. You can also swipe through some of the headlines to see just how different reporting can be based on these biases, with US news on the left.

saying migrant Caravan of 3,000 heads North in Mexico as us votes while the New York Post on the right proclaims that it's one last you to America. They're reporting on the same story but in very different ways. They also have a special election page to help you follow along with the breaking news. You can also read specific stories for each candidate, including the major platform issues and even blind spots, stories under-reported by one side of the political Spectrum or the other. Ground news is such a useful tool for our current media landscape, and I can't recommend it enough. I know I've personally benefited enormously from ground news. I've gotten better at spotting political bias, and I've surprisingly challenged some of my own views. In fact, if you subscribe today, you'll get 50% off their Vantage plan, which includes unlimited access to their election Pages, blind spot feed, and many other features that Empower you as a news consumer. This is their biggest discount yet, so go to ground. news/ odr, scan the QR code on screen, or use the

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Why Trump Won

Why Trump Won