중국의 반도체 산업: 차질과 수출 제한

### 중국의 반도체 야망의 좌절: 수출 제한의 영향
* 🚫 ASML이 첨단 칩 생산에 필수적인 **극자외선(EUV) 리소그래피 장비의 수입을 중단**하면서 중국 반도체 산업은 큰 차질을 겪고 있습니다.
* 🔧 이 결정에는 중국의 생산 능력을 심각하게 손상시킬 수 있는 **심자외선(DUV) 장비와 같은 구형 반도체 제조 장비의 수출 및 유지보수 중단**도 포함되어 있습니다.
* 📉 로이터 보도에 따르면 네덜란드 총리는 특히 스마트폰 애플리케이션 프로세서와 같은 첨단 칩 생산에 필수적인 **ASML의 중국 내 서비스 및 예비 부품 라이선스를 갱신하지 않을 가능성**이 높다고 합니다.
* 🛠 현재 중국은 구형 DUV 기술에 의존해 칩을 생산하고 있지만, 이 방식은 **낮은 수율과 수익성 문제**로 이어져 **수지타사와 같은 기업이 운영을 지속하기 어렵습니다.**
* 🇺🇸 미국은 동맹국들에게 중국에 대한 수출 통제 기준을 준수하도록 압력을 가하고 있으며, **해외 직접 제품 규칙(FDPR)과 같은 추가 조치**도 곧 시행될 예정입니다.
* 💰 제재가 강화될 것을 예상한 중국은 올해 **260억 달러의 반도체 장비**를 수입했으며, 그 중 **ASML의 수입액은 20억 달러**를 넘어 제재가 강화되기 전에 자원을 확보하기 위해 서두르고 있는 것으로 보입니다.
* ⚔ 미국은 **중국이 고부가가치 무기 시스템용 첨단 반도체 개발에 기여할 수 있는 ASML 장비를 군사 목적으로 사용하는 것**을 막는 것을 목표로 하고 있습니다.
* ⏳ 전문가들은 중국이 자급자족을 위해 노력하고 있지만, **TSMC와 같은 선도 기업에 비해 3년의 격차**로 기술력이 크게 뒤처져 있어 반도체 부문에서 중국의 야망이 복잡해졌다고 지적합니다.

중국의 반도체 산업은 ASML로부터의 중요한 EUV 장비 수입 중단으로 인해 심각한 차질을 빚고 있습니다.

China's semiconductor industry has faced a significant setback. ASML, a Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturer, has decided to halt the import of essential extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment, which is crucial for advanced semiconductor production. This decision extends to stopping the export and maintenance of older semiconductor fabrication equipment, including deep ultraviolet (DUV) machines. As a result, it appears that China will suffer serious damage to its semiconductor production capabilities. The New York Times has examined the collapse of this semiconductor ambition. 

According to a report by Reuters on the 1st, citing anonymous sources, the Dutch Prime Minister is likely to not renew the license for specific services and spare parts provided to ASML in China, which is set to expire this year. China is currently in need of extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment, which is essential for producing advanced chips such as smartphone application processors.

Due to the situation where imports are not possible, ASML's older photolithography equipment, specifically DUV, is being used multiple times to produce chips. However, there is no one to manufacture them, so we are employing a stopgap strategy. Of course, even with this method, it is possible to create high-quality smartphones, but the yield is low, making it unprofitable for companies like Suji Tasa. Despite this, advanced chips have been forcibly produced, but the situation may soon become impossible. From China's perspective, this increases the likelihood of becoming like a dog chasing a chicken. These measures are a response to China's efforts to forcibly increase semiconductor production, with the U.S. continually putting the brakes on. Ultimately, it seems that the Dutch government has also decided to follow the U.S. stance. A senior official from the Biden administration indicated that if allied countries do not align with the U.S. export control standards regarding China, they may implement additional measures, such as applying the overseas direct product rule, known as FDPR.

There has been continuous pressure regarding this issue. Here, FDPR refers to regulations that require any product made in another country to obtain permission from the U.S. government for export if it uses even a small amount of U.S.-made software or technology. In the semiconductor manufacturing equipment sector, important countries besides the U.S. include South Korea, the Netherlands, and Japan. The U.S. government has been promoting the use of FDPR to encourage allied countries to participate. American semiconductor equipment companies, such as Applied Materials, have joined the ban on exports and the prohibition of services, thereby withdrawing from the Chinese market. However, allied companies like ASML and Tokyo Electron have shown reluctance and have only partially participated. Under ongoing pressure, ASML has agreed to comply with export restrictions on certain equipment. Since then, they have primarily exported older kit-type products that can evade regulations to China. However, the equipment...

The maintenance also decided to cut ties with China. Currently, ASML personnel are stationed at the factories of Chinese customers to assist with maintenance. In this regard, former Prime Minister Mark Rutte of the Netherlands stated that the Dutch government needed more time to assess the impact of the U.S. export ban on advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment. However, it seems that Prime Minister Dick Schoof has shifted the course since taking office. In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Prime Minister Schoof emphasized the need to be very cautious in discussions with China regarding national security. When asked whether the Dutch government is considering new export controls this year, he mentioned that they are having good negotiations with the U.S. and Japan and expects positive outcomes. Bloomberg noted that these measures could be a significant blow to China's ambitions to develop a world-class semiconductor industry.

There is an explanation that as time goes on, semiconductor equipment exports to China will face increasing restrictions. Therefore, a significant amount of semiconductor equipment was purchased this year. According to Chinese customs, as of July this year, China's semiconductor equipment imports reached 26 billion dollars, the highest figure ever recorded. Among this, the total import amount from ASML exceeded 2 billion dollars, marking the second highest amount in history. In short, it can be seen that purchases were made with the concept of let's buy it now, anticipating additional sanctions. The problem is that no matter how many products are imported, if maintenance from ASML cannot be received, even the new equipment may not operate properly. Currently, in China, Huawei designs advanced APs for smartphones, and the country's leading foundry, SMIC, uses old DUV technology for production. Unable to use advanced EUV equipment, SMIC is producing using the older DUV equipment, which involves multiple passes. Of course, producing this way will force production to be...

It is possible to do it, but as the yield decreases, many profitability issues arise. This is why Huawei cannot mass-produce smartphones equipped with advanced APs freely. So, why did the United States force ASML not to export or maintain its equipment to China? The reason is simple: China is not only producing chips for smartphones with ASML equipment but is also using it to create chips for military purposes. In this regard, Jeffrey van Leeuwen, the Dutch Minister for International Trade and Development Cooperation, stated through Reuters in February that China is focusing on acquiring foreign expertise in the lithography field, including from the Netherlands, to promote self-sufficiency in military technology development. He further noted that ASML equipment could be used in the production of advanced semiconductors for high-value weapon systems and weapons of mass destruction.

How advanced is the semiconductor industry currently? Recently, Hiroharu Shimizu, president of the Japanese semiconductor research firm Terry, stated that China's semiconductor technology is three years behind the world's largest foundry, Taiwan's TSMC. This analysis was reported by various media outlets. Citing this report, domestic media have headlined whether the U.S. sanctions have had an effect or not, while also noting that Chinese semiconductor companies achieved remarkable results in the first half of the year. In the article from Nikkei, Shimizu compared TSMC's 2021 mass-produced Nano chip, the Kirin 9000 AP, with China's largest foundry company SMIC's 2024 mass-produced Nano chip, the Kirin 9010 AP, and reached this conclusion. He noted that these semiconductor chips have fundamentally similar processing performance. The Kirin 9010 AP was designed by China's HiSilicon and was released in April with Huawei's latest smartphone, the Pura 70.

Currently, while TSMC is in charge of the production, HiSilicon has made advancements. President Smith analyzed Huawei's latest smartphone and emphasized that, so far, the U.S. government's export controls on China have only slightly delayed China's technological innovation, and the Chinese semiconductor industry is pushing for self-sufficiency in production. However, the report on President Smith's statements misses a very important fact: how is China's SMIC producing its seven-nanometer chips? Even if ASML completely blocks maintenance for DUV equipment, can SMIC mass-produce seven-nanometer chips? The answer is no. Of course, China will try to find ways to overcome this limitation, but it won't be easy. Especially in semiconductors, being three years behind in technology is a significant setback.

I can say that there is a significant difference. At first glance, it may sound like in three years, China will catch up with the semiconductor technology of Korea or Western countries, but that is not the case at all. In three years, Korea's Samsung and SK Hynix will be soaring to even greater heights. On May 8th, the South China Morning Post reported that after the U.S. canceled export licenses for Intel and Qualcomm, China's growing industry, particularly the Huawei laptop business, is wobbling. It is important to pay attention to this report. The South China Morning Post noted that most of Huawei's consumer laptops released since 2022 have been equipped with Intel or Qualcomm processors. They pointed out that the U.S.'s additional restrictions on Intel and Qualcomm chips would pose tremendous challenges to Huawei's growing PC business in China.

South China Morning Post reported that Huawei is trying to diversify its revenue sources by mass-producing desktop and laptop computers that use less advanced chips compared to smartphones. Huawei is purchasing these processes from American chip manufacturers that have received approval from the U.S. government and is using chips that were stockpiled before the sanctions took effect. According to Reuters, as of last March, the chips currently being used by Huawei are a significant quantity worth millions of dollars that were purchased during the Trump administration and are still in stock. South China Morning Post also mentioned that while Huawei discussed using Chinese-made semiconductors in last year's Mate 60 series, the Kirin 9000S processor included in this smartphone was actually produced through ASML's DUV technology. This highlights the reality of the Chinese semiconductor industry. In short, some South Korean media outlets are dramatically portraying the situation of Chinese semiconductors.

It is said that we should not be swayed by such words while promoting. This was an analysis of the current international situation by White. Thank you.

[Why Times 정세분석 2893] 제대로 뒤통수 맞은 中반도체, 허망하게 무너진 ‘반도체 굴기’ (2024.9.2)

Why Times

ASML이 중요한 극자외선 리소그래피 장비의 수입을 중단하고 구형 제조 기계의 수출을 중단하면서 중국의 반도체 산업이 큰 타격을 받고 있습니다.

네덜란드 총리는 중국 내 특정 서비스에 대한 ASML의 라이선스를 갱신하지 않을 것으로 보이며, 이는 중국의 첨단 칩 생산에 대한 어려움을 더욱 악화시킬 것입니다.

미국 정부는 동맹국에 수출 통제 기준을 준수하도록 압력을 가하고 있으며, 이로 인해 미국 반도체 장비 회사들이 중국 시장에서 철수하고 있습니다.

ASML의 전략 변화와 중국의 반도체 야망

ASML은 중국과의 관계를 단절하고 있으며 유지보수를 위해 중국 공장에 인력을 파견하고 있습니다.

네덜란드 정부는 딕 슈프 총리의 지휘 아래 중국과의 논의에 신중하게 접근하고 있으며 미국 및 일본과 협력하여 새로운 수출 규제를 협상하고 있습니다.

중국의 반도체 장비 수입은 올해 사상 최대인 260억 달러로 급증했으며, 이 중 ASML이 20억 달러 이상을 차지하면서 기업들이 더 엄격한 제재를 예상하고 있습니다.

반도체 자급자족을 위한 중국의 투쟁

ASML 장비를 사용하는 중국의 칩 생산은 스마트폰 및 군사 목적과 관련이 있어 미국의 대중국 수출에 대한 제재로 이어졌습니다.

네덜란드 국제 무역부 장관은 중국이 군사 기술 개발을 강화하기 위해 리소그래피 분야에서 외국의 전문 지식을 습득하는 데 주력하고 있다고 강조했습니다.

중국의 반도체 회사는 대만의 TSMC에 비해 3년 뒤처져 있지만, 하이실리콘이 설계한 기린 9010 AP가 화웨이의 최신 스마트폰과 함께 출시될 예정에 있는 등 괄목할 만한 발전을 보이고 있습니다.

하이실리콘은 TSMC가 생산을 담당하는 동안 발전을 이루었지만 미국 정부의 수출 통제로 인해 중국의 기술 혁신이 약간 지연되었습니다.

SMIC의 7나노미터 칩 생산 시도는 자원 부족으로 차질을 빚고 있으며, 3년 안에 한국의 반도체 기술을 따라잡기는 쉽지 않을 것으로 보입니다.

미국의 인텔과 퀄컴에 대한 수출 라이선스 취소는 화웨이의 중국 내 노트북 사업 성장에 상당한 도전이 되고 있습니다.

화웨이는 덜 발전된 칩을 탑재한 데스크톱 및 노트북 컴퓨터를 대량 생산하여 수익을 다각화하고 있습니다.

화웨이는 승인된 미국 제조업체로부터 이러한 칩을 구매하고 제재 이전부터 비축한 칩을 사용하고 있습니다.

화웨이는 메이트 60 시리즈에 중국산 반도체를 사용하는 것을 목표로 했지만, 실제로 기린 9000S 프로세서는 ASML의 DUV 기술을 통해 생산되어 중국 반도체 산업의 어려움을 드러냈습니다.