베트남의 경제 혁신과 향후 과제

베트남은 전쟁으로 폐허가 된 어려운 나라에서 활기차고 빠르게 성장하는 경제로 탈바꿈하여 빈곤 감소와 외국인 투자 유치에 큰 진전을 이루었습니다.

### 베트남의 번영을 향한 길: 빈곤에서 잠재력으로
* 📈 베트남 경제는 지난 10년간 **6.1% 성장**하며 빈곤 감소와 생활 수준 향상에 괄목할 만한 진전을 이루었습니다.
* 🛠 1986년 공산당은 도이모이 개혁을 도입하여 중앙 계획 경제에서 시장 중심 경제로 전환했고, 그 결과 **1인당 GDP가 300달러에서 현재 4,000달러로 성장**했습니다.
* 🌏 2000년 이후 베트남 경제는 **연평균 6.2%의 성장률**을 기록하면서 상당한 외국인 투자를 유치하고 다국적 기업의 허브로 자리 잡았습니다.
* 🏭 2022년 베트남 수출의 **40%를 차지할 전자제품**은 애플의 공급업체와 같은 기업들이 베트남에 대규모 공장을 설립하면서 성장의 주요 동력이 되었습니다.
* 🛣 베트남 경제는 무역 집약도가 높은 국가로, **상품 무역이 GDP의 185%를 넘어섰으며** 싱가포르와 마찬가지로 글로벌 공급망과 밀접한 관계를 맺고 있습니다.
* 🏦 2045년까지 고소득 국가가 되겠다는 목표를 달성하기 위해 베트남은 **일자리, 소득, 수출을 늘리고 국영 기업 부문의 문제를 해결**하며 **스타트업 생태계의 잠재력**을 활용해야 합니다.
* 👥 베트남의 젊은 인구는 빠르게 고령화되고 있으며, **2040년까지 60세 이상 인구의 비중이 12%에서 21%로 증가**할 것으로 예상되어 노동력 및 사회 보장에 문제가 될 수 있습니다.
* 🌐 장기적으로 베트남은 수출 주도의 저비용 경제에서 벗어나 보다 생산적이고 지식 기반 부문에 투자하고 **부패, 검열, 인권 침해와 같은 문제를 해결**하여 중간 소득 함정을 피해야 할 것입니다.

Not so long ago, when people heard Vietnamese, 
they often thought of the boat people — refugees who left Vietnam in large numbers 
after the fall of Saigon in 1975. For twenty years, this was the common image: 
desperate people escaping hardship. But times have changed dramatically. Many former refugees have returned to seek new careers and 
start businesses in a transformed Vietnam. Today, Vietnam is among the fastest-growing 
economies in Asia, with a growth rate of 6.1% over the last decade. While this growth 
rate does not surpass that of China and India, Vietnam has made more impressive progress in 
cutting poverty than both. In other words, despite not achieving the same level 
of economic growth, Vietnam has been more effective 
in addressing poverty and improving living standards for its population.

Vietnam's cities are bright and bustling, while the countryside, home to about 60% of the population, is not far behind the development levels of richer Thailand. Walking around Hanoi, Vietnam’s capital, you can feel boundless energy everywhere. People whiz by on scooters, buy and sell everything from phones to food in countless small shops, and rush to and fro to get to school or work. Vietnam is young, growing, and anything feels possible. It wasn’t always thus. A mere 35 years ago, the country was one of the poorest in the world. When the 20-year Vietnam War ended in 1975, Vietnam's economy was among the world's weakest, and growth under the government’s five-year plans was slow. By the mid-1980s, per capita GDP was stuck between $200 and $300. Then, in 1986, the Communist Party introduced

reforms called Doi Moi, or renovation, 
shifting from a centrally planned economy to a market-oriented one. This shift resulted 
in GDP per capita growing from $300 in that year to $4,000 today. When oversimplified, this 
story becomes a narrative of a top-down process, showcasing Communist intelligence and bravery. 
It was the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) that lifted the people out of poverty; it was 
the Communists who took the initiative. The real credit, though, goes to the Vietnamese 
people, who through their own efforts pushed the communist authorities belatedly to accept these 
market changes. It was the Vietnamese who lifted themselves out of poverty, mostly in spite of 
communist policy. Today, Vietnam's social and economic progress has made it the poster child 
of multilateral institutions like the World Bank. It's now a top choice for multinational companies 
and tourists seeking vibrant destinations.

Since 2000, Vietnam's economy has been on a fast track, growing even quicker than most other Asian countries, except China and India, with an average annual growth rate of 6.2%. This growth has attracted numerous big foreign firms. Initially, it started with apparel giants like Nike and Adidas, drawn by the availability of low-skilled labor. However, the landscape has since shifted towards electronics, offering higher-value products and better-paid jobs for more skilled workers. By 2022, electronics accounted for a whopping 40% of Vietnam's exports, a significant jump from just 14% of a much smaller pie in 2010. The trade tensions between the U.S. and China, beginning in 2018, have helped. In 2019, Vietnam produced nearly half of the $31 billion-worth of American imports that moved from China to other low-cost Asian countries.

On top of all that, with the increasing tensions 
between major powers and China's strict pandemic measures, along with rising labor costs, 
it's no surprise that many large companies are shifting their focus to Vietnam. Apple's 
biggest suppliers, like Foxconn and Pegatron, responsible for making Apple Watches, MacBooks, 
and more, are constructing large factories in Vietnam, poised to become the largest employers 
in the country. Other big names such as Dell, HP, Google, and Microsoft are also relocating 
parts of their production from China to Vietnam. These changes have the potential to bring even 
more growth and improve the lives of millions of Vietnamese people. That, in turn, could 
boost the popularity of the Communist Party, which has governed Vietnam as a single-party 
state since the war ended in 1975. Though trade and foreign investment 
helped Vietnam emerge from extreme poverty, can they make the country rich?

The economy of Vietnam is a developing mixed socialist-oriented market economy. It is often compared to China in the 1990s or early 2000s, and there are valid reasons for this. Both countries, under a one-party political system, shifted towards capitalism and prioritized export-driven growth. However, there are significant differences as well. While Vietnam is often labeled as export-oriented, this doesn't fully capture the extent of its foreign sales. Its goods trade surpasses a whopping 185% of its GDP. Few economies, aside from the most resource-rich nations or city-states heavily reliant on maritime trade, have ever been as trade-intensive. What sets Vietnam apart from China isn't just the volume of its exports, but also the nature of its exporters. Its strong ties to global supply chains and substantial foreign investment make it more akin to Singapore in some ways.

Since 1990, Vietnam has consistently attracted significant foreign direct investment, averaging around 6% of its GDP annually—more than twice the global average and surpassing China or South Korea over a sustained period. In 2023, investors from 111 countries and territories put their money into Vietnam, with Singapore leading the pack, investing over $6.9 billion, making up 18.6% of the total FDI inflow, a rise of 5.4% year on year. Japan followed closely in second place with nearly $6.57 billion, while Hong Kong ranked third with $4.68 billion. Relying too much on foreign direct investment (FDI) could leave Vietnam's economy vulnerable. Sure, FDI can bring in capital, technology, and expertise, but an overreliance on it exposes Vietnam to vulnerabilities such as sensitivity to external shocks. If there are big swings in the global economy or if the countries investing

in Vietnam change their FDI policies, it 
could hit Vietnam's economy pretty hard. With wages increasing in other parts of 
East Asia, global manufacturers found Vietnam appealing because of its low labor 
costs and steady exchange rate. This sparked a massive export boom, which now makes up 
93% of Vietnam's GDP. Over the last decade, 
exports from domestic firms have gone up by 137%, while those from foreign-owned companies 
have shot up by 422%. But the growing difference 
in performance between foreign and domestic companies is becoming a problem for Vietnam's 
growth. The country has become overly reliant on investment and exports from foreign companies, 
while domestic firms have lagged behind. Another significant factor dragging down 
Vietnam's growth is the performance of state-owned enterprises (SOEs), which make up 
one-third of the GDP but don't grow as fast as other companies. Despite reducing the number 
of fully state-owned enterprises by over 90%

since 2001, Vietnam still has work to do. The 
sector remains inefficient. To address this,   targeted equitizations, sustainable 
divestments, and transformation programs   could be implemented to make SOEs more 
competitive domestically and globally. Moreover, the country could tap the significant 
unrealized potential of its start-up ecosystem.   In 2019, only $741 million was invested 
in Vietnamese startups, while Indonesia   attracted $2.38 billion. It's not shocking that 
Vietnam has produced just one unicorn company,   compared to Indonesia's six. By fostering 
a more comprehensive ecosystem, Vietnam can   eliminate barriers to private entrepreneurship, 
make funding accessible for promising projects,   and create supportive environments for 
high-growth businesses to flourish. There are also some underlying challenges 
that raise doubts about Vietnam's ability to   continue expanding its manufacturing 
sector and attracting investments. Firstly, its labor productivity remains 
a concern. While there has been gradual

improvement in recent years, Vietnam still lags 
behind some of its Asian counterparts. In 2021, Vietnam ranked 136th out of 185 countries 
in terms of labor productivity. One reason for this is that 
the relatively low labor costs that once attracted investors have increased as Vietnam has developed, and the available workforce has started to 
shrink. Investors are now considering alternative destinations like Cambodia, Myanmar, and 
Bangladesh, where labor costs are a top priority. This is having an impact on Vietnam's 
manufacturing sector. Even though the sector's exports and foreign investment have increased, 
the value kept within the country hasn't risen accordingly. In simple terms, Vietnam is producing 
more goods over time, but it's not increasing the share of added value captured in the country. 
So, despite the manufacturing sector’s growing contribution to the overall economy, the value 
added by this sector remains flat. In fact,

in 2023, it even decreased by 0.37% compared 
to 2022. This is partly because of a fragmented   supply chain in various industries—Vietnam still 
relies heavily on imported goods for its exports. In recent years, investors highlight 
lingering concerns that can prevent   them from continuing to invest, 
especially in high-value-added,   high-tech industries. Although Vietnam has done 
a lot to improve the “ease of doing business,”.   These concerns range from a shortage of 
skilled labor for research and development,   or technical activities to language efficiency, 
potential uncertainty relating to labor rights,   and onerous applications that expatriates 
who want to work in Vietnam have to make. Despite its challenges, Vietnam, a country of 100 
million people, maintains friendly ties with the   world’s biggest economies. Thanks to its strategic 
position next to China and a long coastline,   both the U.S. and China are keen to strengthen 
their relationships with Vietnam. Last year,  

it was the only nation to host state visits 
from both Xi Jinping and Joe Biden. This careful balancing act could bring 
significant political and economic benefits. Eager to become wealthier, Vietnam is looking to strengthen diplomatic ties 
with affluent countries and encourages firms from South Korea and the U.S. to expand 
their production bases there. Recently, South Korea became a 
comprehensive strategic partner, joining a select group of Vietnam’s 
closest allies like China and Russia. The Communist Party of Vietnam needs to boost jobs, income, and exports to reach its goal of becoming 
a high-income nation by 2045, no easy task when its gross domestic product per capita is around 
$4,000, compared with $80,000 for the U.S. Although Vietnam is getting old before it gets 
rich, its demographic trends are shifting. The median age is currently only 26, yet the 
population is aging rapidly.

Currently, 12% of the population is over 60, but this is expected to rise to 21% by 2040, one of the fastest increases globally. This trend is partly due to rising life expectancy, which has improved from 60 years in 1970 to 76 years today, thanks to better living standards. Additionally, prosperity has led to a lower fertility rate, dropping from about seven children per woman to fewer than two over the same period. In the 1980s, the ruling Communist Party started to enforce a one-child policy. Although less strict than China's, it has hastened the decline. Demographic changes similar to what's happening in Vietnam are also occurring across many Asian countries, but Vietnam's situation is unique because it's still relatively poor. When countries like South Korea and Japan reached their peak share of the working-age population,

their GDP per person was at $32,500 and $31,700, respectively, adjusted for purchasing power. Even China was at $9,500. But when Vietnam reached this demographic peak in 2013, the average income was only $5,000. In comparison, Indonesia and the Philippines are expected to hit this demographic milestone soon, but at much higher income levels than Vietnam experienced. As countries usually progress economically, they tend to move from farming to more productive sectors like services. Compared to its neighbors, Vietnam is a bit behind in this shift. When its working-age population was at its peak in 2013, farming still made up 18% of its economy. In comparison, when China was at a similar point, agriculture only represented 10% of its GDP. Furthermore, farming productivity often declines with age, unlike professions such as management.

This heavy reliance on agriculture could be 
why three-quarters of Vietnamese workers are in jobs where productivity decreases as they 
age, compared to only about half in Malaysia. Boosting productivity will help to get rich 
quickly, but it won't be easy. The government still strongly supports statism, and issues like 
corruption, censorship, environmental problems, and human rights violations remain significant 
concerns. Vietnam ranks poorly in international assessments of civil liberties, press freedom, and 
religious and ethnic minority rights. Vietnam only began to thrive after its Communist leaders 
acknowledged that capitalism, free markets, and free trade were the best paths to wealth.  
Like South Korea, Taiwan, and China, Vietnam has proven that it's possible to lift a nation out 
of poverty under an authoritarian regime. However, it's worth noting that most of the world's 
richest countries are liberal democracies.

Back in the late 1990s, Malaysia 
and Thailand were on a path similar to Vietnam's today. However, they fell 
into what's known as the middle-income trap—a situation where countries struggle to move 
from being a low-cost economy to a high-value one, making it tough to compete with both low- and 
high-income nations. As Vietnam's economy expands, wages will go up too, meaning it can't rely on 
its low-cost approach forever. Dependence on export-led growth would leave it vulnerable 
to the volatile global trading environment. In the long run, Vietnam will need to use its 
current growth to invest in more productive, knowledge-based sectors to reach its 2045 
goal. Key services like finance, logistics, and legal services create skilled jobs 
and add value to existing industries. The excitement around Vietnam's 
business potential is warranted, but there's still a lot of work needed to turn 
today's promising trend into lasting prosperity.

Is Vietnam's Economy Truly Set to Become Rich? | Economy of Vietnam | Econ

Econ

베트남은 전쟁으로 폐허가 된 나라에서 지난 10년간 6.

1%의 성장률을 기록하며 아시아에서 가장 빠르게 성장하는 경제 국가 중 하나로 극적인 변화를 겪었습니다.

베트남은 중국과 인도에 비해 경제 성장률에는 미치지 못하지만 빈곤을 줄이고 생활 수준을 향상시키는 데 성공했습니다.

베트남을 빈곤에서 벗어나게 한 공로는 대부분 시장의 변화를 수용하여 베트남의 사회, 경제적 발전을 이끈 베트남 국민들의 노력에 기인합니다.

베트남의 빠른 경제 성장과 외국인 투자 변화

2%의 성장률을 기록하고 있으며, 처음에는 의류 분야에서, 나중에는 전자제품 분야에서 주요 외국 기업을 유치하고 있습니다.

2022년까지 전자제품은 베트남 수출의 40%를 차지할 것으로 예상되며, 많은 대기업이 중국에서 베트남으로 생산기지를 옮기고 있습니다.

이러한 전환은 1990년대 중국이 자본주의로 전환한 것과 유사하게 베트남 경제를 더욱 성장시키고 수백만 명의 베트남 국민의 삶을 개선할 수 있는 잠재력을 가지고 있습니다.

베트남의 외국인 직접 투자와 경제 과제

베트남은 꾸준히 높은 수준의 외국인 직접 투자를 유치해 왔으며, 2023년에는 싱가포르, 일본, 홍콩이 상위 투자국이 될 것으로 예상됩니다.

그러나 외국인직접투자에 대한 과도한 의존도는 베트남을 외부 경제 충격에 취약하게 만들고 있습니다.

주로 외국계 기업이 주도하는 수출이 크게 증가하면서 국내 기업의 실적과 불균형이 발생하여 베트남의 전반적인 성장에 어려움을 겪고 있습니다.

또한 베트남은 국영 기업의 성과와 스타트업 생태계의 발전에도 장애물이 있는데, 이는 목표 프로그램과 투자 확대를 통해 해결할 수 있습니다.

베트남의 경제적 도전과 외교적 노력

인건비 상승과 노동력 감소로 베트남의 노동 생산성은 전 세계 136위에 머물러 있습니다.

제조업의 경제 기여도는 증가하고 있지만, 파편화된 공급망과 수입품에 대한 의존도로 인해 부가가치는 정체된 상태입니다.

이러한 어려움에도 불구하고 베트남은 미국, 중국, 한국과의 관계를 전략적으로 강화하여 상당한 정치적, 경제적 이점을 노리고 있습니다.

베트남은 2045년까지 고소득 국가가 되는 것을 목표로 하고 있지만 인구 고령화와 일자리, 소득, 수출을 늘려야 하는 과제에 직면해 있습니다.

베트남의 60세 이상 인구는 기대수명 증가와 출산율 감소로 인해 2040년까지 12%에서 21%로 증가할 것으로 예상됩니다.

중국보다는 덜 엄격하지만 베트남의 한 자녀 정책도 이러한 인구 구조 변화에 기여하고 있습니다.

베트남의 독특한 상황은 다른 아시아 국가들과 달리 노동 가능 연령 인구가 정점에 도달했을 때 소득 수준이 상대적으로 낮다는 점입니다.

이러한 인구통계학적 변화는 베트남이 주변 국가에 비해 농업에서 생산성이 높은 분야로의 전환이 더디게 진행되어 농업 생산성에 잠재적인 문제를 야기하는 데 영향을 미쳤습니다.

베트남은 말레이시아에 비해 농업에 대한 의존도가 높아 근로자의 고령화로 생산성이 저하되고 있습니다.

또한 부패, 검열, 인권 침해와 같은 문제에 직면해 있어 시민의 자유와 언론의 자유 순위가 낮습니다.

베트남은 권위주의 정권 아래 있지만 다른 성공한 아시아 국가들과 마찬가지로 부를 위한 자본주의와 자유무역의 중요성을 인식하고 있습니다.

그러나 지속적인 번영을 위해서는 중간 소득 함정을 피하고 보다 생산적이고 지식 기반적인 부문으로 전환해야 합니다.