글로벌 금리 동향 및 미국 경제 지표

미국 경제는 소매 거래 감소로 인한 소비 둔화에 직면한 반면, 고용은 여전히 견조하여 인플레이션 전망에 영향을 미치고 있습니다.

### 소비 둔화와 노동 시장 호조로 인한 미국 인플레이션 전망
* 📉 인플레이션으로 인해 미국 소비가 둔화되고 있으며, 미국인들은 **지갑을 닫고 할인점과 온라인 쇼핑에 점점 더 많이 의존**하고 있습니다.
* 📈 소비 우려에도 불구하고 미국 노동 시장은 여전히 강세를 보이고 있으며 **실업률은 완전 고용 수준에 근접**하고 있습니다.
* 🧠 클라우디아 삼 박사의 '3의 법칙'은 **실업률이 최근 이동 평균보다 0.5%포인트 증가**하면 갑작스러운 경기 침체가 발생할 것으로 예측합니다.
* 🛒 주택 및 서비스 가격은 미국 인플레이션의 '라스트 마일' 종결자로, **약 3.3%의 높은 수준**을 유지하고 있습니다.
* 🇺🇸 미국 정부의 적자 지출과 연방준비제도의 통화 정책 균형이 **인플레이션의 "마지막 마일"을 연장**시키고 있습니다.
* 🏛 바이든과 트럼프의 미국 대선 토론은 **경제에 초점을 맞출 것**으로 예상되며, **중동 문제가 핵심 주제**가 될 가능성이 있습니다.
* 🌐 프랑스, 스페인, 이탈리아를 포함한 국제 물가 지표는 **'슈퍼 프라이데이'(28일)에 발표**될 예정입니다.
* 🌍 프랑스의 마크롱 대통령은 **어려운 조기 대선**을 앞두고 있고, 이란은 **에브라힘 라이시 대통령이 헬기 추락 사고로 사망**한 후 혼란에 빠져 있습니다.

Hello, this is Jung In-seol from Washington Now. It's been two weeks since I greeted you last time. I caught a cold that doesn't seem to go away, so my voice sounds a bit strange, and I might cough. I hope you can understand this part. Major countries around the world, with Europe at the center, are all lowering their benchmark interest rates. Earlier this month, the European Central Bank lowered its benchmark interest rate for the first time in five years. Nordic countries like Sweden and Denmark have also joined the rate-cutting trend. Switzerland already lowered its interest rates last week for the second time since March. Following Canada, the UK is also considering lowering interest rates. However, what about the US? The US stands out. They are loudly declaring that it is not yet time to join the rate-cutting trend. They argue that the economy is strong and inflation remains low, like the last mile, the last 0.5 miles, the last mile.

The reason we cannot get out of this section is that NVIDIA is monopolizing AI artificial intelligence through the Envidia nationwide. In contrast to the United States and Europe, there is a stark contrast. Even within the United States, there are differences in consumption and employment. Still, inflation is easing and the economy is slowing down in the U.S. This direction is dominated by the observation that it has been determined. What is the problem? It's about the difference in speed and degree. Inflation indicators for major countries, including the United States, are being announced this week. Let's take a look at this week's key issues and schedules focusing on the speed of the last mile. What are the two pillars supporting the strong U.S. economy? As you all know, it's consumption and employment. However, among them, consumption is slowing down first. Retail sales have fallen below expectations for two consecutive months. It was negative two months ago, virtually unchanged.

The level was high. Nevertheless, the total scale of U.S. consumption is not decreasing, and compared to a year ago, it has increased. However, looking into it, it's not exactly like that. Due to inflation, prices have risen, making it seem like overall consumption has increased. However, looking deeper into it, actual spending is decreasing. In other words, under the so-called inflation illusion, Americans are also tightening their wallets little by little. These signs are being detected everywhere, especially in groceries. According to research firm Nielsen IQ, in the past year, the total number of transactions in U.S. stores decreased by 3 billion compared to a year ago. Compared to the period before the pandemic in 2020, the number decreased by 20 billion. Due to inflation, the total purchase amount has increased, but the number of items purchased and the number of transactions have significantly decreased. In theory, in retail.

Companies are increasing various discounts. Target, a representative retail company in the United States, lowered the prices of about 5,000 items including milk in June to bring customers back to the stores. Walmart also returned the prices of 7,000 products, which increased by 50% compared to a year ago, to previous levels. According to the sales criteria, the top U.S. logo said that due to a significant drop in the sales growth rate of U.S. stores, they are considering more promotions than before. It's not just grocery stores, but restaurants are also struggling. They are significantly reducing dining out. Why are they reducing dining out? It's because of tips and the inability to withstand deflation. According to the U.S. Restaurant Association, the average number of customers entering restaurants has been decreasing for 13 consecutive months. Last month's sales also fell for the first time in 7 months.

It is said that when Americans travel abroad, they do not feel any financial burden at all due to inflation. However, it is because of the strong dollar and the fact that they don't have to tip. In the past, it was said that countries like Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland had much higher prices than the United States, but now Americans don't feel that it is particularly expensive to go there. One of the main reasons is the exchange rate, but it is also because of tipping. If you deduct 20% of the tip, it actually seems cheaper. People are looking for fast food to avoid tipping. However, those who feel the price burden are not completely refraining from consuming. They are going online and flocking to discount stores that offer significant discounts. Yet, American consumers are still finding prices quite burdensome.

It is clear that wallets are being closed little by little. Consumption is like this, but employment is not like that yet. It means that it is solid, not indicating a slump. Vinyl sales have returned to pre-pandemic levels, and although the unemployment rate has slightly increased, the labor market is still strong. Even though it is unknown how long consumption can play a strong supporting role, at least the labor market is not leaning towards a recession. Looking at the truth of the labor market, we can understand it more clearly through a law called the Three Times Rule, named after Dr. Claudia, an economist at the Federal Reserve. It's not the 1st or 2nd rule of universal gravitation, but the rule named after this person. So, because it's a bit confusing, it's called the Rule of Three Times.

The spelling of the person's name is sahm, so it's spelled as sahm. That's why it's called the Rule of Three, which is a bit awkward in tone. Still, what is the Rule of Three? This was proposed in 2019. The moving average of the unemployment rate for the recent three months, for example, the average of the unemployment rate is around 3.9, and the lowest in a year was 3.6. If the unemployment rate increases by 0.5 percentage points higher than that, a sudden recession comes. However, this time it's not a recession because it's around 3.9 to 3.5, so it's naturally not a recession. It should suddenly increase by 0.5%. Since 1970, all recession cases have fit into this Rule of Three. So, Paul Krugman, in his forties with a Ph.D., highly praises it, saying it's a very good rule.

I did it, but according to the current social law, there seems to be no sign of a recession. Even during the pandemic, there wasn't a recession like that. The unemployment rate spiked for a very short period, but now it's almost stable at less than 4%. It recently hit 4%, but it's maintaining full employment levels. So, the possibility of a recession is low, as seen in the company's regulations. Dr. Three also believes in the soft landing of the U.S. economy, meaning that inflation can be controlled without a recession. He disagrees with the idea that a recession is needed to lower inflation. He forecasted that they can overcome inflation without a recession. Dr. Three also predicted until the end of last year that in the first half of this year, the Fed will start lowering interest rates and will decrease them by 1% point over a year.

It was wrong in a good way. Of course, the Fed made many mistakes, and many people are making mistakes. This law is correct, but people's expectations are wrong. Consumption and employment are flying apart. What will happen to inflation in the future? Since this part is all wrong, many people's forecasts are wrong. Overall, the market is looking very slowly bearish. On the 28th, the US PC will be released, which will confirm this part once again. In the market, the May PC price is expected to increase by 0.01% compared to the previous month, rounding up at the second decimal place, so it is expected to stay virtually unchanged at the break-even level. Compared to the previous year, it is expected to increase by 2.6%. It was 2.7% for two consecutive months, but it is expected to slightly ease to 2.6, breaking that barrier. How about the underlying PC? It is expected to increase by 0.1% compared to the previous month and by 2.6% compared to the same period last year.

I'm doing well. In April, a month ago, it increased by 0.3% to 2.8%, which was more relaxed than expected. For three consecutive months, in March, April, and May, it remained at 2.8%. However, this time, in May, it eased to 2.6%. The 2.8% barrier is broken. So, the market is saying that the inflationary pressure is weakening economically. However, there is still a long way to go. Even if the forecast is correct, the target of 2% is still not being met. Who is the last mile terminator? It is housing and service prices. They are still at a high level. So, inflation is not yet under control. Moreover, looking at the CPI, the situation in the U.S. seems even more serious. What is the current U.S. CPI? It is 3.3%, in the early to mid-3% range. Other countries, including the U.S. and Korea, are in the early to mid-2% range. The U.S. is much higher like this.

What is the main reason for the high CPI in the United States? It's because of the specificity of the CPI. In other words, the housing costs of homeowners are significantly reflected. The overall CPI calculation method across the world is the same, which is comparing the past and current prices of the same items. However, there are significant differences in the composition and weights. There is no country that reflects housing costs as high as the United States. What percentage does housing costs account for in the US CPI? It's over 36%. Among them, the proportion of housing costs for homeowners is 7.8% of that 36%, which corresponds to 2.6% of the total. European countries with lower proportions of housing costs naturally have lower CPI results. That's why the US has higher CPI results. In the case of South Korea, housing costs account for about 10% of the CPI, and the housing costs of homeowners are not included at all. Only rental costs are partially reflected.

Currently, in our country, the homeownership rate is close to about 60%. However, their housing costs, loan interest, and things like that are not included in the CPI. In the United States, though, it is reflected in the form of a survey, like how much would you rent for. But because that part is included, the U.S. CPI comes out slightly higher than other countries, around the early 3%. Considering this, it is necessary to compare the CPI of the United States with other countries like France, Spain, and Italy. On Friday, the 28th of this month, the inflation meetings of these countries will be disclosed. Last week was Wednesday, which was a super Wednesday, but this week will be a super Friday. Already, on the 25th, after lowering the interest rates once, Canada will also announce the CPI of last month. Most countries are expecting inflation to slightly ease compared to before. Inflation is easing and is at a high level, but.

The person in the White House is in a hurry. The U.S. presidential debate is starting earlier than scheduled. Inflation is not easing quickly, but the presidential debate starts early. Why is that? This election is different from previous ones. The presidential candidates have already been decided. Normally, each party's national convention is in July or August, and the election starts after it ends in September. However, this time, even though there is a national convention, it's more of a formality. Both the Democratic Party with Biden and the Republican Party with Trump have been decided. That's why the presidential debate is happening first. It will start at 9 p.m. local time on the 27th in Atlanta, USA, and at 10 a.m. on the 28th in Korea, at the CNN studio. Four years ago, when these two debated, it was chaotic. They kept talking over each other without turning off their microphones. To prevent that this time, when one person is speaking, the other person's microphone will be muted.

The candidate decided to turn off their microphone and, without the help of aides, only holding a pen and a notepad, take a 90-minute break and then continue the debate. Most markets predict that Trump will win or not have a significant advantage. If President Biden overturns this expectation and, like the unexpected speech last time, takes medicine or faces controversy in any form, performs well, attacks aggressively, shows a healthy appearance, and speaks passionately without a break for 90 minutes, President Biden may actually see an increase in approval ratings after the TV debate. In terms of topics, the economy, including inflation, is likely to be the most discussed, and the Middle East issue could be President Biden's Achilles' heel. How to defend against it is of interest. Other topics such as illegal immigration, the Ukraine war, the aging controversy, and Trump's judicial risks are also important.

It will be a hot topic. Originally, Biden was the man in crisis, but there was a man in even more crisis. Who is it? It's President Macron of France. In the European Parliament elections, the ruling party was dominant. President Macron surprisingly declared an early budget and announced a snap election. The first round of voting will be held on Sunday, the 30th local time. If there is no majority candidate, the final vote will be held on the 7th of next month. This is for the parliament, not the presidential election. Even if the ruling party led by President Macron loses, he will not step down from the presidency. They will become a minority party in the parliament. Also, Iran is in turmoil right now after President Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash. A by-election will be held on the 28th with five out of six candidates being conservative. Like I mentioned before,

Employment does not quite match. There is a slight temperature difference. Among them, Dr. 3Sam's forecast was also wrong. Just like his wrong forecast, it's really difficult to predict inflation. Between consumption and employment, which one will give us a better economic forecast for the US? This indicator can be seen this week through the inflation indicators of other countries, so we should pay close attention. That's all for the content. Last week, many of you left comments on the video I made. It was two weeks ago. Thank you. Charlie Lim mentioned that the US government is injecting a lot of money. As I have been saying, due to the balance between the Fed's tightening and the Biden administration's deficit spending, the inflation last mile section keeps getting longer.

Certainly, it will be a problem, and in the long run, compared to the post-World War II period, the government debt has increased more relative to GDP in the United States. This is a significant challenge that needs to be overcome. Depending on how this is overcome, it seems that it could determine the sustainability of the U.S. economy and the global economy. Mr. Sun Na, you also expressed your concerns. Thank you so much for your support. Despite the malicious comments, I will continue to persevere. I don't see many malicious comments, but maybe I just can't see them. I am grateful for everyone's support, and I continue to live on that. Last week, I mentioned that I am expanding investment in job creation. Therefore, it is a new job, and the unemployment rate is measured through a kind of person-centered survey, so these two indicators take different forms.

I said that I could appear, but the number of irregular part-time jobs is increasing. Of course, it's because we have to make a living due to inflation, so the need for sleep is increasing. That becomes new jobs, not new employment or new employees increasing. Many of you have given me a lot of good words. Especially, Alice Kim, you told me what I wanted to hear. You pinpointed the important points that I wanted to hear. What I pursue always seems insufficient, so I try to compress time a bit more and make it more fun, but it doesn't go as planned. Thank you to everyone for your kind words. Especially last week, maybe because there were negative comments, it seems like many of you have given even better words. Carolo, three times.

You mentioned repeatedly that you listened carefully, but it made me reconsider if it is really worth it. You mentioned whether the increase in new jobs has more damage than the rise in hourly wages. The increase in new jobs seems quite significant in the job market because jobs need to continue to increase. Also, the rate of increase in hourly wages has a much greater significance when it comes to inflation. Currently, looking at the whole country, the increase in hourly wages may have a greater impact as you mentioned. Haebing, Shushu, Shuper Wednesday, last week, there were a lot of announcements on Wednesday, but this time it's Shuper Friday. We need to watch whether it will turn into a golden Friday or a black Friday. Abba, you said I remind you of a Smurf when you look at me, I take it as a compliment.

I appreciate it, you know. I might come across that way, but I don't think so. It's quite challenging for me because I can't control my tongue well. Oh, and Kim Dong-hyun, Kim Dong-hyun, mentioned that CPI can be manipulated without processing PC. Well, you can think that way because PC has a more extensive data highway. However, I don't see it that way. I just see differences in data ranges and methods. Abraham, oh, mentioned about the statistics of illegal immigrants' employment and legal economic participants, saying that the statistics show such a big difference. I think many are considering that the statistics related to illegal immigrants have not been fully reflected yet. So, if this comes into the U.S. economy in a significant way or to what extent it enters the center of the U.S. economy.

Many parts from that side will likely be reflected in the statistics. So far, only a very small part has been reflected, and I don't have a sense of how much that part is. Last week, like zd, I explained the difference in CPI and PC, and you mentioned that part. Hanari also mentioned that the issue is the U.S. government's money flooding. Ik7 said it's strange that insurance rates were not discussed. In the U.S., since there are no signs of an economic downturn, interest rates are not lowered. European countries are still not fully achieving their inflation easing goals, but they are lowering interest rates to prevent an economic downturn. There have been a lot of discussions like this. For example, Switzerland has achieved its inflation target, so they have lowered interest rates for two consecutive months. However, the U.S. does not need to do that, so they have not lowered interest rates for insurance purposes yet.

It seems like you are not doing it. I'm not sure if you are saying that, but that's what I think. This week, we'll stop here. I will come back again next week. Thank you.

💥美증시 주간전망💥 미국 소비와 고용의 온도 차 / 정인설의 워싱턴나우

한경 특파원들이 전하는 잠들지 않는 투자 뉴스

한경 글로벌마켓

유럽을 비롯한 주요 국가들이 기준금리를 인하하고 있지만, 미국은 경기 호조와 낮은 인플레이션을 이유로 이러한 추세에 저항하고 있습니다.

미국 경제는 인플레이션으로 인한 전반적인 지출 증가에도 불구하고 소비와 소매판매가 감소하는 등 둔화 조짐을 보이고 있습니다.

소매업체들은 더 많은 할인 혜택을 제공함으로써 거래 감소에 대응하고 있으며, 레스토랑은 지속적인 고객 및 매출 감소로 어려움을 겪고 있습니다.

달러 강세와 팁이 미국 여행객과 노동 시장에 미치는 영향

미국 여행객들은 달러 강세와 팁 문화 차이로 인해 과거에 물가가 높았던 국가를 방문할 때 더 이상 금전적인 부담을 느끼지 않습니다.

가격 부담에도 불구하고 소비자들은 온라인과 매장에서 할인을 찾아다니며 점차 지출을 줄이고 있습니다.

노동 시장은 '3번의 법칙'에서 알 수 있듯이 경기 침체 없이 인플레이션을 극복할 것으로 전망되는 등 고용 상황이 강하고 안정적이며, 경기 침체 징후는 보이지 않고 있습니다.

미국 인플레이션 현황과 CPI에 미치는 영향

6% 내외로 변동이 미미할 것으로 예상되며, 이는 인플레이션 압력이 다소 완화되었음을 나타냅니다.

주택 및 서비스 가격이 지속적인 높은 인플레이션의 주요 원인으로 지목되고 있으며, 미국 CPI는 주택 비용이 크게 반영되어 다른 국가에 비해 현저히 높은 편입니다.

주택 비용이 36% 이상을 차지하는 미국 CPI는 주택 비용이 CPI의 약 10%에 불과한 한국과 같은 다른 국가에 비해 상당히 높은 수준입니다.

미국 대통령 선거 토론의 파격적인 타이밍과 글로벌 정치 업데이트

미국 대선 토론회는 후보자 조기 선출과 이전 토론회의 혼란스러운 상황으로 인해 예년보다 일찍 열리고 있습니다.

프랑스의 마크롱 대통령은 조기 대선을 발표해 정치적 혼란을 야기했고, 이란은 라이시 대통령의 사망으로 보궐선거를 준비하고 있습니다.

예측할 수 없는 인플레이션과 그것이 경제에 미치는 영향은 글로벌 이벤트와 함께 상당한 관심과 토론을 불러일으키고 있습니다.

미국 정부 부채에 대한 우려가 커지고 있습니다.

미국 정부의 GDP 대비 부채는 2차 세계대전 이후 크게 증가하여 경제에 큰 도전이 되고 있습니다.

미국과 세계 경제의 지속 가능성은 이 문제를 어떻게 해결하느냐에 달려 있습니다.

악의적인 댓글에 직면하고 있음에도 불구하고, 일자리 창출과 인플레이션이 새로운 고용 기회에 미치는 영향에 초점을 맞추면서 받은 지원에 감사를 표하고 있습니다.

CPI와 PC가 미국 경제에 미치는 영향

CPI와 PC 데이터 해석은 다양하며, 일부는 PC를 처리하지 않고도 조작이 가능하다고 생각합니다.

불법 이민자의 고용과 합법적 경제 참여자 간의 통계에 큰 차이가 있다는 것은 불법 이민이 미국 경제에 미치는 영향이 충분히 반영되지 않았음을 시사합니다.

미국은 정부의 통화 정책과 보험 금리에 대한 논의에도 불구하고 경기 침체 조짐이 없다는 이유로 유럽 국가들과 달리 금리를 낮추지 않고 있습니다.