2024년 선거 환경의 이민 정책 변화

### 변화하는 이민 정책: 국경 보안에 대한 초당파적 대응
* 🌍 '국경 보안'이라는 문구가 **2024년 민주당 강령의 중심 주제**가 되어, 이 문구가 아예 없던 **2020년 강령과는 큰 변화**가 생겼습니다.
* 📈 팬데믹 이후 국경 통과가 **5배 가까이 증가**하면서 양당은 이민 수준과 국경 혼란에 대한 유권자의 우려에 대응하고 있습니다.
* 🔄 공화당은 더 엄격한 이민 통제를 요구하는 목소리를 높이고 있는 반면, 민주당은 **시민권 취득 경로에 대한 전통적인 지지**와 함께 **더 엄격한 조치**를 채택할 의사를 보이고 있습니다.
* 🗳 망명 시스템이 과부하가 걸려 처리 기간이 **5~10년씩 지연**되고 있으며, 이로 인해 합법적이지 않은 망명 신청을 한 개인이 **미국 입국을 시도하는 인센티브**가 발생하고 있습니다.
* 🏙 2022년, 국경 도시들은 이주민들을 보호구역 도시로 수송하기 시작하면서 **자원에 대한 부담**을 강조하고 **국경 보안에 대한 민주당의 메시지 전환**을 촉구했습니다.
* 📜 해리스가 제안한 정책은 보다 온건한 입장을 반영하여 **장벽 건설을 위한 자금과 망명 절차를 신속하게 처리하는 조치**를 포함하는 국경 보안 법안을 부활시키는 것을 목표로 합니다.
* 🤝 민주당은 이민자를 환영하는 것과 더 엄격한 정책을 시행하는 것 사이에서 균형을 맞추기 위해 노력하는 반면, **트럼프는 이민과 관련된 범죄와 일자리 경쟁**을 강조하며 자신의 지지층에 계속 호소하고 있습니다.
* ⚖ 무소속은 이민 정책에서 **강경함과 관대함**을 동시에 원하기 때문에 두 정당 모두 유권자의 기대 사이에서 미묘한 균형을 잡아야 하는 과제를 안고 있습니다.

민주당은 이민 해결책을 찾는 유권자들에게 어필하기 위해 더 엄격한 국경 정책을 수용하고 있습니다.

- We can create an earned pathway to citizenship and secure our border. (audience cheering) - [Narrator] That phrase, secure our border, appears at least 10 times in the 2024 Democratic Party platform. It's a major shift from 2020, where the phrase doesn't appear even once. Harris and the Democratic Party have adopted a stricter stance on the border as voters have soured on immigration levels. - Democrats don't like seeing chaos at the Southwest border any more than Republicans. - [Narrator] But at the same time, Republicans' opposition to immigration has reached a high. - The greatest invasion in history is taking place right here in our country. - [Narrator] Here's why both parties and the electorate are looking for stricter border policies and what that means for November. One reason behind the change in rhetoric is a change in which policies voters say they want. Let's look at four popular immigration proposals.

Before the 2020 election, Democrats favored pathways to citizenship while Republicans favored more restrictive policies like expanding the wall. Both parties viewed hiring more border agents favorably. This year, those views have shifted. While even more Republicans want to see an expanded wall and more deportation, Democrats are also seeing those proposals slightly more favorably, even as they still want pathways to citizenship. A lot of these policies that people indicate they're supportive of are pretty directly contradictory to each other. And ultimately, if I had to guess what that means, it just means that people are looking at this issue and saying, It's been so broken for so long, I just need my politicians to try something to fix it. So why the shift over the last four years? To start, border crossings have increased nearly fivefold after low numbers at the beginning of the pandemic, many people seeking a form of legal protection called asylum.

And the backlog of asylum cases has been growing. And I believe the asylum system is broken. And my constituents, whether they be right or left, believe the asylum system is broken. [Narrator] Senator Chris Murphy chairs a subcommittee that oversees funding for Homeland Security. The asylum system inside the United States is so overwhelmed that it often takes 5 to 10 years for those asylum claims to be processed. That broken system became an incentive for people who didn't actually have legitimate asylum claims to come to the United States because they essentially knew that they could stay here for years, maybe even a decade, before anybody found out that they didn't have a valid claim. [Narrator] In 2022, border cities started busing migrants to blue-led sanctuary cities like Denver, New York, DC, and Chicago, which struggled to provide enough housing and other resources. This issue will destroy New York City.

- Once word spreads that, by the way, there's a free bus for you to New York, New York is also going to provide you free shelter for basically as long as you need it. New York was like, well, I mean, yeah, we have a right to shelter, but we don't have any more shelters. And so that's why I think this came to the forefront in those places where it maybe wouldn't have otherwise. - [Narrator] While some measures enacted by the Biden administration have started to bring crossings down, the surge is part of why Murphy says Democrats are prioritizing border security. At the center of Harris's proposed policy is reviving a bill that House Republicans voted down earlier this year. - And so even though Donald Trump tried to sabotage the border security bill, it is my pledge to you that as president of the United States, I will bring it back up and proudly sign it into law.

(audience cheering) - It's really central to Democratic messaging because for years, the Democrats under Biden have been blamed as the source of all the problems on the border. And this was the first time where they were able to say, Actually, we're the party of solutions. - [Narrator] Murphy was the bill's Democratic negotiator. - There is much more talk in the Democratic Party of welcoming people to this country, but Democrats wanna welcome to this country in a legal way. - The bill included resources to help speed up the asylum process and limit the number of people who could claim it. And it included traditionally conservative policies, like funding to build the wall. - As somebody who worked very closely on the 2013 bipartisan bill, I couldn't believe how many concessions the Democrats gave to Republicans. - [Narrator] Alex Conant was formally the communications director for Senator Marco Rubio. - Every time the Democrats in 2013

gave us a little bit of border security. We had to give concessions on what to do with undocumented immigrants in the country in terms of giving them some sort of legal status, ultimately a pathway to citizenship. There was none of that in the 2024 bill. - [Narrator] Harris has said she plans on addressing pathways to citizenship in addition to passing the border security bill. - Sort of going moderate on the issue of immigration is a great way for Democrats to signal that they are moderate on other issues as well. - [Narrator] More restrictive policies appeal to a more middle-ground section of the electorate and are popular with more moderate Democrats. For Trump, immigration has been a winning issue. His policies lean heavily on increasing deportation and building a wall, stances that have built on his proposals from 2016 and 2020, and that are viewed favorably by his most staunch supporters. - I think one of the things Donald Trump does on immigration

is he approaches it from a lot of different angles. He talks about immigrants taking American jobs. He also talks about it from a criminal perspective. I don't think that's held up in a lot of statistics, but when you look at voters who are concerned about crime and then they see these stories about illegal immigrants causing the crimes, I think Trump's crackdown is something that appeals to them. - [Narrator] In the most recent debate, Trump mentioned immigration or the border in his responses to questions on the economy. - And they're coming in and they're taking jobs. - [Narrator] Tariffs. - Well, bad immigration is the worst thing that can happen to our economy. - [Narrator] January 6th. - I ask, what about all the people that are pouring into our country and killing people? - [Narrator] And election integrity. - And a lot of these illegal immigrants coming in,

they're trying to get them to vote. - I think Donald Trump has redefined what it means to be a Republican, and at no issues that are more apparent than on immigration, where the party is far more skeptical of legal immigration, far more concerned about illegal immigration now than it's ever been in the past. - [Narrator] But Trump's rhetoric does risk alienating voters who may be on the fence. - In Springfield, they're eating the dogs, the people that came in, they're eating the cats. - When you talk about immigrants eating dogs and cats without any evidence, that's crazy. And so I think, to the extent that, you know, he can get off track and go too far on even an issue as winnable as immigration, that's a challenge for his campaign because it does turn off the moderate Republicans and independent voters who like his underlying policies but have concerns about his temperament.

- [Narrator] Democrats also risk going too far in trying to appease voters. - There is a sort of very vocal immigrant rights community on the left, but so far you haven't actually seen many of those immigrant rights folks break with, you know, Kamala or the Democrats in a way that some, let's say on the issue of Gaza and the war in Israel, have. I think that they have sort of recognized this is a really tough issue, and when we have two choices, this is the better of the two. - [Narrator] For Harris especially, these stricter policies could appeal to independents who make up a majority of undecided voters right now. - It's a delicate balance for Kamala because she can't just be tough on the border, right? Polling shows that most Americans actually wanna hear a sort of split message that we're going to be tough, but we're also going to be generous.

to people who deserve our generosity. (bright music)

Trump and Harris’s Immigration Policies: 2020 vs. 2024 | WSJ

The Wall Street Journal takes you inside carefully selected stories and events in a visually captivating way so you can dig deeper into the news and insights that matter to you. 

The Wall Street Journal

이민에 대한 민주당의 입장 변화

2024년 민주당 플랫폼은 국경 보안을 강조하고 있으며, 이는 2020년에 비해 큰 변화입니다.

이제 두 정당 모두 유권자의 수요 증가에 대응하여 더 엄격한 국경 정책을 선호하고 있습니다.

국경을 넘나드는 사람들이 증가하고 망명을 통해 법적 보호를 받으려는 사람들이 늘어나면서 이민 수사에 변화가 생겼습니다.

미국 망명 신청은 처리하는 데 5~10년이 걸리는 등 미국 망명 시스템이 과부하가 걸리고 있으며, 이로 인해 신청 자격이 의심스러운 개인이 유입되고 있습니다.

국경 도시들은 이주민들을 피난처 도시로 버스로 수송하기 시작하여 주택과 자원에 부담을 주고 있습니다.

바이든 행정부의 조치는 월경을 줄이기 시작했고, 민주당은 이제 급증하는 이민자에 대응하기 위해 국경 보안에 우선순위를 두고 있습니다.

이민에 대한 민주당의 새로운 접근 방식

바이든이 이끄는 민주당은 이민 문제에 대한 해결책을 제시하는 정당으로 자리매김하기 위해 메시지를 바꾸고 있습니다.

2024년 국경 안보 법안에는 망명 절차의 속도를 높이기 위한 자원과 장벽 건설 자금 지원과 같은 전통적으로 보수적인 정책이 포함되어 있습니다.

해리스는 국경 안보 법안과 함께 시민권 취득 경로를 다루며 이민 및 기타 문제에 대한 온건한 입장을 표명할 계획입니다.

트럼프가 이민 논쟁에 미친 영향

트럼프는 이민을 일자리 감소, 범죄, 선거 공정성 등과 연결시키며 다양한 각도에서 이민 문제를 다루고 있습니다.

그의 수사는 이민에 대한 공화당의 입장을 재정의하여 불법 이민에 대해 더욱 회의적이고 우려하게 만들었습니다.

그러나 그의 극단적인 발언은 그의 정책을 지지하지만 그의 기질을 우려하는 온건한 공화당원과 무소속 유권자들을 소외시킬 위험이 있습니다.

민주당의 이민에 관한 균형 잡힌 법안

민주당은 더 엄격한 이민 정책으로 유권자들을 달래려 하고 있지만 이민자 권리 커뮤니티는 민주당에서 강하게 이탈하지 않고 있습니다.

카말라 해리스 후보의 국경에 대한 강경한 입장은 미결정 유권자의 다수를 차지하는 무소속 후보에게 어필할 수 있습니다.

여론 조사에 따르면 대부분의 미국인은 국경에 대해 강경한 입장을 취하는 동시에 도움이 필요한 사람들에게 관대함을 베푸는 두 가지 메시지를 선호하는 것으로 나타났습니다.