주간 인사이트: 주간 인사이트: 연방준비제도 금리 인하와 바이오테크 섹터 동향

### 주간 인사이트: 금리 인하와 생명공학 분야 동향
* 📉 연방공개시장위원회(FOMC)는 4년 만에 처음으로 금리 인하를 시작했으며, 이번 달에는 **50 베이시스 포인트의 대폭적인 인하**를 단행했습니다.
* 💼 이러한 정책 변화는 향후 조정의 주요 지표로 **고용과 인플레이션에 초점**을 맞춘 연방준비제도의 선제적 접근 방식을 나타냅니다.
* 🔍 금리 인하에도 불구하고 그 효과가 업종별로 다르기 때문에 **주식 시장 성과와 직접적인 상관관계**가 있다는 보장은 없다는 점을 이해해야 합니다.
* 💡 국내 금융투자업계는 특히 **오는 24일 금융투자 마감일**을 앞두고 상황을 면밀히 모니터링하고 있습니다.
* 🔬 생명공학 분야, 특히 항암 및 자가 면역 치료와 관련된 기업들은 **상당한 발전**을 이루었으며 앞으로도 **성장세**를 이어갈 것으로 예상됩니다.
* 📈 바이오테크 분야의 주요 기업으로는 이중 특이 항체 및 재생 의학 등의 분야에서 혁신을 거듭하고 있는 **Alteogen과 A-Bio**가 있습니다.
* ⚖ 투자자들은 **시장 과열기에 충동적인 매수를 피하고 장기 전략과 잠재적 후발주자에 집중**하는 등 신중하게 투자하는 것이 좋습니다.
* ⏳ 시장이 진화함에 따라 인내심과 합리적인 의사 결정이 중요하며, **꿋꿋이 버티는 사람**이 궁극적으로 더 큰 보상을 얻을 수 있다는 믿음이 필요합니다.

연방준비제도의 선제적인 금리 인하는 고용 변동과 인플레이션 안정화 속에서 정책의 변화를 예고하는 신호입니다.

Hello, this is Han Gyun-soo's Weekly Insight. Let's kick off this week with energy. Since Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday were holidays, there were only two trading days this week. I thought there wouldn't be much to discuss, but a lot has happened, so let's quickly review the key points. This week's Weekly Insight starts off strongly.

There are several key topics this week, but I'll highlight the most important ones. First, the FOMC has finally started to lower interest rates after four years and six months. The last time there was a rate cut was in early 2020, so it has indeed been over four years. The Fed's pivot signifies a change in policy stance; previously, they maintained high interest rates. Finally, this month, they have begun to lower rates, and this won't be a one-time cut. A trend of gradual, stepwise rate reductions will continue for the time being.

In this instance, instead of lowering the rate by 25 basis points, or 0.25%, the Federal Reserve implemented a significant cut of 50 basis points, or 0.5%, all at once, leading to a rapid decrease in interest rates. The reasons for the Federal Reserve's decision to lower the benchmark interest rate are various, but recently, the two most important factors they are focusing on are employment and inflation. The central bank, under Chairman Powell, previously emphasized controlling inflation due to high prices. However, now that inflation seems to be under control and the unemployment rate is fluctuating, discussions related to employment indicators have been prominent for several months. The key point here is not whether the benchmark interest rate is lowered or not, but whether the employment and inflation indicators are moving in a way that the Federal Reserve cannot manage, or if they are operating outside the range of what can be handled.

I need to look at this, but since the prices are high, it can be said that they have stabilized. The employment indicators seem a bit erratic, but in reality, as the unemployment rate rises sharply, people are starting to lose their jobs at a rapid pace. The Federal Reserve is not just lowering interest rates; it has a more proactive character in its rate cuts. In other words, once the employment market starts to shift, meaning the unemployment rate begins to rise, the effectiveness of interest rate cuts may diminish or there may be a possibility of the unemployment rate rising. Therefore, the proactive nature of the rate cuts means that, from an investor's perspective, this is not a major issue to be overly concerned about. It is difficult to find a precise correlation between interest rate cuts leading to stock market increases or interest rate hikes leading to declines. What is more important is the reasoning behind the rate cuts and hikes. In my view, the recent cuts are more about precaution and proactivity.

Since the personality is somewhat strong, it is unlikely to have a significant impact on the market. In other words, just because interest rates are lowered does not mean that the economy will be in a recession to the extent that one would sell stocks. Additionally, liquidity is expected to increase significantly, so the idea is not to rapidly lower interest rates and then invest all at once in stocks; this stance is not extreme. It can be viewed as a situation where one can simply continue on the original path without any drastic changes. While there may not be a significant correlation between the overall index and interest rates, there is indeed a relationship by sector. For example, sectors like biotech that are typically sensitive to interest rate cuts are reacting first as these cuts begin. Therefore, it is difficult to say that the market itself is directly impacted in a significant way. Of course, there is an influence, but the effect of lowering interest rates does not guarantee that stock prices will necessarily...

There isn't a clear correlation that if interest rates rise, the market will necessarily decline. However, historically, when looking at various sectors, we can interpret that there are indeed some effects. This discussion pertains to the United States, and now if we talk about South Korea, the key topic is the financial investment firms. As everyone knows, the financial investment deadline is next Tuesday, the 24th. So, based on the 24th, right after the discussion ends, the Democratic Party will likely make a strong announcement regarding their party stance. Currently, the possibility of public opinion shifting is high. Therefore, it would be good to check this aspect. There are various types of interest rate and liquidity setters. As mentioned earlier, there are sectors like bio, renewable energy, and automobiles, and broadly speaking, construction and many others. The important thing is the strength of the liquidity.

There are, of course, some companies that receive a lot of direct investment while others receive less. The sectors that are most affected are obviously bio, renewable energy, and broadly speaking, secondary batteries and electric vehicles. Looking back over the past two to three weeks, the biggest influence has clearly been in the bio sector. The important thing is that there is continuity; we need to see continuity in the current period. If there are no additional factors aside from macro indicators, then that would be the end of it. However, the bio sector inherently has many factors driving it, and it seems reasonable to think that it will continue on its current path. I would like to summarize the stocks; our country's new drug biotech companies have significantly improved their technology over the past 10 to 20 years. In the past, they focused on anticancer drugs.

Focusing primarily on the leading companies, later on, even mid-sized companies in the field of autoimmune diseases have begun to work on biosimilars, and various other sectors have been added. As a reference, I will first organize the key players in this area, and those I do not mention today will include second-tier companies, which could be seen as smaller siblings or younger brothers following the leading ones. I will organize those later when I have time. Now, let's take a look at the companies that have recently shown some movement, focusing on the top five platform companies among small to mid-sized biotechs: Alteogen, AB Bio, Ligand, Camp Bio, and Pril Bio, as well as GI Innovation. Among these, everyone is familiar with the bispecific antibody platform, which I have discussed over 40 to 50 times. A-Bio is the leader in this area, while Alteogen is notable in the antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) platform, approximately at the level of a 3,000-person pharmaceutical company.

Recently, the keyword joint venture has gained significant prominence, particularly in the context of Regenerative Medicine. The term Regenerative Medicine can be seen as having evolved with four key changes. The platform known as Long-acting Delivery Systems refers to a technology that prolongs the duration of drug efficacy. This can be exemplified by companies like Frill Bio. 

I personally have a fondness for radioactive therapeutics, and one of the notable companies in this area is Future Chem, which focuses on prostate cancer. For autoimmune diseases, there are companies like Halo Bio. In the realm of gene editing, ToolGen can be considered a top player, especially since it holds the foundational patents. 

In the CAR-T and NK cell therapy sector, companies such as Java Biotech, CureCell, GCS, and Clone Vaxel Bio are notable. As for FDA final product approval-related stocks, Yuhan Corporation and OscoTech are among the key players.

Previously, we already received approval for laser therapy for non-small cell lung cancer, and we are expected to receive HLB's ribo-sera. In terms of biological security law, there are companies like Samsung Biologics, Viroc, and Prestige Biologics. Aside from these, there are other stocks that we need to keep an eye on, such as IMBDX, which conducts liquid biopsies to screen for eight types of cancer through our blood. IMBDX is recognized for liquid biopsy. When discussing the 3,000 major pharmaceuticals, we mentioned biosimilar formulation transformation technology. Cheondang Pharmaceutical has three main areas: first, biosimilars; second, a SPAS platform for formulation transformation; and third, it is also categorized under obesity-related stocks. This week, companies like Chaperone have been very active.

There is a company called Sharperon, which is fundamentally a treatment for atopy. Additionally, it can be associated with obesity-related topics. Then there's Curiox Biosystems, which can be considered a topic company that has automated cell analysis technology. Other cancer treatment companies, such as Voronoi, are emerging. Voronoi has reached a new high this week and can be seen as a treatment for non-small cell lung cancer. Besides this, there are actually a tremendous number of biotech companies. So, when the sector moves, it leads to really happy considerations. If we look at it from a broader perspective, there are leading companies in each part. For example, I haven't talked about stem cell therapies today because there hasn't been any movement in that area yet. This is also the case for other fields, and in the future, there will be discussions about dementia treatment and side effects.

If there is an opportunity later, I will address it. So, the stocks I mentioned should not be purchased recklessly. Of course, you should study further, and those who already own them probably know this, so think of it as a reference for holding. When the sector rally begins and the frenzy starts, the problem is that investors lose their rationality. As prices soar, they think, If I don't buy this right now, I'll miss out. This is known as the FOMO phenomenon—everyone else is making money, and I'm the only one left out, while others are profiting and rising. This can lead to irrational buying, so you need to be especially cautious about that. When the frenzy starts, instead of buying what has already risen, you should look for laggards to buy at the lows or trade the leaders with a focus on short-term trading.

Please make sure to consider various methods, such as setting a stop-loss and cutting losses firmly from below. I urge you again, as the market is proving that it is undeniably a bio sector. From this point on, we are entering a dangerous phase where emotions can easily take over, and buying large amounts at high prices can become tempting. Always make rational decisions; either buy on dips, prepare for latecomers, or wait for corrections. Most of you have likely already accumulated from the bottom, so don’t rush to sell. Wait patiently, as those who are more steadfast will ultimately make more money. I believe that a time will come when being patient will pay off significantly.

I believe that trading with a long-term perspective will be very helpful. So, let's wrap up today's weekly insight here. Please make sure to do additional research on the stocks we discussed today before making any trades. I will see you next week. You all worked hard this week, thank you for your efforts.

[위클리 인사이트] 바이오는 이런 애들만 보면 됩니다

주식전문가 한균수 채널입니다.

✉️ kyunstock@naver.com

한균수의 주식사용설명서

연방준비제도의 역사적인 금리 인하

미국 연방준비제도이사회는 4년 만에 처음으로 금리를 인하하기 시작하여 50bp라는 큰 폭의 금리 인하를 단행했습니다.

이번 금리 인하 결정은 고용과 인플레이션을 관리해야 할 필요성에 따라 중앙은행이 보다 적극적인 접근 방식을 취한 것입니다.

이번 금리 인하가 주식 시장에 미치는 영향은 불확실하지만, 고용 지표 변화에 대응하기 위한 예방 조치로 보입니다.

금리는 시장에 제한적이고 업종별로 영향을 미치며, 금리 변동과 전체 주가 사이에는 뚜렷한 상관관계가 없습니다.

바이오테크, 재생에너지, 전기차와 같은 업종이 금리 인하의 영향을 가장 많이 받으며 최근 몇 주 동안 바이오테크 업종이 큰 영향력을 보였습니다.

다가오는 금융 투자 마감일과 여론의 잠재적 변화도 시장의 반응에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

자가면역질환 바이오시밀러 및 관련 분야의 주요 기업들

자가면역질환 바이오시밀러 분야의 선두 기업들에는 이제 중견 기업들도 합류하고 있습니다.

이 분야의 상위 5개 플랫폼 기업은 알테오젠, AB 바이오, 리간드, 캠프 바이오, 프릴 바이오이며, GI 이노베이션도 주목할 만한 기업입니다.

주요 중점 분야로는 이중특이항체, 항체-약물 접합체, 지속형 전달 시스템, 방사성 치료제, 유전자 편집, CAR-T 및 NK 세포 치료, FDA 승인, 생물학적 보안, 암 검진을 위한 액체 생검 등이 있습니다.

샤페론은 아토피와 비만 관련 문제를 치료하는 데 주력하는 회사입니다.

큐리옥스 바이오시스템즈는 자동화된 세포 분석 기술을 제공하며, 보로노이는 비소세포 폐암 치료 분야에서 진전을 보이고 있습니다.

생명공학 섹터의 움직임은 투자자들의 열광으로 이어질 수 있으므로 주식 투자에 신중하게 접근하고 랠리 중에는 후발주 또는 단기 매매를 고려하는 것이 중요합니다.

현재 바이오 섹터 시장에서는 손절매를 설정하고 손실을 줄이는 것이 중요합니다.

감정에 휩쓸려 고가에 충동적으로 매수할 수 있으므로 이성적인 판단을 내리는 것이 중요합니다.

인내심과 장기적인 관점이 성공적인 트레이딩의 핵심이며, 거래하기 전에 논의되는 종목에 대한 추가 조사를 하는 것이 좋습니다.