연방준비제도 금리 인하: 경제적 영향 설명

### 연방준비제도, 금리 인하: 시장과 귀하에게 주는 시사점
* 📉 연방준비제도이사회는 금리를 **25bp 인하**하여 역사상 가장 제한적인 긴축 사이클의 종료를 알렸으며, 이는 주식 시장, 주택 시장, 국가 부채 및 미국 달러 가치에 큰 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.
* 💰 현재 인플레이션은 **2.4%로 2022년의 9%에 비해 눈에 띄게 감소**했지만 물가는 여전히 예년보다 높아 **부채 연체율은 12년 만에 최고치**를 기록했습니다.
* 🏠 금리 하락에도 불구하고 인플레이션 우려와 시장 역동성으로 인해 모기지 금리가 여전히 높기 때문에 **기존 주택 판매는 1995년 이후 최악의 한 해**를 보내고 있습니다.
* 📈 주식 시장은 5년 동안 **S&P 500 지수가 두 배로 상승**하는 등 괄목할 만한 상승세를 보였지만, 애널리스트들은 향후 10년 동안 **연간 수익률이 3%에서 7% 사이**로 낮아질 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.
* 🏦 주택 시장은 **2024년 주택 판매량이 2% 증가**에 그칠 것으로 예상되며, 재고 증가와 경제성 문제가 경기 둔화의 원인으로 작용할 것입니다.
* 💼 연방준비제도는 물가 안정과 최대 고용을 유지하는 것을 목표로 하고 있지만 최근 **고용 지표가 하락 추세**를 보이고 있어 향후 **추가 금리 인하**로 이어질 수 있습니다.
* 🗳 과거 데이터에 따르면 주식 시장 성과는 **대통령이 속한 정당의 영향을 크게 받지 않으며**, 대신 개인 금융 전략에 집중하는 것이 중요하다는 점을 강조합니다.
* 🔍 경제 환경이 변화함에 따라 개인은 잠재적인 시장 변동성에 효과적으로 대처하기 위해 **비용 관리, 저축, 지속적인 투자에 우선순위**를 두어야 합니다.

최근 연방준비제도의 금리 인하는 인플레이션과 주택 시장에 영향을 미치는 경제 역학 관계의 변화를 예고합니다.

What's up, you guys? It's Graham here, and you better be ready for what just happened. After record-high stock prices, a slowing housing market, and a brand new presidential election, as of a few hours ago, the Federal Reserve made their decision again to cut interest rates another 25 basis points, officially marking the end of the most restrictive tightening cycle we've ever seen in history. That's right, for the first time since 2020, interest rates are beginning to come back down, and that's going to have some pretty serious implications throughout almost everything, from the stock market to the housing market, the national debt, and even the value of the US dollar. So, given the recent update and their brand new decision as of today, let's discuss exactly what happened, what the Federal Reserve just said, the impact this is about to have on everything money, and then most importantly, what this means for you watching because there's a lot going on that most people aren't talking about. Although, really quick, if you appreciate me doing my best to get this video out within a few hours,

of their decision. It would mean a lot to me if you hit the like button or subscribed if you haven't done that already. It's totally free. It takes you a split second, and as a thank you for doing that, here's a picture of a squirrel. So, thanks so much, and also a big thank you to Incog for sponsoring today's video, but more on that later. All right, so as a bit of a background, all of this is completely dependent on one single word: the ultimate Boogeyman of the entire economy, inflation. That's right. Even though we've made drastic improvements from the 9% inflation rate of 2022, inflation currently stands at 2.4%, which is higher than what the Federal Reserve would like, but it's on a trajectory of slowly continuing to fall. For example, in the most recent inflation report, it was found that energy prices dropped by 6.8%, used cars and trucks fell by 5.1%, hotels fell by 2.3%, and wait for it, lettuce is now 3.2% less.

expensive, okay, but null seriousness. The current inflation rate is a bit of a double-edged sword because, despite inflation returning back to somewhat normal, prices are still significantly higher today than they were a few years ago. And as a result, debt delinquency is back to its highest level in 12 years. However, the White House says that this is all a big error of calculation because, in their eyes, inflation is actually below 2% if you remove housing from the equation. That's right, when you calculate the level of inflation within our economy, one metric makes up a third of the overall rating, and that's what's called owner's equivalent rent. In this case, homeowners are surveyed and asked if they were to rent their home out today, how much would they charge? Well, that amount is calculated within the inflation report, and since housing prices are going up, that's reflected in the headline number that we see here. Except if you just remove that, since housing prices are the result of a structural shortfall and not inflationary pressures, then voila, inflation is now below 2%, and it's a job.

well done. Although before we go into the massive problem with this, along with why mortgage rates are going up despite interest rates going down, we need to talk about another metric that's extremely important: the stock market. Look, on the surface, the stock market has seen an absolutely incredible rise over these last 5 years. I mean, let's face it, the S&P 500 has doubled within that time frame. But as you're about to see, those sort of returns aren't exactly normal. Like, take a look at this: since 1924, the S&P 500 has increased overall by just 65% a year, or with dividends reinvested by 10% a year, which is even lower when you account for inflation. And as Goldman Sachs points out, there might be a scenario in which the next 10 years sees significantly lower returns than many of us have become accustomed to. How low, you might ask? Well, as Goldman Sachs points out, over the last few years, the vast majority of stock market profits are driven by what's called The Magnificent

7, which consists of Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. So, is this sustainable? And according to Goldman Sachs, it's not the way they see it. Valuations are some of the highest they've ever been when you compare that to earnings, and as a result, historically, that tends to mean that the stock market return returns over the following 10 years are suboptimal, or I guess, as they say, their model predicts annual returns ranging from plus 7% to NE 1% with a 72% probability that stocks will underperform bonds over the next decade. For Goldman Sachs, this translates to just a 3% annualized return over the next 10 years. Of course, not everybody agrees with data Trek, saying that while the stock market has endured decade-long stretches of 3% returns, those tend to follow very specific catalysts such as the Great Depression, the 1974 oil shock, or the 2008 financial crisis. Today, none of those look to be occurring, but you also can't deny that as of now, a few

very big companies make up the vast majority of stock market profits. And when you dig a little bit deeper, you'll begin to see that almost 70% of the S&P 500 is underperforming the overall index. Like, even Vanguard lowered their next 10-year projection to just 32% a year. That's why it's really important to understand that 15 to 20% annualized returns are not normal. It's probably not something that's going to happen consistently. And over the next decade or two, there's probably going to be a good chance that people don't earn the sort of returns that they would initially like. However, I do say all of that with a bit of a catch, because even though almost every analyst is somewhat pessimistic over the next decade, anything can happen, and there's a chance the stock market continues to rally, especially when you least expect it. For instance, Schwab seems to think that we could see a 6.2% return. BlackRock thinks 5.2% is possible. And if the money

printer turns back on full force. The sky is the limit, but as far as how this impacts the housing market, here's where things get crazy. Now, even though it might be hard to believe that existing home sales are on track for their worst year since 1995, it's not hard to believe that your personal data is probably floating around on the internet somewhere in the hands of data brokers, third parties, and spammers who are looking to target you. And it's becoming an epidemic. Look, as much as I enjoy talking about the markets, the sad reality is that anytime you make a purchase, anytime you sign up for a product or service, or anytime you give out your information, your data is being passed around and sold on the internet, resulting in spam phone calls, phishing attempts, junk emails, the list goes on. Thankfully, though, you do have a right to protect your privacy and request the data brokers remove the information they have about you. And even though it could take years to do yourself manually, it doesn't have to be that way with our

sponsor in cogni. They could do all the work for you by reaching out to data brokers on your behalf, requesting that your personal data be removed, and then dealing with any objections that websites or data brokers might have. And since many data brokers continue collecting your information even after they've removed it, Cogni makes sure that your data stays off the market with repeated removal requests. All you have to do is make an account, grant them the right to work for you, and sit back while they keep you updated every step of the way. They're also available risk-free for 30 days, so anyone is able to give it a shot and get a full refund if you're not happy with it. So, there's no reason not to try it for myself. This is essential in cutting down on the amount of spam phone calls and emails I get on a daily basis, and if you don't make an active effort to get your information removed, it's probably just going to keep happening. So, take down your personal

information today by going to incog dcom gram and use the code gram for 60% off an annual plan, or you could also use the link down below in the description. Thank you so much, and now let's get back to the video. All right, so if you'd like to hear where things get a bit wild, let's discuss the housing market. As of recently, it was said that existing home sales are on track for their worst year since 1995 for the second year in a row. Why? Well, most economists believe that home sales in 2024 would actually be going higher thanks to falling interest rates, but instead, the opposite happened. Despite falling rates, mortgages went even higher. This is because when the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, what they're really doing is influencing the short-term borrowing of treasuries, or basically the borrowing rates over the next 6 to 12 months. But mortgages follow a completely different metric, the tenure treasury. Since most mortgages are only held for about 10 years, this becomes the biggest competition between

investors basically think of it this way: the 10-year treasury and the 30-year mortgage are nearly identical when it comes to risk-adjusted returns. So, if one moves higher, the other goes right alongside with it. That's why, contrary to the FED lowering interest rates, investors believe that inflation is going to be higher than anticipated for longer than anticipated, and that's resulted in mortgage rates remaining elevated. Results of the concern that the government's going to be digging themselves deep and deeper into debt, so there's a bit of that as well. Essentially, the FED doesn't have a lot of control over this, and the market's going to dictate whatever it believes is going to be most likely to happen, especially when it's said that future rate cuts will be a lot more modest. So, as a result, home sales are falling fast. As far as what this means for the future, Zillow believes that home sales are only on pace to climb 2% in 2024 and 0.9%.

over the next 12 months, with the main culprit being rising inventory. In fact, it was said that a quarter of first-time buyers are holding off until after the election, or more specifically, 26% said that they're waiting to see if Harris's housing affordability plan goes into effect, and 16% are waiting to see if Trump's housing affordability plan is enacted. Another culprit could also simply be that mortgages are expensive, housing is largely unaffordable, and some sellers out there are asking way more money than their home is ever realistically worth. On top of that, I'm also personally not a big fan of waiting on politically sponsored plans that may or may not ever happen. But the trend is apparently clear; we are slowly heading towards a neutral housing market as more inventory continues to be listed and fewer homes are being sold over list price. Rent growth is also slowing down quite a bit, with rents only increasing $1 over the last month. Look, anecdotally, as someone who's been closely involved in the real estate market since 2008, I

have to say I am seeing more inventory come up. I am seeing more price reductions than usual, and in some higher-end markets, buyers are getting the upper edge. But for entry-level homes, it's still just as competitive, even when mortgage rates are still high. Although as far as what the Federal Reserve has to say about this, along with their plan for the future, here is what you came for. As of a few hours ago, the Federal Reserve made their decision, as expected, to cut interest rates another 25 basis points, mainly because their preferred measure of inflation is trending back downwards. For example, take a look at what's called PCE or personal consumer expenditures. This tracks the cost of items from the perspective of businesses, and that tells us how much consumers are willing to pay across the board. Essentially, think of this a bit like the canary in the coal mine, where if businesses see reduced demand and lowered cost, that probably means inflation is coming back down. And in this case, PCE was found to have come in

at just 2.1% year-over-year, basically prices are falling, and this gives the Federal Reserve a little bit more room to cut rates. Now, unfortunately, not everything is sunshine and rainbows because there's one more element that's going to affect the Federal Reserve rate cuts in the future, and that's going to be jobs. See, here's the thing: the Federal Reserve's entire goal is to maintain price stability and maximum employment. So, even though prices are coming back down, the jobs market is not looking so good, and that's causing the Federal Reserve to take a little bit more action. For instance, the recent jobs report found that only 12,000 jobs were added in the month of September, and even though unemployment is still incredibly low, all things considered, it's still something. It's going to take a lot more observation over the coming few months, especially since employment is on a downtrend. Besides all of this, though, Jerome Powell ended up giving more of the same, which is basically that their goal is to maintain price stability.

they're monitoring the labor market, and that they're going to make all decisions based on the data that they get at the time. All of this suggests that we're probably going to see one more rate cut throughout the end of the year, most likely to the tune of 25 basis points. Although in terms of my own thoughts about this and what you could do, especially since we're around an election, here's what you need to know. Look, when it comes to the terrible jobs numbers, honestly, they could probably be chalked up to major hurricanes and strikes. But it is worthwhile to reiterate that employment numbers are trending lower, and if this continues, we're most likely going to see a series of rate cuts throughout 2025 as a way to spark up the economy. But even beyond that, we also have the topic of elections. Now, even though some people might really like or really dislike the results, the truth is when stock market returns are considered, it really doesn't make that big of a difference. For example, historically, the highest compound annual

growth returns came from a Republican president at 10.2%, but a Democrat president isn't too far behind at 99.4%. To take that a step further, when you begin looking at median returns, you'll begin to notice that Republican presidents have frequently been plagued by rather substantial stock market losses as well. And all of this means that average annual returns tend to be higher with Democrats at 12.9% versus Republicans at 99.9%. And yes, if that sounds confusing, just think of it like this: even though Republican presidents have overall had higher returns over the entire course of their presidency, there's also a lot more volatility, or buying opportunities as I like to call it, and that drags down the median return. All of this really suggests that at the end of the day, it doesn't make that big of a difference, and instead, we should focus on what we can directly control, which is keeping a consistent income, living below your means, saving as much money as you can, tracking expenses, and

then investing the difference consistently. To me, that's the most important in the long term. So far, stocks have only gone up. So, with that said, thank you so much for watching. Make sure to hit the like button and subscribe if you haven't done it already. And don't forget to check out our sponsor, In Cogy, down below in the description. Thank you so much, and until next time.

URGENT: Trump Wins, Federal Reserve Cuts Rates, Stocks Hit All-Time High!

As a 30 year old real estate agent and investor who started working in real estate shortly after turning 18, with over $120,000,000 in residential real estate sales since 2008, I've created this channel to share my successes, failures, and experiences in the real estate industry and to support others who are thinking of getting into the business. Oh, and I'm also obsessed with cars. A lot. So expect to see some cars uploaded to my channel. A lot. And Subscribe. Because all the cool kids are doing it.  

Feel free to follow me on Snapchat / Instagram: GPStephan

Graham Stephan

연방준비제도이사회는 금리를 25bp 인하하여 역사상 가장 제한적인 긴축 사이클이 끝났음을 알렸습니다.

이번 결정은 주택 시장이 둔화되고 물가 상승률이 현재 2.

4%로 하락한 가운데 내려진 것입니다.

금리 인하의 영향은 주식 시장, 주택 시장, 국가 부채 및 미국 달러 가치에 영향을 미쳐 상당한 영향을 미칠 것으로 예상됩니다.

주식 시장의 이례적인 상승과 향후 전망

S&P 500 지수는 지난 5년 동안 두 배로 상승했지만, 과거 데이터와 비교하면 이 정도의 수익률은 정상적이지 않습니다.

골드만삭스는 향후 10년간 주식이 채권보다 수익률이 낮을 확률이 72%에 달할 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.

소수의 주요 기업에 수익이 집중되고 S&P 500의 70%에 가까운 종목의 실적이 저조한 것은 불확실성을 가중시켜 애널리스트들이 미래 수익률 전망을 낮추도록 이끌고 있습니다.

데이터 프라이버시와 주택 시장의 영향

기존 주택 판매는 금리 하락에도 불구하고 1995년 이후 최악의 한 해를 보내고 있습니다.

개인 데이터가 인터넷에 널리 유포되어 스팸과 피싱 시도로 이어지지만, 개인은 개인 데이터 삭제를 요청할 권리가 있습니다.

Cogni는 30일 무료 체험판과 60% 할인된 연간 요금제로 중개인의 개인 데이터를 삭제할 수 있는 서비스를 제공합니다.

국채 수익률이 모기지 금리에 미치는 영향

투자자들은 10년 만기 국채와 30년 만기 모기지의 위험 조정 수익률이 비슷하다고 보고 있으며, 이로 인해 FED의 금리 인하에도 불구하고 모기지 금리가 상승할 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.

주택 판매는 감소하고 있으며, Zillow는 재고 증가와 비싼 모기지로 인해 2024년에는 2% 증가에 그칠 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.

연방준비제도이사회는 최근 선호하는 인플레이션 지표가 하향 추세로 돌아설 조짐을 보임에 따라 금리를 25bp 인하했습니다.

연방 준비 은행의 금리 인하와 고용 시장 우려

1% 하락하면서 연방준비제도이사회가 금리를 인하할 여지가 커지고 있습니다.

그러나 9월에 일자리가 12,000개만 늘어나는 등 고용 시장이 어려움을 겪고 있어 연준의 감시가 강화되고 있습니다.

제롬 파월 의장은 연말까지 한 차례 더 금리를 인하할 가능성이 있으며, 고용 추세가 지속된다면 2025년까지 연쇄적으로 금리를 인하할 가능성이 있다고 밝혔습니다.

공화당과 민주당 대통령 하의 주식 시장 수익률 비교

공화당 대통령의 평균 수익률은 10.

전체 수익률은 더 높지만 공화당 대통령들은 변동성이 더 크고 주식 시장 손실이 커서 평균 수익률이 더 낮습니다.

핵심은 장기적인 재정적 성공을 위해 꾸준한 수입에 집중하고, 생활비 이하로 생활하며, 저축하고, 지출을 추적하고, 꾸준히 투자해야 한다는 것입니다.