Yesterday, due to a shock from the United States, Asian indices recorded significant declines. The KOSPI 200 fell over 4% today and continued to decline without any rebound. The Nikkei index dropped even more; it had already fallen significantly yesterday and fell even further today, by 8%. With the negative impact of interest rate hikes added to the mix, it declined more than Korea. If Korea had raised interest rates, the drop would have been even more severe than Japan's. In the U.S., the Nasdaq fell by 2.4% yesterday and is down another 1.5% today, totaling a 4% decline. A month ago, the Nasdaq was at 2,700 points, but it has now dropped over 2,000 points. Surprisingly, China experienced a smaller decline, while the most significant drops were seen in Korea, Japan, and Taiwan. These countries, which benefit from the U.S. economy and are semiconductor-exporting nations, have been hit the hardest. Korea, too, has felt the impact.

There was a significant impact on technology stocks, with Hynix dropping over 10%. One of the reasons for the decline in the stock market is concerns about a recession. Yesterday, the PMI came out much lower than expected; I thought it would be around 48.8, but it plummeted to 46.8. This has led to growing concerns about a potential economic downturn. 

Currently, the unemployment rates in the southern and northern regions of the United States are different. The unemployment rate in the north is quite poor, especially in the Rust Belt area, where the unemployment rate is rising rapidly. With the PMI dropping, people are starting to think that there might be a serious issue at hand. 

We will have to wait for today's unemployment rate announcement to know for sure, but I hope the rapid increase in unemployment in certain regions is not due to a manufacturing recession. It is also important to see whether the overall unemployment rate in the U.S. exceeds 4.1%.

The unemployment rate is announced weekly, and we need to closely observe whether the situation is more serious there or if it is starting to affect the Sun Belt region as well. The yield on government bonds is rapidly declining; the 10-year bond yield, which was over 4.7% three months ago, has now dropped to the 3.9% range, a decrease of three steps. If a recession is indeed on the way, the Federal Reserve should not lower interest rates in September; they should have done it in July or, at the very least, urgently in August. However, with the elections coming up, they cannot act hastily. As the Federal Reserve has done in the past, they are likely to find themselves in a situation where they have to lower rates belatedly. If a recession arrives before a rate cut, the market will experience a slowdown in consumption and employment. Until now, the stock market has been rising under the premise that there would be no recession. For the past year and a half, the economy has been good, and the no-landing scenario has held up even with interest rate hikes.

This belief has led the stock market to rise and fall over the past year and a half. During this time, the Federal Reserve's policies, Wall Street's investment directions, the AI rally, and future expectations have all been based on the assumption that the economy is doing well. The Federal Reserve has set its policies accordingly. However, when the market's fundamental premise collapses, panic ensues. If the decline happens slowly, we can respond, but if it happens quickly, we cannot react in time. In war, if the enemy advances rapidly, there are cases where the fortress falls without any time to prepare defenses. If the economy deteriorates quickly, the Federal Reserve, Wall Street, and the AI rally will all be caught off guard. If the pace of the recession is faster than expected, it will be problematic. If today's unemployment rate comes out high, it will confirm that speed. The unemployment rate must not be high at all. Warren Buffett's stake has been maintained for 12 consecutive days.

Selling stocks is not a good sign. When Warren Buffett thinks about selling stocks, it's usually for two reasons: first, to raise cash to buy better stocks, and second, because he believes the stock is overpriced. Currently, large U.S. bank stocks have reached all-time highs while a recession is looming. From Buffett's perspective, it might make more sense to sell now and prepare for the economic downturn rather than holding onto these stocks. This is especially true since Berkshire Hathaway currently has a significant amount of cash, likely at an all-time high. In such a situation, selling large bank stocks is not a positive indicator. If the economic boom turns into a recession, the negative factors that have been suppressed will emerge. When it becomes clear that the economy is weak, rebellions may arise from various sectors, just as when bad news starts to circulate.

One of the things I had been holding back on was commercial real estate. The value of real estate is likely to decline further. Some might say that due to interest rate cuts, the lower interest rates could help us overcome the commercial real estate crisis. However, concerns about vacancies could grow even larger. If the fears surrounding the commercial real estate that the U.S. has been trying to contain resurface, it could lead to additional issues, compounding the negative factors in the stock market. When the economy is doing well, discussions about commercial real estate might seem manageable, and we could say, We can handle this. But now, in a state of recession, dealing with commercial real estate becomes a significant burden. Even if the same risks are present, whether we can manage them or not can change depending on whether we are in a strong position or not. The same applies to the semiconductor industry, where negative factors are also emerging.

News has started to come in that China's semiconductor industry may become self-sufficient. It's a bit concerning that this news is coming at such a timing. If that happens, there are worries that the semiconductor sales of the United States, South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan could decline. Companies that have been selling AI chips from China at high prices will need to adjust their future revenue expectations. This would lead to a sharp drop in corporate value. The basic method for determining a company's value usually involves estimating future net profits five or ten years down the line and calculating the present value using discounted cash flow techniques. If future profits are expected to decline, the current value will also decrease. Additionally, Intel has announced the layoff of 15,000 employees and has no dividends, predicting poor performance in the third quarter, which caused its stock price to drop by 23% after hours. Future guidance for net profits is...

I mentioned it was 0.1 dollars, but it's just a way to comfort by saying it's not just a deficit. However, realistically, we can expect a transition to a deficit. Among the semiconductor companies that were expected to benefit from AI, many have started to emerge without any performance effects from AI. A characteristic of the second quarter earnings announcements is that companies are beginning to split into those that report earnings and those that do not. From the third quarter onwards, the number of companies reporting earnings will likely decrease even further. The companies that are still making money might face antitrust investigations, like NVIDIA, which could be investigated this time. I wonder why this antitrust investigation news came out at such a timing. It feels like they have gathered all the bad news to release it now. There were news items that could have been released earlier. Why are they suddenly coming out all at once to add to the bad news? Is it to change the market's atmosphere? Are they orchestrating short selling?

The semiconductor market has seen a sudden surge, and some companies that are performing well may face stock price declines if they are subjected to antitrust investigations in the future. Moreover, there are concerns that the dominance of a few big tech companies in the semiconductor market is hindering the growth of other firms. Republican vice-presidential candidate Vance is fueling this issue, suggesting that there will be ongoing pressure from antitrust laws. For these reasons, Wall Street and the media, which previously praised Powell for mentioning interest rates in September, are now beginning to criticize him. They argue that he should have acted in July instead of waiting until September. Just the other day, I mentioned in a video that if a recession occurs, Powell would be blamed for his missteps, and I didn't expect that statement to come out so quickly. If today's unemployment rate is expected to be 4.1% or 4.2%,

If it turns out to be above 4.3%, or if the pace of the recession accelerates, there will be factors that lead to news coverage suggesting that the interest rate cut in September should be 0.5% instead of 0.25%. The significance of the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut being 0.5% is quite substantial. It would imply that the Federal Reserve made a mistake by delaying the rate cut, resulting in a failure to control the economy. Chairman Powell, who has been discussing the independence of the Federal Reserve, would find it difficult to cut by 0.5% all at once. He might opt for a 0.25% cut and then decide to monitor the data further. There is still hope; the indicators are somewhat mixed. The argument that a 0.5% cut is excessive could be used to justify his decision for a 0.25% cut. Powell, who previously defended the delayed rate hikes by claiming inflation was temporary, would then be seen as the Federal Reserve Chair who failed to prevent a recession by delaying rate cuts.

There is also the fact that the election is just around the corner. Even if interest rates are lowered significantly, there will be talk of helping the Democratic Party, so Powell's options are limited to only 0.25% in September. In this situation, if market pressure begins to mount for a 0.5% cut, even a 0.25% rate reduction might not be seen as a positive by the market. The issue of unemployment in the U.S. has a directional trend; over the past 30 years, the U.S. has experienced five increases in unemployment rates, each with different slopes. As you can see, unemployment rates tend to accelerate. Except for during the COVID period, they gradually rise over several months, and then suddenly spike at some point. There is a golden time; if this golden time is missed, unemployment rates start to rise steeply. Even if the Federal Reserve hastily lowers rates afterward, the stock market will have already been devastated. Currently, the angle of unemployment is low.

If the angle becomes steeper and the point where acceleration begins to rise approaches, the stock market may sense this first and crash. This is because it is believed that even if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, it won't be able to stop it. This is the most dangerous situation for the stock market. The current narrative is that interest rates should be lowered three times this year, but if the unemployment rate starts to rise sharply, the conversation will shift to needing to lower rates six times this year. There will be demands for a strong commitment to save the market, such as lowering rates by 0.5% three times in a row, or increasing the intensity with reductions of 0.25, 0.5, and 0.75. If a stronger-than-expected rate cut occurs, for example, if Powell lowers rates by 0.25 once and then by 1.0 next, the market might cheer again. However, this would make it difficult to control inflation that may return next year. Right now, inflation is being contained.

It's not a stable situation. If interest rates are suddenly lowered while we are in a blocking state, inflation will inevitably rise again. In other words, Powell has said that he is caught in a trap right now. Lowering interest rates is not the right key to solve everything; the Treasury needs to release a lot of money. However, we are already in a situation where we have used up many available options. The question is how to prevent another recession when we are out of bullets. There are concerns about how the Federal Reserve will find ways to replenish its resources. What I just mentioned outlines the worst-case scenario. If the unemployment rate is well managed, it is an unusual issue that the unemployment rate has risen in the northern part of the United States, but the economy is not bad. If indicators continue to show that the economy is doing well and inflation is being cut quickly, we may be able to overcome the current crisis. However, it is not necessary to ignore the negative factors emerging in the market and invest.

We need to continuously check the situation, right? In my video, I talk about the ongoing concerns of stagnation throughout the month, as well as occasionally sharing good news. The reason for this is that one must look at both the positive and negative aspects to make a proper judgment. If one only focuses on the negative, or only looks at the positive, they will end up making biased investment decisions. For instance, betting on upward trends in a down market or betting on downward trends in a rising market will only lead to personal losses. One must broaden their perspective to invest correctly. In that sense, I am sharing both hopeful and less hopeful news, so I ask for your understanding. I will bring you good information next time as well. Please subscribe, like, and set your notifications. Once some of the negative perspectives are digested over the weekend...

I hope that the decline may decrease on Monday. I look forward to seeing you next time. Thank you.

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