Tesla의 FSD 수익 및 향후 차량 호출 서비스 계획

### 차량 호출 서비스 부문에서 테슬라의 FSD 수익과 향후 전망
* 🚗 Tesla는 지난 분기 동안 사이버트럭의 FSD 출시에 힘입어 **3억 달러 이상의 FSD 매출**을 인식했으며, 이는 이미 제공된 기술에 대한 성공적인 수익 인식을 나타냅니다.
* 🔍 인상적인 매출 수치에도 불구하고 운전자 없이는 작동할 수 없는 FSD의 기능에 대한 우려는 여전히 크며, 이는 **Tesla의 중요한 과제**로 남아 있습니다.
* 📊 최신 버전의 FSD인 12.5에서는 주행감이 일부 개선되었지만 **정지 표지판을 통과하는 등의 문제**가 계속 나타나고 있어 추가적인 개선이 필요합니다.
* 🏛 자율 주행 기술에 대한 연방 규제를 모색한다는 엘론 머스크의 발언은 **테슬라의 운영 효율성에 도움이 될 수 있는 간소화된 승인 절차**에 대한 열망을 시사합니다.
* 📈 테슬라가 내년에 텍사스와 캘리포니아에서 **차량 호출 서비스를 출시할 가능성**이 있다는 것은 차량 호출과 완전 자율 주행은 별개의 개념이지만, 기술 수익화 쪽으로 전환하고 있음을 나타냅니다.
* 💰 이 회사는 기술 및 인프라에 대한 지속적인 투자에 맞춰 이전 예상치인 **100억 달러에서 약간 증가한 110억 달러의 자본 지출**을 계획하고 있습니다.
* 🖥 테슬라의 투자 중 상당 부분이 **엔비디아 칩에 투입될 것**으로 예상되며, 이는 단기적으로 **트레이닝 기능을 외부 기술에 의존하는 것**을 강조하는 것입니다.
* 🔗 전반적으로 FSD는 도전 과제를 안고 있지만, **규제 장애물이 제거된다면 향후 차량 호출 서비스와의 통합**은 Tesla의 상당한 수익 성장으로 이어질 수 있습니다.

Tesla의 FSD 기술은 매출 성장에도 불구하고 어려움에 직면해 있으며, 머스크는 배포를 용이하게 하기 위해 연방 규제를 추진하고 있습니다.

You actually largely cover semiconductors, and you're sort of focused on this work around AI that Tesla is doing. There was something that jumped out at me in the 10-Q that the CFO also mentioned, which was in the quarter gone, and Tesla recognized more than $300 million worth of FSD revenues. Now take that and tell me the story it gives you. Yeah. The story it gives me is that they released FSD on the cybertruck. So for cars that they've been selling for a little while, they can certainly recognize the revenue that they've already been paid for for that technology that they've already delivered and continue to deliver. So that's great. And, you know, look, I think FSD is an amazing technology, but, you know, if you've read my reviews or if you look at any of the many reviews on YouTube or other platforms, you can see that there

are known failure modes for this technology. It does not work in the sense that you can actually run it without a driver, and that continues to be a problem no matter what the 10-Q says. This is a real problem for the company. Have you seen any improvements, William, since last you were on to talk about some of those failings within FSD? Yes, we've reviewed three different versions of this. I think the I forget, which was the last time I was on your show to discuss it. But certainly this version, 12.5, which is the latest one that's broadly available to consumers, this is still one that doesn't work. Have there been improvements? Certainly, they mostly relate to the feel of the car in that it feels more humanlike, less herky jerky. But along with that, I think there have been some documented cases of rolling through stop signs and other, let's say, minor driving infractions that are more

human-like, but maybe not exactly what one is shooting for for a driverless car in terms of trying to maximize the safety. Okay. Not only William does he need to improve on the technology, therefore, it seems like you're still saying, despite the improvements. And what's so notable is they need the regulatory approval. This is where you drill in the extraordinary nature of one Elon Musk, because he's not only the CEO of Tesla, but he's also potentially going to have a political role and FSD regulation coming. Ed Yes. William What I wrote about last night was Musk did not cite the election directly and he did not name Donald Trump. But what he did say was that if there's going to be a Department of Government efficiency, he would like to work on nationwide or federal level rules for the deployment of autonomous technology on US roads, and which is as close to commenting on the election as I think you could get in the context of an

earnings call. What did you make of those comments? I think he's just making some fairly logical comments about what would be the simplest, most logical way to pardon me to regulate this technology. And at the federal level means you have one hurdle to clear instead of 50 individual ones. I don't interpret that as some, you know, super partisan view of the world. It's just something that would make his life easier and the life of Tesla easier. That's that's all I take. That is I think it's worth looking at as Uber and Lyft again. Right. Because the news for me that jumped out was this confidence that next year Tesla will offer some form of ride hailing in Texas and California. You've critiqued FSD. My question to you is based on those headlines that came out on Ride Hailing, are you better understanding the jump from FSD and consumer cars to this proprietary ride hailing service in the future?

So, a couple of things. First of all, I have a colleague that covers these ride-hailing stocks. I don't. But I think what should be relatively clear is these issues: a ride-hailing service and full autonomy are not the same thing. They are fairly separate. You know, this company could turn on this ride-hailing service, you know, assuming they get regulatory approval for it, without having FSD at all. And FSD is something that could come later and really has. Yeah. In a way that they're certainly complementary. And having both of them together could result in significant earnings growth for the company. But they're not perfectly linked ideas. They are separate. With William, the amount that they need to spend. I mean, whether or not they turn on that switch or not. And of course, that ultimately means whether you have a driver at the wheel or not. I'm interested as to whether you think

the upgrade. What is it to an 11 billion CapEx spend? Is what needs to be invested right now by the business. Oh, well, this is not a huge difference. Right? In the prior quarter, they guided this number to 10 billion. Now he's saying 11. Wasn't a whole lot different from our model. We have a similar CapEx number next year, I think, in a way. You know, this might be a sort of off-the-run remark, but I think the biggest winner out of this topic is Nvidia. You know, Musk emphasized how much they're spending on each 108, 100. Those are hopper generation chips from a video equivalent use and what they anticipate doing over the next year. This is a big investment in NVIDIA. These are this training capability does not come from their internal D1 chip or their dojo computer. It's going to be spent at least in the near term, at least for the next year. More spending with the NVIDIA.

Truist's Stein: Tesla FSD Is Amazing Tech But Has Failures

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Tesla의 FSD 수익과 현재 진행 중인 과제

테슬라는 주로 사이버트럭의 판매로 3억 달러 이상의 FSD 수익을 올렸습니다.

이 기술은 인상적이지만 여전히 운전자가 필요하고 알려진 고장 모드가 있습니다.

5에서는 주행감이 일부 개선되었지만 여전히 사소한 주행 위반이 발생하고 있습니다.

무인 자동차 기술 규제에서 엘론 머스크의 역할

엘론 머스크는 Tesla의 무인 자동차 기술을 개선하는 데 주력하고 있으며, 이를 배치하기 위해 규제 당국의 승인을 구하고 있습니다.

그는 규제 절차를 간소화하는 것을 목표로 자율 주행 기술에 대한 연방 차원의 규칙을 마련하는 데 관심을 표명했습니다.

텍사스와 캘리포니아의 차량 호출 서비스에 대한 머스크의 발언은 테슬라가 향후 이 시장으로 확장할 것임을 시사하며, 소비자 자동차에서 독점적인 차량 호출 서비스로의 전환에 대한 의문을 제기합니다.

차량 호출 서비스와 완전한 자율성의 차이점

차량 호출 서비스와 완전 자율 주행은 별개의 개념이며, 전자는 FSD 없이 출시될 가능성이 있습니다.

이 두 서비스는 상호 보완적이며 회사의 상당한 수익 성장을 견인할 수 있습니다.

라이드 헤일링 도입 결정과 무인 운전의 필요성은 서로 연결되어 있지만 완벽하게 연결되지는 않습니다.

이 기업의 자본 지출은 100억 달러에서 110억 달러로 증가했으며 내년에도 비슷한 수치가 예상됩니다.

머스크는 호퍼 세대 칩에 대한 지출을 강조하면서 이번 투자에서 가장 큰 수혜자로 엔비디아를 꼽았습니다.

적어도 내년에 이 사업을 위한 훈련 능력은 내부의 D1 칩이나 도장 컴퓨터가 아닌 엔비디아의 투자에서 주로 나올 것입니다.