에너지 독립: 글로벌 전력의 역학 관계 변화

### 에너지의 미래: 글로벌 역학 관계와 미국의 독립성
* 🌍 2017년 5월 빌 게이츠는 에너지, 인공지능, 생명공학이 세상을 크게 변화시킬 것이라고 예측하며 **미래에 에너지의 중요성**을 강조했습니다.
* 🇺🇸 그는 미국이 초강대국 지위에 오를 수 있었던 것은 **석유에 대한 지배력**이 있었기 때문이며, **존 록펠러와 같은 주요 인물들**이 석유 산업을 통해 경제를 형성했다고 강조했습니다.
* 🛢 미국은 1970년대까지 중동 석유 생산량의 **90%를 독점**하며 세계 석유 시장을 지배했지만, 석유수출국기구(OPEC)가 결성되면서 미국 경제에 심각한 영향을 미치는 **오일 쇼크**가 발생했습니다.
* 📉 1970년대 석유 위기로 인해 미국은 에너지 안보를 우선시하게 되었고, **석유 수송로를 보호하기 위해 중동에 군대를 주둔**시키게 되었습니다.
* 🔋 그러나 2017년까지 미국은 셰일 에너지의 발견을 통해 에너지 자립을 달성하여 **석유와 천연가스의 순수입국에서 순수출국**으로 전환했습니다.
* 🤝 트럼프 행정부는 이러한 독립성을 활용하여 사우디 요원들에 의한 언론인 자말 카쇼기 암살 사건에도 불구하고 **미국 경제를 지원하기 위해 저유가를 유지**하면서 **베네수엘라에 제재**를 가했습니다.
* ⚡ 바이든이 대통령이 되면서 에너지 우선 순위가 **재생 가능 에너지**로 바뀌었지만, 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁이 계속되면서 유가가 치솟아 미국의 에너지 환경이 복잡해졌습니다.
* 💡 미국이 세계 경찰로서의 역할에서 물러나면서 **에너지 자립의 의미**를 이해하는 것은 미래의 투자와 글로벌 관계에 매우 중요합니다.

빌 게이츠는 에너지가 미래를 좌우할 것이라고 예측하며 글로벌 경쟁과 협력에서 에너지의 중요한 역할을 강조합니다.

May 2017, 'Bill Gates' is about to graduate from Harvard, and he delivers this message. In the future, 'energy', 'artificial intelligence', 'biotechnology', these three fields, will change the world. And within 15 years, The world will experience an 'energy miracle', He predicted. It's been almost 7 and a half years since then. It's clear that 'energy' will change the future, In fact, it's so clear. That means, He who knows 'energy' knows 'the future', He who catches the 'flow of change' first, He can sweep up money. So today, I would like to talk about the competition and cooperation between countries around the world, surrounding energy. Among them, I will tell you about 'the United States' and 'the Middle East'. Shall we begin? I can say with certainty that if there had been no 'oil', We would not have seen the 'America' we have today.

The 'wealth of the world' that dominates. Not to mention a superpower. We would have been nothing more than a quiet agricultural country. To that extent, the United States grew rapidly based on 'oil'. Also, in the United States, as 'industrialization' progressed, 'Kings' who changed the level of wealth began to emerge. Steel King, 'Andrew Carnegie', Financial King, 'JP Morgan', Railroad King, 'Jay Gould', Automobile King, 'Henry Ford', and others appear, laying the foundation of the American economy firmly. But among those kings, there was a 'king'. That's the oil tycoon 'John Rockefeller'. [Oil] Thanks to 'Cars', 'Railroads', and 'Ships' were all able to operate. Because of this, the 'steel industry' was born. Infrastructure was laid out throughout the United States. In the process, the 'finance industry' flourished. But oil, it didn't just bring 'economic wealth' to the US.

When the world becomes impossible to grow without oil, the United States has already dominated the global oil market. Oil was coming out of the Middle East, but 90% of Middle Eastern production was monopolized by the United States. The so-called 'Seven Sisters', American oil companies, secured exclusive development rights. Since oil came into the world, the United States has the ‘global oil market’, I never let go of it. That's how the United States, based on 'oil', got the world in its grasp. Then in the 1970s, the United States no longer uses ‘Middle Eastern’ oil, you won't be able to monopolize it. 'Saudi Arabia' formed a cartel with Arab countries in the Middle East. This was because oil resources were nationalized. The Middle East coalition denies the 'Seven Sisters' the right to set prices, causing an oil shock. In other words, the Middle Eastern oil-producing countries gained global dominance.

In the past, the United States imported 12 million barrels of oil a day and was a country that ran the country. And so, like blood flowing through the body, considered oil very important. This America in the 1970s was hit hard by two 'oil shocks'. In 1973, during the first oil shock, oil prices have fallen for the first time in two and a half months. It jumps 4 times. The US, due to rising oil prices, to curb the skyrocketing prices, raises the base interest rate to 12%~13%. And in 1979, the second oil shock occurred. The US Federal Reserve raised the benchmark interest rate to 20%. The US economy is literally shattered. 40% of small and medium-sized businesses are going under, and the unemployment rate is over 10%. After suffering for five years, we were barely able to control inflation. The United States felt the unprecedented 'energy security' crisis.

to the bone. Since then, the share of US oil imports continues to increase year after year. The United States, which placed great importance on 'stable securing of oil', is betting its life on [two issues]. One is the 'Middle East issue' of exporting oil. The other is protecting oil transport routes, 'securing the safety of sea routes'. So the US stations US troops in the 'Gulf Sea' of the Middle East, 'Middle East'. And transported by sea, to protect oil, in the 'Strait of Hormuz', more than one 'nuclear aircraft carrier', always deployed. How much the US values ​​oil as its life, can you feel it? So even if the producing country is a little angry, I just ignored it. There were days like this. September 20, 2006, the day of the UN General Assembly, President Chavez of 'Venezuela', the day after President George W. Bush of 'America',

gives a speech. Openly anti-American, mocks Bush. The devil in America, the devil was here yesterday. The smell of sulfur still lingers on this podium where I stand. And when he spoke, it would have been nice to have had a psychiatrist. He made jokes like this. If you were President 'George Bush', can you skip over this? If I were 'George Bush', I would have called Chavez 'George', I would have 'smashed' him. But the US had a shortage of oil because they were the largest importers of Venezuelan oil. Let's skip over it. But then things gradually changed. The US no longer had a reason to 'bear it'. In 2017, the US, starting with the Trump administration, strengthened sanctions on Venezuela, offered oil imports, completely cut off Venezuela's source of income. How was this possible? May 2016, Trump says something scary at the North Carolina Energy Conference: Imagine a world where America's enemies can no longer use energy as a weapon.

Isn't that great? By the time I'm done being president, America will have achieved complete energy independence! he said. Five years later, in 2021, Trump's words became reality. In 2013, the United States, within its territory, discovered a huge amount of 'shale energy'. The oil that mankind has consumed in the past 100 years is '1 trillion barrels'. Only in the US territory, '3.7 trillion' barrels of shale energy reserves have been confirmed. So in 2017, the United States became a net exporter of natural gas. Finally, in 2020, the US 'Energy Information Administration' announced one thing. The US' crude oil and natural gas exports exceeded its imports! What Trump said in 2016, 'energy independence', has been realized. In this way, the United States, from the 'Middle East' and 'enemies', achieves 'energy independence', from an 'importing country' to an 'exporting country'.

Transforms. This 'shale revolution', It was a truly revolutionary event that also brought down world oil prices, It was no longer, The United States, Whether 'Venezuela' rips off its belly, Whether 'the Middle East' squats, It was not greatly affected. Moreover, by changing the source of oil imports to Canada, We have drastically reduced the 'oil import dependency' of OPEC member countries. From the US's perspective, We no longer need to play the role of world policeman, But this is.., Our country cannot help but be affected. If Korea has a problem due to the 'Middle East conflict', such as the 'Strait of Hormuz' being blocked, there will be disruptions in the import of crude oil and gas. 67% of our country's imported crude oil, 37% of our natural gas passes through, Protecting the 'Strait of Hormuz' is, not someone else's business. Even Peter Zeihan, an American strategist,

says this. There is no reason for the US to protect Korea's DMZ in the future. Our country, which is not self-sufficient. What should we do? Now, let's look at the 'Middle East' situation. The world consumes '95 million barrels' of crude oil per day, about '100 million barrels' of crude oil. Since 'crude oil consumption' is increasing by 1% every year, about '1 million barrels' of crude oil must be supplied additionally. 'Consumption'.. It has steadily increased by 1% every year. It is possible to predict. What should we do about 'supply'? Oil production, OPEC about 40%, US 20%, Russia 14%, China and India produced in that order. China and India are busy being self-sufficient. Oil The quantity was not available on the market. For reference, the United States had banned oil exports by law until 2015. As a result, until 2015,

'OPEC Plus' was leading the oil supply. And the 'OPEC leader' was Saudi Arabia, which produced the most. When Saudi Arabia reduced supply, oil prices rose. When they increased supply, oil prices fell. That is, at the price Saudi Arabia thought was appropriate, it was a world where oil prices were maintained. In the meantime, in January 2015, Saudi King Abdullah passed away at the age of 90, and his half-brother Abdullah took over the throne. He is currently the father of Saudi Arabia's real power, 'Mohammed bin Salman'. How could his half-brother inherit the throne? The then Crown Prince, Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz, around October 2011, died due to deteriorating health. Even the new crown prince who succeeded him, Prince Nayef bin Abdulaziz, died one after another due to deteriorating health. That's how the Saudi royal family changed drastically. The ascension to the throne seemed impossible.

Prince Salman bin Abdulaziz, as the new crown prince. His son, Mohammed bin Salman, also skyrocketed. After becoming the king, 'Salman bin Abdulaziz' conferred power to his son, 'Mohammed bin Salman'. But since the 'royal succession structure' is not yet clear, 'Bin Salman' was number 3. So 'Bin Salman', after becoming the 'Minister of National Defense', the core of power, staged a coup. He arrested the princes who were in charge of the 'Ministry of National Defense' and the 'Ministry of the Interior' on charges of corruption. He was born in 1985. He took control of all three military organizations. He became the de facto leader. At the same time, there was a prominent Saudi journalist named 'Jamal Khashoggi'. There was a prominent Saudi journalist. He was in 2011 during the 'Arab Spring' and incurred the wrath of the Saudi royal family.

and fled to the United States. 'Kashkji', Since September 2017, He has been contributing to the 'Washington Post'. Current Saudi power holder, Criticizing the policies of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, seizure of power through a coup, and corruption within the royal family, began to expose. A year later, in October 2018, 'Kashgazi' disappears from the world. With his 'Turkish fiancee', To prepare 'documents required for marriage registration', He visited the 'Saudi Embassy' in Turkey. His schedule was reported to 'Bin Salman', 'Khashoggi' that day, was assassinated at the embassy. Suspicions that he was assassinated on the orders of the Saudi royal family, International criticism grew, But Saudi Arabia has come out and denied it all. But anyone can see that, It was 'Bin Salman' who did it. How did he know? When 'Kashgazi' entered the embassy,

He was wearing an Apple Watch. And he left his fiancée outside the embassy, with his synced iPhone. The entire process of torture and murder was recorded on the iPhone. This was broadcast on Al Jazeera and broadcast. It was 'critical evidence' that could not be denied. But 'Khashoggi', graduated from Indiana State University in the United States, since the 1980s, was a true American who had been active in the media. Moreover, who was also a contributor to the Washington Post. In the assassination of Khashoggi, would the United States have remained silent? Yes. Trump tolerates it. Rather, he says this. “Oil prices are going down, enjoy $54, thank you Saudi Arabia,” he said. On the circumstances that Bin Salman murdered Khashoggi, let’s give him an indulgence. So Saudi Arabia, in return for Trump, increased oil production by a record amount and helped lower oil prices.

But why did Trump do that? At that time, Trump was shouting 'America First'. It was because saving the US 'manufacturing economy' was his core strategy. Trump, in order to bring companies back to the country, lowered the corporate tax rate from 35% to 25% all at once. He reduced corporate taxes by a huge amount. American companies became more competitive and had the capacity to invest. But if taxes are reduced, that means the government's fiscal deficit is increasing. If we have a fiscal deficit and we want to spend money, what should we do? Just print more dollars. But if we print a lot of dollars, the dollar becomes common, the value of the dollar will fall, right? This means the 'price of imported goods' becomes more expensive. That is, 'inflation' comes. In order for Trump to solve inflation, he needed to lower oil prices. That's why he gave Khashoggi's death a free pass.

He maintained the low oil price trend. That's one of the reasons why inflation didn't come in the US at that time. That's one of the reasons why. Anyway, while Trump was wasting time like this, 'Shale gas' is being mined in earnest. The US has even become an 'energy exporter'. But Saudi Arabia makes all its money from selling oil. It costs astronomical amounts, like building 'NEOM City', so they had a lot of money to spend on, so they wanted to keep the oil price high somehow. Meanwhile, Trump fails to be re-elected, Biden becomes president. Biden completely changed the 'energy priorities'. Compared to oil and natural gas, wind power, solar power, etc., by expanding renewable energy, the policy direction has changed. But the problem is, compared to 'oil' and 'natural gas', the manufacturing cost of 'renewable energy' is expensive. So, 'Biden', while slowly raising the prices of 'oil' and 'natural gas',

He was relatively increasing the competitiveness of 'renewable energy'. In the meantime, another issue is acting as a variable. The Russia-Ukraine war broke out. Oil prices skyrocketed. This will soon stimulate inflation. At that time, Biden expanded 'renewable energy'. 'Shale energy' was regulated. So, increasing shale gas production to stabilize oil prices was difficult. 'Biden' is doing as the US has been doing, demanding Saudi Arabia increase oil production. But 'Bin Salman' ignores 'Biden's' call. 'Bin Salman' was hurt by 'Biden's' pride. Trump treated him as Saudi Arabia's de facto number one, but Biden treated him as the Secretary of Defense. Because he treated him as the Secretary of Defense, the 'Bin Salman' with hurt pride was crooked toward the US. Instead of increasing oil production, they are massively reducing it. And they are trying to trade oil in yuan, not dollars.

and they are also in contact with China. But Saudi Arabia, they can't get any stronger because of Iran. If the US withdraws from the Middle East, Saudi Arabia will have to deal with Iran directly because they can't subdue Iran. They are anxious. That's Saudi Arabia's reality. The United States, which has achieved 'energy independence' in this way, has begun to feel less and less the need to be the world's policeman, and now, it is just satisfying the voters who will elect them has become more important. Therefore, we, whether we are going to 'invest in stocks' in the future, whether we are going to understand the 'international situation', we need to assume 'the United States that has achieved energy independence', we will need to assume that. I hope today's content was helpful. If you 'subscribe', 'like', and 'set notifications', you will continue to receive useful information. Thank you for watching.

미국이 자처하던 세계 경찰을 때려치려는 이유 (ft. 에너지 전쟁)

더 큰 꿈을 향해, 함께 성장하며 돕겠습니다.


Achiever(어치버)

석유가 미국과 중동에 미치는 영향

빌 게이츠는 2017년에 에너지가 세계 변화의 핵심 동력이 될 것이며, 미국의 급속한 성장과 지배력은 석유에 대한 통제와 관련이 있다고 예측했습니다.

미국의 산업화는 세계 석유 시장을 독점한 존 록펠러와 같은 강력한 인물의 등장으로 이어졌습니다.

그러나 1970년대에 중동의 산유국들이 카르텔을 형성하면서 미국의 지배력에 도전하고 오일 쇼크를 일으켜 세계 권력이 이동했습니다.

미국은 1970년대 두 차례의 오일 쇼크가 발생하기 전까지 하루 1,200만 배럴의 석유 수입에 크게 의존하여 경제 혼란과 실업률 상승을 초래했습니다.

이러한 위기에 대응하기 위해 미국은 금리를 인상하고 특히 중동을 중심으로 석유 수입과 수송로 확보에 주력했습니다.

그러나 베네수엘라 석유에 대한 미국의 접근 방식은 더욱 공격적으로 변했고, 결국 2017년에는 제재와 석유 수입 전면 중단으로 이어졌습니다.

셰일 에너지가 미국 에너지 독립에 미치는 영향

미국은 셰일 에너지 매장량의 발견에 힘입어 2021년까지 에너지 자립을 달성했습니다.

미국은 2020년까지 천연가스 및 원유 순수입국에서 수출국으로 전환을 완료했습니다.

셰일 혁명은 세계 유가를 낮췄을 뿐만 아니라 미국의 석유 수입에 대한 OPEC과 중동 의존도를 낮췄습니다.

OPEC이 주도하는 사우디아라비아는 공급 결정을 통해 유가에 큰 영향을 미쳤습니다.

사우디아라비아의 왕실 후계 구도는 주요 왕자들이 사망하면서 급격하게 변화하여 모하메드 빈 살만이 권력을 장악하게 되었습니다.

빈 살만은 쿠데타를 일으켜 권력을 공고히 하는 한편, 자신을 비판한 언론인 자말 카쇼기가 암살당하면서 국제적인 분노와 왕실의 개입 의혹이 불거졌습니다.

카쇼기 피살이 미국-사우디 관계에 미친 영향

카쇼기의 살해 장면은 그의 동기화된 아이폰에 녹화되어 중요한 증거가 되었지만, 트럼프 정부는 침묵을 지켰고 심지어 사우디의 석유 생산량 증가로 이익을 얻었습니다.

트럼프의 감세와 미국 경제 부양을 위한 달러 인쇄는 저유가에 기여했고, 이는 인플레이션을 억제하는 데 도움이 되었습니다.

바이든이 대통령이 되면서 에너지 우선순위가 재생 가능 에너지로 바뀌면서 석유와 천연가스 가격이 상승했습니다.

러시아-우크라이나 전쟁이 재생 에너지와 미국-사우디 관계에 미치는 영향

러시아-우크라이나 전쟁으로 유가가 급등하면서 인플레이션이 발생했고, 바이든은 셰일가스 생산을 규제하면서 재생 에너지를 확대할 것을 촉구했습니다.

사우디아라비아에 석유 생산을 늘려달라는 바이든의 요청을 빈 살만이 무시하면서 석유 생산량이 감소하고 석유를 위안화로 거래하는 방향으로 전환했습니다.

미국의 에너지 자립으로 인해 미국은 세계의 경찰이 될 필요성을 줄이고 국내 유권자를 만족시키는 데 초점을 맞추고 있습니다.