해리스, 토론 후 여론조사에서 근소한 차이로 앞서다

### 여론조사 인사이트: 해리스, 주요 유권자 역학 관계로 토론회 이후를 주도하다
* 📊 새로운 로이터 입소스 여론조사에 따르면 **카말라 해리스가 도널드 트럼프를 5점 차로 앞서며 지난 달보다 소폭 상승**한 것으로 나타났습니다.
* 📉 토론 후 격차는 **47-42이지만, 해리스가 4점 차로 앞섰던 8월과 2점 차로 앞섰던 7월에 비하면 변동폭이 미미**합니다.
* 🤔 여론조사에 따르면 **해리스의 활약이 전체 경선 판도를 크게 바꾸지 못했으며, 이는 현재 분열된 미국 상황**을 반영합니다.
* 🧠 유권자 인식의 주목할 만한 변화는 **58%가 해리스가 정신적으로 명석하고 도전에 대처할 수 있다고 보는 반면**, 트럼프의 지지율은 **46%로 떨어졌다는 점**입니다.
* 🗳 트럼프에 대해서는 회의적이지만 해리스에 대해서는 아직 잘 모르는 젊은 층과 정보가 부족한 미정 유권자들은 **두 후보 모두에게 여전히 도전 과제**입니다.
* 📋 해리스 캠페인은 긴 정책 목록보다는 **유권자들의 경제적 관심사에 공감할 수 있는 보다 차별화된 정책 공약**을 제시할 것을 촉구합니다.
* 🔄 2차 토론의 가능성은 **해리스 후보가 유권자들과 소통할 수 있는 중요한 기회**로 여겨지는 반면, **트럼프 후보 측은 토론에 다시 참여하는 것에 대한 위험 부담**을 고려하고 있습니다.
* 👥 로라 루머와 같은 논란의 여지가 있는 인물과 트럼프의 관계는 **광범위한 유권자층에 활력을 불어넣기 위한 전략적 선택**에 의문을 제기합니다.

카말라 해리스가 여론조사에서 소폭 앞서고 있어 토론 후 민주당의 낙관적인 전망이 나오고 있습니다.

A new national Reuters Ipsos poll has Harris ahead by five points. Let's take a look at that right now. CNN Terry Enten is here with much more. Harry, can you give us some context around that margin and the movement that you're seeing in polling post-debate? Yeah, I think it's rather important to point out that the Reuters Ipsos poll has actually been one of Harris's best. So, look, you get that five-point margin, right, that 47-42 that you mentioned post-debate, but that's actually not a lot of movement from where we were in August when Harris was up by four. Now, that is movement from where we were in late July when Harris was up by two. But the bottom line here is this, at least in the first polling that we're getting post this debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, maybe slight, slight, slight movement in Harris's direction, but not overwhelmingly so. So which I don't think

is really much of a surprise given the 50-50 nation we are right now. But the bottom line is, in the average of polls, Harris had a slight national lead. And at this particular point, I think she'll probably hold on to that, at least based upon this initial signal. Yeah. Didn't hurt her. Maybe. No, didn't. Also, it wasn't, you know, the nail in the coffin for a Donald Trump candidacy either, which is exactly what people expected with this debate in the 50-50 nation we are in right now. What is the biggest difference, though? You see in polls, these polls compared to those that came after the Biden Trump debate in June? Yeah, I mean, look, it all comes down to mental state and being able to deal with challenges. All right. So mental sharp. I can deal with challenges. Look at this. Back in the post-June debate, right. Look at that. 52% of voters said that,

In fact, Trump was mentally sharp. I can deal with challenges. Look at the Joe Biden number. It was just 26%. Now, look at the difference here. Look at this, 58% in the post-September debate. Paul said that Harris was mentally sharp and could deal with challenges. Trump's number actually dropped below 50%, down to just 46. So that 52 to 46. So this was the big change that I think a lot of Democrats are hoping for. When they switched out Biden for Harris, it came down to mental sharpness. And the bottom line is the clear majority of voters believe that Kamala Harris is mentally sharp and can deal with challenges. And the number for Trump that declined by six points between post-June and post-September, I think that's a very welcome sign for Democrats on the top line. Maybe not so much a movement nationally, but underneath the hood. I think Democrats really have to like what they see. In talking with people on

TV from the Harris campaign and then hearing from Democrats involved with the campaign. One of the things you hear is that everyone feels they did great in the debate. The question is, can it reach the undecided voters? Yeah, and I'm not sure they have an answer, at least not the answer they want yet. So it leads me to this question: What really is an undecided voter? Where are they and who are they? Yeah, well, look, part of the challenge here is that undecided voters are undecided because they're not really focused on this campaign. They are low-information voters. They tend to be younger. And likely, they didn't watch the debate. They may be seeing some social media on it, but they're hard-to-reach voters, and they may make the difference in this race. Are the undecided between the candidates or the undecided about whether they show up to vote? Well, I think a little of both. I think one important thing to note is

They probably have a pretty strong judgment about Donald Trump. They're skeptical about politics generally. They don't particularly like Trump, but they don't know very much about Kamala Harris. They're open to her, but they're also prepared to be disappointed by her as well. So a big task for the campaign is to continue to fill in the picture of her and particularly around sort of transactional issues about the economy. Like what? What is she going to do for me? On that note, one of the things you hear in the chattering class is, oh, you know, Kamala Harris needs more distinctive policy proposals. Is that what undecided voters want? Well, I don't know if you know, I don't think what she needs is a voluminous list of policies, but there may be a few signature policies that speak to the economic experience, quality of life experience of voters in which she wants to go deeper and drive with those voters to give a sense that, yeah, she gets it.

I think she might help out. I'll take a chance on her. But these voters are not going to be. This is not 2008, right? This is not. They're not going to be swept along here. They're going to grudgingly conclude that I'll take a chance on this, which is why the Harris team, I think, genuinely does want another debate, another chance to reach people who may not be paying attention. And the problem with her debate, John, performance, one of the problems with it is it came rather early in this. I mean, there's going to be an eternity between now and November. And so the other motivation for a second debate is it's a second chance to do well. And I think they're pretty confident she would. And I think Trump's people are like, you know what, this didn't benefit us very much. Why should we take the risk of doing another? Yeah, for all the arguing

that goes on out there inside a campaign. You do a debate. If he thinks it will help you, and you don't do it if you don't think it will help you. Full stop. Yes. You know, and that's, I think, the only analysis on the Trump team right now. They may change their mind because they think they need it, but I don't know if they'll change their mind. He may change his mind, and they keep goading him to try and change his mind by making it seem like he's not courageous enough to do another. I do want your take on the Laura Loomer thing. Donald Trump has been traveling the country with her. George Bush, when I covered him in 2000, used to say, You can judge the character of a man by the company he keeps. If Donald Trump is keeping company with this person who said just wildly racist things, yeah, you know, what? Does he get it wrong? anti-Semitic, by the way.

which is interesting, given Trump's rhetoric about that. I think in first of all, I don't pretend to live inside of Donald Trump's head, so I can't tell you exactly. But it may be that if there's a strategic reason, he's thinking, look, I got to get these people out who aren't particularly activated or I have to get my base out. And she speaks to that base and I don't really care what the rest of the world thinks. I'm speaking to these voters who may make the difference. And right now, this is a motivational race to try and get your base out. It's not a persuasion race. She can help persuade you. Look, he had all those influencers who are you know, there was a kind of exotic character to them, but they speak to like tens of millions of people. David Axelrod, next time, I promise there will be fireworks. Yes, please. Right. So I insist.

New poll reveals how voters are viewing Trump and Harris after the debate

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토론 후 여론조사에서 해리스가 근소한 우위를 점하다

새로운 로이터 입소스 여론조사에 따르면 토론 후 카말라 해리스가 47-42로 5포인트 앞서고 있는 것으로 나타났습니다.

이 여론조사는 8월 이후 해리스 후보의 움직임이 미미하며 전국적인 선두를 유지하고 있음을 나타냅니다.

여론조사 결과는 토론이 해리스와 도널드 트럼프 후보 모두에게 미미한 영향을 미쳤으며, 현재 전국적으로 50대 50으로 양분된 지지율을 반영하는 것으로 보입니다.

토론이 유권자 인식에 미치는 영향

9월 토론 이후 트럼프의 지지율이 52%에서 46%로 떨어지면서 트럼프의 정신력에 의문이 제기되었습니다.

카말라 해리스의 정신적 예리함과 문제 해결 능력에 대한 인식은 유권자들의 지지로 이어져 지지율이 58%까지 상승했습니다.

정보가 부족하고 젊은 층인 미결정 유권자는 선거에서 중요한 요소로 간주되기 때문에 캠페인이 이들에게 다가가는 데 어려움을 겪습니다.

카말라 해리스의 미결정 유권자들과의 도전

미결정 유권자들은 정치에 회의적인 시각을 가지고 있으며 트럼프를 특별히 좋아하지 않는 반면, 카말라 해리스에 대해서는 개방적이면서도 신중한 태도를 보입니다.

캠페인의 과제는 특히 경제 정책과 관련하여 해리스에 대한 명확한 그림을 제시하여 유권자의 신뢰를 얻는 것입니다.

해리스 후보 팀은 더 많은 사람들에게 다가가고 더 나은 성과를 내기 위해 2차 토론을 모색하고 있는 반면, 트럼프 후보 팀은 위험을 감수하는 것을 주저하고 있습니다.

도널드 트럼프의 선거 전략과 논란의 여지가 있는 연관성

도널드 트럼프의 팀은 토론의 필요성을 분석하고 있으며, 생각을 바꿀 가능성도 있습니다.

트럼프는 인종차별적 발언으로 논란을 일으킨 로라 루머와 함께 여행 중입니다.

연사는 트럼프의 인격과 판단력에 미치는 영향에 대해 의문을 제기합니다.

트럼프의 수사는 전략적으로 자신의 지지층을 활성화하고 변화를 가져올 수 있는 유권자를 확보하기 위한 것일 수 있습니다.

그는 광범위한 지지를 얻기보다는 자신의 지지자들과 대화하는 것을 우선시하는 것 같습니다.

그의 캠페인에 영향력 있는 인물을 참여시키는 것도 수천만 명의 사람들에게 다가가 동기를 부여하는 것을 목표로 합니다.