미국 주택 시장: 재고 위기 및 변화하는 역학 관계 분석

### 미국 주택 시장 재고 위기 이해하기
* 🏠 미국 주택 시장은 지난 4년간 **기록적인 재고 위기**에 직면해 있으며, **기존 주택 시장과 신규 주택 시장 모두** 영향을 받고 있습니다.
* 📉 기존 주택 시장은 **연간 370만 채의 주택이 판매**되는 반면, 신규 주택 시장은 **연간 61만 9,000채의 주택이 판매**되고 있습니다.
* 📊 기존 주택 시장의 월 공급량은 **3.7건으로 매우 낮은 수준**이지만, **2022년 1월의 역사적 최저치인 1.6건보다 증가**했습니다.
* 🏗 신규 건설 시장의 월 공급량은 **9.3건**으로 균형 수준인 **6.0건**을 훨씬 상회하며, 재고의 **80%가 건설 중이거나 아직 착공되지 않은 상태**입니다.
* 📈 미국 주택 시장의 총 월 공급량은 **4.5개월로 2015년 이후 가장 높음**에 따라 지역별로 편차가 있어 일부 시장에서는 가격 상승 압력을 느끼고 있습니다.
* 🏢 6월에는 건축업자의 **29%가 주택 가격을 평균 6% 인하**했으며, **61%는 모기지 금리 인하와 같은 판매 인센티브**를 사용했습니다.
* 📉 완공된 신규 주택 재고가 **30%에 도달하면 가격 인하가 심화**되고 건설 인력이 일자리를 잃을 수 있습니다.
* 🔮 완공된 주택의 재고가 증가하고 구매자 수요가 침체되면서 **신규 주택에 대한 건축 허가가 다시 감소**하는 등 상황이 빠르게 변화하고 있습니다.

미국 주택 시장은 기존 주택은 공급이 부족하고 신규 주택은 높은 공급 수준으로 급변하는 재고 위기에 직면해 있습니다.

the US housing market has been facing a record inventory crisis over the last 4 years. But the situation is changing rapidly. There is also a ton of false information about the US housing market and the level of inventory. So in this video, we're going to uncover the true inventory situation across the entire US housing market. We're going to examine the differences between the existing Home Market and the new Home Market, show the best inventory measure to follow, and highlight what it says now and then outline what this means for the US housing market and broader US economy going forward. In order to get the most accurate reading on the US housing market inventory situation, we need to consider both supply and demand. Supply in this case is the level of inventory for sale, and demand is the current pace of sales volume. If we start with sales volume, we can see the existing Home Market has a sales pace of roughly 3.7 million homes per year, while the new Home Market has a sales pace of 619,000 homes per year right off the bat.

we can see how the existing Home Market is almost six times larger than the new construction market in terms of sales volume. Both of these markets, existing and new, have seen a huge reduction in sales volume or buyer demand since interest rates have increased, as affordability is out of reach for most people. If we take this annual sales pace and divide it by 12, we can get an idea of the average sales pace per month. Of course, there are seasonal patterns, but if we normalize for those effects, we can see that the current monthly sales pace in the existing Home Market is roughly 309,000, and the new construction market is selling about 51,000 homes per month. At the peak of the housing boom during the pandemic, the existing Home Market had a sales pace of 500,000 units per month, and the new construction market was selling nearly 990,000 units per month. Now that we have an idea of the current level of demand, we have to look at supply or the level of inventory for sale in the existing Home Market.

are currently 1.1 million homes for sale, one of the lowest on record. If we just look at inventory alone in the new construction Market, there are 479,000 units for sale, one of the highest levels on record, only surpassed by the housing bubble of 2007. You can clearly see how there is nuance to the situation of US housing inventory. The best measure of US housing inventory takes into account both supply and demand and is called the month supply. In other words, how many months of inventory are available for the current pace of sales volume. If we take the current level of inventory for both the existing Home Market and the new home market, and we divide it by the current monthly pace of sales, we can see how many months it would take to sell all the inventory at the current pace of sales. In the existing Home Market, that month supply figure, or the inventory level divided by the sales volume, is 3.7. In the new construction Market, it is 9.3. Generally speaking, the 5.5 to 6.0

level is considered a balanced market, where there is no significant upward or downward pressure on prices. When the month's Supply level is below 5.5, that means there is very little inventory available for today's market conditions, and prices generally rise. On the flip side, a high level of month supply means there's too much inventory, and prices must fall. The existing Home Market has a month supply of 3.7, which is very low, but it's been increasing since the absolute historic level of 1.6 in January 2022. Never in the history of the US housing market has the month supply of existing homes been that low. This created a very unhealthy situation in the existing Home Market. The inventory situation in the existing Home Market is still very tight, but it's now at the highest level since before the pandemic. The new construction Market is a completely different ball game, with a month supply at 9.3, super high and way above the balanced 6.0 level. There is way more detail to the situation in the

new construction market that we'll uncover in just a moment. If we look at the total US housing market situation, both existing and new construction, the aggregate month supply figure has increased to 4.5. So, yes, the total inventory situation is still very tight on a national level, but the level is rising and at the highest point since 2015. The monthly numbers are volatile, so let's look at a yearly average to make things more clear. This shows the month's supply for the total US housing market by year. 2024 is a partial year, and the current level as of May 2024 is also noted in the chart. As of May 2024, the total month supply situation is 4.5, which it hasn't been since 2015. You can also see the four years where the total month supply was below 4.0, which is extremely tight, and you can also see the 2021 situation at 2.6, which was crazy unhealthy. One major point is that this current 4.5 level is the

national average, but as we know, real estate is very regional. So, this means that there are some markets that are near a month supply of six and feeling downward price pressure, while some markets are still down at three and seeing prices rise with multiple offers. The new home market, with a month supply of 9.3, is way above the balance level of 6.0, and there are price cuts and discounts in that market. In June, the National Association of Home Builders reported that 29% of builders cut home prices, with an average price reduction of 6%, and 61% of builders use sales incentives like mortgage rate buy-downs to boost sales. But we need to talk about the new home market and the 9.3 month supply level in a bit more detail because there is more than what meets the eye in the new construction market. Currently, there are 479,000 units for sale in the new construction market and a current pace of sales of about 50,000 per month in the new home market, a home

could be listed for sale when it's completed, under construction, or not yet started. If we look at the percentage of inventory that is completed, we can see that of those 479,000 new home units for sale, only 20% are completed, which means 80% are either under construction or not yet started. The level of completed new home inventory for sale fell below 10% during the most acute part of the US housing shortage. Normally, in between 20% and 30% of new construction inventory is completed. During really bad downturns like 2008, builders were sitting on almost 50% completed inventory, which is what led to dramatic price cuts and big layoffs of construction crew. The level of completed inventory is now back into the normal range at 20%, and it's rising, which means that if we move towards 30%, price cuts will get more intense and construction crews will be at high risk of job losses. If we take the current 50,000 new home sales pace and divide that by the amount of

completed new home inventory for sale. We can see that there's currently about 1.9 months of completed inventory for sale, which is getting past the average level and into the range consistent with recessions and job losses for construction crews. If the home builders have a lot of completed new home inventory for sale, they aren't going to apply for new building permits and build even more homes. And that's exactly what we're starting to see. Building permits for new homes fell dramatically since the start of 2022, but then rebounded as home builders hoped for lower interest rates and more buyer demand. As interest rates remained elevated and buyer demand never rebounded, the amount of completed inventory builders have is rising and new building permits are declining again as a result. So the true inventory situation in the US housing market is still one of tight or low inventory on the surface, but it's changing quickly. Total month supply is up to 4.5, which is the highest level since 2015. And since real estate is regional, some markets are starting to

feel price pressures. The new Home Market is having a larger share of their active inventory completed, which means price cuts and discounts will get larger unless there's a huge pickup in buyer demand. They're also going to stop adding new building permits and potentially start laying off construction crews.

US Housing Inventory Crisis: Its Impact on Home Prices

EPB Research

미국 주택 시장은 지난 4년간 기록적인 재고 위기를 겪어왔지만 상황이 빠르게 변화하고 있습니다.

기존 주택 시장은 신규 주택 시장보다 판매량이 훨씬 많지만, 금리 인상으로 인해 둘 다 수요가 크게 감소했습니다.

팬데믹 기간 중 주택 붐이 절정에 달했을 때 기존 주택 시장의 판매 속도는 현재보다 훨씬 빨라 재고가 크게 감소한 것으로 나타났습니다.

미국 주택 시장의 매물 주택 수는 110만 채로 사상 최저치를 기록했지만 신규 건설 시장은 47만 9천 채로 사상 최고치를 기록했습니다.

수요와 공급을 모두 고려한 월 공급은 기존 주택의 경우 3.

3으로 기존 주택 시장은 매우 타이트하고 신규 주택은 공급 과잉을 나타냅니다.

기존 주택 시장은 2022년 1월 사상 최저치를 기록한 이후 재고가 크게 증가하여 다소 건전해졌지만 여전히 타이트한 상황입니다.

미국 주택 시장의 총 월 공급량은 2015년 이후 최고치인 4.

5개월로 증가하여 타이트한 재고 상황을 나타내고 있습니다.

일부 특정 지역 시장은 월 공급량이 6건에 육박하면서 가격 하락 압력을 받고 있는 반면, 다른 지역 시장은 공급량이 3건까지 낮아지면서 가격 상승세를 보이고 있습니다.

신규 주택 시장은 월 공급량이 9.

0건을 훨씬 상회하고 있어 건설업체의 가격 인하, 할인, 판매 인센티브 제공이 이어지고 있습니다.

미국 신규 주택 재고의 변화하는 환경

현재 미국의 완공된 신규 주택 판매 재고는 20%로, 강도 높은 가격 인하와 건설 인력의 잠재적 실직으로 인해 30%대에 근접하고 있습니다.

9개월의 판매용 완공 재고가 있는 미국 주택 시장은 경기 침체 및 건설 일자리 손실과 일치하는 범위로 이동하고 있습니다.

완공 재고의 증가는 건축업자들이 신규 건축 프로젝트를 시작할 가능성이 낮아짐에 따라 신규 건축 허가의 감소로 이어지고 있습니다.

시장 동향이 주택 건설에 미치는 영향

주택 시장이 가격 압박과 재고 증가에 직면하여 구매자의 수요 증가 없이 가격 인하와 할인이 확대되고 있습니다.

재고 증가로 인해 신규 건축 허가를 중단하고 건설 인력의 해고를 고려하는 결정이 임박했습니다.