미국 달러 강점, 약점 및 경제적 영향

달러 강세는 미국 소비자와 생산자에게 각기 다른 영향을 미치며 대통령 경제 어젠다를 복잡하게 만듭니다.

### 미국 달러의 복잡한 역학 관계: 강점, 약점 및 정치적 의미
* 💵 2022년 미국 달러는 10년간의 성장에 힘입어 **2000년대 초반 이후 최고치**를 기록했지만, 2024년 8월에는 대부분의 주요 통화 대비 절상되었음에도 불구하고 **하락 추세**를 보이기 시작했습니다.
* 📉 달러 강세는 다른 글로벌 중앙은행의 움직임과 대조되는 **연방준비제도의 금리 인상**에 영향을 받아 미국의 정치적 영향력에 영향을 미칩니다.
* 🏭 달러 강세는 구매력을 높여 미국 소비자에게 혜택을 줄 수 있지만, **국내 물가 상승**으로 이어지고 특히 **수출에 의존하는 제조업 분야의 미국 근로자에게 부정적인 영향**을 미칠 수도 있습니다.
* 🌍 특히 인플레이션 기간 동안의 달러 가치 상승은 **2022년 3월부터 시작된 연준의 금리 인상**과 관련이 있지만, **2024년 8월에는 투자자들이 금리 인하를 예상**하면서 달러 인덱스가 하락했습니다.
* 📊 트럼프 전 대통령과 바이든 대통령이 시행한 수입 관세도 달러 가치와 무역 수지에 영향을 미쳤으며, **높은 관세는 잠재적으로 미국 제조업체의 비용을 증가**시킬 수 있습니다.
* 🤔 역사적으로 대통령들은 **달러 가치 하락을 초래하는 조치**를 취해왔으며, 이는 정책 입안자들이 달러 강세와 경제적 영향에 대해 미묘한 균형을 유지해야 한다는 것을 보여줍니다.
* 🔍 미국이 인플레이션 문제에 직면함에 따라 향후 달러의 안정성에 대해 **연방준비제도, 백악관, 의회의 신중한 고려**가 필요하며, **대체 통화가 장기적인 관심사**로 부상할 가능성이 있습니다.
* 💡 궁극적으로 달러는 여전히 세계의 지배적인 통화이지만, **급격한 경제 또는 지정학적 변화**가 발생하면 달러의 지위가 도전받을 수 있으므로 향후 궤적을 모니터링하는 데 주의를 기울여야 합니다.

In 2022, the dollar reached its highest level since the early 2000s after experiencing a decade of sustained growth. As of August 2024, the dollar has been trending downward. Still, the dollar has appreciated against most major currencies in 2024. The US dollar has stayed stronger than the rest of the world for a number of factors, not the least of which is that the Fed has kept interest rates elevated while some other global central banks have been moving in the other direction. The power projection of the United States is greater when the US dollar is strong, and as the US dollar becomes weaker, it's less capable of projecting political power. But on the other hand, more American workers are employed. The people who benefit from the strong dollar are usually different people than would benefit from the weak dollar. A strong dollar may reflect economic strength, but it can have downsides for American consumers. The strong dollar tends to help consumers because it gives them more purchasing power, but it

also means, generally speaking, that prices are going to be higher at home. So, there's a balance there. And striking that balance is a really difficult thing. The US president doesn't always want a strong dollar. As a result of that, presidents have taken direct actions that led to the significant devaluation of the dollar. We've been hurt, in my opinion, very badly by our own Federal Reserve, who has also created a very strong dollar. That's something nice about a strong dollar, but it makes it much harder to do business outside of this country. Here's what a strong or weak dollar means for American consumers, and how that could impact a president's economic agenda. The dollar's value depends on economic conditions in the US and around the world, so it's difficult to label a strong dollar as simply good or bad. Overall, I actually don't like the word strength because that has positive connotations. And really what we just mean is that it's more expensive relative to where it was before.

So dollars can buy more foreign things than it was before. If you're somebody who likes to vacation a lot, you go overseas. If you have a strong dollar, you get a very favorable exchange rate, and you can buy more stuff. But a strong dollar can also have its downsides. It's less good if you want to sell things to people who have those currencies because it means that everything you're selling is more expensive. It's possible demand for U.S. goods abroad would decrease if international consumers couldn't afford to buy those goods. American workers could then be negatively impacted. A strong dollar is generally bad for growth and can lead to layoffs, particularly in manufacturing, which is heavily exposed to global trade. And you can see empirically in the US in particular these big declines in manufacturing employment when the dollar appreciates a lot. You saw this in the early 80s. You saw it in the early 2000s.

Usually, a very weak economy boosts your exports because what you're trying to sell to the rest of the world is cheaper. So, in that way, a weak currency can benefit on the trade side and actually help a country earn some hard currency from somewhere else. But it also means importing is very expensive because your currency doesn't buy much. The dollar really started to appreciate when we started to see the first flare-up of inflation. It began back in 2021. It really accelerated in 2022, and the Fed had to step in and start raising interest rates to control inflation, and that in turn had an upward pressure on the dollar. And it has stayed pretty consistent since then. There's volatility. There always will be volatility with the dollar. But it was pretty much with the ascent of inflation where we really saw that pronounced move higher. The Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in March 2022 in an attempt to slow down the economy and

lower inflation. But as of August 2024, the dollar index has been moving downward as investors anticipate rate cuts. That the Fed, as it raises interest rates, makes the dollar a more attractive investment vehicle around the world. So it's going to raise the value of the dollar when you get that nice risk-free investment that you can just buy dollars or dollar-equivalent type of investments, that you get a very nice return on them. And that's not been the case for a long time. So higher interest rates do tend to push up the value of cash and cash equivalents for investors. On top of that, tariffs on imported goods can influence the dollar's value. The dollar is the world's dominant currency. It's used by an overwhelming number of nations and companies as the way to pay for the transfer of goods and services in an increasingly dominant world trading system. The dollar is used as a benchmark for other nations to conduct

their foreign exchange policies, notably China. Imposing tariffs on imports or negotiating trade deals can influence the balance of trade, which affects the demand for and value of the dollar. During his time in office, former President Trump implemented tariff policies against Chinese imports with the stated goal of addressing trade imbalances and protecting specific American industries. President Biden also implemented tariffs on $18 billion worth of Chinese imports. Many experts believe those tariffs worsened the U.S. trade deficit, which may have contributed to the appreciation of the dollar. If you have big imbalances in trade across countries, then that is destabilizing. It could actually be the case that tariffs make the currency go up. The textbook answer is that tariffs hurt your exporters because your currency appreciates, and then they're less competitive in foreign markets. The tendency is to think that you can preserve American jobs by putting on high levels of tariffs. But the high levels of tariff will make imported goods also more

expensive for American producers who are using those goods in the products that they themselves make. And this was the case with the Trump tariffs on steel and aluminum. We've now got some quite good empirical studies of this. It didn't create very many new jobs in steel and aluminum production, but it did increase the cost of steel and aluminum for American manufacturers and made them, as a result, less competitive. But often presidents have been upset about the particular policy that the Fed is conducting. Trump is no exception. The Federal Reserve is a very interesting thing, and it's sort of gotten it wrong a lot. And he's tending to be a little bit late on things. He gets a little bit too early and a little bit too late. I feel a president should have at least say in there. Yeah. From a practical perspective, officials, presidents, Federal Reserve chairs, those kind of things. They try to stay out of the way of the dollar.

They try to traditionally not move the dollar one way or another because it does cut both ways. And it's a very difficult thing to do. So it has been a tradition that top-level policymakers do stay away from that. Of course, Trump is the exception to a lot of rules, and that's one of them that he was more vocal about the way he wanted the dollar to go. Senator JD Vance, former President Trump's 2024 running mate, has also expressed concern about the impact of the strength of the dollar. In some ways, you can argue that the reserve currency status is a massive subsidy to American consumers but a massive tax on American producers. President Biden dismissed concerns about the strong dollar in October 2022. I'm not concerned about the strength of the dollar. I'm concerned about the rest of the world. Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris has not commented about the strength of the dollar. The Biden administration, as well as the Harris and Trump campaigns, did not respond to CNBC's

request for comment in time for publication. Presidents in the past have taken direct actions that led to the depreciation of the dollar, such as President Richard Nixon when he suspended the gold standard in August 1971, or when President Ronald Reagan put together a coordinated effort with other global economies to depreciate the value of the dollar in 1985. The best way of managing the decline of the dollar was by this internationally agreed operation. If you try to do it unilaterally, you get much more in the way of weird consequences. Unintended consequences. Nixon's decision to close the gold window was indeed taken unilaterally. There was no need to consult Congress. Nixon promised, when he made this decision, that it wouldn't have any effect on American prices, and that was absolutely untrue. Prices rose, and the 1970s was the period that some economic historians consider as the great inflation in the United States.

But the other thing that really affects what the level of the dollar will be is what the fiscal position of the United States is. That's a decision that then depends on Congress, and it's going to be obviously something that can't be done by the president just by saying this. He can't say we're going to have a big tax increase or we're going to get a tax reduction. But he's got a bully pulpit, and he would be in a good position to do this. The idea would be if the president has some kind of congressional leverage, he's going to push through, or she is going to push through the agenda that they want to push through. As the US grapples with the latest bout of inflation, policymakers at the Fed, White House, and in Congress will have to consider the long-term implications of the dollar's future stability. We tend to think that nothing could ever dislodge the dollar from this pre-eminent

status as the world's currency, and I think that that view is overblown and ultimately will be challenged. One possibility is getting rid of the US dollar altogether and replacing it by cryptocurrencies. I think if they put that forward very, very clearly as a campaign proposal, it would produce horror. The world's reserve currency, which the US dollar is, usually has an independent central bank. It has a strong, usually military backing to provide that security, and it has a deep and liquid bond market that foreign investors can invest in. When we've seen concerns about events in the global economy, whether it's the economy or geopolitical events, the dollar has gone up, not down. It's seen as a safe haven. So you'd really, in order to see something change there, we really need a drastic set of circumstances. Is the global reserve currency issue something to worry about in the next six months? The next year? The next two years?

No, but it's something to be keeping an eye on further out into the future.

How A Weakening Dollar Can Help American Consumers

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미국 달러는 2022년에 최고치를 기록했지만 주요 통화 대비 절상에도 불구하고 2024년 8월 이후 하락 추세를 보이고 있습니다.

달러 강세는 미국의 금리 인상으로 인해 발생하며, 미국 노동자들에게도 혜택을 주는 동시에 정치적 힘을 과시하는 이중적인 영향을 미칩니다.

달러 강세는 소비자에게 더 많은 구매력을 제공하지만 국내 물가 상승으로 이어질 수 있어 경제에 미치는 영향의 균형을 맞추기가 어렵습니다.

경제 약세가 통화와 무역에 미치는 영향

경제가 약해지면 상품 가격이 저렴해져 수출이 늘어날 수 있지만, 수입 가격이 높아지기도 합니다.

달러 가치 상승은 2021년 인플레이션 상승으로 시작되었으며, 이후 연방준비제도의 금리 인상이 달러 가치에 영향을 미쳤습니다.

수입품에 대한 관세와 무역 불균형도 달러 가치에 영향을 미칠 수 있으며, 높은 관세는 잠재적으로 통화 절상으로 이어져 수출업체의 경쟁력에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

관세와 달러 강세가 미국 생산업체에 미치는 영향

트럼프의 철강 및 알루미늄 관세는 미국 제조업체의 비용을 상승시켜 경쟁력을 떨어뜨리고 해당 산업에서 새로운 일자리를 창출하지 못했습니다.

연방준비제도의 정책은 일관성이 없었으며, 전통적으로 대통령은 달러 조작에 관여하지 않았지만 트럼프는 달러 강세에 대한 자신의 욕구에 대해 더 큰 목소리를 냈습니다.

강달러는 미국 소비자에게는 보조금이지만 생산자에게는 세금으로 여겨져 왔으며, 바이든 행정부는 그 영향에 대한 우려를 일축했습니다.

대통령의 행동과 달러의 가치 하락

1971년 닉슨의 금본위제 중단과 1985년 레이건의 조율된 노력 등 전직 대통령들은 달러 가치 하락을 초래한 직접적인 조치를 취한 바 있습니다.

닉슨의 일방적인 결정은 의도하지 않은 결과를 초래하여 물가 상승과 1970년대의 대인플레이션으로 이어졌습니다.

의회의 영향을 받는 미국의 재정 상태는 달러 가치를 결정하는 데 중요한 역할을 하며, 대통령의 의회 영향력은 재정 변화에 대한 의제에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

세계 통화로서 미국 달러의 미래

미국 달러를 암호화폐로 대체한다는 생각은 극단적인 것으로 여겨지며 지지를 얻지 못할 것으로 보입니다.

세계 기축 통화로서의 미국 달러의 지위는 독립적인 중앙은행, 군사력, 탄탄한 채권 시장의 뒷받침을 받고 있습니다.

역사적으로 글로벌 이벤트에 대한 우려가 투자자들을 달러로 이끌었지만, 달러의 지위에 큰 변화가 생기려면 급격한 상황이 발생해야 하므로 당장의 우려보다는 장기적으로 지켜봐야 할 문제입니다.