Today, the U.S. stock market closed lower. Concerns about the U.S. economic outlook have increased ahead of the release of employment data, causing the market to decline. Investors are closely monitoring the U.S. employment data set to be released on Friday, which is expected to play a crucial role in determining the extent of interest rate cuts in September. Many investors still anticipate that the Federal Reserve will implement a rate cut of over 100 basis points this year, indicating the possibility of significant rate reductions. Given the emphasis on recent employment data, many analysts at major firms believe that the U.S. employment data to be released on Friday will be a key indicator in deciding whether to cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points this month. Steve Sosnick from Interactive Brokers stated that what stock bulls need is a Goldilocks scenario that is neither too hot nor too cold, especially ahead of the employment data release.

The indicators showed a mixed picture. The U.S. services sector expanded at a moderate pace, while companies' new hiring reached its lowest level since early 2021, and unemployment claims fell below expectations. Chris Laki from this trade noted that tomorrow's employment report would provide investors with a clearer judgment on the state of the labor market following today's mixed data. The S&P closed at 5,503. The Magnificent Seven index rose by 1.6%. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 3.72%. NVIDIA's stock price increased, and Bank of America analysts suggested that the recent drop in stock prices has created a stronger buying opportunity. Tesla's stock surged after announcing plans to launch FSD in China and Europe. This was stated by Torro's Breck after a disappointing employment report.

It is natural for investors to feel uneasy about the data to be released on Friday. Currently, there is a high likelihood that the Federal Reserve will implement a 25 basis point rate cut outside of September, but a disappointing jobs report could increase the possibility of a 50 basis point cut. Mark Malek of Siebert Financial mentioned that if the employment figures from Neval Pr deviate significantly from expectations, the market could experience substantial volatility in either direction. According to a Bloomberg survey of economists, this jobs report is expected to show an increase of about 165,000 jobs. This is higher than the 114,000 increase in July, but the average increase over the past three months is expected to slow to just over 150,000, which would be the lowest figure since early 2021. Evercore ISI indicated that the ADP private employment data released on Thursday and other labor market indicators suggest a likelihood of weak employment in August. LP Financial's Jeffrey Roach noted that the ADP...

As estimates slow down, tomorrow's employment report may be weaker than expected. The ADP report has had a low correlation with non-farm employment in recent years, but this year, that correlation is showing signs of improvement. Blue has raised its sales forecast for the third quarter. Horizon Frontier Communications has an acquisition at $95.9. Costco's same-store sales increased by 5%. Carson's second-quarter EPS forecast falls short of expectations. There was news of raising $160 million in investments from companies like Apply Digital and NVIDIA. 

Now, let's look at the schedule for Friday, September 6, 2024. The economic calendar shows that at 6 PM, Europe will release its second-quarter actual GDP growth rate. At 10:30 PM, the U.S. will announce its non-farm payrolls for August. At 9 PM, the U.S. unemployment rate for August will be released, along with the average hourly wage. At 2 AM, there will be a speech by Baker Hughes' total rig count, and at 10:45 PM, Federal Reserve President Williams will speak, followed by Director Waller at midnight.

【미국 증시 오늘의 요약】 혼조세 속 하락 마감, 핵심 고용 지표 발표 앞두고 관망세｜ADP 비농업, 2021년 이후 최저치｜연준 금리 향방 주목 ｜ -  2024/09/05

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【미국 증시 오늘의 요약】 혼조세 속 하락 마감, 핵심 고용 지표 발표 앞두고 관망세｜ADP 비농업, 2021년 이후 최저치｜연준 금리 향방 주목 ｜ - 2024/09/05

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