주식 시장 조정: 예측 및 전략

### 미국 대통령 선거로 이어지는 주식 시장 동향과 잠재적 시나리오 평가하기
* 📉 구글과 테슬라가 실적 발표 후 주가가 눈에 띄게 하락하는 등 **주식 시장에 대한 부정적인 심리**가 확산되고 있습니다.
* 📊 원래 예상은 **기술적 고평가, 실적 시즌 동안의 자사주 매입 감소, 포워드 가이던스 하향 가능성** 등 세 가지 요인에 따라 **7월에 단기 조정**이 있을 것으로 예상했습니다.
* 🏦 4월 이후 고용 및 소매 판매와 같은 경제 지표가 악화되고 있어 **향후 기업들의 가이던스에 영향을 미칠 가능성**이 있습니다.
* 🏛 트럼프 대통령과 관련된 총격 사건은 **거시 경제 및 재정 정책에 영향을 미치는 중요한 변수**가 되었습니다.
* 🇺🇸 다가오는 미국 대선은 **바이든 또는 트럼프의 승리에 대한 다양한 시나리오**로 인해 시장 예측에 복잡성을 더하고 있습니다.
* 💰 재무부의 유동성 지표는 시장 움직임을 평가하는 데 사용되며, 현재 추세는 **완전한 약세장이 아닌 약간의 조정**을 시사하고 있습니다.
* 📈 옐런 의장의 시장 유동성에 대한 영향력은 상당하며, **선거를 앞두고 시장 안정에 대한 잠재적 시나리오**가 존재합니다.
* 🌐 대선 이후에는 **국제 금리와 인플레이션**이 시장 동향에 영향을 미치는 주요 요인이 될 수 있습니다.

경제 지표와 정치적 불확실성 등 다양한 요인으로 인해 주식 시장 심리가 부정적이어서 조정 가능성이 있습니다.

Hello, this is the host. Recently, the stock market sentiment has not been good. Both Google and Tesla dropped significantly after their earnings announcements yesterday. It seems like a full correction phase is starting. We were expecting a short-term correction during the July earnings season, but we never imagined that the trigger would be an assassination attempt on Trump and the subsequent sharp rise. So, instead of naively responding by buying when it drops 5% to 7% as planned, let's reflect on the basis of why we thought there would be a correction in July and update our views with the newly emerged information. Originally, there were three reasons for considering a short-term correction in July, starting from the correction in April that lasted for almost three months technically.

There is a lot of pressure, and we are entering the blackout period when the repurchase of our own shares during the performance season is decreasing. Above all, there is a risk that the forward guidance for the performance season may be downward. First of all, from a technical perspective, it is still overvalued to some extent, and since now is the first support line, if there are catalysts like Google's performance that Tesla announced yesterday, it could drop by another 4-5% until the next support. Next, the part of repurchasing our own shares during the performance season is effective but not a major factor. Lastly, the third important point is that even if the sales and profit indicators of the current quarter are achieved during the performance season, if the management provides downward forward guidance for the subsequent quarters, it could lead to an adjustment trend. This was our opinion. And regarding this, if you take a look at the cycle heatmap, for now, right now.

The housing construction market has been very poor since last year, with a brief rebound at the beginning of this year, but it has worsened again since the second quarter. Above all, employment indicators are visibly deteriorating this year, and retail sales are gradually worsening on the consumption side. Also, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which was not good in 2022 and 2023, briefly rebounded earlier this year but has started to decline again since May. Therefore, when management provides forward guidance, they have no choice but to refer to these economic indicators. While economic indicators are almost immediately reflected in stock index levels, there is a delayed aspect in reflecting them in the forward guidance of individual companies. Generally speaking, trying to predict specific numerical values of economic indicators is considered meaningless, and I agree with that.

I mean, for example, I couldn't even imagine that the recent CPI would record a minus on a monthly basis. Also, important economic indicators such as CPI and unemployment rate tend to lag behind industrial indicators or are quickly absorbed by the market right after being announced. So, this area is quite efficient, meaning it's difficult to make excess profits. However, since the management's forward guidance is announced quarterly, these economic indicators are much more forward-looking, and the fluctuation in the valuation of stocks based on this forward guidance is significant. In other words, it's not like a sudden shock from the Ukraine war or the COVID situation; rather, when a gradual downturn or recovery is approaching, signs are already showing in these economic indicators. However, the forward guidance of individual stocks is somewhat less reflected in the valuation.

There are cases like this sometimes. Of course, because the deviation varies significantly by individual stock, it cannot always be said uniformly that forward guidance always lags behind economic indicators. Companies that heavily relied on rosy forecasts in their existing forward guidance start to show signs of changes in the economic situation when adjustments are made to the forward guidance on the day of the earnings announcement, leading to significant fluctuations. Consequently, even if experts' revenue expectations or such consensus are exceeded, the stock price can suddenly drop by 10% to 20%. In any case, in the second quarter of this year, employment and retail sales indicators have been gradually and visibly weakening since April. In reality, the reactions to earnings announcements, from Nike to LA to Google, have not been very positive. Therefore, in response to the deteriorating economy, management is now...

The guidance is downward, and we are witnessing valuation adjustments following the downward forward guidance. However, in a situation where the selling pressure is severe both technically and fundamentally, the trigger that reverses the trend or provides adjustments could simply be a trigger based on justification. The shooting incident involving Trump, which triggered the adjustment this time, is not just a trigger based on justification, but a variable that influences macroeconomic and fiscal policy aspects, so the perspective and response to the adjustment naturally have to be different. Originally, the view on how to respond when the adjustment came in July was mentioned a few seconds ago in the column. It was the base scenario to buy when there is an adjustment of about 5% to 7% and expect a rally until the presidential election. At the core of that logic was Yellen.

Looking at the 20 presidential elections held over the past 80 years since 1944, there have been 17 instances where the ruling party won if the stock index rose in the last 3 months before the election, and a change in power occurred if it fell. Therefore, Yellen, in response to the proposal announced on May 1st regarding the issuance of government bonds by QRA, has not hidden her strong willingness to support the stock prices by wielding her authority in any way possible for Biden's re-election. Just like the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, who holds immense power, openly expresses such strong determination, and I have also reflected Yellen's intentions a lot in the latter half of the year. Therefore, the red line in the graph right now represents the S&P 500 index, which is the sum of the funds in the market and the TJ Kang of the Treasury Department, now displayed in negative values on the graph.

Personally, I am utilizing a liquidity indicator effectively. When this blue line is rising, it means that the liquidity of the central bank and the treasury is flowing into the market. When this blue line is falling, it means that the liquidity in the market is being absorbed by the central bank and the treasury. Originally, the explanation was not as clear, but after COVID, with the increase in fiscal spending, it has become a very good signal for capturing movements in the stock market. Of course, what is not visible here is the interest rate movement, so it does not provide a complete picture from a monetary policy perspective, but still, it gives quite a meaningful signal. After the outbreak of COVID, the Fed declared zero interest rates, started quantitative easing, and supported the market. If you look at it since then, when this liquidity is unleashed,

As we enter the beginning of 2022, liquidity has decreased, leading to a tightening of monetary policy. Adjustment is now underway. Furthermore, from the end of 2022, liquidity will increase, showing an upward trend. However, at this point, excluding the aspect of the Fed's monetary policy, liquidity in Yeolrae 4 and TJ Janggo has remained at a minimum level since COVID. Out of around 12,200, Yeolrae holds about 800, aiming to deplete 8,800 from May for the re-election of the Democratic Party. Therefore, our original scenario was expecting a slight adjustment this time, not a full-fledged bear market, around 5% to 7% correction. However, even mighty Yeolrae could not anticipate or prevent various verbal mistakes and ensuing events due to Biden's mild cognitive impairment symptoms. Therefore, the entire nation is currently in the midst of the presidential election.

With the rapid changes, one of the most headache-inducing people is probably Run. From now on, it's a bit speculative and fictional scenario, so please be cautious and enjoy it. If you look at TJ's finance department, since revenue usually comes in April to June, considering that, even though we have been spending a bit in April and June, we haven't spent as much as I thought. Of course, I should check the recent CBO report for the exact details, but anyway, for the past few weeks, there's a feeling of holding back a bit. I think once Biden resigns, although he has indeed invited Harris to support him, Harris won't officially step forward until the Democratic National Convention starting from August 19. So, from then on, the actual liquidity flow might start. There's a bit of speculation, especially regarding Harris.

During Biden's term as vice president, her track record will be evaluated and the opportunity for Biden's term will be combined. Therefore, the asset freeze in the last three months will be crucial for Harris' election. So, from Yellen's perspective, the best scenario, of course, the world doesn't flow according to Yellen's hopes, but anyway, the scenario Yellen most hopes for is from mid-July to now, at a time when Trump is rapidly rising in popularity, if the stock prices plummet, highlighting how uncertain and dangerous Trump is to the market. On August 19, as Harris prepares at the convention, showing stability and gentleness contrasting with Trump, demonstrating a stable market and rising until the presidential election. This seems to be what Yellen desires. Of course, Yellen cannot control the market, but still, Yellen, the ruling party's qu.

The best-case scenario from the Biden administration's perspective is that. On the other hand, from Trump's perspective, it can be thought that he would naturally hope for a positive stock market trend in the three months leading up to the election. In fact, Trump doesn't hide such concerns at all. In a recent interview with Bloomberg, he subtly threatened that if the Fed raises interest rates before the election and Powell does the right thing, he will let him finish the remaining term. However, I think Powell will not pay much attention to this, regardless of Trump's intentions. The fact that Trump is injured itself is very negative for the current stock market, so after this correction is over, the direction of Harris and Trump until the election day remains uncertain to some extent, creating a frozen situation. If such an ambiguous situation continues until the election day, Yellen's liquidity will be even more significant.

Bringing rallies up to the presidential election, if the picture of Trump's election almost becomes a reality, reflecting that a bit might lead to a significant downturn before the election. However, even if Trump's election becomes a reality, wouldn't it be more likely that Yellen will exhaust all of the T.J. Janggo until the presidential election? That way, even if Trump is elected, his destructive policies may not have much power, and as the debt ceiling issue becomes more prominent at the end of the year, the volatility of various assets may decrease a bit. Therefore, I think we should still hold onto our assets. What awaits us afterwards is the possibility of an increase in international interest rates and inflation. However, in this situation, whether it will be Trump or Harris, predicting which way the stock market will go until the presidential election, whether up or down, and betting on either side somehow.

Trading in food is the most basic equipment. Here, we put more effort into assigning probabilities to each scenario and identifying assets and sectors that are positive in value in various asset classes and sectors. Of course, there are hardly any good asset classes in all scenarios. On one side, there are very good asset classes, while on the other side, there are very bad asset classes. In this scenario, there are moderately good ones, but not so bad in this scenario. Therefore, it is now important to identify sectors or asset classes that are significantly superior in terms of expected value. This is where we look at the layer of global macros, one's own investment philosophy, and investment strategies such as asset allocation, value investing, and trading, reflecting them correctly. We will delve deeper into this in more detail in the next session. Thank you.

트럼프의 급부상 속 주가조정, 아직 남은 옐런의 한방 [월가아재 시즌3 - 14편]

시카고 옵션 거래소(CBOE)에서 파생상품 트레이더로 커리어를 시작하여, 보스턴과 홍콩의 헤지펀드를 거쳤고, 데이터 과학 분야로 전향하여 월가의 투자은행 Lazard, 핀테크 스타트업 Kensho Technologies를 거쳐, S&P Global의 리드 데이터 과학자로 일했습니다. 

현재는 가치투자의 4단계를 반자동화하는 플랫폼 Valley AI(www.valley.town)를 개발하고 있는 핀테크 스타트업 NeuroFusion(www.neurofusion.ai)를 운영하고 있습니다.


월가아재의 과학적 투자

주식 시장 심리와 7월 조정 전망

구글과 테슬라의 주가는 실적 발표 이후 큰 폭으로 하락하며 본격적인 조정 국면의 시작을 알렸습니다.

7월에 단기 조정을 고려한 세 가지 초기 이유는 기술적 고평가, 자사주 매입 감소, 주가 4~5% 추가 하락 가능성이 있는 포워드 가이던스 하향 위험이었습니다.

주택 건설 시장 부진, 고용 지표 악화, 소비 심리 위축은 이 기간 동안 경영진이 제시한 포워드 가이던스에 영향을 미칠 수 있는 요인입니다.

경제 지표와 포워드 가이던스가 주식 가치 평가에 미치는 영향

CPI와 실업률은 시장에 후행적인 영향을 미치는 반면, 경영진의 분기별 포워드 가이던스는 주식 가치 평가에 큰 영향을 미칩니다.

경제 지표의 변동은 매출 기대치를 초과하더라도 큰 폭의 주가 하락으로 이어질 수 있습니다.

최근 고용 및 소매 판매 지표의 약세로 인해 실적 가이던스가 하향 조정되고 실적 발표에 대한 부정적인 반응이 나타나고 있습니다.

주가지수가 대통령 선거와 정부 정책에 미치는 영향

대선 전 지난 3개월간 주가지수의 움직임은 여당의 당선 결과와 밀접한 상관관계가 있었습니다.

옐런 재무장관은 유동성과 주식 시장에 영향을 미칠 수 있는 권한을 이용해 바이든의 재선을 위해 주가를 지지하기로 결심했습니다.

특히 코로나19에 대응한 연방준비제도의 통화 정책은 시장 유동성에 큰 영향을 미쳤으며, 2022년 말부터 유동성을 긴축했다가 다시 늘릴 것으로 예상됩니다.

금융 시장에 영향을 미치는 투기 시나리오

바이든의 사임 가능성과 해리스의 향후 역할에 대한 소문으로 인해 투자자들이 주저하는 분위기가 형성되고 있습니다.

옐런의 관점에서 가장 좋은 시나리오는 시장 침체로 트럼프가 부상할 위험이 부각되는 반면, 바이든 행정부는 해리스가 선거를 준비하는 동안 안정을 기대하는 것입니다.

반면 트럼프는 대선을 앞두고 주식 시장의 긍정적인 추세를 공개적으로 원하고 있으며 연준에 영향을 미치기 위한 전술을 사용할 수 있습니다.

트럼프의 재선 가능성이 자산 거래에 미치는 영향

트럼프의 재선 가능성은 선거 전 상당한 하락을 야기할 수 있지만 옐런이 장고를 사용하면 정책의 영향을 완화할 수 있습니다.

연말로 갈수록 부채한도 문제가 부각되면서 자산 변동성이 줄어들 수 있어 자산을 보유해야 할 이유가 될 수 있습니다.

국제 금리와 인플레이션 상승 가능성을 고려해 대선 전까지 주식시장의 방향을 예측하고 우량 자산군을 파악하는 것이 중요할 것입니다.