(soldier speaks foreign language) (missile fires) (gun shots) - [Narrator] Can Ukraine win? That's the question on the minds of many analysts as the war in Ukraine grinds on. - With regards to Ukrainian forces, a friend described it as they are bleeding out. - [Narrator] Today, after over 2.5 years of fighting, Russia controls about 18% of Ukrainian territory. What's more, Ukrainian troops are outnumbered and outgunned with little prospect of significant relief. Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election also brings a fresh jolt of uncertainty to continue US support for Ukraine. - Do you want Ukraine to win this war? - I want the war to stop. I want to save lives. (tank fires) - [Narrator] Now, with Russia continuing to make slow gains on the battlefield and Kiev facing a tough winter, some believe Ukraine may need to come up with a more realistic plan.

(missile fires) - To better understand the state of play on the battlefield and what may come next, (missile fires) the Wall Street Journal sat down with retired Brigadier General Mark Kimmit. - Before we talk about the battlefield, it might be helpful to put the battlefield in perspective. Ukraine is much, much larger. It goes along this entire borderline, 4/5 of the country is not involved in the war directly, there's no direct combat action going on. The Russians right now are focused as a main effort is up in the Donetsk and Luhansk. They're trying to, of course, continue to push to the East, but there are also two other areas of interest. This area around Sumy is the area that people now know as the Khursk salient, where the Ukrainians made an attack into Russia proper, trying to pull off a significant amount of forces from the front lines. - [Narrator] According to General Kimmit,

the Khursk salient attack wasn't just the most effective move Ukraine made within the past year; it was also a significant propaganda victory for the Ukrainians. I think it was masterful in terms of the element of surprise that they could attack into Russia, make gains, and point a dagger towards Moscow a couple of hundred miles away. It was, in many ways, wrong in terms of its other intent, which was to draw key Russian forces off the Eastern front. And I think it was wrong (missile fires) because it was inevitable that the Russians would do what the Russians always do, which is, they're now trying to envelop that force. Over here, in Luhansk, in Donetsk, the battle for the last six months has for the most part been focused on one side defending and the other side attacking key road installations. Primarily, these two roads going Kharkiv are being blocked at these key intersections.

where a number of roads come through, but these are very, very small areas, very small distances measured in the kilometers, in many ways, in many times, to hundreds of meters. Down here in Zaporizhia and Kherson, it's clear that the Russians are holding the line there. I don't think there's an opportunity for this winter for the Ukrainian forces to make any headway down here. They might in fact push out a little bit from Kherson, but I think they're going to go into the wintertime holding the line. So overall, stalemate along this line. This is where the main effort of the Russian forces is focused upon, trying to break through along this route and along this route to either threaten Kharkiv or to come down here and surround the forces that are the Ukrainian forces that are attacking along this route. And of course, trying to get Donetsk back if either Ukrainians

and attack West if you're the Russians. So watch this area for the main action, supporting action up here around Kharkiv and Khursk. And holding the line down here in Zaporizhia and Kherson. - [Narrator] In recent months, the Ukrainians have had success deploying drone swarms into Russia. These long-range strikes which have reached all the way to Russia's arctic shores in the north and areas bordering Kazakhstan in the east, have slammed into missile storage facilities, strategic fuel reserves, military airfields, and defense plants. Despite the many sacrifices made thus far by the Ukrainians, General Kimmit sees the conflict as an ongoing stalemate. - I think it'd be accurate to say that neither side is winning, nor is either side losing. But if you talk about the ability to replace those forces, it is clear that the Ukrainians are losing capability at a faster rate than the Russians are losing capability.

- [Narrator] The West still backs Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's long-term stated aim of taking back control of Ukrainian territory. But recently, the Biden administration said it was concerned that the Ukrainian leader's plan for winning the war against Russia lacks a comprehensive strategy. - His war aims, which is pushing the Russians out, restoring sovereignty both on Eastern Ukraine and on Crimea, my view is, that's impossible, unrealistic. - [Narrator] The lack of progress on the battlefield has led some European diplomats to question the feasibility of Zelensky's war aims. - The expense to the European economies to provide weapons and equipment is starting to bite. They don't have that excess capacity for one, they don't have the industrial capability to produce replacements, two, and three, as we, the United States, continue to press for them to meet their NATO obligations,

to do all of that is a pretty tough call on the Europeans. Another concern is population decline. A confidential Ukrainian estimate from earlier this year put the number of dead Ukrainian troops at 80,000 and the wounded at 400,000, according to people familiar with the matter. Western intelligence estimates of Russian casualties vary, with some putting the number of dead as high as nearly 200,000 and the wounded at around 400,000. To shore up its manpower on the battlefield, Russia is also looking to North Korean troops. The Pentagon recently said, North Korea sent about 10,000 troops to Russia. If you think about war, 90%, 95% of soldiers on the battlefield aren't on the front lines. They're cooking, they're in command posts, they're repairing trucks. That's why Ukraine conscripts from the top, troubling it is now the case that they're sending some

of those older men into the trench lines. It's clear that Zelensky wants to protect the 18 to 25-year-old cohort because that's the future of Ukraine, both in available military if necessary, but really to rebuild the post-war economy that will come. Unfortunately, many of those are defecting or deserting. So, in my mind, Zelensky has got a personnel issue, not only in terms of sheer numbers, but also in terms of support for the war among the military. - [Narrator] Another important factor is the new US President-elect Donald Trump. Trump has vowed to end the war quickly. - I think Zelensky is maybe the greatest salesman of any politician that's ever lived. Every time he comes to our country, he walks away with $60 billion. Looking ahead, General Kimmit sees a hard road for the Ukrainians. - There is little doubt in my mind that the Ukrainian armed forces could continue

to stay intact and on the battlefield through 2025, through a year from now. But I think the political and diplomatic issues are going to overwhelm the battlefield issues. (pensive music) (gunshot) (soldiers speak foreign language)

With a Trump Victory, What’s Next for the Russia-Ukraine War? | WSJ

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