미국 주택 시장: 지속적인 공급 부족과 경쟁 문제

### 주택 위기: 미국의 주택 부족 및 시장 통합 과제
* 🏠 미국은 현재 주택 재고가 정상 수준인 **6개월에 비해 3.8개월에 불과**할 정도로 심각한 주택 부족에 직면해 있습니다.
* 📉 건설업체들은 **2024년 7월까지 150만 가구 이상의 신규 주택을 완공**했지만, 이러한 노력에도 불구하고 **200만~2000만 가구로 추정되는 10년간의 주택 부족 문제**를 해결하지 못했습니다.
* 💵 2024년 6월에 새로 지은 일반적인 주택의 가격은 **약 41만 7천 달러**인 반면, 평균 가구 소득은 **약 7만 5천 달러**에 불과해 많은 사람이 주택을 소유하는 것이 점점 더 어려워지고 있습니다.
* 🌍 이주 추세를 보면 캘리포니아나 북동부와 같은 고가 지역에서 **텍사스나 플로리다와 같은 보다 저렴한 지역**으로 이동하는 소비자들이 늘어나고 있으며, **신규 주택 판매의 약 절반이 단 10개 도시에 집중**되어 있습니다.
* 🏗 ️ 주택 시장은 **상위 10개 건설사가 신규 주택 판매의 50% 이상**을 점유하는 등 소수의 대형 건설사가 지배하고 있어 경쟁이 줄어들고 주택 공급이 더디게 성장하고 있습니다.
* 📊 두 개의 가장 큰 주택 건설업체인 **D.R. 호튼과 레나르**는 인수를 통해 시장 점유율을 크게 높인 반면, 소규모 건설업체는 **높은 차입 비용과 제한된 자원**으로 인해 어려움을 겪고 있습니다.
* 🛠 ️ 현 정부는 **건축업자에 대한 세금 공제, 첫 주택 구매자에 대한 계약금 지원** 등 주택 공급을 늘리기 위한 다양한 방안을 제시하고 있지만, 이러한 조치의 효과는 아직 불확실합니다.
* ⚖ 궁극적으로 주택 부족 문제를 해결하려면 경쟁과 경제적 요인의 복잡한 환경 속에서 수요가 계속 증가함에 따라 **규제 변경과 허가 가용성 증가**를 포함한 포괄적인 접근 방식이 필요합니다.

미국의 주택 부족은 건설업체의 과소 건설과 경쟁 부족으로 인해 지속되고 있습니다.

The United States isn't building enough homes. The amount of inventory that we've seen increase has taken the level of existing home inventory to 3.8 months. Normal is six. Builders completed over 1.5 million new housing units in the 12-month period that ended in July 2024. That still wasn't enough to end a housing shortage that's a decade in the making. Not only were we under-building for a decade, but then you get to the pandemic and there's this massive rush on housing. That's making home prices rise fast in many parts of the country. So if you are waiting for that market to really dip, it's not going to happen. The reason for that is that we are so under-built. Both 2024 presidential candidates have ideas to fix the housing market, but neither stance seems to prioritize a key underlying issue. A lack of competition is also contributing to the low supply of housing. Can politicians do anything about the housing shortage?

and if so, why haven't they yet? For years, builders in the United States have made fewer homes than the US needs. There are various estimates for the scale of the shortage, which is estimated anywhere from 2 to 8 million. Some people put it at even 20 million housing units that we are short. The shortfall in new construction sent home prices trending higher over the past decade. The typical newly built home in the United States cost about $417,000 in June 2024, a slight decline from 2022 when home prices averaged around $430,000. But the typical household only brought in around $75,000 a year in 2022, the most recent year with data available. Purchasing a home in many major US cities would require over $130,000 in household income. Meanwhile, many people have depleted their savings following the pandemic. We're absolutely seeing a trend of consumers, home buyers moving from California to the southwest and

Texas; moving from the Northeast to Florida and Georgia because of a lower cost of living, less state tax, better weather. About half of the new home sales in the country are in ten cities, and that includes four cities in Texas. It's much faster to get zoning and entitlement improvement. And so as that happens, then you can move it through the cycle faster. Decisions from the Federal Reserve can affect the real estate cycle too. About 18 million households were priced out of home ownership between early 2022 and October 2022 as mortgage rates rose, according to the National Association of Home Builders. That economic tightening is slowing down the development of new housing too. In the housing sector, investment stalled in the second quarter after a strong rise in the first. There were fewer residential building permits issued and fewer housing projects started in 2024 than there were in 2023. The expectation, of course, is that the fed will lower their rates in September.

And while mortgage rates don't exactly follow the Fed, they are influenced by what the Fed does. So, a lot of summer potential buyers were waiting till fall to see if rates would come down even more. Some big builders have offered deals on mortgage rates to help homebuyers bridge the gap. For example, the homebuilder D.R. Horton offered some buyers in the Reno, Nevada area a temporary one-year, 3.5% interest rate in 2023 before it rises to market rates over time. Most of the big builders have their own mortgage company. It's called a captive mortgage business. They can buy down the mortgage rate. That is an advantage big builders have that private, smaller builders do not have. There were over 400,000 businesses building homes in the United States in 2023. The industry remains fragmented, but the biggest firms have advantages that are helping them increase their control of numerous local housing markets. Just ten builders are behind more than half of the new homes in 49 of 50 metro regions in the United

States. We're seeing cities like Tampa as an example where today the top ten builders have more than 80% market share. That just makes it very hard for any new builder to get a foothold. If you look at relevant markets well-defined for housing, then you see that in many places it took the two firms that were merging from having 30% each to having 70 or 80 or 90% of the housing market. What's really critical here is the definition of a housing market. No matter how many developers you have building in San Francisco, if you live in the suburbs of D.C. in Virginia, those developers in San Francisco do not constitute a competitive threat to your market. The largest 100 home builders in the United States were behind about half of new single-family home sales in 2023, according to researchers at Johns Hopkins. The top ten builders combined had 10% market share. Today, only three decades later, the top ten have 50% market share and

Horton, the biggest, has 15% market share, so the concentration has been accelerating. My team estimates that about two-thirds, 70% of the unit growth that the big builders are delivering, is from acquisitions. The two biggest home builders in the United States are D.R. Horton and Lennar. Both have outperformed the S&P 500 between August 2014 and August 2024. Their business is really going gangbusters, and if you look at the stocks, they're way up because they were able to grab such market share. A lot of the small to midsize builders just simply couldn't make the math work. Their borrowing costs were so high that a lot of them either went out of business or agreed to be purchased by the larger builders. At the end of its 2023 fiscal year, D.R. Horton closed about 83,000 homes at an average price of about $382,000.

D.R. Horton did not respond to CNBC's request for a comment. Lennar ended its 2023 fiscal year with about 73,000 homes delivered at an average price of $446,000. Lennar didn't provide CNBC with a comment on this story in time for publication. Both have acquired competing firms in the years after the Great Recession. For example, Lennar's 2017 takeover of WCI communities. Lennar paid $643 million for the company, approximately a 37% share price premium. The transaction combined two of the largest homebuilders in Florida. This whole structural change in competition came from a very difficult situation that started in the Great Recession. If you have a great crisis. Who are the players that can withstand the crisis and actually survive? Are those that are bigger, that have more access to capital? But not only that, a lot of them were receiving a massive liquidity boost from stimulus.

packages in the early 2010s. The 13 largest home builders received around $2.4 billion. They could use these resources in any way they wanted. In the intervening years, D.R. Horton, Pulte Group, and other big builders struck mega-deals too. Experts believe that the industry became less productive as its lead companies consolidated. The average builder, when I started in the early 90s, would tell the consumer that they would deliver the house in 40 or 50 days. Over the course of my career, in the last 30 years, that went from weeks to months. So it's incredibly unusual that you have an industry where you have negative productivity, essentially where it's getting longer versus shorter. To be honest, it's not like the house is super more efficient or more tech-friendly than it would have been before. They're also able to bring down their own costs because they've simplified the models of the home.

There are far fewer actual floor plans and models that you can choose from. There would be 10% more housing built if we had the levels of competition of 2006. Are they getting large because they want to, you know, maximize profits? Well, all firms want to maximize profits. It's something that we expect, and that's why we have antitrust regulation and regulators. And that is where maybe the regulators should have been a little more strict. President Biden made competition a focal point during his time in office. His lead regulators, Lina Khan at the Federal Trade Commission and Jonathan Kanter at the Department of Justice, have taken a sharper stance on business mergers. Observers on Wall Street believe that a Harris administration could take a different approach to antitrust policy. They feel confident at some level that she's going to maybe have a lighter touch on regulation. The policies from the federal government, especially that are aimed at increasing housing supply,

should also look at competition. On the campaign trail, Vice President Kamala Harris has called for subsidies to help builders construct 3 million new homes. If approved, the tax credit would go to builders who sell starter homes to first-time home buyers. Harris has also called for $25,000 in down payment assistance for some first-time home buyers and rent caps on corporate landlords. We will take on corporate landlords and cap unfair rent increases. The Biden-Harris administration has also awarded transportation grants to communities that allow more dense housing construction, and they've asked Congress to provide a one-year, $10,000 tax credit for homeowners who sell starter homes to other owner-occupants. That could increase the number of preexisting homes on the market, but also risks increasing demand for housing. The Republican Party wants to address housing affordability too. Its 2024 platform says the party will reduce mortgage rates by slashing inflation, open some federal

land for home construction, and also provide tax incentives for first-time home buyers. In his campaign, former President Trump has criticized both Biden and Harris for the inflation that occurred during their administration. Republicans have a plan to bring down prices and bring them down very, very rapidly. His Agenda 47 platform claims that a Democratic administration would abolish zoning for single-family homes, allowing the building of apartments in suburbs and destroying property values in the process. The alternative to all of this is, well, if you don't allow this to happen, the neighborhoods are going to change regardless, and the neighborhoods are going to be changing because now a developer comes in, purchases an old single-family detached home, and they put in place a McMansion. That really changes the character of the neighborhood as well. No matter who controls the White House, the president will need to rely on the other wings of government to address the housing shortage. There's no reason to think that housing supply is going to change that much.

Ultimately, it's a function of the number of permits that are made available to the builders. The demand is going to keep increasing. It's going to take time to really resolve that shortage that we have built up for decades. If the laws are complex and the land is not made available, they don't come out and build.

Why The U.S. Can’t Build Homes Fast Enough

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미국의 지속적인 주택 부족 문제

미국은 기존 주택 재고가 정상 6개월보다 낮은 3.

8개월에 불과할 정도로 심각한 주택 부족 현상을 겪고 있습니다.

건설업체들이 2024년 7월까지 150만 채 이상의 신규 주택을 완공할 예정이지만, 200만 채에서 2000만 채로 추정되는 주택 부족 문제는 10년 넘게 지속되고 있습니다.

주택 가격 상승과 이주 패턴이 문제를 더욱 악화시키고 있으며, 연방준비제도의 결정과 경제 긴축으로 인해 신규 주택 개발이 둔화되고 있습니다.

모기지 금리와 대형 건설업체가 주택 시장에 미치는 영향

모기지 금리는 연방준비제도의 영향을 받기 때문에 잠재적 구매자는 금리가 낮아질 때까지 기다리게 됩니다.

Horton과 같은 대형 건설업체는 모기지 금리 할인 혜택을 제공하고 전속 모기지 사업을 운영하고 있어 소규모 건설업체보다 유리한 위치를 점하고 있습니다.

미국의 상위 100대 주택 건설업체는 2023년 신규 단독주택 판매의 절반을 담당하며, 상위 10개 건설업체는 인수를 통해 시장 점유율을 빠르게 높이고 있습니다.

대침체가 주택 건설업체에 미치는 영향

디알 호튼과 레나 모두 대침체 이후 인수를 통해 성장했으며, 레나는 2023년에 73,000채의 주택을 공급할 예정입니다.

대형 주택 건설업체들은 경기 부양책으로 24억 달러의 유동성을 지원받아 업계 통합으로 이어졌습니다.

전문가들은 이러한 통합으로 인해 주택 배송 시간이 몇 주에서 몇 달로 늘어나는 등 생산성이 저하된 것으로 보고 있습니다.

현재 주택 시장은 평면도와 모델 수가 적어 경쟁이 2006년 수준과 같으면 건설이 10% 증가할 수 있습니다.

바이든 대통령은 더 엄격한 반독점 규제와 주택 공급 확대에 초점을 맞추고 있으며, 해리스 부통령은 첫 주택 구매자를 위한 보조금과 계약금 지원을 제안하고 있습니다.

공화당은 또한 모기지 이자율을 낮추고 개발을 위해 연방 토지를 개방하여 주택 경제성 문제를 해결하고자 합니다.

트럼프 전 대통령은 인플레이션에 대해 바이든 행정부를 비판하고 첫 주택 구매자를 위한 세금 인센티브와 건설용 토지 확대를 제안했습니다.

그의 어젠다 47 플랫폼은 단독주택 용도지역 폐지가 부동산 가치에 해를 끼치고 지역 역학 관계를 변화시킬 것이라고 주장합니다.

주택 부족 문제는 정부의 조율된 노력과 증가하는 수요를 충족하기 위한 건축 허가의 대폭적인 증가가 필요한 복잡한 문제입니다.