삼성전자와 조선업에 투자하기: 전문가 인사이트

트럼프와 관련된 정치 환경으로 인해 주식 시장이 변화하면서 시장 성과에 영향을 미치고 투기성에서 실적 중심 국면으로 전환되고 있습니다.

### 조진표의 시장 인사이트 및 투자 추천
* 📉 현재 주식 시장은 정치적 불확실성이 증가하면서 **투기적 국면에서 실적 중심 국면**으로 전환하고 있습니다.
* 🏦 이달 말 FOMC 회의에서 **금리 인하가 이루어질 것**으로 예상되며, 이는 시장 역학 관계의 변화를 예고하는 신호가 될 수 있습니다.
* 🏢 특히 삼성전자 등 반도체 업종이 유망 투자처로 부각되고 있으며, **삼성은 9만 원을 넘어 10만 원까지 도달**할 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.
* 🔋 테슬라의 **4680 배터리 문제와 미국-칠레 리튬 계약** 등 주가 상승의 잠재적 트리거에 초점을 맞춰 2차 전지 부문에 대해 논의합니다.
* 🚢 조선업은 **삼성중공업과 같은 기업이 꾸준한 실적**을 보이고 있어 안정적인 투자처로 인식되고 있습니다.
* 🇺🇸 트럼프의 정책이 **전기차와 반도체 등 다양한 산업에 미칠 잠재적 영향**에 대해 논의합니다.
* 💡 조진표 대표는 현재 시장 환경에서 **수익 잠재력이 높은 업종에 집중**하는 것이 중요하다고 강조합니다.
* 🎯 그는 시청자들에게 성공적인 투자 성과를 위해 **부자들의 공부방, 경제 원탑**과 같은 채널에서 계속해서 가치 있는 정보를 찾아보라고 격려하며 글을 마무리합니다.

Now, rather than focusing on inflation, I think the economy may have a red light flashing. Even if the semiconductor sector is shaken, there is certainly a way forward. I believe this is the point where we should buy Samsung Electronics. I think it will definitely exceed 90,000 won. To surpass 100,000 won, a trigger will be needed. When considering Trump's position on the issue of hegemony, I think the perspective could change. I don't believe Trump will let that slide. We don't need to be overly concerned about the reflexive impact from China. This is a chance to increase our holdings. We have Mr. Jo Jin-pyo, the representative of the Wealthy Study Group, with us today. Hello! Yes, hello! Nice to meet you. I am Jo Jin-pyo, who gives lectures every day in the study room for the wealthy.

I am very honored to be here today. We are truly grateful to have you with us. As you know, you are a well-established expert, and the market has been quite turbulent lately. In this situation, I would like to ask you about noteworthy investments and how you view the market. First of all, with Biden stepping down as a candidate for re-election, the possibility of Trump being elected has increased. As a result, the stock markets in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan have all plummeted significantly, creating a rather chaotic situation. How do you forecast the stock market moving forward?

Recently, the stock market has shifted in response to the political landscape involving Trump. This has led to a change in dynamics. How has this change affected market performance?

I think the timing is just right now. The stocks related to Trump have fluctuated quite a bit over time, and in contrast, the stocks related to the Democratic Party and Harris have also seen significant fluctuations. I believe we are currently in a transitional phase where the stock market is shifting from a speculative to an earnings-driven phase. As a result, political uncertainties have increased. In terms of earnings, stocks like M7 have been performing well and are expected to continue doing so. If the earnings for these M7 stocks come out strong, the current market could develop into a very favorable one. I think these developing markets may soon enter a phase of stability. In particular, over the past two weeks, among the M7 stocks, the leading ones have...

Recently, stocks like Nvidia have dropped by over 10%, and SK Hynix has also seen a decline of more than 10%. There has been ongoing uncertainty in the market. However, as corporate performance changes, it seems likely that the market could transition to a performance-driven phase, which may significantly increase the chances of an improvement in the stock market. 

Secondly, the FOMC meeting is scheduled for the end of this month. There have been some expectations for a rate cut in September, and discussions about this have been ongoing since the second quarter of this year. Recently, there have been suggestions that interest rates might be cut two times this year. In this context, the CMB Fed Watch indicates that the possibility of a rate cut in September is over 90%, so the impact on the stock market is expected to be quite significant.

It seems that the stock market will be one that makes judgments. So, as you mentioned, interest rates could indeed be a concern, as a rate cut could act as a negative factor. In other words, the very act of lowering interest rates might indicate a possibility of economic recession. I believe this is a perspective worth considering. How do you view this?

Yes, that's right. Recently, in June, economic indicators such as the PMI and CPI were below market expectations. Ironically, despite these economic indicators being lower than expected, the stock market did not show significant improvement. However, as a result, the dollar has decreased, and government bond yields have also been trending downward. This suggests that inflation is no longer closely correlated with stock prices.

I think it might be possible, and regarding the CPI scheduled to be announced this August, if we look at the nowcasting, the headline CPI and the core CPI are expected to be about 0.1% lower than the previously anticipated figures. Despite this, there are still aspects where the stock market has not been reacting very sensitively to the perceived inflation. I believe we have reached a point where we need to look further ahead regarding the Federal Reserve's target of 2% inflation. You also mentioned interest rate cuts; the market seems to be taking it as a given that there will be two interest rate cuts this year. On another note, some believe that there could be two or even three cuts, and there are also opinions suggesting that the FOMC might take action in the first half of next year.

There are discussions about whether interest rate cuts will continue every time they come up. If that happens, it seems that rather than inflation, there might be a red light signaling a downturn in the economy. This could lead the Federal Reserve to take action to stabilize the market since the economy is showing signs of distress. Therefore, I believe that the stock market may shift from being sensitive to inflation to being more responsive to interest rates in the future. When we asked the question about when it might be a good opportunity to buy at a lower price, we noticed that the stock market experienced a significant drop today. So, could this be a chance to buy at a lower price? How do you see it? Yes, there certainly are opportunities to buy at a lower price.

The opportunities available are indeed chances to buy at lower prices, but in my view, we are currently in a transitional phase. In terms of leading industries, if we look at the major sectors in the domestic market, we see that semiconductor, cosmetics, shipbuilding, and biotechnology sectors have been significant. However, recently, the IT and semiconductor sectors have experienced a significant decline in stock prices over the past two weeks. Notably, companies like Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Hanmi Semiconductor have seen drops of around 10% to 20%, with Hanmi Semiconductor dropping over 26%. This suggests that there may be issues within the leading industries. Therefore, it would be worthwhile to examine NVIDIA, as they provided guidance on their performance.

In the first quarter, we announced our performance, and for the second quarter, we are continuing to provide high guidance. Even though the semiconductor sector in the upstream industry may be shaken, I want to emphasize that the growth in business is evident. Furthermore, when it comes to Samsung Electronics, which is part of SK Hynix, there were concerns about whether the performance would be poor. However, if we take a closer look at the results, Samsung Electronics is expected to achieve an operating profit of over 10 trillion won, whereas it was initially projected to be around 8.5 trillion won. This is a significant surprise. The entire industry is performing well and generating substantial profits, and there is a strong possibility that this trend will continue. Particularly in the third and fourth quarters, there is potential for an upward cycle in operating profits. Therefore, in the semiconductor sector, specifically regarding Samsung Electronics, we are currently looking at around 80,000 won.

Samsung Electronics has recently ended at around 80,000 won or a few hundred won. Considering this, I think now is a good point to buy Samsung Electronics. If we look at past examples, there are cycles in the semiconductor industry, typically around a four-year cycle that you may have heard about. The semiconductor market has indeed been progressing in this four-year cycle, and there were periods of an upcycle around 2016 and 2018. During that time, Samsung Electronics rose about 160% from its low to high, while SK Hynix saw an increase of around 250%. Recently, the semiconductor upcycle has started, improving since the third quarter of last year, and in the first and second quarters, both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have been showing an upward trend.

Since last year, how much has Samsung Electronics risen? It has only increased by about 55%. On the other hand, SK Hynix has risen by about 180%. In that sense, while SK Hynix has risen significantly, I believe that Samsung Electronics has much more attractive points. Recently, the market has been somewhat unfavorable, and there have been supply noise issues with HBM. Foreign media reported that it has passed, but Samsung Electronics has again expressed concerns, leading to a situation where the market is not doing well. As a result, Samsung's stock fell to the high 80,000s and has now dropped to just above 80,000. However, this does not indicate a downward trend; rather, since the performance is gradually improving, it can be seen as an opportunity. Yes, I think now is indeed an opportunity, especially for Samsung Electronics.

Now, in the case of Samsung Electronics, there are discussions about the passing of the call tests related to NVIDIA, which will come up in the next question as well. The market's expectations were that the fifth generation would pass, but Samsung Electronics has successfully passed the fourth generation HBM3, which will be delivered in August. According to reports from Reuters, there are some important points to note. 

One key point is that instead of being used in high-performance GPUs, Samsung's HBM3 fourth generation is likely to be installed in products that are being delivered to China, specifically the H20, which is a lower-performance product. This means that while the market was expecting the fifth generation HBM32, with configurations of eight or twelve layers, to pass, it was actually the HBM3 fourth generation that has passed. Therefore, there seems to be a discrepancy between the expectations and what has actually been achieved.

If you are wondering when Samsung will pass the 5th generation, I think that for Samsung's 5th generation HBM3 8-layer and 12-layer, it will likely be around November this year at the earliest for the 8-layer to pass. Once the 8-layer passes, I believe the 12-layer will follow. So, the 5th generation is expected to pass around November this year. Currently, Samsung Electronics is priced at 80,000 won, but reports from securities firms indicate target prices of 110,000 won and 120,000 won. In order to reach those target prices, at least the 5th generation must pass to create a trigger for a potential surge. That's how I see it. Do I think Samsung Electronics will exceed 100,000 won this year? I definitely believe it will surpass 90,000 won, but to exceed 100,000 won, it will require...

I believe we need a trigger, and I think the trigger is the fifth-generation Coltes. Additionally, once Trump becomes president, he has stated that he will immediately abolish the mandatory introduction of electric vehicles. This announcement has caused fluctuations in the secondary battery stocks. How do you assess this issue? The situation for secondary batteries is already poor, and with the emergence of the Trump risk, they have dropped again. What are your thoughts? Trump has said he would abolish the mandatory introduction of electric vehicles, but in reality, there are no laws that mandate electric vehicles or abolish internal combustion engine cars. What he means is that he intends to regulate the fuel efficiency of electric vehicles and to ease regulations, rather than abolishing electric vehicles altogether.

I don't think that's the case. In my opinion, if fuel economy regulations are implemented, it will require a significant amount of production related to electric vehicles. From Trump's perspective, he seems to believe that consumers should have the choice between electric vehicles and internal combustion engine vehicles. Therefore, if we interpret his statements as an attempt to control this through fuel economy regulations, that would make sense. 

Additionally, there was a recent instance where the Biden administration lowered the mandatory ratio for new cars in terms of fuel economy regulations. They reduced the requirement for new cars to 66% by 2032, which is a decrease from the previous 50%. This move to control such regulations is also indicative of the Democratic stance, particularly with figures like Harris, who are seen as less favorable towards Trump. However, when it comes to electric vehicles, there is a more favorable stance or at least a nuanced position.

If we consider this issue from the perspective of a power struggle rather than an unfriendly stance, I believe the viewpoint could change. In terms of a power struggle, it certainly involves tightening control over China. If we assume Trump is elected, and he becomes the President of the United States, we can recall that during his term from 2016 to 2020, he significantly restrained and controlled China. This also led to a semiconductor crisis. If Trump were to be elected again, I believe he would not allow China to advance in the secondary battery sector, which is a key strategic industry, along with semiconductors and batteries.

In that case, it is natural that South Korea will inevitably benefit. So, rather than looking at it from a short-term perspective, I would like to view it from a broader, long-term viewpoint. It seems that South Korea's electric vehicle battery industry is promising and could receive indirect benefits from China. The statement about abolishing this obligation has been made, but there is no formal legislation specifying it yet. Additionally, I noticed that Trump recently said, I love electric cars, so there is no need to be overly concerned about this. That's right. Moreover, there are discussions about accepting Elon Musk as a policy advisor, which is also noteworthy. Trump has mentioned that he receives $26 billion from Musk every month, calling him a very good and smart friend. Having such a good and smart friend by my side is advantageous.

I am proud to say that I recently had a conversation about this. So, as the representative mentioned, there is no need to make daily comments. I agree with that regarding secondary batteries. In any case, shareholders and investors looking at these secondary batteries might feel a bit down due to the significant decline. How should we respond to this? Now, I would like to show you a table regarding how to respond to secondary batteries. This table, which you are currently looking at, was recently distributed by the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry. It shows the results of an industrial climate survey conducted for the second half of this year. It indicates that the semiconductor sector is in very good condition, while the automotive, shipbuilding, secondary battery, bio, and machinery sectors are generally expressed as being good. However, there is one notable change compared to the same report released by the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry in the first half of this year.

What it is, is that when the secondary batteries were announced in January this year, they were seen as very bleak and difficult. However, the perception has shifted to a more positive outlook for secondary batteries, as announced by the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Not only for secondary batteries, but personally, I believe that there were investors in semiconductors who were aware of the semiconductor cycle. There are cyclical patterns, and some investors might have invested when the semiconductor market was in a down cycle. This is because, with semiconductors, there is a belief that once the cycle turns, it can rise again. Those who invested in semiconductors reacted to certain phenomena or events that were occurring. Suddenly, not only in South Korea but across the globe, there is a surge in interest in AI. This AI boom...

Could those who were investing in semiconductors foresee this? They said it was completely unexpected, right? You agree with that, don't you? The emergence of companies like Hae Sung is indeed significant. In fact, I believe that those who invested in semiconductors beforehand are now reaping the benefits from the AI industry due to this. It seems that the same applies to the secondary battery sector. Currently, the market is stagnant, and it shows a frustrating trend. There is certainly a sense of frustration in the market. However, if we look at the large corporations that are investing tens of trillions of won every year, we have to wonder if those people are making foolish investments. I don't think so. South Korea is the best at producing semiconductors and batteries. However, in the case of electric vehicles, both of these sectors need to perform well in order to succeed.

I believe that we are at a stage where we can produce finished products. In terms of battery and semiconductor production, there is no other country in the world that can match South Korea. Therefore, I would like to emphasize that we have no choice but to move towards secondary batteries and electric vehicles. 

Now, how should we respond to the current situation with secondary batteries? It seems that we are indeed in a bottom zone for secondary batteries. As for when the bottom price will be, that is something even experts cannot predict. However, it is true that we are near the bottom zone. Therefore, for those who currently hold secondary batteries, I can explain that we have entered a short-term trading area. Being in a short-term trading area means that once the price rises to a certain level, we can either reduce our holdings or engage in staged trading to lower our average cost or increase our quantity. This is definitely a viable strategy in the current situation.

Those who are struggling to make decisions should consider this as an opportunity to increase their involvement. I would like to explain it that way. Recently, there is a growing possibility that Tesla may halt its production of the 4680 battery. I’ve heard that they will try until the end of the year, and if it doesn't work out, they might abandon it. This news has led to speculation that it could be a positive factor for K-batteries. What do you think? 

When discussing Tesla, it's important to note that Musk has warned the internal battery team that if they can't lower production costs like LG Energy Solution, they will be dismantled. This is a valid concern. Recently, Reuters reported that Tesla is facing challenges because the 4680 battery requires a dry manufacturing process, but they are struggling with efficiency, which has put them in a difficult position.

The efficiency has come out to be less than about 20%, which is why the yield is only that much. If that's the case, it cannot be used. Therefore, if you don't produce better results than LG Energy Solution, everything will be dismantled and eliminated. This is the situation. However, according to Reuters, Tesla was planning to produce about 2,400 units of the Cybertruck per month, which requires the 4680 battery to be installed. But since the yield is not stabilized, it cannot be installed. We need to take a closer look at the dry process or wet process. Why is the wet process considered important? The wet process involves applying a coating solution to the battery, where the copper foil is coated with aluminum. It is coated and then dried, but in the dry process...

That's right, instead of that, we spray this coating liquid and apply it. The difference between these two processes is that the dry process consumes only 30% of the resources compared to the wet process, including power consumption, and manufacturing costs are also reduced by 30%. That's why we want to use the dry process. However, Tesla has not yet achieved efficiency with the 4680 battery, so they are unable to use the dry process. Recently, the wet process has become standardized, so for battery cathodes, we can just use it. But the dry process is very challenging; the entry barriers are high. In this situation, recently, LG Energy Solution announced that they completed the dry process in July and will build a factory by the end of this year to start mass production in 2028. From Tesla's perspective, this means that LG Energy Solution has successfully implemented the dry process.

This situation inevitably leads to a need for improvement. Currently, LG Energy Solution is supplying Tesla with 4680 batteries. However, while the anode material for Tesla's 4680 battery is produced using a dry process, the cathode material is not efficient enough, so a wet process is being used instead. This has caused LG Energy Solution to lag behind a bit. I believe Musk may have communicated more strongly to his internal team about this issue. I don't think the battery team will be disbanded, but given that LG Energy Solution is making progress with the 4680 battery, it’s likely that Tesla felt a sense of urgency to address this. As a result, I believe the 4680 battery could potentially become the next generation game changer in the battery sector, and LG Energy Solution is at the forefront of this advancement.

Because there is clearly an SDI, I believe that if issues regarding batteries continue to emerge one by one, it could be a sufficient trigger for a rise. If our country's K-battery is indeed selected for the 4680, there is definitely a technological advantage that could come into play. As I mentioned, the entry barriers for dry and wet processes are quite high, especially for dry processes, where LG Energy is significantly ahead. If they can save a lot in terms of energy efficiency and productivity, they have no choice but to adopt it. Naturally, they are in a position where they must use dry processes, which is why I believe that the leading companies in South Korea are truly the best. I hope that these factors will be reflected in the stock prices as well, as they are currently not being reflected.

It's a bit disappointing that things are unfolding this way. And there’s another issue; recently, there was an article stating that lithium from Chile would be eligible for the U.S. IRA subsidies. So, it seems that there’s some positive interpretation for LG Energy Solution and Posco Holdings regarding this. How do you see it? Well, there’s one thing that the U.S. and Chile have tentatively agreed upon. What it involves is that lithium produced in Chile will be used in cathodes, and those vehicles equipped with these cathodes will be eligible for IRA benefits. This means that the incentives provided for cathodes made in the U.S. will also apply to lithium produced in Chile. This is a significant development. In fact, both LG Energy Solution and Posco Holdings have expressed their willingness to participate in lithium-related projects in Chile.

Recently, it has been revealed that in the case of Chile, the lithium reserves are ranked first in the world, as far as I know. Yes, it is the number one in global reserves. As for production, it ranks around second or third, producing only a small amount. The idea of receiving tax benefits through this is likely to be a very good initiative. Currently, there are only two private companies involved in the production or processing and distribution of lithium: Albemarle and a company called SQM. The important point is that SQM supplies lithium to LG Energy Solution, which is why this is significant. Additionally, POSCO Holdings has recently made investments in lithium projects.

Through the lithium extracted from the lithium mines of Posco Holdings, we expect to generate approximately 500 billion won in revenue for the first time by the end of this year. If the tax benefits related to the IRA (Inflation Reduction Act) are also applicable through LG and Posco Holdings for secondary batteries, I believe this could be seen as a positive signal for the battery sector. Currently, the secondary battery stocks are at a very low point, so even with good news, they are not moving much. This is likely because we need to overcome the gaps in the electric vehicle market. If we see significant revenue numbers, it could lead to a shift in the perception of secondary batteries.

If the perception of the company has been somewhat strong as a steel company, this could be a moment that might change that. That's right. By the end of this year, for Pos Holdings, we are really expecting our first revenue from lithium, which is projected to be between 350 billion and 500 billion won. If that happens, the perception will change once the numbers are in, as we have only been speculating until now. Additionally, the short selling is still concentrated in the secondary battery sector. So, when do you think the influx of short covering will begin? Well, if we talk about short covering, from the companies' perspective, they need to announce some strong measures to really surprise the market and trigger short covering. That's my judgment. For example,

Two years ago, EcoPro made a stock dividend in kind. If that happens again, it would certainly be surprising, and if EcoPro announces that it will provide a stock dividend, it could trigger a rush of investors, leading to a rise in stock prices. However, the current market conditions and profitability do not support such actions. I mentioned this as a single observation. If, for instance, there is a move to cover in the electricity sector, it is obvious that there needs to be an improvement in the business environment and profitability. Yet, we are not currently in a phase where the profitability of the industry has noticeably increased or improved. Therefore, I personally think that we should assess the situation based on the index related to secondary batteries.

I think about it this way. Let me show you the battery secondary index. The screen you are currently looking at is an index that gathers 10 companies in the secondary battery sector. The current index is also positioned near the bottom range, and I believe this is where short covering will come in. The black solid line represents the one-year moving average, which I have set to 24 days. If we extend the one-year line, it will look like this. In this index chart, if we see a rise from below and reach the point where it meets the one-year line, or if it breaks through that line, I think that is when short covering will occur. Conversely, last July, the stock price of this sector was very high. During that period, short selling was not concentrated, and the short selling period has usually passed.

Around October, which means about three months have passed since short selling was in full swing. So, now it is certainly the case that we are at the bottom level, but for the performance of stocks or improvements in the industry to be visible, as shown in the chart, it seems that the performance will improve from the one-year mark. I think we might see short covering starting from that point. However, it seems we still need some time. Anyway, the Trump risk has suddenly increased, and as a result, stock prices have dropped further. Nevertheless, there are many discussions about whether the secondary battery sector is currently going through a recovery. In this situation, what secondary battery stocks will survive? Previously, it was more individual, with some stocks recovering while others do not.

Rather than focusing on that, let me explain a bit about Lee Seon-jae's overall aspects. First of all, among the secondary battery stocks this year, there was a noticeable rise in the stock prices of CAM, which performed exceptionally well. However, CAM's success was not shared by all secondary battery stocks; not all of them rose together. I believe that the Trump risk is something we need to accept now, and I think we have reached a point where we need to consider this. The previous risks were mainly related to the chasm theory, which accounts for only 10%. In contrast, in regions like China and Europe, the penetration rate for electric vehicles has exceeded 30%. Therefore, the acceptance of the chasm varies by region and country. If we consider the chasm as one of the risks, the second risk is...

Isn't it Trump? If that's the case, then Trump is actually more aligned with Harris in terms of environmental issues. However, since Trump is not environmentally friendly, the risks associated with secondary batteries could increase. If we are in a situation where we have to accept Trump, let's assume he is not just a candidate but has become president. If we assume Trump has become president, one of the most significant risks in the stock market is uncertainty. Uncertainty is very detrimental to stocks, right? Because of this uncertainty, stock prices can be highly volatile. So, if we assume that Trump, who is not currently in office, has been elected and has become the President of the United States, then it would be reasonable to think that he would impose more regulations and incentives as well.

I believe we need to significantly reduce both regulations and incentives. If we consider that the electric vehicle (EV) sector has been made somewhat stringent, then we should think about what aspects EVs need to improve. I think it is now time for electric vehicles to develop their competitiveness and self-sustainability. To achieve self-sustainability, certain advantages are necessary. For electric vehicles, these advantages include autonomous driving capabilities, lower maintenance costs, and significantly reduced battery prices. Recently, many mid-range electric vehicles have been introduced at around 30 million won, and they are performing very well in terms of range. Given these competitive factors, I believe we are at a point where electric vehicles can become self-sustaining.

I believe it might have been the case that, of course, if incentives such as subsidies for electric vehicles are provided, it can accelerate the process even further. In Germany, for instance, when they reduced electric vehicle incentives last year, we saw a rapid slowdown in electric vehicle sales. This data confirms that observation. 

Now, if we assume that Trump has been elected, or at least acknowledged as the elected president, electric vehicles have their own competitiveness and are currently in a phase where they can foster self-sustainability. I would like to think we are in such a phase right now. The die has been cast with Trump. I believe that the time to overcome adversity is now.

You've mentioned many good investment ideas. Are there any other noteworthy investment ideas or stocks to consider at this time?

Currently, in the market, there has been a political risk known as the Trump risk, but I mentioned that we are now transitioning to an earnings-driven market. When moving to an earnings-driven market, I believe that if you choose sectors that are reflected in the actual numbers, you can make successful investments. The sectors that are unlikely to fail in investment seem to be related to shipbuilding. I think the shipbuilding sector will be one of those sectors where investment is unlikely to fail. Just looking at this year, companies like HD Korea Shipbuilding have recorded their highest prices in 52 weeks. Additionally, Samsung Heavy Industries has seen an increase of about 40% this year alone. When we look at the performance of the shipbuilding sector, the company showing the most stable results and consistently rising stock prices is Samsung Heavy Industries, which continues to achieve good performance based on solid results.

I think we are experiencing a significant upward trend. I believe this cycle will continue not only this year but also into next year, and as a result, performance will keep improving. The reason for this judgment is that the current cycle in shipbuilding has improved not because of an increase in new orders, but because aging vessels are being decommissioned. The need to replace these old ships with new ones is what is driving the current activity in shipbuilding. Due to this cycle, the shipbuilding industry continues to thrive. Furthermore, if we consider the replacement cycle of aging vessels along with the raw materials super cycle, it seems that this cycle will persist without interruption into next year. So, where does the shipbuilding sector currently stand?

When considering the current position of the shipbuilding cycle, it's like saying that in soccer, the first half is over and halftime has ended. We are now at the beginning of the second half. I believe that we are entering a phase of shipbuilding. Therefore, I would like to emphasize that those involved in the shipbuilding sector need to focus on this. Even during market corrections, shipbuilding has been resilient and has even risen. That's right, the shipbuilding industry continues to show positive indicators and maintains an upward trend. Unlike other sectors such as semiconductors or biotech, which have experienced significant fluctuations and corrections, the shipbuilding sector has consistently followed an upward trajectory. I think it will continue to do so in the second half of the year as well. Thank you for the insightful comments today.

You have provided valuable insights, and I would like to ask you to share a final message for the investors. Throughout this time, I have greatly admired various channels, and I have learned a lot from them. It is a tremendous honor for me to appear on this broadcast. I hope that this appearance can provide some help to those of you watching. I sincerely wish that you all achieve good results in your stock investments, and I want to convey that.

As you know, channels like Wealthy People's Study Room and Economic One-Top provide essential information for investors. I encourage you to visit them, as I believe that even in these challenging market conditions, you will surely see positive results. Thank you to CEO Cho Jin-pyo for joining us today. Thank you.

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변화하는 주식 시장 역학 관계와 금리 인하의 잠재적 영향

주식 시장은 투기성에서 실적 중심으로 전환되고 있으며, 특히 M7 주식의 경우 더욱 우호적인 장세가 이어질 수 있습니다.

다가오는 9월 FOMC 회의에서 금리 인하 가능성이 90% 이상으로 예상되는 가운데 경기 침체를 의미하는 금리 인하가 큰 영향을 미칠 것으로 예상됩니다.

경제 지표 하락과 예상 인플레이션에도 불구하고 주식 시장은 크게 반응하지 않고 있어 연방준비제도의 인플레이션 목표에 대한 추가 검토가 필요합니다.

변화하는 주식 시장과 삼성전자의 잠재력

- 주식 시장은 최근 주가가 크게 하락하면서 인플레이션에 민감하게 반응하던 것에서 금리에 더 민감하게 반응하는 시장으로 전환될 수 있습니다.

- 삼성전자와 SK하이닉스 등 반도체 업종은 주가가 눈에 띄게 하락해 저가 매수할 수 있는 좋은 기회입니다.

- 시장의 우려에도 불구하고 삼성전자는 성장 가능성을 보이고 있고, 특히 반도체 산업에서 좋은 실적이 기대되고 있어 좋은 투자 기회가 될 것으로 보입니다.

삼성의 5세대 HBM3와 정치 정책의 영향

삼성의 5세대 HBM3가 11월경에 출시될 것으로 예상되면서 주가가 상승할 가능성이 있습니다.

트럼프의 전기차 의무 도입 폐지 정책으로 2차 전지 주가가 변동했지만, 전면 폐지는 어려울 것으로 보이며 대신 연비 규제에 초점을 맞출 가능성이 높습니다.

민주당과 트럼프 행정부 간의 권력 투쟁과 중국에 대한 잠재적 영향력은 장기적으로 한국의 전기차 배터리 산업에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

2차 전지 산업에 대한 인식 변화

대한상공회의소의 산업기상도 조사에 따르면 2차 전지 산업에 대한 전망이 긍정적으로 바뀌고 있습니다.

반도체 투자자들은 현재 AI 산업 호황의 수혜를 받고 있으며, 테슬라의 4680 배터리 문제가 한국산 배터리에 긍정적인 영향을 미칠 가능성이 커지고 있습니다.

테슬라의 배터리 생산 문제는 우려를 불러일으키고 있으며, 다른 배터리 제조업체에도 잠재적으로 도움이 될 수 있습니다.

4680 배터리 생산의 과제와 테슬라 및 LG 에너지 솔루션에 미치는 영향

4680 배터리의 낮은 효율로 인해 테슬라는 배터리 생산에 어려움을 겪고 있으며, 건식 공정과 습식 공정 사이에서 딜레마에 빠졌습니다.

LG에너지솔루션은 건식 공정을 성공적으로 구현해 테슬라에 4680 배터리를 공급하는 데 유리한 고지를 선점했습니다.

양극재 생산에 습식 공정을 사용함에 따라 LG 에너지 솔루션의 생산이 지연되고 있으며, 테슬라가 이 문제를 해결해야 한다는 긴박감을 조성하고 주가에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

리튬 생산에 관한 미국과 칠레의 합의는 LG에너지솔루션과 포스코홀딩스에게 긍정적인 발전으로, 잠재적으로 IRA 보조금을 받을 수 있고 칠레 리튬 프로젝트 참여에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

칠레의 리튬 산업과 배터리 부문에 미치는 영향

칠레는 세계 최대 리튬 매장량을 보유하고 있으며 전 세계에서 두 번째 또는 세 번째로 큰 리튬 생산국입니다.

알베말, SQM, LG에너지솔루션, 포스코홀딩스와 같은 민간 기업의 참여와 잠재적인 세제 혜택은 업계에 큰 의미가 있습니다.

포스코홀딩스의 리튬 광산에서 예상되는 3,500억~5,000억 원의 수익은 2차전지 업종에 대한 인식을 변화시켜 2차전지 2차 지수가 상승할 때 숏커버링을 촉발할 수 있을 것으로 예상됩니다.

트럼프의 대통령직이 2차 전지 및 전기 자동차 산업에 미치는 영향

주식 실적은 약 1년 후에 개선될 것으로 예상되며, 그 시점에 숏 커버링이 가능할 것으로 보입니다.

트럼프의 리스크 증가는 주가의 추가 하락을 야기하며 업계의 불확실성을 가중시키고 있습니다.

전기 자동차 부문은 이제 트럼프의 대통령직이 규제와 인센티브에 미칠 잠재적 영향과 함께 경쟁력과 자생력을 개발하는 데 초점을 맞추고 있습니다.

시장은 실적 중심 접근법으로 전환하고 있으며, 조선업종이 강력한 투자 잠재력을 보이고 있습니다.

현대중공업과 삼성중공업 같은 기업은 주가가 크게 상승했습니다.

현재 노후 선박 교체 주기가 조선업의 호황을 이끌고 있어 조선업은 탄력적이고 지속적인 상승 추세를 보이는 업종입니다.