Hello, viewers and investors. It's great to see all of you financial warriors. Let's start the market recap for Friday, September 6th. Today's main takeaway will be the polarized analysis of the U.S. economy. Right now, the economic indicators in the U.S. are coming out extremely divergent. The manufacturing and service sectors are showing different trends, and overall, the intense heat we experienced is beginning to cool down. However, it's not a complete freeze. People often have a psychological tendency to think that a small drop means a total freeze, which is not the case. It's similar to the current weather; it feels like the heat is still lingering, but during the day, it can still be quite warm. The U.S. economy is moving at a slightly faster pace than this, and we are heading into mid-September.

I think it might not be the kind of weather we expected. Nevertheless, for those working in the cold sector, the market feels very tough. Today, the indicators are showing conflicting trends, leading to varied opinions. If we look at the bond market, most of the price adjustments have already been reflected. There isn't much left to adjust from here. The prices have already been pulled up. The bond market has almost fully adjusted, and the stock market has already adjusted as well. In the past, bad is good was definitely true. When bad news came out, it was expected that the U.S. would lower interest rates, which would raise stock prices. Bad is good was the mantra. However, since we've consumed all the resources of this bad is good narrative, we are now left with an empty pot, just simmering with water and a pinch of salt.

We need to add flavor, but isn't the current U.S. stock market like having no salt? So what will happen next? That's the problem. It's truly a perplexing situation. Now, let's take a look at the Korean stock market, starting with the KOSPI index. If you look at the KOSPI index, the price at the beginning of the year is a bit strange. It seems they are referring to a different KOSPI index. Wait a moment. Oh, is it because it's a foreign site? Anyway, let's take a look. The KOSPI 200 index, which is the benchmark for KOSPI 200 futures, shows the current price at the beginning of the year. As you can see, it has dropped back to the beginning of the year price. It rose a bit and then steadily increased, but now it has fallen back to the beginning of the year price. This reflects the current sentiment in the Korean market. If we look at the U.S. market, it has indeed fallen a lot.

I have a feeling, but let's turn to see how far the U.S. has dropped by looking at the U.S. representative index. You might be surprised, everyone. Now, let's check the annual U.S. indicators, the chart for the past year. Where are we now? We're very close to the historical peak. You don't believe it? Let's take a longer view. Still don't believe it's a historical peak? Shall we look even further back? Yes, we are at a historical peak. The longer we look, the more we see that we are currently at the historical highest point in the U.S. market. However, recently, the market has been shaking, and it seems to have dropped significantly. As I mentioned earlier, since we've used up all the materials, if something bad happens, it might not just be bad; it could turn into a disaster. There is some concern that since we've exhausted all the bad materials, if something negative comes out, it could indeed lead to a disaster.

So, now the non-farm employment report that will come out tomorrow is something I'm quite worried about. I have significant concerns because I think the reason for the decline is that many Koreans have invested heavily, and their interest in major U.S. stocks is also quite high, but the drop has been considerable. Let's take a look at the semiconductor index. As we saw earlier, it is not near its peak. The S&P 500 is also not near its peak, and it is currently dropping with a head and shoulders pattern. Since it's caught in this head and shoulder pattern, if it falls from here, it definitely doesn't look good. Given the current situation, I wonder how much of the interest rate cards we've used so far will affect things moving forward. So, what will happen next?

To obtain additional materials, a larger interest rate cut than we expect is necessary. However, the bond market has already priced this in. From the perspective of the stock market, if a cut is implemented, it would signal a decrease in interest rates. Stocks that have been vulnerable due to interest rates could significantly improve. Therefore, if the bond market anticipates a reduction of around 25 basis points or 50 basis points at some point this year, the market could rebound with that information.

Now, we need to examine the indicators that have been released. The employment indicators came out first. What happened in the market afterward? The bond market surged strongly, and the overall market couldn't help but follow that trend. Let's look at the employment data; the ADP private employment figures were released, and they came out at 100,000.

It has broken. Oh, it has dropped below 100,000. Yes, it has dropped below 100,000. What will happen now? I start to think, ah, there might be a possibility of raising interest rates twice at once, right? So, looking at the employment change rate, up there we see the Christmas, Christmas gray and challenge, which is the layoff report. 7,589, which is a significant increase compared to the last 25,000 people. Layoffs are also increasing gradually. Furthermore, according to ADP, non-farm employment was expected to be 140,000, but it dropped to 99,000. So, it’s really getting stuck. Wow, if it drops below 100,000, then the Fed will definitely move based on the employment report, so they might lower it by 50 basis points. This kind of data has come out that can be considered in the bond market. Now, the next thing is the new unemployment claims. Let's take a look at the new claims.

I mixed it with something else, but if you look at the number of new job applicants, it has decreased to 227,000 from the previous 232,000. The average for the previous year decreased from 241,000 to 220,000. Next, the number of continuous applicants has decreased from 1,860,000 to 1,838,000. The new data shows that employment is not decreasing; in fact, unemployment is not increasing. So, it’s mixed up. On the other hand, if you look at the unit labor costs above, the unit labor costs have significantly decreased, with a 0.4% increase compared to the previous period. Productivity has also risen significantly. What caused this increase? It went from zero to a 2.5% increase compared to the previous period. Is it because AI is being widely used, or is it that many people were laid off, so each remaining worker has more work? That could be the case. Anyway, labor...

Productivity has significantly increased. In this situation, the Purchasing Managers' Index was released. Last time, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index dropped below 50, leading to the thought that the U.S. economy is really heading towards the bottom. However, I was curious about the indicators related to the service sector, which accounts for 70% of the economy, and as expected, they are above 50. The service management index from the market came out at an impressive 55.7, and ISM did not drop compared to last month, remaining at 51.4 and 51.5. On the other hand, if you look at the employment index, it has definitely fallen to 51.1, a drop of 50.2%. Nevertheless, the service sector is doing well, all indicators are above 50, indicating an expansion phase. So, everyone is returning to a relatively good situation in this sector. Therefore, considering the upcoming elections in the U.S., we can think about manufacturing-related aspects.

What is the key point? It's about the expansion of facilities. Investment in equipment is necessary for the manufacturing industry to achieve growth rates. However, it seems that facility expansions will likely proceed after the elections. This could lead to a sharper decline in manufacturing. In reality, the situation in the manufacturing sector is not very good, and it seems all of this is interconnected. From what I've heard, the so-called manufacturing model in the U.S. doesn't seem to be very active, especially in the semiconductor field. It appears that while the rate of activation in manufacturing is decreasing, people are still going out to eat, travel, and enjoy leisure activities. So, as I mentioned today, when looking at the U.S. economy...

It seems that the market is not coming out as a single entity but is rather divided, leading to polarization. In this regard, there are other indicators that show trends in the service industry. If you look at other indicators, such as the downward trend in the price index and the new order index, I thought they had significantly decreased. This is because, in manufacturing, new orders have also dropped dramatically. However, if you look at the new orders, it has actually increased from 50.4 to 53.0. Additionally, the price index remains at zero. In this area, the business activity index has decreased from 54.5 to 53.3%. Lastly, regarding automobile sales, which is relevant to our country’s Hyundai Motors, the total passenger car sales in July dropped from 2.99 million to 2.87 million, a decrease of 120,000 units.

In July, total truck sales dropped to 1.28 million in August, a decrease of 1.22 million. Car sales are decreasing a bit. So, even if Hyundai Motors does very well, it might still see a slight decline. Since total car sales are going down, that should be taken into account. As a result, the bond market showed additional strength yesterday. However, the 10-year bond is at 3.75 to 3.72. In my opinion, the maximum should be around 3.5, shouldn't it? The highest it could rise should be around 3.5. Unless something unusual happens, like a sudden economic downturn leading to a drop to 1%, or the unemployment rate jumping above 4.5%, then it could fall to 3.5. But for now, we should consider 3.5 as the maximum for the bond market.

It doesn't seem that interesting. There may be potential for capital gains in long-term investments, but from now on, I feel that the range has significantly narrowed. Yesterday, interest rates plummeted, which caused a sharp rise in prices. When the first indicators came out today, interest rates were heavily reflected, but since the other indicators also showed positive results, they didn't spike significantly compared to yesterday. Now, the focus is on tomorrow. How will the interest rates be tomorrow? How will employment figures turn out tomorrow? Those will be the key points. As interest rates continue to fall, the value of the dollar is decreasing. The dollar has dropped by 10.28% to 10.06%, while the euro has risen a bit, and the yen initially strengthened but then...

The yen has slightly decreased. Now it is at 141. The last low was significant because whether it can break that low is quite important, and it is moving slowly but steadily. They have announced that they will raise interest rates, and the governor has also confirmed this. However, unlike last time, we are not seeing a significant surge in the yen's strength following such announcements. 

Let's see, the yen has fallen below 7.1, and it is showing a very slow strength. If we look at the recent strength of the yen or the yuan, it seems that it should be around the low 1300s, but it is not showing that kind of movement. So, where does this assessment come from? The N1 exchange rate is close to 930 won per 100 yen. Last time, what was the lowest? It was 855, and it has been hovering around the 800s, showing a similar pattern.

For a long time, it was around 800 won, but now it has returned to the 900 won range. The feeling is that 930 won is actually quite cheap, but it feels expensive. However, historically speaking, 930 won should be remembered as a low price. Regarding the euro, the euro-dollar exchange rate has recorded 1,481. Despite deciding to extend the production cuts for another three months, the price has hardly risen. It seems that the market is unable to move up. There is also the anticipation of tomorrow's employment report, and with today's ADP employment data, thoughts about the downturn in both the Chinese and U.S. economies come to mind, which makes it difficult for prices to rise. Gasoline prices continue to drop, and gold prices are hovering around high levels, searching for stability. The prices of other commodities are showing mixed trends.

Interestingly, despite the decline in the value of the dollar, Bitcoin has also dropped significantly. It has fallen from around $60,000 to now about $56,000. Now, let's take a look at the total assets of the Federal Reserve. The total assets of the Federal Reserve are recorded at $7.1225 trillion, which is a decrease of about $10 billion compared to last week. Just to clarify, it’s approximately $7.115 trillion, and it has decreased by just over $10 billion. They continue to reduce this amount. If the market experiences volatility, it seems likely that the Federal Reserve may slow down the pace at which they are reducing their total assets. However, as you saw earlier, the U.S. market is still on a strong upward trend. It seems they will continue to withdraw funds steadily, but as mentioned previously by the Federal Reserve, the funding...

The rate of reduction seems to be somewhat lower compared to the past. If they reduce significantly, how much can they cut? They can reduce it to about 90 billion dollars monthly. However, reducing it by 10 billion or 20 billion dollars weekly won't reach 90 billion dollars. But occasionally, when they cut around 25 billion or 30 billion dollars, that would be considered a significant reduction. There are also times when they take a break for a week, so that’s something to keep in mind.

Now, let’s take a look at the overall U.S. market through Greenfin Visuals. Among the corporate news currently coming out, the biggest news is from Broadcom. It seems that Broadcom is creating another negative atmosphere in the semiconductor industry. However, Broadcom's performance has been good, meeting expectations with third-quarter revenue of 13.07 billion dollars.

The dollar's next weekly EPS ranking is reported at $1.24, which did not meet expectations. The expectation was $1.20, but it exceeded that. However, the guidance for the next quarter has been set at $14 billion. This time, it was $13.07 billion, so $14 billion would indicate good performance, meaning an increase. The market consensus is $14.1 billion. Now, let's briefly look at Broadcom. If you could show us the connection window, we can see that it is down 6.82% in after-hours trading. This stock had previously risen sharply, almost like a sibling to its peers, but it is now experiencing a significant drop in after-hours trading. This guidance indicates that there is currently very high anticipation regarding the semiconductor sector.

It's a situation where a company that couldn't achieve 13.1 billion is expected to reach 14 billion dollars next quarter, and that's considered doing well. But that's all there is to it. This is the current atmosphere in the market. Overall, we've seen a rebound in tech stocks, and among them, Amazon had a significant increase, as did Tesla, which rose nearly 5%. At one point during the trading session, it rose even more. They announced that they will launch their autonomous driving system in Europe and China in the first quarter of next year. As a result, the stock price surged significantly. I see Tesla's future in this way: autonomous driving will continue to be the company's strongest growth driver, and in the long term, say in 5 to 10 years, it will truly become a powerful cash cow for the company. The money generated from software will be substantial.

I expect that, but the problem is, how many people will actually buy this autonomous driving system in China and Europe? From the perspective of Chinese people, I have that thought. For these systems to truly take root, they need to show a flow that is almost at the level of robot taxis. Even if robot taxis are implemented, let me ask you, how much would you pay to ride in a robot taxi? Aside from taking a robot taxi once or twice out of curiosity, compared to traditional taxis with drivers, how much would you be willing to pay to ride in a robot taxi? If a regular taxi costs 10,000 won, how much would you pay for a robot taxi? Would you ride it if it were more expensive? If it were 9,000 won, would you take it? If it were 8,000 won, would you take it? Or would you say, I don't care; I just want to get there quickly, whether there's a driver or not? What would that be like, considering the characteristics of robot taxis?

The speed will not be very proactive. For example, in my case, I would say to the driver, I'm sorry, but could you please go a bit faster to there? In response, most taxi drivers in Korea would quickly speed up, probably around 70 to 90 percent of the time. They really do drive fast, to the point where I am often surprised sitting in the back. Sometimes I wonder if I shouldn't have said anything, as there are instances where people feel uncomfortable with the speed. They tend to drive fast, but will robot taxis do the same? No, they won't. So, how much profit will there be? Not in the long term, but at the beginning. In my view, it will just be a small profit. Autonomous driving, yes, that will also be a small profit. Therefore, I think the strongest stock momentum will come when there is a sense of expectation around this, and when we actually lift the lid on it, it will lead to tangible profits.

I believe the conversion won't be as significant as expected. So, Tesla will continue with this kind of structure. There is a trend where, during earnings announcements, there is a bit of fear regarding the results, leading to some anxiety. However, once the earnings announcement is over, it's like overcoming a hurdle. Then, there is anticipation for what's next. We are also waiting for the humanoid robot; there are many things to look forward to. I think these factors will keep driving the momentum. Musk is truly a stock genius; he really is a stock genius. Just look at how he sold at the peak. So, I personally believe that this kind of trend will continue because it is clear that they possess the most overwhelming future growth potential among companies. One of the things I have really felt while observing Tesla is...

What I mean is, hey, you really don't know about stocks. If the technology is good, that's great, but when people get excited, they think, Wow, I was right! They don't realize that you need to separate that. The quality of technology and the flow of stock prices are different. They can't seem to make that distinction. Even our technicians, the geniuses, struggle in this area. I felt that. There are complete geniuses, but when they come to the stock market, they say things like they don't know about stocks. No one really knows. They say, Why don’t you check the valuation? But why check the valuation? You can determine whether a stock is expensive or not by looking at the valuation. So, regarding American stocks, the problem is that there is no issue with American stocks; they are all good, but they are expensive.

There is a problem. Diago is just the same; I like all the videos. I like them very much. How do we deal with this unusual performance? What is the biggest problem? The issue is the market capitalization of 3. This is the current state of the U.S. stock market. Everything is good, really good, but the problem is that it's at a historical peak. Yes, but the issue is that, as I showed earlier with the KOSPI, when the U.S. market shakes, the Korean market also shakes. Moreover, the liquidity in Korea has dried up. This seems to be the biggest problem right now. 

Now, regarding the U.S. economy, thank you to Park Seung-hyun for sending this information. There are announcements related to ISM and the service industry. Let's take a look at this. Overall, business is doing well, but there are concerns that foot traffic in restaurants and other locations where our products are sold may decrease. The agricultural sector is struggling, and the housing market continues to decline due to rising borrowing costs.

All sectors are being affected. Single-family homes for sale, rental properties, construction, and housing materials are all impacted. The construction industry, along with financial and insurance activities, is on the rise. Healthcare and social support services continue to remain strong. Overall, business conditions are improving. However, in times of economic and political uncertainty, companies are trying to control costs, leading to a continued decline in the hiring of employees, contractors, and consultants. Layoffs are widespread across various businesses and industries. It seems that there has been a significant drop in corporate management and support services. The professional, scientific, and technical services sector is experiencing a downturn in business, making it more challenging than ever to find talent, and job opportunities are also decreasing. The overall tone is downcast.

The transportation window business and activities are active. The stable interest rates in this public industry affect investments in the unregulated business silo. I don't quite understand what this means, and the wholesale trade is impacted by high food costs affecting employment demand and customer demand, leading to poor sales performance and an overall occurrence of negative growth. Business activities are stable, and supplier costs are generally flat. However, it seems that this area is now showing signs of instability. As for wholesale, yes, that's correct. Moving on, the U.S. economy is strong in the employment sector, particularly in services, while the manufacturing sector has already entered a recession. People with assets continue to have a cushion, while those without assets and relying solely on their jobs are facing significant challenges, which have already begun. In the future, this will continue to be confirmed through delinquency rates and other indicators.

There will continue to be controversy over interest rates. As mentioned by the U.S. banks this time, if interest rates are not lowered quickly, there will be ongoing discussions about the possibility of a recession in the U.S. On one hand, it is natural for people to express such concerns, while on the asset side, some argue that the U.S. economy is solid and that any soft landing is still a long way off. This mixed perspective reflects the current economic situation in the U.S. Meanwhile, U.S. stock prices are soaring. Even if there is a correction of about 3% to 5%, it is not a significant adjustment; it can be seen as a normal correction. On the other hand, the Korean market, which lacks sufficient liquidity, may struggle if the U.S. market declines sharply. Thank you for joining us today.

Korea's stock market situation is really not good, and it's unfortunate to mention. It seems that there is a lot of frustration regarding the Korean market. The more you express your frustrations, the greater the opportunities become. A big chance is coming! I'm seriously wondering if I should take out a loan. However, I absolutely advise against using credit. Ordinary people should not use credit at all. I've seen many people fall into a downward spiral because of it, so you must avoid it. You should not engage in activities that only benefit brokerage firms; it's not good for you. 

Despite all this, Korean stocks have become really cheap. This is great! I'm excited! I hope that in about three years, things will improve. I want to buy a few stocks now and hold onto them. It seems like all the expenses of living abroad for three years could be covered. Why is this good? Well, it's all about business.

Companies with profits are now starting to emerge at a rate of two to three times the gold standard. This is very encouraging. So, as I mentioned last night during my appearance on Yonhap Infomax, from the perspective of foreign investors looking at the Korean market, there have been issues with governance. They have been repeatedly misled and deceived by various companies and funds. They even tried to pursue legal action but faced many challenges, leading them to think that these companies would never change. However, changes are beginning to happen. A prime example of this is Value Up. 

To calculate Value Up, you shouldn't just do a simple calculation. When Value Up starts to burn capital, it means that the profits generated are being distributed as dividends to shareholders, which reduces the cash held by the company. Additionally, there are other factors to consider.

If we eliminate suicides through incineration, it means we are reducing the capital. Stocks are capital, right? So, if the overall cash decreases, how do we assess a company's efficiency? We think about how well it uses its cash. One of the most important points when you invest in a company is whether it can utilize money better than you can. Therefore, whether a company becomes great as it grows in size hinges on whether it can maintain capital efficiency. This is key. The loyalty of the agents is crucial. So, when we delve deeper, qualitative assessments become much more important. Quantitative measures are there to evaluate the qualitative aspects. When the quantitative data becomes outdated, it turns into qualitative insights. What does that mean?

It's hard to understand, but you'll get it later. So, what does diligence mean? It means that the agents and executives hired by the company think of the company's money as their own and save it. Then, they ponder how to achieve the best results with that money, determining the best timing to utilize their professional influence. For example, if you have 100 million won, how much can you extract from it? With the cash you have, what percentage can you yield? What is that called? In English, it starts with A. What could it be? Yes, it's RO. This refers to how much money you can make with the cash you have. Now, look, if I ran my business well and started with a capital of 100 million won, and I actually earned 100 million won from that capital, then the next step is the capital.

How much is it? It's 200 million, right? Earning 100 million is really hard. Nevertheless, there are certain businesses you can run with 100 million. But if you have 200 million, can you earn that 200 million directly? Is it easier to earn 100 million with 100 million, or to earn 200 million with 200 million? At some point, having a larger capital size may make it easier to see returns. Now, does that make sense? Is it easier to earn 1 trillion with 1 trillion, or 2 trillion with 2 trillion? As the capital size increases, it actually becomes harder to make money. Do you not understand? Right now, I have 100 trillion in cash. Where can I go to earn that 100 trillion? Then, if I earn 100 trillion and it becomes 200 trillion, can I earn another 200 trillion? Is it easy? I earned 100 trillion, and it became 200 trillion, so do you think I can earn 200 trillion with 100 trillion from the business I’ve been doing?

But if you make 200 trillion with that, you need to bring in some new business. So maintaining the efficiency of this capital is really difficult. Yes, it gets harder as the size increases. However, there are companies that maintain their ROIs. There are functional companies. A representative example is that big companies have been able to maintain a very high ROI for decades. So they become huge corporations. But the important point regarding value-up in terms of ROI is that it's about maintaining capital without increasing it. For example, if my capital is 5 trillion and I earn 2 trillion, then it becomes 7 trillion. If I earn another 2 trillion, the return decreases, right? If I earn 2 trillion from 5 trillion, that's a 40% return. But if I earn 2 trillion from 7 trillion, how much is that? 30%. So the percentage drops by 10%.

RO is falling, but if we return profits to shareholders, I will give all my extreme profits back. I will return everything I earned. So what happens? If we make 2 trillion won and buy back 1 trillion won of our own shares and burn them, then we can give out 1 trillion won in dividends. The retained earnings remain the same, and the return on equity is maintained. Shareholders receive dividends, and the stock price rises, but the profit margin remains the same. Why wouldn't foreigners be interested? They are preparing to present that exact picture, and companies have started doing this. So, the only sector that has survived this year is the value sector. Therefore, everyone, focusing on value stocks is the way to go. Once the US market turns around, those that have dropped significantly will grow much faster.

Yes, if you look at it from that perspective, there are opportunities in Korea. Now, think about it this way: if value-up initiatives spread, as I mentioned earlier, we can clearly see profits two to three times higher. There are many instances where profits are around five times or so. So, what does that mean? It means that a real chance is coming. From that aspect, competitors are continuously leaving the Korean market. The number of competitors in the Korean market is decreasing, leading to a market that is transforming into one with fewer players. You need to consider this change as well. To summarize the key point I want to share with you in one sentence: do not focus on price, but concentrate on value. That is essential for your survival.

One of the best ways to succeed is to remember that. So I hope you keep that in mind. Thank you sincerely for being with us today. Goodbye.

[미국마감] 미, 하락 시작? 선반영?

[미국마감] 미, 하락 시작? 선반영?