미국 증시, FOMC 의사록과 지정학적 긴장 속에 상승세 이어가다

인플레이션 기대감이 완화되는 가운데 연준이 향후 금리 인하를 시사하면서 주식 시장은 상승세를 보였습니다.

### 시장 인사이트: 지정학적 긴장과 FOMC 의사록에 따른 주가 강세
* 📈 10월 9일 주식 시장은 지정학적 긴장이 지속되고 있음에도 불구하고 **S&P 500 지수는 0.71% 상승하여 사상 최고치인 5,719**를, **나스닥 지수는 0.60% 상승한 10,290**을 기록하는 등 큰 폭의 상승세를 보였습니다.
* 💵 10년 만기 미 국채 수익률은 **4베이시스 포인트 상승한 4.075%**로, 중국 증시 하락으로 자금이 미국 주식시장으로 다시 유입되면서 투자심리가 변화하고 있음을 나타냅니다.
* 📊 인플레이션 완화에 대한 기대감은 곧 발표될 **소비자물가지수(CPI) 보고서**에 의해 강화되었으며, 이는 **연방준비제도의 추가 통화 완화**를 뒷받침할 것으로 예상됩니다.
* 🌍 중국 시장은 정부의 새로운 경기 부양책 부재에 대한 실망감으로 **상하이종합지수가 6.6% 하락**하는 등 큰 폭의 하락세를 보였습니다.
* 💡 FOMC 의사록에 따르면 일부 위원들은 향후 통화정책에 대한 의견이 분분한 것을 반영해 **50bp 금리 인하를 강력히 추진**했지만, 일부 위원들은 **더 작은 25bp 인하**를 선호한 것으로 나타났습니다.
* 🛢 유가는 미국 원유 재고 증가와 중동의 지속적인 긴장으로 인해 **서부 텍사스산 중질유가 배럴당 0.45% 하락한 73.24달러**를 기록하면서 하락했고, 골드만삭스는 **분쟁이 격화될 경우 가격이 급등할 수 있다**고 경고했습니다.
* 📊 시장은 인플레이션과 지정학적 이벤트를 둘러싼 불확실성에도 불구하고 **3분기 GDP 성장률이 3.2%**로 예상되고 어닝 시즌에 대한 긍정적인 기대감으로 **점진적인 금리 인하에 대해 낙관적인 전망**을 유지하고 있습니다.
* 🔍 투자자들은 향후 시장 심리와 연방준비제도 정책 결정에 큰 영향을 미칠 **CPI 보고서와 주간 실업수당 청구 건수**를 포함한 향후 경제 데이터를 면밀히 모니터링하고 있습니다.

Hello, this is Kim Yeon-seok from the Korea Economic Daily, and I am here to present the market news on Wednesday, October 9th. Today, the hawkish minutes from the FOMC meeting were released, and while geopolitical tensions remain, the stock market showed strong gains. Let's take a look at the reasons behind this strength. The S&P 500 index rose by 0.71%, reaching an all-time high of 5,719. The Nasdaq increased by 0.60% to 10,290. The 10-year Treasury yield went up by 4 basis points to 4.075, getting closer to 4.1%. It seems that as Chinese stocks falter, money is flowing back into the U.S. stock market. The U.S. economy remains strong, and with the Federal Reserve stepping in to support through interest rate cuts, there is still significant hope for a year-end rally. The consumer price index (CPI) for September, which will be announced tomorrow, is expected to continue showing a trend of easing inflation, supporting the possibility of further monetary easing.

There are high expectations for what will be done. Due to the high valuations, the increase in stock prices hasn't been very significant, but they have been steadily rising little by little every day. On the 9th, amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the hawkish Federal Open Market Committee meeting in September, the S&P 500 index and Dow once again set all-time highs. Although government bond yields rose above 4%, stock prices did not decline at all; they continued to rise. The Chinese market experienced its worst day in four years due to disappointment over the government not announcing new stimulus measures, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 6.6% and the Shenzhen Index plummeting by 88.7%. In response, the Chinese Minister of Finance, Lanfo, held a press conference today, the 12th, to make some announcements. Additionally, ISIN in Beijing stated that they will also hold another press conference this Saturday. In our judgment, this is the situation.

후반까지 투자자의 관심을 끌어 두기 위한 것이며, 더 많은 재정부양책에 대한 기대를 이어가기 위한 것으로 본다. 재정부는 최소 2조 원 규모에 초장기 특별 국채를 언급할 것으로 예상한다. 이 금액은 9월 26일 중앙정치국 회의에서 요구한 필요한 재정 지출을 보장하기 위한 최소한의 금액일 것이다. 즉, 이 2조 원 이하로 나오면 실망한다는 얘기겠죠. 베이징이 이렇게 시간 요율을 가지려는 것은 미국 대선 탓일 수도 있다. 도널드 트럼프 전 대통령이 당선되면 60% 관세를 부과하겠다고 나설 텐데, 이에 대한 어떤 준비를 하고 있어야겠죠. 모건스탠리의 체탄 아야 이코노미스트는 트럼프 관세가 2025년 어느 때쯤 시행된다면, 중국에 이보다 더 나쁜 시기는 없을 것이라고 말했다. 중국은 이미 디플레이션이라는 도전을 겪고 있으며, 관세는 본질적으로 추가적인 부담이 될 것이다.

This indicates deflationary pressure. China needs to produce and export a lot, but if export routes are blocked, there will be more goods left in the domestic market. This could deepen deflation, which may manifest as a slowdown in investment. In response to the Trump administration's pressure from 2008 to 2019, China utilized fiscal and monetary easing to offset some of the negative effects of tariffs. However, considering the current state of the real estate market, it has been pointed out that it will be very difficult for China to simultaneously revive the real estate market and counteract the effects of tariffs. Doubts about China's economic stimulus have led to a decline in oil prices for two consecutive days. West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell by 0.45%, closing at $73.24 per barrel. Additionally, the U.S. Energy Information Administration announced that U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 5.8 million barrels, which was about double what was expected, contributing to the decline.

There is still tension regarding the Middle East. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant mentioned a strong retaliation against Iran. Just a moment ago, I saw Prime Minister Netanyahu holding a press conference, stating that we are the only ones fighting against Iran in the world. We fight on behalf of the entire free world. This is not just our war; he emphasized this responsibility significantly. It makes me uneasy. Today, President Joe Biden spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu in the morning to persuade him, but it remains unclear whether the persuasion was effective. Goldman Sachs has reported that if Israel attacks Iranian oil facilities and halts oil production, Brent crude prices could rise by about $10 to $20. The major stock indices started the morning trading flat, but...

As time passed, the increase continued to grow. There wasn't really anything special to discuss. The biggest event today was the release of the September FOMC meeting minutes in the afternoon. I was curious about this because the last time they lowered by 50 basis points, there was one vote in favor and one against out of twelve votes. I wondered if these people really thought that way. This will also give us insight into how people are thinking and how they might act moving forward. However, looking at the meeting, it became quite clear that Chair Jerome Powell pushed for the 50 basis point cut amidst differing internal opinions. While the majority supported a 50 basis point rate cut, some members mentioned a preference for a 25 basis point cut during this meeting, and a few other members indicated they could support such a decision. So, those who combined both views might lean towards a 25 basis point cut.

Originally, there are usually about two or three people, so when combined, it can be a maximum of six people, around five or six, who participate in the FMC voting, which totals 12 people. This situation led to a change of about 25 basis points, nearly half. However, since Chair Powell insists that if interest rates are not lowered quickly, economic activity and employment will weaken excessively, he emphasized this point. Some participants noted that this weakening is becoming evident, and addressing it would incur significant costs. Many participants expressed that if policy restrictions are reduced too early or too much, there is a risk that the progress on inflation could stagnate or reverse. Some participants pointed out that the uncertainty surrounding the long-term neutral interest rate complicates the assessment of the degree of policy restriction, and they suggested that a gradual reduction would be appropriate. Looking at this, it seems that there is a strong push to lower rates quickly and significantly.

They haven't lowered it yet. Several members suggested a gradual reduction, while others warned that if it is lowered too quickly, inflation might reverse. Bloomberg Economics and economists had some members in favor of a 5 basis point cut, and several in favor of a 25 basis point cut. The minutes indicate that Powell was pushing for a 50 basis point cut in September. The analysis showed that the number of members in favor of a larger cut was greater than those in favor of a smaller one. At that time, the 25 basis point reduction faction supported it, but then the employment report in September came out very strong. It will be crucial to see how they will adjust their arguments moving forward. Nick Timiraos from the Wall Street Journal reported that Fed officials discussed how much to lower interest rates in last month's meeting.

Opinions were divided; while the majority supported the final approved 50 basis point cut, others advocated for a smaller 25 basis point reduction. Here, the majority may actually represent the final tally. The bank stated that the minutes indicate that the FOMC might implement another cut, depending on how the labor market and inflation evolve as expected. If so, future interest rates and pace are likely to be gradual. Of course, the intensity of the discussion was already reflected in the dot plot from last September. In the dot plot, among the 19 members of the Fed, 10 were in favor of a 75 basis point cut, and nine wanted a 50 basis point reduction. Thus, the situation was almost evenly split, as shown in today's minutes.

According to the meeting minutes, almost all participants judged that the upside risks regarding inflation forecasts have decreased, while the downside risks related to employment have increased. Therefore, all participants agreed to lower interest rates. They also stated that if the data comes out as expected, it would be appropriate to adopt a more neutral stance. In other words, the inflation risks have diminished, and employment risks have increased, which is why nearly all participants agreed to lower interest rates moving forward. Overall, it is interpreted that interest rate cuts will continue, but rates have still risen today. The two-year yield has surpassed 4.02%, showing an upward trend in the bond market. Around 5 PM, the yield on the ten-year bond rose by 4 basis points to 4.075%, while the two-year bond increased by 4.3 basis points to record 4.022%. Today, the Treasury conducted...

The 10-year bond auction wasn't too bad, but it wasn't great either. The issuance rate was set at 4.06%, which is 0.04 basis points higher than the market rate at the time of issuance. Of course, that's not a bad thing; it was reasonably digested. So, this is the conclusion we've reached. It’s not that it’s particularly good, so it didn't play a role in lowering interest rates. In the FedWatch market, the betting on a freeze in November jumped from 14.8% the day before to 29.7% today. So, it's now 30% for a freeze, while 70% is still betting on a 25 basis point hike. However, the market seems somewhat satisfied with the FOMC minutes. Stock prices rose further towards the end of the day. Given the current economic situation, gradual interest rate cuts seem acceptable. Currently, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow estimates the third-quarter GDP growth rate at 3.2%, and Goldman Sachs also projects 3.2%.

Today, Costco announced its September sales in the afternoon, showing a 6.5% increase compared to the same period last year in the United States. In particular, the price volatility of gasoline has been significant; gasoline prices have decreased, which led to a drop in sales figures. However, if we exclude these factors and also account for exchange rate effects, sales actually increased by 99.3%. Of course, one could argue that more customers are visiting Costco, but it also indicates that people are still consuming. For this level of consumption to continue, job security is essential. Vitali Alize, the founder of Edang Chris Palli, stated that a robust economy and a gradual decrease in interest rates are better for the stock market than a quick drop in rates, which can destabilize the economy. As a result, the S&P 500 index rose by 0.71%, the Nasdaq by 0.60%, and the Dow increased by 1.03% overall.

Ellie mentioned that nine out of eleven sectors, including healthcare and IT, have risen. Only two sectors, utilities and communication services, have declined. The drop in communication services is attributed to Alphabet's sharp decline of 1.5%. The day before, it had already fallen by 2%. This was due to the federal bank ordering a complete opening of the app store, stating that competitors should not be limited to just downloading apps. Today, the Department of Justice announced that it is considering corporate divestiture to resolve Google's monopoly in the search market. In August, Google lost an antitrust lawsuit related to search, with the Department of Justice winning. The Department of Justice then asked for solutions from the judge, leading to today's announcement, which also involves Apple and search-related matters.

It is correct that a monopoly contract is being established for the engine, and they are paying tens of billions of dollars annually to ensure that a default value is prominently displayed in Google searches. This is the reason why they are sharing search data with other companies, and they are also considering structural solutions to prevent them from gaining advantages in search and artificial intelligence through the Android operating system and web browsers like Chrome. What does structural law mean? It means cutting things up structurally, referring to splitting and similar actions. The Department of Justice must submit specific solutions by November 20, and the final decision by the judge is expected around mid-next year. However, based on past precedents, the Department of Justice must prove that, aside from splitting, there are no fundamental solutions to the problem.

The issue cannot be resolved without a division; this needs to be proven. The court ruled 20 years ago in the Microsoft antitrust case that division was inappropriate. Bernstein mentioned that the Department of Justice's initial solution for the Google antitrust case has come out. As expected, it was broad, but the specifics were lacking. The final solution must be submitted by November 20. We were somewhat surprised by the solution we saw. It included matters related to search distribution data usage and so on, with notable mentions of AI-related solutions in each category. This suggests that if left alone, AI will still lead to monopolistic occurrences. In our view, what Alphabet least wants is to have one hand tied due to regulations while fighting in a competitive and extensive AI battle.

So, it's not that the business will be divided in the future, and that's the problem; it seems unlikely. As we fight, there will be some level of regulation, and if that happens, we won't be able to compete effectively in the AI market. Tesla dropped 1.41% ahead of tomorrow's RoboTaxi event, and AMD, which is also hosting an AI event tomorrow, fell by 1.03%. This isn't just a sell-off news. Tomorrow, the September CPI will be announced. The consensus for the month-over-month core CPI increase on Wall Street is 0.3%. JP Morgan's economist, Marko Kolanovic, noted that for it to deviate from the clearly expected 25 basis points, there needs to be a significant surprise. It would have to drop a lot or come in at around 0.3% or 0.2%. If something like 0.5% or 0.1% or even 0% comes out, then a 25 basis point cut is almost...

It is said to be deterministic. The reason is that everyone is observing that this slowdown trend is continuing. After the strong September employment report from UBS, the Fed is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points in each of the remaining two FOMC meetings this year, and then slow down to one cut per quarter next year. UBS economist Brian Rose noted that if the September CPI comes in higher than expected amid strong employment data, the likelihood of the Fed skipping a rate cut at the December meeting increases. In the September dot plot, nearly half of the participants indicated that a reduction of 50 to 75 basis points by the end of the year would be appropriate, which suggests that the additional cuts remaining this year amount to only 0 to 25 basis points. If the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rises by 0.2% to 0.3% compared to the previous month, the Fed can maintain a comfortable stance for further action, but if it rises by 0.4%, it could signal a different outcome.

If the numbers are high, there is a greater possibility of a freeze due to more serious concerns. So, if we see a result of 0.0 or 0.3, it means the market won't be significantly affected. Wells Fargo stated that the overall progress in prices will be confirmed in the September CPI report. They expect a core CPI of 0.3%, which, if not rounded, would be 0.26% or 0.24%. If it comes out as 0.2, it is still considered low. However, even if it shows 0.34, it rounds down to 0.3. Therefore, they anticipate a low result of 0.3. The key point is that the main concern is the service prices, particularly the most persistent one, which is housing costs. According to Wells Fargo's current market data, they believe housing costs, which rose by 0.5% in August, will decrease by 0.3% in September. Furthermore, even if it doesn't drop by 0.3%, that's acceptable because of the positive outlook from New York Federal Reserve's John Williams.

The president is not worried about housing cost inflation. This is not about the current market situation but rather reflects past market conditions, which are appearing late due to the current time lag. Therefore, it is explained that everything is fine. In today's FOMC minutes, it was also noted that the upside risks to inflation have decreased. Tomorrow morning, the weekly new jobless claims will be announced. Analysts expect around 230,000 claims, slightly more than last week's 225,000, but similar to the recent few weeks' average. If it does not exceed 250,000, the market will continue to feel reassured. Wall Street is closely watching Hurricane Milton, which is expected to make landfall in Florida tonight. Jefferies estimates that the damage could exceed $240 billion, significantly surpassing the $19.5 billion caused by Hurricane Katrina in 2005, which was the most damaging hurricane in history for the U.S.

This means that it could be one of the most damaging hurricanes in history. Moreover, Milton mentioned that Hurricane Helen, which passed through Florida two weeks ago, caused significant damage as it moved towards Georgia and North Carolina. It followed a similar path, although it was slightly lower, so it's uncertain whether it will reach North Carolina, but it will still have an impact. Therefore, these two storms could affect the employment data for October. A survey is currently being conducted to compile the employment report for the week of the 12th, and it is already underway. The survey is being conducted on the 10th, 11th, and 12th, and this week, Hurricane Thay is coming in. Many people have already lost their jobs due to Helen in that area, and the situation is worsening as more regions are affected.

It has been stated that expenditures and economic growth could be suppressed, and food prices could rise further. In the October employment report, JP Morgan indicated that the job losses due to Helen could exceed 100,000 in October. It is possible that more than 100,000 jobs have significantly decreased. Since this is a very external event, I am curious how the Fed will interpret it. If they misinterpret it, the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut increases. Anyway, this is very important data that will be released on November 1, but there is a possibility that it may be mixed with noise, which is causing some confusion. On Friday, financial companies, including JP Morgan, will report their third-quarter earnings. Tomorrow morning, Delta Airlines will be the first to release its report. HSBC has indicated that, ahead of the third-quarter earnings season starting on Friday, there may be a chance to exceed performance expectations due to low operating costs. Yesterday, Bank of America also...

HSBC's Wall Street consensus suggests that third-quarter profits will increase by about 4%. This marks a significant slowdown from the 12% growth seen in the second quarter, making it the lowest figure since the third quarter of 2023. Despite the solid performance in the second quarter, this outcome is surprising. HSBC also noted that their corporate sentiment indicators, which aggregate the statements from companies, show that businesses are not overly concerned, and the economy is not slowing down as much as the consensus predicts. Recent employment data has been stronger than expected, and GDP growth rate forecasts have been revised upward. Therefore, they believe there is a possibility of exceeding EPS expectations in this earnings season. Overall, they view the market situation positively. Charles Schwab's Oliver Renick provided an interesting analysis.

The market interest rates, NVIDIA, and cryptocurrency have shown significant price fluctuations, which has encouraged stock bulls. First, bond rates have recently risen, and they increased again today. This is attributed to economic data exceeding expectations. Given the current situation where we should be concerned about economic slowdown, the better-than-expected data and the resulting rise in interest rates are seen as positive. However, while the S&P 500 index may remain in a trading range, it is not expected to decline due to the rebound in yields. 

Second, the revival of NVIDIA's stock price is noteworthy. NVIDIA's stock has surged and is now approaching its all-time high, about 5% away. The market that is driving NVIDIA's rise is not expected to decline. He mentioned that NVIDIA's put options, which originated from the Fed's stance, are actually supporting the market and acting as a hero that lifts the index.

It is a good thing to have. The third point is about the primal instinct related to cryptocurrencies. The primal instinct refers to people buying frantically, leading to the formation of bubbles. The cryptocurrency market is still weak, and small-cap stocks continue to struggle. Oliver Nick mentioned that the Bitcoin chart looks very similar to the Russell 2000. This similarity is not coincidental. Cryptocurrencies, like small-cap stocks, have not made much money. I argue that the poor performance of cryptocurrencies is a sign of a healthy market, where high-quality assets tend to outperform, which indicates more sustainable growth. Ken O'J.T. advises buying when stock prices drop in preparation for a fourth-quarter rally. As geopolitical tensions rise and concerns about another hurricane and interest rate cuts grow, market volatility is increasing, with only four weeks left.

The presidential election is bringing uncertainty, but the third-quarter earnings season is expected to be as positive as the second quarter. Additionally, the probability of an increase in the fourth quarter of an election year like this one is 81.3%. This means it's not about returns; it's about the probability of rising or falling. The likelihood of an increase is 81%. Historically, there has been an increase. Canon Code J.T. mentioned that the interest rates and cycles are starting, the favorable seasonal dynamics at the end of the year are beginning, and a positive earnings trajectory is underway. Considering that the S&P 500 index and the equal-weighted S&P 500 index recently reached their highest levels, we still believe that now is not the time to confront the Fed or the market atmosphere. If a significant drop occurs, it could present an opportunity to prepare for a potential fourth-quarter rally. I will now take your questions. Hello, everyone from the U.S. stock market. Nice to meet you, Song Ji-young and Kim Seong-dong. Our member, 2nd Dan Dodgers, mentioned the Padres yesterday.

We won! Yes, Pia, Makari, Pyeongtaek, Ice Investigation, DK, Pablo, Yoo Seong-jin, Chiri, Seongdae, Ivision, Horengi, Selas, Bongsu Investment School, Uncle RC, Route 66, Wall Street Fox, Ah Zeta. It's nice to see you all. I'm Lee Sang-eun, and since the producer asked me to take questions, I'll start taking them now. 

HP mentioned that the volatility in the Chinese market is too high. David, Te Pa, Yoon Jae-sung, and Sia, there were no changes in your positions last week, right? Yes, David doesn't often answer my calls, so I couldn't ask him. Seong said there are no changes. If it drops more, he might buy more. He mentioned that it could drop even further. Of course, Yoon Sia doesn't guarantee any returns or anything like that. He is just saying what he is doing. He is not telling you to buy; he is just watching and planning to buy if it drops.

There could be more to drop, but he said he would buy a lot. The Dodgers and related production research facilities in the U.S. are investing 71 trillion won, while Japan is investing 27 trillion won. Korea is only offering corporate tax benefits. Does the Korean government have no plans for the future? Korea does have tax incentives, yes, there are tax incentives, but they are actively providing support. There was a lot of chaos due to hydrofluoric acid, right? Because of that, the people at Samsung Semiconductor were really demoralized. There was a former president named Jeon Dong-soo, who used to be in charge of the memory division. He once told me something that almost brought me to tears. Back in the late 70s and early 80s, when they were developing semiconductors, they had written Defeat Japan everywhere.

I used to work from Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, and I would only go home for about 20 days a year during holidays like Chuseok and Seollal. This is the semiconductor industry that has been nurtured this way. We need to do better now. However, things are going very well now, and it seemed natural until recently. So, difficult times may return. In fact, there are those who idolize the anti-Establishment, and then there are those who idolize the Establishment. So, I guess you have to be an anti-Establishment person. When the employment report came out poorly in October or November of 2001, there were experts who said, This is because of '91, so it's okay. I don't remember exactly, but at that time, I was in the securities department covering the Korean stock market. I don't remember well what was happening in the U.S. at that time, but I do remember that.

In March or April 2008, Chairman Bernanke stated that there would be no recession. And then, a recession came right after that. It's a painful situation. Reporter, what do you think about investing in leveraged ETFs? If it’s money that you can afford to lose, money that you can simply write off as lost and think, Well, I can earn it back, then it’s fine to invest with that. However, if it’s money that you absolutely cannot afford to lose, you should not invest in this. In my view, it’s not much different from lottery tickets or gambling at places like Kangwon Land; it carries a similar risk. You may feel confident, but the problem is that you don’t know which way it will go. And if you leverage it, it can turn around in an instant, and that’s the end of it. So, as much as possible, it’s better not to engage in this kind of investment. I really don’t recommend it.

When a company is split, is it listed separately, or does the split company have to be sold? For example, if it's a company like Google, they could decide to sell it outright or spin it off. A long time ago, AT&T spun off Baby Bell, which eventually became Verizon, and AT&T was divided into several parts. The wireless division became Verizon, and it was divided into six companies. That was the last large-scale split, but I don't think splitting will happen easily. It seems that splitting is not straightforward because it takes a long time. Even if a split occurs after a lengthy legal process, it will take years. So, I don't think we need to worry about that just yet. The method of splitting will be determined later. Recently, due to the impact of the typhoon, isn't it possible that housing costs could rise? Additionally, the unemployment rate might increase.

I'm curious if the war will cause inflation to rise sharply again. There are many concerns about this. A typhoon would likely have an impact equivalent to about one global market, but this is temporary. The United States consists of 50 states and is a very large country. In our country, when a typhoon hits, prices can soar, leading to inflation, which prompts the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates. However, even in a small country like ours, this isn't the case. The economy of the United States is nearly 100 times larger than ours, and currently, it is about seven to eight times larger. Therefore, even if inflation were to rise sharply due to this, it would be deemed temporary, and we would monitor the situation. We won't focus solely on one data point.

Every day, Jerome Powell comes out and talks about the totality of data, saying that he will judge based on the totality of the data. As for investor Kroke, is there a possibility for the value of the Korean won to rise? For the value of the won to increase, it would be good if the U.S. lowered interest rates, but first, our economy needs to improve. Additionally, our exports need to perform well. This means that from a supply and demand perspective, there should be many companies earning foreign currency. From a fundamental standpoint, the economy needs to improve, and the Bank of Korea should maintain high interest rates. However, it seems that the Bank of Korea will likely lower rates. If the fundamental conditions improve, that could sufficiently cover the situation. Do you all think the economic fundamentals will improve? Currently, there are ongoing issues with the population as well.

There are too many regulations in our country, and that is a problem. In fact, business leaders should be at the forefront, but politicians often treat them like their subordinates. They can call business leaders to the National Assembly at any time and yell at them. When you look back, the politicians themselves have done questionable things. They shout without any real evidence. Of course, I'm not saying that all business leaders are doing well. If they make mistakes, they should be held accountable. However, there are many instances where this is not the case. The culture of various sectors, including agriculture, industry, and commerce, still reflects a regulatory mindset. People tend to think that regulations should be implemented whenever a problem arises, but regulations do not solve everything. From my experience in the field, the nature of regulations is quite peculiar.

There are too many side effects, making it impossible for people to do anything. There are quite a few such things. Fundamentally speaking, right now, Samsung, Hyundai, and LG are our country's representative export companies. If we consider Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Motor, Kia Motors, LG Electronics, and SK Hynix, these are the key players. However, the situation is that the automotive sector is doing fine; the automotive industry is okay. But if Samsung Electronics continues like this, it will be difficult for the dollar to appreciate significantly. JP, the market sees that Israel is likely to attack Iran soon, but it seems that this has not been reflected in the market at all. There is an expectation that Israel will attack Iran, but so far, it seems to be a hopeful thought. What kind of hopeful thought? They think it will be a simple attack that will end quickly, like what happened four times in April. Even if they fight, they believe it will be manageable.

They say it will escalate on a large scale, but I'm a bit anxious about that. Earlier, they were talking about representing the free world and going to war with Iran, which is somewhat unsettling. This is because Iran is, after all, developing nuclear capabilities. However, if Iran develops nuclear weapons, who are they likely to use them against? Ideally, they wouldn't use them at all, but there's a possibility, right? Similarly, if Iran develops these capabilities, there is a chance they could use them, and the most likely target would be Israel. From Israel's perspective, they would want to take action before that development is completed. That's what is being discussed right now. Netanyahu, can I take one last question? Lat 6, you mentioned that despite signs of rising CPI inflation, the possibility of keeping interest rates steady might still exist, even with just one or two data points.

There has been a significant increase in the price index. When we examine the details, we find that factors that consumers dislike, especially in services, have risen considerably. Core service prices have increased a lot. This becomes a problem, especially when these factors are reflected in the prices of consumer goods. However, even if prices have risen significantly, people might take into account that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and housing costs have also increased. As I mentioned earlier, people may think, This is just a thing of the past; it's not the same now; it's okay. So, we need to analyze all of this thoroughly. I will explain this in detail during tomorrow morning's breaking news, which will be at 9:30 PM. I will provide a clear explanation and convey this information to everyone.

Let's talk about the news and the CPI together. I always exchange your successful investments. Show me the money, C.

[김현석의 월스트리트나우-10월10일] 전쟁 같았던 FOMC,파월이 밀어부쳤다…"11월도 25bp 인하"

한경 특파원들이 전하는 잠들지 않는 투자 뉴스

한경 글로벌마켓

S&P 500 지수와 나스닥 지수는 미국 경제 호조와 중국 증시에서 자금 이동에 힘입어 사상 최고치를 기록했습니다.

10년 만기 국채 수익률은 상승했고, 인플레이션 완화와 연방준비제도의 추가 통화 지원에 대한 기대감이 커졌습니다.

중동의 지정학적 긴장과 중국의 실망스러운 경기 부양책은 유가 하락과 글로벌 석유 생산 차질 가능성 등 시장 변동에 영향을 미쳤습니다.

9월 FOMC 회의록에서 얻은 인사이트

9월 FOMC 회의록에 따르면 금리 인하에 대한 의견이 분분한 가운데 파월 의장은 50bp 인하를 추진했습니다.

대다수가 큰 폭의 인하를 지지했지만, 일부 위원들은 25bp의 점진적인 접근을 주장했습니다.

회의록은 노동 시장과 인플레이션의 진전에 따라 향후 금리 인하 가능성을 시사했으며, 채권 시장은 수익률 상승 추세를 보였습니다.

채권 경매와 경제 지표의 혼합 신호

10년물 채권 경매의 발행 금리는 시장 금리보다 소폭 높게 형성되어 엇갈린 반응을 보였습니다.

FedWatch 시장은 현재 금리 동결 가능성을 30%로 전망하고 있으며, 주가는 FOMC 의사록에 대한 반응으로 상승했습니다.

5% 증가했으며, 법무부는 구글의 독과점에 대한 조치를 취하고 있으며 내년 중반까지 최종 결정이 내려질 것으로 예상됩니다.

AI 시장은 잠재적인 규제에 직면해 경쟁에 영향을 미치고 있으며, 테슬라와 AMD 주가는 예정된 이벤트를 앞두고 하락했습니다.

3%의 컨센서스 핵심 CPI 상승으로 큰 기대를 모으고 있으며, 큰 편차가 있을 경우 연준의 금리 인하 결정에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

허리케인 밀턴이 플로리다에 상륙하면서 상당한 피해가 예상되며, 10월 고용 지표에도 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

일자리 손실의 경제적 영향 및 시장 동향

허리케인 헬렌과 같은 외부 사건으로 인한 일자리 손실이 10월에 10만 개를 넘어설 것으로 예상되어 경제 성장과 식품 가격에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

JP모건과 델타항공을 비롯한 금융회사의 3분기 실적 발표는 이익 성장 둔화에도 불구하고 예상치를 상회할 수 있습니다.

시장 금리, 엔비디아의 주가 급등, 암호화폐 시장의 고전이 주식 시장의 변동성을 키우고 있으며, 4분기 랠리를 앞두고 있습니다.

시장 변동성 및 투자 전략에 대한 인사이트

연사로 나선 이상은 대표는 중국 시장의 높은 변동성과 주요 인사들의 포지션 변화가 없는 것에 대해 이야기합니다.

미국과 일본은 상당한 투자를 하고 있는 반면 한국은 세제 혜택만 제공하고 있습니다.

이 대표는 레버리지 ETF 투자의 위험성을 도박에 비유하며 손실을 감당할 수 있는 금액이 아니라면 투자하지 않는 것이 좋다고 조언합니다.

회사가 분할되면 AT&T와 Verizon의 사례에서 볼 수 있듯이 별도로 상장하거나 분사할 수 있습니다.

회사 분할 과정은 복잡하고 시간이 많이 소요되며, 완료하는 데 수년이 걸리는 경우가 많습니다.

자연재해나 경제 상황과 같은 외부 요인이 주택 비용, 실업률, 인플레이션에 영향을 미칠 수 있지만 이러한 영향은 일반적으로 일시적입니다.

한국의 주요 수출 기업은 삼성, 현대, LG, SK하이닉스이며 자동차 부문이 좋은 성과를 거두고 있습니다.

이스라엘이 이란을 공격할 가능성이 있다는 추측이 나오고 있지만 시장은 이 소식에 크게 반응하지 않고 있습니다.

CPI 인플레이션 상승과 핵심 서비스 물가 상승이 우려되지만 물가 상승에도 불구하고 금리가 동결될 가능성이 있습니다.