Warren Buffett has a staggering $280 billion of his investments in cash. This has many people speculating about the reasons for that. In this video, we'll look at what those reasons might be and what investors can learn from it. Today's video is sponsored by Saxo, an award-winning UK investment platform. Let's begin by digging into those cash reserves and the reason for them. Now, if we look at the cash and cash equivalent held by Berkshire Hathaway, you can see that it has spiked up a lot recently, such that the latest reading would be $277 billion. However, this probably isn't the right way to look at the cash holdings overall, and that's because the size of Berkshire's assets has also been increasing hugely over time. Because it's been such a successful investment manager, its market capitalization is now over $1 trillion. So, what we should really be comparing is the size of the cash holdings relative to the total assets of the company, and that's what you can see here again. What we can see

is that recently those cash holdings have been increasing rapidly, but as a proportion of the total assets, it hasn't been trending upwards. It's only been moving up rapidly recently, such that currently, it makes up about 25% of the overall assets. And in fact, we'd have to go all the way back to 2005, which was ominously the lead-up to the global financial crisis. That's when the cash reserves for Berkshire Hathaway were as high as they are now in proportion to its total assets. So, is this simply a result of Warren Buffett thinking there's going to be a terrible crash in equity markets? Well, just as in 2005, that's not the case. Now, one of the reasons why the cash holdings are so high is that Warren Buffett has recently sold 56%, just under, of his stake in Apple. And by selling Apple and some other stocks, he's got an after-tax realized gain of about $47 billion. So, in total, the cash holdings of the company are now up by

about $88 billion relative to the previous quarter. Where did the money go? Well, it went into short-term US treasuries, which makes sense given that that's the juiciest part of the US yield curve right now. By juicy, I simply mean it has the highest yields. Now, these sales of Apple are not a recent thing; we've seen it for some time now, but the rate of sales of Apple stock has picked up over the course of 2024. Now, he did actually say in the shareholders' meeting in May that he was actually going to keep Apple as one of the largest holdings of equity for Berkshire Hathaway, alongside his other favorite long-term investments like Coca-Cola and American Express. And certainly, according to the FT, Apple has done him proud. It's returned nearly 800% return since Berkshire first disclosed its investment in Apple. And if we look at the latest 13F filings, and this is from Yahoo Finance, you can see that Apple is still by far his largest stock holding, at least for companies that he doesn't

own outright. It makes up 30% of his portfolio, and the next largest holding is Bank of America Corporation, which is less than half that size. So, why is it that he hasn't redeployed that cash back into the equity market? Well, I think there are four reasons for that, which we'll discuss in a moment. Today's video is sponsored by Saxo. If you're an investor looking for a premium investment experience without premium prices, Saxo has revamped its fee structure and platforms to give you better value and more control. UK investors enjoy commissions of just £3 per UK trade and $1 per US trade, plus Saxo charges no custody or platform fees, and currency conversion fees are just 0.25%. Saxo Trader Go is for everyone, offering intuitive tools and extensive charts, while Saxo Trader Pro is designed for the pros, featuring advanced features like algorithmic orders and multiscreen setups. Integrate third-party tools or use Saxo's APIs for an even more tailored experience with access to over 70,000

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opportunities come in frequently when it's raining gold. Reach for a bucket, not a thimble. That was from his 2009 letter to shareholders when he was talking about how things like municipal bonds, corporate bonds were ridiculously cheap relative to US treasuries. And he actually said, We back this view with some purchases, but I should have done far more. So his only regret was that he didn't have more dry powder, more cash to deploy when those opportunities arose. But the thing to remember is that he does have insurance companies like Geico, and that means that he has to keep cash on hand in order to be able to pay out if there are some big claims. So some of that liquidity is not available to invest in stock markets; it has to be kept in liquid, safe investments like US treasuries. Now there were other opportunities in 2009. It wasn't just about fixed income. He bailed out Goldman Sachs, GE, Bank of America, and in return for providing them with capital when they were almost busted, he actually got

a very good dividend, 10% for example, from his investment in Goldman Sachs, and that generated 500 million dollars a year in dividends for Berkshire Hathaway. The second reason why I think Warren Buffett is not deploying his capital is to do with the economy and concerns about a potential recession and also valuations. There just aren't many bargains in the investment space in which Warren Buffett can invest. Remember that if you have a trillion dollars to invest, to have a meaningful investment, you have to invest a huge amount of capital, and that means that midcaps and small caps, which in the US are now reasonably valued, in fact, they traded a big discount to the S&P 500, say the large-cap space. Those are stocks which he simply cannot buy, and if we look at almost any valuation measure for the US market here, you can see the forward price-to-earnings multiple. That's the number of dollars you pay today for every forecast dollar of profit over the next 12 months. That's currently at roughly 21 times. That's far

above the 10e average, which is 17.9, and above the 5-year average, which is 19.4. So, given the fact that Warren Buffett likes a bargain, he likes to buy from Mr. Market when he's in a state of despair. Clearly, that's not the case right now. Mr. Market is still in a state of euphoria. The third reason is to do with interest rates. Given that the risk-free rate, that's the rate on very short-term US treasuries, is currently over 5% in the US. Well, why not use that? Warren Buffett is, after all, an opportunist, and he's put lots of money into the T-bill market, which is that short end of the US yield curve. Now, this graph is from the FT, and it shows you the interest income on treasuries, but also the dividend income on stocks. And notice how it surged recently. It was only 1.4 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021, but by the second quarter of 2024, that had surged to just under $7.

billion. And given he's just plowed another 80 billion into T-bills during the second quarter, it's likely that that interest income will rise further. This is money which is in safe powder form, ready to commit very rapidly if an opportunity arises. And furthermore, it's earning a pretty good rate of interest of 5%. The fourth reason, which I think is a very important one, which Warren Buffett mentioned in his May shareholders meeting, is to do with capital gains tax. And as he grated out in his now quite fragile voice, bless him, he said, We don't mind paying taxes at Berkshire, and we're paying a 21% federal rate on the gains we're taking in. That rate was 35% not long ago, and it's been 52% in the past. And talking about the federal government, he says, They don't own the assets, but they own a percentage of the earnings, and they can change that percentage any year. And the percentage that they've decreed currently is 21%. And I would say with

present fiscal policies. I think that something has got to give, and I think that higher taxes are quite likely. And then it goes on to say that if the government wants to raise its capital gains tax rate, then it can. But the reasons he gives for doing that are interesting. He says they may decide that someday they don't want the fiscal deficit, that's the difference between the money which the government earns in taxes mostly and how much it spends. If there is a deficit, of course, they have to plug the difference with new debt. He says the government may not want the fiscal deficit to be this large because that has some important consequences. And they may not want to decrease spending a lot, and in fact, I think that's true of both presidential candidates. They're not talking about cutting spending. And he says they may decide they'll take a larger percentage of what we earn, and we'll pay it. So by selling these shares now, including Apple, he's paying a lower capital gains tax. He says that he might

pay in the future when the US government may raise capital gains tax. Let's conclude then with what this means for us. The first point, which I think affects us as much as it affects Warren Buffet, is about valuations, and the US is looking expensive. I don't think that means that if you're earning, saving, and investing, you should hold money back from the market. That usually is a mistake because valuations can stay high for a long period of time. However, if I did have a large amount of capital to invest right now, I'd probably do it quite cautiously, and I'd drip-feed it, waiting potentially for some better opportunity down the road. And because we can invest in small caps, maybe put some money into those cheaper parts of the US market and into other countries which are cheaper than the US. The second point is about dry powder. Now, personally, I've got about 10% of my total wealth in very safe investments, which are very liquid, so if an opportunity did come along, I'm ready to deploy that capital and to buy.

risky assets at a depressed price. So, I think that's a great lesson. Don't put too much thought into these very low-risk assets because they do present a cash drag on your return. They will underperform equity long-term, but certainly for now, with valuations this high, having some dry powder is not a bad idea. In a related point, given the very high rates of interest at the short end of the yield curve, both in the UK and the US, we see rates above 5% as I make this video. Yes, they're going to cut those rates as inflation has now come down, but I think that cutting process will be gradual, and it'll be to rates of around 3%. Why not capitalize on that while those rates are good? I think being opportunistic about that certainly makes sense. And remember that short end of the yield curve is roughly what you earn with a money market fund, which makes the investment very easy. Alternatively, if you're buying single guilts, for example, you can simply have a bond ladder that

runs at the short end of the curve, and the final point about capital gains tax and the real possibility that it's going to increase in future is an interesting one, which applies to us too, certainly in the UK. Many people have been selling things and paying a smaller amount of capital gains because they expect the Labour government will increase capital gains tax. The same is probably true in America for the same reasons, which is a high debt-to-GDP ratio, no cuts in spending, and a desire to increase revenue through higher taxes. Now, capital gains tax may be a more acceptable tax to increase politically rather than income tax because it affects primarily the wealthy. So, I suspect that's going to be on the to-do list for many of the developed market governments around the world if they want to increase their tax revenue. Now, given the big caveat that Warren Buffett's portfolio with Berkshire is very different from us in terms of circumstance, investment horizon, I think it does have some interesting takeaways though for that we mentioned about

valuation dry powder risk-free rates being high, but also the tax changes that could be around the corner. I don't think what he's signaling with this very large cash buffer is that he sees a huge selloff in the future. He can't predict that any more than we can, but I think the real lesson from Warren Buffett is about the longevity of investment. Really, investment is about getting good returns for a long period of time rather than trying to get spectacular returns over a very short period of time. That's gambling. Now, don't forget our offer from Saxo. They're offering a welcome bonus for PensionCraft viewers, which is worth up to £200 back on your online trading fees, but terms and conditions apply, and you can learn more about that by clicking on the link in the description below. And as always, thank you for listening.

Warren Buffett’s $280 Billion Cash Pile Explained

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Warren Buffett’s $280 Billion Cash Pile Explained

Warren Buffett’s $280 Billion Cash Pile Explained

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