미국 금리 인하: 경제적 영향과 가족 역학 관계

### 연말연시 이후의 성찰과 경제 변화 탐색하기
* 🎉 월요일 오후 1시에 재개되는 **'한 스푼의 경제학'**과 함께 안전한 연휴를 보내고 금융과 경제의 세계로 돌아오신 것을 환영합니다.
* 😟 즐거운 모임이 되어야 할 연말연시에 **비교와 기대치로 인해 가족 간의 갈등**이 발생하는 경우가 종종 있습니다.
* 💭 명절 역학 관계에 관한 주목할 만한 댓글은 **"진정으로 조상을 만난 사람들은 이제 해외에 있다"**고 강조하며 조상 제사를 둘러싼 갈등의 무의미함을 강조합니다.
* 📉 최근 미국의 금리 인하 발표는 **3년 가까이 지속된 장기간의 고금리 기조 이후 중대한 변화**를 의미합니다.
* 📊 미국 기준금리는 **5.2~5.5 사이로 0.5 또는 0.2 인하**가 예상되어 왔으며, 결국 오늘 아침 일찍 **0.5로 대폭 인하**가 발표되었습니다.
* 🔍 연방준비제도의 금리 인하 결정은 주로 인플레이션을 관리하고 **현재 4.2%에 달하는 실업률의 우려스러운 상승**에 대응하기 위한 것입니다.
* 🌬 새로운 경제 시즌에 접어들면서 변화하는 시장 상황 속에서 주의가 필요하다는 점을 강조하면서 **잠재적인 경기 침체에 대비**하는 것이 중요합니다.
* 🏬 유통업계에서는 **신세계와 이마트 같은 기업들이 막대한 재정적 손실**과 함께 경영 전략에 대한 진지한 성찰이 요구되는 등 전례 없는 도전에 직면해 있습니다.

### 논란의 여지가 있는 리더십과 경제 혼란: 기업 거버넌스에 대한 성찰
* ⚾ 이 이야기는 맥주 출시로 인해 반발에 직면한 한 야구팀 구단주가 **많은 사람들의 비판**을 받는 그의 관심을 끄는 행동을 강조하는 것으로 시작됩니다.
* 👩 상황을 생각해본 결과, 단 한 사람, 즉 **이전에 그의 장난에 대해 조치를 취했던 그의 어머니**만이 그를 훈육할 수 있다고 제안했습니다.
* 📉 정용진 부회장은 임원 인사를 단행하며 **불만을 표시하는 동시에 회사 방향성에 대한 통제권**을 유지하려 했습니다.
* ⚔ 정용진 부회장은 임원 숙청으로 혼란스러운 와중에 **프로야구 경기장에 난입해 결정에 항의**하는 등 논란을 일으켰고, 그의 리더십에 대한 비판을 더욱 부추겼습니다.
* 📱 주식 시장 하락과 투자자들의 불만 등 경제적으로 어려움을 겪고 있는 상황에서 **정 부회장의 소셜 미디어 게시물**은 비즈니스 환경의 현실과 동떨어진 부적절한 발언으로 여겨졌습니다.
* 💔 **삼성전자, 하이닉스 등 주요 기업의 주가가 큰 폭으로 하락**하는 등 경제 환경이 악화되면서 투자자들 사이에 불만이 팽배해졌습니다.
* 🌍 윤 장관의 체코 방문은 정치적 이슈가 아닌 경제적 이슈로 프레임이 전환되며, **원전 분야와 국제 경쟁 속에서 수익성 있는 계약 가능성**에 초점을 맞췄습니다.
* 💰 원전 프로젝트의 우선 협상 파트너를 확보한 것에 대한 초기 흥분에도 불구하고, 이러한 계약의 지속 가능성과 한국에 대한 잠재적 경제적 영향에 대한 우려가 제기되면서 **신중한 기업 지배구조의 필요성**이 강조되고 있습니다.

미국의 금리 인하는 겨울로의 전환을 의미하며, 경기 냉각과 잠재적 경기 침체에 대한 우려를 불러일으킵니다.

Welcome to the exciting world of finance and economics. I hope you had a great holiday. The holiday break has come to an end safely, and now we’re back with A Spoonful of Economics at 1 PM on Mondays. Before the holidays, I advised everyone to stay healthy; it’s important not to end up in the emergency room. It’s better to stay at home. We shared some warm wishes before parting ways, and I sincerely hope that all our readers spent their holidays peacefully.

After the holidays, there are often many grievances that arise. All sorts of issues seem to surface, such as comparisons between families: My in-laws did this well, or My parents did that well. Then there are discussions about spouses: My husband did this, or What’s wrong with my child compared to my niece who studies well? It’s supposed to be a holiday meant for happiness, yet there are families where tensions build up instead. That shouldn't happen. 

So, I have an interesting comment to share.

I will give you a cue. Yes, you must have seen the name of that comment a lot, right? Yes, you must have seen it many times. But that comment has many names. If you search for ancestor comment or holiday comment, it will come up. Among the comments that express that sentiment, the one that left the most impression on me is... Do you know what it is? Even though it's just a comment, it shook our society. If we were to rank them, that would be number one. Yes, that's right. It's all futile. People really fight over ancestral rites and family gatherings. It's all about the daughter-in-law being late. Why aren't the brothers doing anything? The father-in-law and husband are just sleeping. When people talk like this, it's all meaningless. Those who have truly met their ancestors are now overseas. Those who haven't seen them at all are sitting together and fighting. Ah, please let us know how to spend the holidays. It really gave me a great realization—a true masterpiece of a sentence.

Yes, that's right, everyone. Please try to find a way to be happy without fighting. After this holiday, if you ended up fighting, you shouldn't fight during the next holiday. If you think, Ah, I fought because of my careless words. Why did I ask my nephew if they got married, how their college is going, or if they found a job? Why did I have to stir up my brother-in-law's feelings? then you should avoid saying those things next time. Right? 

Additionally, there are still some brave people out there. Among those I met after the holiday, there were some who stayed two nights at their in-laws' and didn't stay at their parents' house. There are quite a few people who can't handle it. If that caused a fight, then what should you do? You can just do the opposite next time. Anyway, let's wisely make the holidays a day created for mutual happiness.

Yes, while struggling and fighting, I hope we can show wisdom so that such things don't happen. I wish that from now on, you all will have joyful holidays. Today, many regular customers have come again, and I am very grateful. Thank you, Myeon-i, AP Sagwa, and Neulige Salgi. Just hearing the phrase live slowly seems to bring sudden realizations. I was in such a hurry today, so thank you. Son So-hee, it's been a while since you came to watch the live stream. Thank you! Bang Ga-young, I appreciate you as a regular. Wi-heomhan Na-won, Ilpyeondanshin, and Mindeulle, thank you. Lee Jae-gyeol, thank you. Yoon Mi-so, Heuk-kyu, Doni, and Saimsaim, thank you. Lately, I've been seeing cat videos on Instagram, and they keep popping up after watching a few. Nyang Punch is so cute. Thank you, Ye-ke Kiseute!

Welcome back, Peace, Jong-il, and Yu-jin. Thank you so much; I really appreciate it. Now, let's get right into the news we have prepared for today. 

The news cue: In fact, this holiday was quite long, and there were so many stories. I realized that these are not just minor updates; each one could be treated as major news. So, even if there is a bit of a time lag, I want to share these great issues with you, which could make the week fly by. Among all these issues, if I had to pick the biggest news, it would have to be this one. And it's the freshest news we have, isn't it? The announcement of the U.S. interest rate cut that came out early this morning. Let’s discuss this clearly together. It's not difficult; it's easy.

Economic fluidity has always been easy. Yes, the United States has maintained a very high interest rate environment for a while. If we consider the end of 2021 as a critical point, from early 2022, interest rates have been rising sharply in a stepwise manner, leading us into a significant high-interest rate period that we are currently experiencing. However, if we look at the bigger picture, we can say that low-interest rate periods are like an ice age. After an ice age, glaciers melt, and suddenly the Earth can become colder again. Such drastic changes occur. Until now, we have lived through a long period of low interest rates, during which a lot of liquidity was released into the market. Then, we faced concerns about rising prices, worrying that inflation could become a serious issue. As a result, interest rates were increased. So, if we consider the timeline, we have been living in a high-interest rate era for about two and a half years, and if we extend that a bit longer, it has been nearly three years. That’s the significance of this era.

A period has been placed. That's right, it means that the era of high interest rates has come to an end. Now, the only thing left is for interest rates to go down. Yes, the seasons have changed. I don't know what summer and winter are anymore, but anyway, let's just call high interest rates summer. Now, finally, as the cold wind blows and the Chuseok holiday has passed, we have to take out our warm clothes, or else it will be too chilly to go outside. We are entering a new season, winter, which signifies a clear change, like a bullet being fired. Until now, the U.S. has been running interest rates between 5.2 and 5.5, let's just say 5.5 for convenience. The recent FOMC is predicted to lower interest rates. That's 100% certain and not an issue at all. However, the market is concerned about whether it will be a decrease of 0.5 or 0.2.

I was excited, but from my perspective, I think it was more like 0.2 out of 5 to 35. Yes, and actually, it should be noted that the forecast for 0.25 was a bit high at 65, but when we actually opened the lid, it turned out that a significant big cut was implemented at 0.5 this early morning. Now, the next question is, okay, I understand, but why did they make that cut? This is something we need to consider. There's nothing particularly difficult today; it’s not hard at all. However, I would like to emphasize that your mindset needs to change. There are various policy effects that can be achieved with interest rates, but the most significant one is related to inflation. When we look at whether we have achieved our target regarding prices, whether we have managed to control inflation in the U.S., we cannot say that we have reached that goal.

I expressed it like this: Yes, I'm confident about controlling prices. Well, I didn't hit the target of 100 points, but my goal was 100 points. I didn't reach 100, but I got over 90. I think I'll score 100 on the next exam; I'm confident about that. So, I'm confident about controlling prices, so that's settled. Then, what else is important? It's responding to the economy. Economic response is very important, everyone. It's crucial, but what if the economy suddenly takes a downturn? What if it suddenly gets cold? When you go to Southeast Asia, we might be okay with a few degrees, but if it drops to 0 degrees, it can stay at that temperature for a month, and then people say it's warm. However, in places like Southeast Asia, even if it gets to around 10 degrees, it can cause a cold wave. It's surprising, right? There, they don't have boilers, blankets, or even proper winter jackets, so when it gets to a certain temperature, people can suddenly freeze to death.

Yes, when it suddenly drops without preparation, it always becomes a problem. So if the economy cools down suddenly, it's a big issue, right? Therefore, managing it so that it does not become a big problem is very important. Regarding inflation, I am confident now, so let's move on. Then what’s left? It's economic management. But how do we manage the economy? There are numerous indicators for that. When we talk about growth this time, what is most important to the United States right now? It's employment and unemployment. Recently, the unemployment rate figure came out at 4.2. Well, what does 4.2 mean? What about 4.3? It's not really that important. Everyone is making headlines about it, but it's not a big deal. Anyway, a much higher unemployment rate than expected has finally started to emerge, and regarding employment, the outlook isn't good either. There are various scenarios predicting inflation.

There are various social laws and many different factors at play. However, do you know what has never failed? The unemployment rate, which is always 100% accurate. When the unemployment rate is high, it’s just a given; it's a straightforward symbol. Currently, the unemployment rate is rising significantly, higher than expected. This leads to concerns. If prices are stable, then we need to look at the economy, but we must manage to avoid a recession, and the key to that is employment. There are poor indicators coming from employment and unemployment. Therefore, before the situation worsens, we need to manage the currency aggressively and take preemptive measures. That’s why they decided to cut rates by 0.5. It’s really not a difficult interpretation. But now the next question arises: what kind of situation will this lead to?

Do we need to interpret this? Just now, I interpret it this way: it's not something difficult. Everyone, the seasons have changed, right? What season? We have entered a cold season, and we need to worry about a sharp cooling situation. Many people seem to not want to acknowledge this; various indicators and claims continue to emerge. They say, Well, since there’s a peak cut, what do you think will happen to the stock market? Are they cheering or what? In my view, all of that is meaningless. The important thing is that the season has changed; it has shifted to winter. Therefore, we need to be concerned about cooling. This is the most important point, everyone. Forget everything else; it is now winter. Prepare for winter. That’s why I strongly emphasized it in the thumbnail: prepare for winter. Yes, you need to prepare for winter. There are many interpretations, but what I'm most worried about is this... Ah, I should share another interesting story with you.

The reactions from the political sphere regarding the decision made by the U.S. Federal Reserve are quite interesting. Let me share a bit of this for fun. The Democratic response is, See, see? We are doing well! We have maintained the economic boom in the U.S. and controlled inflation through proactive interest rate cuts, and everything is great! This creates a positive atmosphere for them. 

As for Trump, what did he say? Yes, Trump clearly stated, Hey, don’t raise interest rates. If you lower them, I’ll take care of it. He also said, I told Powell not to raise rates, and he listens to me. If he does, I’ll ensure my popularity. Once I’m elected, I’ll take care of everything. 

So, regarding this interest rate decision, both parties have expressed their views. The Democrats are saying, Good, while Trump is...

It has opened up. So, actually, I'll just share that there is this kind of discussion. People asked Powell if this interest rate cut was politically motivated, considering the upcoming presidential election. Powell said, No, this is my fourth presidential election that I've experienced. I'm not that kind of person; I have no political motives. That's what he mentioned. 

So, there's no need to explain in detail; there's nothing complicated about it. The important message to take away is this: it has been slightly reduced, but whether it's favorable or unfavorable for sectors like biotech, pharmaceuticals, or AI, don't think about that. The core issue is that now it is winter. We are at the point where we should be worried about a severe economic downturn and recession.

변화가 있었고, 여러분은 그렇게 보셔야 합니다. 그런 측면에서 가장 걱정되는 것은 무엇일까요? 여러분, 기억하시나요? 한 달 전, 검은 금요일에 우리를 힘들게 했던 바로고 사태. 그 사태의 원인으로 지목된 것이 무엇인지 아시나요? 맞습니다, 캐리, 캐리, 캐리앤캐리. 그리고 우리 입장에서는 환율이 정말 중요한 부분입니다. 그 당시 어려운 건 아니었습니다. 일본의 금리는 너무 낮아서, 심지어는 마이너스였습니다. 은행에 맡기지도 말고, 그냥 가져가세요. 돈을 퍼다 가져가라고 하는 저금리가 일본에서 있었던 것이죠. 그러면 쉽게 생각해보면, 일본에서 공짜로 돈을 가져와서 미국에 투자하면, 앉은 자리에서 금리가 5.5%가 붙는 것입니다. 쉽게 생각하면 그렇습니다. 그러면 바보가 아닌 이상...

How does money flow out? It flows continuously to Japan and, for example, to various investment destinations, especially the United States. However, what happened last month? The U.S. announced it would lower interest rates, while Japan stated it would raise interest rates and that it would continue to do so in the future. So what happened? The entire world was startled. What happened? We had been living off carry trades, but there was pressure to liquidate those carries, and the whole world was taken aback. That day, there was a crash, and it was chaotic. If we forget what we learned a month ago, would that make us foolish? Yes, it would. What is the situation now? That's right, the U.S. has lowered rates by 0.5. And then...

I talked about it. It will go down more in the future. How will it go down more? This is what I’m saying. There is a dot plot, everyone. The Federal Reserve members say, I think it will be like this in the future, and they place a dot on it. It's like how we put dots on a dartboard. That’s what the dot plot is, but looking at the chart, the median value usually shows projections for 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, and 2 years ahead. The important thing is to focus only on the next 6 months. 

Looking at the median value of the dot plot for the end of the year and 3 months ahead, it has gone down from 5.5 to 5.0 this time. However, looking at the median value of the dot plot for 3 months later, it shows 4.3. What does this mean? If it’s 4.3 in 3 months, then the Federal Reserve will have two meetings ahead. They can’t just jump to 4.3 in one go. So what will happen? At least they will likely lower it by 0.25 at least twice. That’s something we can predict.

Yes, this time we lowered it by 0.5, and next time by 0.25, and then it will continue to decrease until it reaches 0. The U.S. interest rates are going down as we head into winter. Tomorrow, there will be a significant announcement in Japan. Will the Japanese interest rates go up tomorrow? They won’t, but what’s important is the statement. Last time, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised the interest rate from 0 to 0.1. It wasn't about the rate itself; what mattered was that they entered a practical range. The statement was crucial then. They mentioned they would raise rates further and move towards a more practical era, and that message was important. Tomorrow, we will also hear similar statements. Additionally, during the Chuseok holiday, we briefly broke below 140 before rising slightly again. This is important. The U.S. will definitely...

In a situation where interest rates are decreasing in some places and increasing in Japan, what does this mean, everyone? Just a month or two ago, the situation was similar to Black Friday. Some people believe that a significant portion of the carry trades has already been liquidated, but no one knows the exact scale of it. However, liquidation will occur with a time lag. This is important because we cannot predict where confusion and fear might arise. The emerging markets you have invested in, whether it be Brazil, India, or the United States, could all face liquidation pressures. It’s a double whammy. So, while U.S. interest rates are falling and we are heading into winter, the pressure from carry trade liquidations means that there is a high possibility of capital exiting from anywhere. Therefore, confusion and fear are waiting for you ahead.

어떡하냐, 우리는 정신을 바짝 차릴 수밖에 없다라는 겁니다. 자, 그러면 국내 상황으로 돌아와 보겠습니다. 항공 은행은 어떻게 할 거야? 어떻게 할 거야? 라고 하니까, 나도 내리고 싶지, 내리고 싶지. 왜냐하면 우리는 미국보다 금리가 전통적으로는 살짝 높거나 비슷해야 했어요. 근데 지금은요, 이번에 미국이 내리면서 1.5 차이나나요? 1.5 차이나. 그러니까 아직도 우리가 미국 밑에 있어요. 그러니까 우리가 꼭 내려야 된다고 해서 미국과의 상황을 보자면 굳이 내려야 될 이유는 없습니다. 하지만 문제는 내수가 너무 안 좋아요. 경기가 너무 안 좋아서 내리고 싶은데 못 내린 이유는 가게 부채와 부동산 때문인데, 이제 고민이 점점 더 세져요. 미국이 금리를 내렸으니까 한국 너도 좀 내릴 여유가 있어?

You know, when they say to lower it a bit, that's the pressure from the government and ruling party. On one hand, they have set fire to the real estate market, which means the Bank of Korea cannot lower interest rates. Now, we are finally approaching a choice; we cannot avoid this sandwich situation. The situation of having to resolve this sandwich scenario is ticking away, and time is running out. That's how you should see it. 

There are a lot of sensational news reports here and there, but it's not that important. Just take this message with you: Oh, the season has changed, so let's be careful. There could be fears stemming from the economic downturn, particularly from the U.S., and great chaos and panic could arise. Just keep this in mind; you don't need to memorize the other details. This is what I think. 

Now, let's take a break and watch an advertisement. Let's move on.

It seems that the Lotte Card advertisement has come out first. Yes, I will talk about the Lotte Card. Thank you all for your enthusiastic responses. We are running an event where you can receive tremendous benefits by applying for a Lotte Card at our Seadong Wiki Store. It only takes a minute to apply, and once you receive it and make a payment, you can get amazing benefits, such as a refund of 100,000 won. 

Basically, that's the situation. Additionally, there are points that accumulate, and the benefits particularly focus on those who have pets. This card has many benefits for pet owners, and now it has been expanded. What has been added? Benefits related to cars, such as oil changes and more. Everyone has a car, right? So, there are now benefits concentrated on car-related expenses with this card as well.

Everyone, please make sure to apply and take a look. Since you've traveled a long way, you should also get your car serviced. With winter approaching, when you're considering changing your car, please prepare for winter supplies as well and make use of your Lotte card. Now, let's move on to the next news. What is the current situation? I brought this up again because I'm the killer of Shinsegae, right? For those who didn't know, let me briefly explain the current situation of Shinsegae. The retail number one, the pride of South Korea's distribution industry, used to dominate the market, claiming, I am the best! However, those days feel like a distant memory. Shinsegae is now breaking through its historically lowest stock price range and is facing the worst situation. Shinsegae Construction, in just a couple of days, is dealing with unsold properties in the provinces.

If the issues are not resolved, there will be liquidity problems. The group is currently in a frenzy, scrambling to invest money here. E-Mart is facing the worst deficit in its history. What is happening is that they are accepting applications for voluntary retirement, and the situation is a complete mess. If there is good land available, E-Mart is considering selling its branches and land; that is the current situation. They have started using computers and are trying to enter new e-commerce markets, but they are struggling against Coupang and are incurring massive losses. The ongoing dispute with private equity funds exceeding 1 trillion won has not yet been resolved. If it is not settled by the end of the year, E-Mart will have to invest over 1 trillion won and buy shares, creating a very complicated situation. It is the worst-case scenario. However, there are many companies in the distribution sector that are interconnected. Our employees, who are also stakeholders, and the numerous suppliers are also involved in this. Distribution margins...

Even if E-Mart or Shinsegae were to thrive, considering the countless businesses that are ultimately living economically through that platform, it would have a significant social impact. Currently, E-Mart and Shinsegae are in a disastrous situation, arguably the worst in their history. So, it's really chaotic. Why are they managing so poorly? It should be a time for serious reflection. Instead of focusing on management, they're caught up in social media, constantly posting on Instagram. Let me share a few things I posted before. If you can't find them, that's fine. There was a post with Xi Jinping's face prominently displayed, and underneath it, it said, Down with communism, anti-communism, counterintelligence. The E-Mart group is saying that China is finished. Yes, China is done for. The image has been circulating, but it shouldn't be. No, no, China is...

This is not possible. Are we crazy? Is it sane for someone in the distribution industry to give up on the world's second-largest market? It's over now. Shinsegae and E-Mart are finished. I still can't believe this. Please post that photo with the face of the season. It's the one on the left. Anyway, please upload it. Just upload anything. I don't even need to find it. Also, I posted a photo of the anti-communism and counterintelligence campaign. You all know about the Dokdo shrimp, right? They say the sweetness is exceptional. So, during the Moon Jae-in administration, we actually showcased the Dokdo shrimp during a diplomatic event when President Biden visited. That must have been the case. So, this has significance, right? As we discuss the issues with Japan, it all ties back to Dokdo.

This is what I'm saying: Dokdo is our territory, and we've raised awareness about it. It was quite popular as a symbol. However, our professor Jung, or rather, my brother Jung Young-jin, gets quite upset. It's not Professor Jung, it's Chairman Jung who posts about Dokdo on Instagram. He posts a picture of Dokdo shrimp and makes a statement in Japanese. Why did he have to write it in Japanese? It feels like he's twisting our words. We simply refer to it as Dokdo, but he insists on using a different term on purpose. This is a deliberate choice. While the whole nation loves Dokdo, he boldly posts on Instagram, as if to provoke. And then he talks about getting a hole-in-one.

Aren't you going to post a picture? Then, because of the baseball team, the owner was busy launching a beer. Oh, it's obvious that he was attention-seeking. Yes, it was the worst situation, and he received a lot of criticism. So later on, I thought it would be nice if someone could give him a spanking, but there is only one person on Earth who could do that. Do you know who it is? Mom. Yes, mom finally took the spanking last year. So, Lee Yong-jin thought it was fun to play the attention-seeking game. Oh, my calves! he said while just messing around. How are you going to hit me? Who are you hanging out with? Friends, you know? Yes, so Chairman Chung Yong-jin cuts all the executives he had appointed. Don't hang out with bad friends. That's not really the case, though. While cutting those executives, it's basically the same thing: You guys didn't serve Jeong Yong-jin well, or something like that. So, all the executives...

They cut off and cut off, and while bringing back the old executives from the past, they said, Hey, let's make sure Yong-jin can't do any of that nonsense. So, a massive purge was carried out last year. But even on that day, they couldn't keep their composure. The bloody purge happened, and the executives who had been cut off were in chaos. Even on that day, our Chairman Jeong Yong-jin, known for his attention-seeking behavior, did something like this. It seems there was a controversy over a decision in the SSG game. Whether they won or lost against another baseball team, it went like this: As the team owner, I'm going to protest. So, he barged into professional baseball. For the first time in history, a team owner barged in, saying, Come out! Can I just decide this as the owner? He also posted on Instagram, saying, Today, we were robbed of victory.

There are many words, but I will no longer speak. I hope that there will never be such biased judgments again due to this incident. Meanwhile, the loop is currently falling apart, and they are boasting about it on their Instagram, writing such things as if it's something to be proud of. It's completely insane. Even though they are receiving criticism, it's far too much. This kind of behavior, even if it’s done for attention, is not a good kind of attention. As the head of a corporation, this is the worst. It's terrible. Posting on Instagram while throwing away the Chinese market, turning the entire nation into enemies, and continuously posting political content while also sharing personal matters without any consideration is unacceptable. This is how things have turned out. Stop with the Instagram and get your act together. When I pointed out the risks, there was silence for about six months.

However, the attention-seeking behavior is evident. The other day, I finally posted a photo on Instagram after a long time. Is the photo ready? Please upload it. Oh, they posted that again. They posted it again. Freedom is not free. Our chairman of the board has indeed posted it. What does it mean? Freedom is not free. I can only guess that. What does President Yoon Seok-youl mean when he talks about freedom? Yes, personal freedom, the freedom of the privileged, the freedom of those who have power, the freedom of conservative pro-Japanese forces. Isn't that the freedom we're talking about? Yes, but now that freedom is under attack. By whom? By the anti-corruption forces, the anti-national forces, the communist totalitarian forces. Freedom is under attack. Let's fight back. North Korea, let's go to war with them. Yes, someone who hasn't even served in the military is saying that.

I started getting frustrated again due to being overweight, but it's not because of a social issue; it's genuinely because I'm exasperated. Investors in our country are feeling extremely frustrated right now. The stock market is down today, right? The U.S. interest rates are affecting us, and it's dropping again. Samsung Electronics is hitting new lows, and Hynix is crashing. I will cover this again tomorrow. The market sentiment is poor; everyone is really angry. The KOSDAQ is also plummeting. How can our stock market be dropping more than Palestine? It feels like a war itself. It's completely devastated. What is happening to the companies I invested in? Why are their performances like this? Stop just talking about small stocks and do something properly. I'm not just angry; I'm truly filled with rage and despair.

In such a situation, large corporations should truly set an example and move forward. However, the head of the group has started using Instagram again. What is this? Is this just political posturing? This is truly disheartening; it makes one feel hopeless and resigned. Can we expect any hope from E-Mart or the Shinsegae Group now? Is this the message they want to send to the entire nation? Is this even appropriate or timely? It’s absurd for someone leading a major conglomerate to behave this way; they seem completely out of touch. 

So, I want to address this from an economic perspective. It's difficult for me to tell you when to buy or sell your stocks, but I must say to those who hold Shinsegae stocks: it is truly frustrating that your stock's rise and fall is now in the hands of someone like this.

I want to say that if it were in America, I would have been cut off in the evening. Yes, I was cut off in the evening. However, thanks to my mom, I'm still having a great time pretending to be the chairman. Now, let's talk about the next advertisement, which is for Ginseng Pure White. It's my favorite drink, Ginseng Pure White. Just drinking it makes my energy levels soar. Ginseng Pure White is the best product made with Korean ginseng. It comes from a clean area where ginseng is grown. Everyone, I've been enjoying this even before I started advertising it; it’s been sitting in my fridge. It’s true! It’s my prized possession. It’s great for gifts during the Chuseok holiday. I don’t know, but now, please give me a gift. I’ve been going back and forth to my in-laws, driving for 10 hours to Busan, and it’s been tough. Oh, and I shouldn’t be too attached these days, right? Yes, that’s all I wanted to say.

Anyway, I hope that all of us who have been struggling, including our daughters-in-law, can gather our strength for family and peace. Please try ordering by typing 300 at the 166-1080 portal. If you have called, please leave a message. Now, let's move on to the My Insurance Check advertisement. Yes, our family insurance is essential. Since many of you have visited during the holiday, I heard that someone got a job. Where is it? Oh, it's at a certain life insurance company. They also mentioned that an uncle took out another insurance policy. So, there are quite a few insurance policies, right? Yes, that's right. Please give them a call; it's free. It's a money-making call. So, are you well covered with the insurance you have for your family? Is there any imbalance? I've heard it's a trend these days. Can I remove anything from it? You can get coaching and rebalancing if you ask.

This is a free phone service where money accumulates. Please make sure to call My Insurance Check. Since I know it can help you save money, I recommend it. In the advertisement, they mention the importance of taking the right herbal supplements, like ginseng. Thank you. To stay by our young queen's side for a long time, we must consistently take our ginseng. Enjoy a long life, indeed. It’s said that this ginseng comes from the Jirisan area. It’s fascinating to see the difference in how I feel when I take it versus when I don’t. It’s like my brain opens up and I feel recharged. Please try it. My Insurance Check introduces a trustworthy insurance expert who objectively evaluates your insurance status and offers fair assessments and reasonable alternatives. My Insurance Check prioritizes the interests of policyholders, checking whether the insurance you already have is suitable and identifying what is truly necessary.

We help you maintain your insurance contracts well, providing advice and assistance in analyzing coverage for unnecessary or lacking insurance based on your current situation. We recommend optimal insurance products with comprehensive coverage at affordable premiums. My Insurance Check handles 35 property and life insurance companies, so we do not recommend just one company. We do not simply recommend products with high premiums; instead, we focus on providing the most necessary and reasonable products for our clients. Through consultations, we offer reasonable options, and the final decision is left to the insurance consumer. Above all, a conscientious insurance expert will remodel the plan according to the client's situation through accurate analysis. Please contact My Insurance Check for a free consultation and receive a reasonable insurance plan. Visit our website, My Insurance Check, in Korean.

You can add the My Insurance Check channel on .com or KakaoTalk, or you can call the representative number at 1800-7917. It's important to note that there are many companies claiming to be My Insurance Check, so don't be deceived. The real My Insurance Check has an orange hand mark, so please make sure to check for that. Also, verify that the representative number 1800-7917 is correct. Now, let's get started. Dear subscribers, insurance is through My Insurance Check. Some comments mention, Oh, seeing Jeong Yong-jin is annoying, but just to clarify, Olive Young is not Jeong Yong-jin; that belongs to CJ, so please don't get confused. Olive Young is CJ, and there are many discussions about Samsung as well. Unfortunately, we have to address Samsung and SK Hynix; I'll cover that for you. Now, let's move on to the next news. After the holiday, I had some issues during the break, and my health has not been great.

Until this morning, I was feeling quite bad, and since it's been a while since I've broadcasted, I'm not speaking very quickly and I'm a bit out of touch. I hope you understand. 

Next news: President Yoon has gone to the Czech Republic. Yes, the president and the first lady. Now, I'm not trying to talk about politics here; I think it's more about economics. The reason for the visit is not complicated, but I'm not going to write it down. They talk about strategic partnerships and such, but that's all nonsense. The real reason is simple: it was about nuclear power. 

But why is this not a political issue but an economic one? That's right, everyone. There are related stocks in the nuclear power sector. So, I can't help but mention that since the president has gone, it might be a good thing for investors.

What on earth is happening? Let me explain it clearly and simply. The Czech Republic is building a nuclear power plant. They said, Hey, we're going to build a nuclear power plant because we're going to tackle the power shortage with it. So, anyone interested internationally, bring it on! They opened up bidding, but what do you know? The United States pulled out, France pulled out, and we got involved too. We had some of the best competitors, especially from Europe, with France right next door. But Europe was pushed aside, and the United States was pushed aside too. Guess what? Our country was selected. What were we selected for? Well, we were chosen as the preferred negotiation partner. It caused quite a stir. The government was excited, saying that Yoon Suk-yeol's nuclear diplomacy is amazing. They claimed it was the first time in ten years since Lee Myung-bak that we were exporting nuclear power, with a whopping 24 trillion won deal. It was a huge deal, causing quite a commotion. And regarding the consortium that includes Korea Electric Power Corporation and Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power, I won't go into details.

I'll do it. With the company involved here, the stock price skyrocketed, and it soared for about five days, or was it three days? I'm not exactly sure. It did rise, but what happened next? Well, it fell sharply. This is where the mysterious events begin. Let's see, if we secured contracts worth over 20 trillion won, when that money comes in, companies like Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power and others would be saying, Wow, this is a jackpot! So, I tried to check the stock, and surprisingly, they said in Europe that it was unbelievable. How could it be that Korea outperformed both France and the U.S.? Upon closer inspection, it turned out that when we calculated the costs we incurred, including construction costs, France had submitted a price of about $7,900 per watt. To put it simply...

If you give me around 70 million won, I can build it for you. For example, something like that. But if Korea, for instance, compromises 100 times, we're talking about around 7,000 dollars per watt. To put it simply, maybe around 6,900 or 6,800, if I slightly lower the price. I don't know. But when we looked at the selected unit price, it was about 3,571 dollars per watt. So, to put it simply, France said, I'll build it for about 70 million won per pyeong, and then suddenly, someone from Korea appeared and said, I, Kim from Joseon, will build it for 3,000 per pyeong. That's what happened. And then we received the contract through a shocking dump. News about this spread rapidly across Europe, Korea, and foreign media. But then, when we really looked into the details, we found out that it was offered at an incredibly low price.

What does this mean? If you do this, is there anything left? No, there isn't. So what is this? You give away a lot and suffer, but you can't make any money. What is this all about? This is how it turned out. The stock prices keep falling and return to their original state. Trying to do that was completely useless. Now, this was something that happened after the selection of the preferred negotiation target, but another event occurred. The U.S. started to impose restrictions on nuclear exports. There’s a company called Westinghouse, and whenever they say something, they impose restrictions. When Korea tries to say something, they respond with, “Wait a minute, we’ll try to export to the United Arab Emirates.” During Lee Myung-bak’s administration, they did that, and Westinghouse said, “You can't do that without my permission. The core technology belongs to me,” and imposed restrictions. So, because of that...

I couldn't win, so I said, Okay, okay, okay, take the royalties, take the royalties, and I jumped to give them 10%. They caused a ruckus right there and took 2 trillion won. These are kids with such a history. When we were trying to export nuclear power plants to Poland, we were all set up, but Westinghouse said, No way, Korea can't do it, I need to receive my royalties, and they made it difficult, so they filed a lawsuit in a U.S. court. I thought, Oh no, this is a big problem, but then in the first trial, Westinghouse lost. So I thought, Is this the end of the ankle-grabbing? and I was praising myself. But the reason Westinghouse lost is this: they claimed that the original source of the nuclear technology that Korea had was theirs. They said that without their agreement, it couldn't be exported. But what did KEPCO say? What did Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power say? They said, No, that's old news; now we have independent technology.

This is about a situation where, regardless of your technology, you are talking about unrelated technology. Then, Westinghouse responds by saying, Oh, in the American court, hey, America, please help bring down the pride of the Koreans and block them from exporting. They filed a lawsuit like that. At that time, the American court ruled against Westinghouse, stating, Requesting an export ban on nuclear technology is something the U.S. government has to request. You are not the U.S. government. You can't just demand money or claim your technology was stolen. I don’t know about this civil lawsuit, but only the government can ask for an export ban. Since you are not the government, why are you suing? You have no standing as a plaintiff. Get out of here. So, they faced a dismissal for lack of standing. In other words, Westinghouse...

The companies always claim that Korea's nuclear technology is their own, and that they must receive permission from me. However, that has not been judged under U.S. law. The request to prohibit exports is not something you can make; it will be made by the government. You should step back. This is how the judgment has come about. In reality, it is not that we can export freely with our independent technology without interference from Westinghouse. The challenges from Westinghouse are habitual and have always existed, and they will continue to do so. However, even though this issue has not been resolved legally, we have independently entered the bidding for the Czech nuclear power plant. Now, what is the U.S. saying? What is Westinghouse saying? They are saying, Hey, these kids still don't understand what I’m saying, and once again, they are trying to impose their challenges. So now, it feels like we are being caught from behind.

This is the situation we find ourselves in. However, this time, the circumstances are a bit different. What's different? Well, it seems that a strong tackle is coming in. The U.S. government is noticing that South Korea is trying to bypass us. In the past, they just coughed up a couple of trillion, and that was fine. Now they want to continue like that. They need to acknowledge royalties for the core technology and start paying, or they should give subcontracting work. They need to provide job opportunities. Westinghouse needs to make a living, and our American brothers need to make a living too. Of course, Westinghouse is not currently a U.S. company; it has a major shareholder. Anyway, we also need to make a living. I think this is the normal way to proceed, but it seems that South Korea is trying to completely bypass the U.S. and is acting completely on its own.

They are trying to do that, which is a bit disappointing. So, the Americans are currently really putting pressure on this issue. We have talked about it with the Czech authorities and also with those reviewing in Europe, and we are continuously discussing it with the U.S. government. Initially, the Czech government thought it was fine for Americans to invest 12, and when they asked Koreans, they said it was okay too, so they assumed it was alright. However, as the numbers kept coming in, like 12 turning into one, two, three, four, five punches, the Czech authorities realized the situation was serious. They thought that if they proceeded with the contract with Korea without the approval of the U.S., it would lead to significant international complications. So now, they have started sending a lot of questions to Korea, asking what is going on. In this context, you can see that there is nothing good about President Yoon's policies. There isn't a single good thing. I deliberately mention President Yoon Seong-yeol.

I'm not trying to make excuses; there really isn't anything. As a result, the only achievements that can be touted are defense exports and nuclear power plant exports. So, we need to deliver on the nuclear power plant exports, and right now, we have reached a preliminary negotiation for the Czech nuclear power plant. Soon, we will have to finalize the main contract, but just before that, problems are starting to arise. They say things like dumping is not acceptable and the Americans won't allow it. This creates a strange atmosphere in the Czech Republic. They are starting to think, Why is it so difficult to work with South Korea? The issues with the U.S. are not being resolved well. So, I'm rushing over there, saying, Don't do this, Czech friends. Please don't. I can't trust this, trying to find a way to tie everything up. However, it's difficult to finalize everything. But let's say we manage to finalize it.

The issue is that this is economically significant for you. As I mentioned earlier, there is dumping, and upon conducting a thorough investigation, it seems that it truly is dumping. But what does our government say? They claim it is not dumping because the French lack the technology, so they are building it at 7,700. Meanwhile, we can build it cheaply because we use cutting-edge technology. This indicates that our technology is superior. However, who believes this? Why is it that only we can build it at half the price? There is no such capability. No, there isn't. Furthermore, the contract details are quite extensive. We need to provide financing, facilitate technology transfer, meet the technological standards in Europe, and employ a large workforce there. We also have to place orders through the Czech company.

Through the company, we need to distribute materials and so on. In the end, we are likely to face a lot of hardships, and it's almost certain that all the money will be drained. The U.S. is also very firm on this matter. In this situation, if we were to reach a conclusion, what would it be? That's right, we need to check and ensure that we gain more benefits and provide more safety measures. We also have no choice but to pay the costs to the U.S. 

So, if we confidently say that we went to the U.S. and boldly signed a deal to become a better contractual partner, or that we agreed to a main contract, it would still have little economic significance. Therefore, I advise you not to be misled when the nuclear power theme stocks are playing tricks around the time of the Czech visit.

Today, I talked about the economy in the context of sponsorship. So, let's get started. Don't be fooled, everyone. That's right. Now, shall we take a look at some comments? Yes, please share your good comments, and if you have any questions, feel free to ask. Thank you. The questions you mentioned are mostly about Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Also, I shared a video related to the economic revival plan we discussed previously. Those who watched that video will know that there was a recommended stock from Lee Kwang-soo, the representative of Kwangsoo's Fortune House, and I also have a few recommended stocks. It’s already been about a week or ten days since I picked those stocks, and they are currently skyrocketing. So, if you read the book and come to the book center, I will provide you with money-making information.

I mentioned one of the stocks back then, which is Korea Zinc. Yes, there was a big event that happened with Korea Zinc. If you had listened to my advice and bought it, you would have seen a profit of over 100,000 won by now. Anyway, there are currently issues with Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and even Korea Zinc. There's also the situation with New Jeans, which is going live, and the mini Jin Hive incident, as well as various issues with electric vehicles. There’s so much to cover, but please join me again tomorrow. I will prepare the most urgent and interesting content for you. Thank you, and that’s it for today’s broadcast. Goodbye.

(경제한스푼) 미 금리 0.5%p 빅컷, 혼돈과 공포가 다가온다 #박시동#금리인하#미연준#한은#파월

전문 분야인 경제, 법, 정치 뿐만 아니라
음악, 예술, 여행, 역사 같은 
재미있는 이 세상 모든 이야기들을
이해하기 쉽게~~~
고~~~급지게^^ 해설해 드리겠습니다.

*방송/강연/협업/비니지스 문의 : bubdory@hanmail.net


시동위키

연말연시 시즌과 미국 금리 인하의 영향

연말연시에는 가족 간에 불만과 긴장이 쌓여 갈등이 발생하는 경우가 많습니다.

연사는 명절에 싸우지 않고 행복을 찾고 과거의 실수로부터 배우는 것이 중요하다고 강조합니다.

미국은 거의 3년 동안 고금리 환경을 유지해 왔지만 최근 발표에 따르면 고금리 시대의 종언을 알리는 저금리로의 전환 가능성을 시사하고 있습니다.

최근 실업률이 크게 상승하고 경제 지표가 부진해 경기 침체 가능성에 대한 우려가 커지면서 0.

5%의 기준금리 인하가 단행되었습니다.

연사는 현 상황을 갑작스러운 계절 변화에 비유하며 경제 관리와 심각한 경기 침체에 대비하는 것이 중요하다고 강조했습니다.

민주당은 금리 인하의 성공을 주장하고 트럼프는 금리 인상의 필요성을 비판하는 등 금리 인하에 대한 정치권의 반응이 엇갈리고 있지만, 파월 연방준비제도 의장은 이번 결정의 정치적 동기를 부인하고 있습니다.

최근 금리 변동으로 인해 글로벌 금융 시장이 큰 혼란을 겪고 있으며, 특히 캐리 트레이딩에 영향을 미치고 있습니다.

미국은 금리를 인하했고, 일본은 금리를 인상할 것으로 예상되어 다양한 투자처에서 자금 이탈이 발생할 가능성이 있습니다.

경기 침체와 한국은행의 금리 인하 압력으로 인해 상황은 더욱 복잡해져 긴장되고 불확실한 금융 환경이 조성되고 있습니다.

롯데카드의 혜택과 신세계의 고군분투

롯데카드는 반려동물과 자동차 관련 비용을 중심으로 10만원 환급, 포인트 적립 등 파격적인 혜택을 제공하고 있습니다.

한때 한국 유통업계의 독보적인 존재였던 신세계는 현재 사상 최저 주가와 미분양 부동산으로 최악의 위기를 맞고 있습니다.

이마트도 막대한 손실을 입고 직원들의 희망퇴직을 고려하는 등 어려움을 겪고 있으며, 사모펀드와의 분쟁이 계속되면서 회사의 어려움이 가중되고 있습니다.

정용진 부회장의 이목을 끄는 행동이 회사 내 혼란을 야기하며 임원들의 대규모 퇴진으로 이어졌습니다.

프로야구 시위를 비롯해 인스타그램에 정치적인 글을 올리는 등 논란의 여지가 있는 그의 행동은 비판을 불러일으키고 기업에 대한 부정적인 이미지를 만들었습니다.

현재의 경제 상황과 주식 시장 하락은 투자자들의 불만을 가중시켰고, 회사의 리더십과 방향성에 대한 우려를 불러일으켰습니다.

내 보험 확인은 보험 요구 사항을 평가하고 공정한 평가를 제공하는 무료 전화 서비스를 제공합니다.

이 서비스는 보험 계약자의 이익을 우선시하며 저렴한 보험료로 포괄적인 보장을 제공합니다.

여러 보험사를 취급하고 고객의 니즈에 맞는 맞춤형 상담을 제공하는 것이 이 회사의 고유한 접근 방식입니다.

원자력 발전소 계약의 복잡한 역학 관계

한국의 한 기업이 엄청나게 낮은 가격에 원자력 발전소를 건설하겠다고 제안해 시장을 혼란에 빠뜨리고 뉴스가 급속도로 확산되었습니다.

핵심 기술권을 가진 미국 웨스팅하우스는 한국의 원전 기술 수출 노력에 제동을 걸고 소송을 제기했습니다.

법적 공방에도 불구하고 한국은 체코의 원자력 발전소 입찰에 독자적으로 참여하면서 미국 및 웨스팅하우스와의 긴장이 고조되고 있습니다.

미국과 한국의 원자력 발전소 거래로 인한 체코에 대한 압력

미국이 체코에 투자 관련 압력을 가하면서 체코는 상황을 재평가하고 있습니다.

체코 정부는 처음에는 미국인과 한국인 모두 투자해도 괜찮다고 생각했지만, 그 수가 늘어나면서 상황의 심각성을 깨달았습니다.

한국과의 원자력 발전소 계약은 덤핑과 미국의 비협조 등의 문제로 인해 협력 분위기가 어려워지는 등 난관에 직면해 있습니다.