미국의 마이그레이션 트렌드와 경제 변화

캘리포니아 엑소더스는 원격 근무가 텍사스, 플로리다와 같은 경제적인 주로의 이주를 촉진하여 경제 환경을 재편하는 방법을 강조합니다.

### 팬데믹 이후 미국의 이주 동향과 경제 변화
* 🌍 미국은 많은 미국인들이 캘리포니아 같은 주에서 남부의 더 저렴한 지역, 특히 **텍사스와 플로리다로 이주하는 등 상당한 이주 패턴**을 경험하고 있습니다.
* 📈 플로리다는 코로나19 발병 이후 **20%가 넘는 인상적인 증가율**로 미국에서 가장 빠른 GDP 성장을 보였으며, 텍사스는 **14%의 성장률**로 그 뒤를 바짝 쫓고 있습니다.
* 💼 두 주 모두 **일자리가 9% 증가**하여 유럽 중견 국가에 버금가는 빠른 경제 성장세를 보이고 있습니다.
* 🏞 아이다호, 유타, 애리조나, 콜로라도를 포함한 록키산맥 지역도 원격 근무 기회로 인해 번창하고 있으며, 이는 **상당한 GDP 성장과 일자리 증가**로 이어지고 있습니다.
* 🏙 반대로 북동부와 중서부, 특히 **일리노이와 뉴욕은 팬데믹 기간 동안 손실된 일자리의 회복이 미미**하고 **GDP 성장률이 저조**한 등 부진한 모습을 보이고 있습니다.
* 🏗 이러한 변화를 주도하는 주요 요인은 **뉴욕과 캘리포니아 같은 주의 제한적인 건축 규제**와 대조적으로 **더 많은 건축을 허용하는 주에서 주택에 대한 수요**가 증가했기 때문입니다.
* 💻 한때 캘리포니아에 집중되었던 기술 산업은 이제 **많은 기술 일자리가 더 저렴한 주들로 이전**하면서 분산되고 있으며, 이는 비용 상승 속에서 기술 인력을 유지하기 위한 캘리포니아의 고군분투를 강조합니다.
* 🔑 캘리포니아나 뉴욕과 같은 주에서는 경쟁력을 유지하기 위해 **주택 및 교통 정책을 개혁**하지 않으면 생활 여건이 더 나은 주로의 지속적인 이주를 감수해야 합니다.

since Co. There's been a lot of migration happening within the United States, and some areas are booming, and some areas are losing out. The California Exodus continues; cities are losing population as Americans are moving in mass to the South. You may have moved within your city or to a different city. You probably noticed some of your neighbors moving out or maybe moving in, and those shifts have really reverberated throughout the entire US economy in ways that are radically reshaping the geography of US jobs and the geography of US growth. So first, we're going to talk about where, then we're going to talk about when, why. Yeah, so first, we're going to talk about where, then we're going to talk about [Music] why. Some of the biggest beneficiaries of the post-pandemic economy have been states in the American South, and the two biggest examples of that are Texas and Florida. Florida actually has the fastest GDP growth of any state in the Union since the start of Co, more than a 20% increase. Texas is not far behind. They've

had a GDP increase of more than 14% since the start of COVID. Both those states have seen jobs increase by 9% overall. On their own, those states are the size of midsize European economies, and they're growing as fast as rapidly industrializing nations. For example, Texas' economy grew 5.6% through 2023. That's faster than even China, which only grew at 5.2%. By comparison, that's a lot for states as big as Florida and Texas. States in the Rocky Mountains have also seen really rapid growth. That includes places like Idaho, Utah, Arizona, and Colorado, which have seen extremely fast GDP growth and rapid job gains as remote work enables people to move to those states. On the Pacific coast, California has had very fast GDP growth, faster than the nation as a whole, even though the tech boom throughout the pandemic has really helped the state. It's lagged behind in terms of job growth. Washington state has also seen really rapid GDP growth, thanks in large part to the tech boom, but with a bit of stronger job growth than

California and Oregon lag a little bit behind. Both the Northeast and Midwest, by contrast, have been falling behind a bit. Illinois and New York, in particular, have only barely recovered the jobs that they lost during COVID and have had pretty weak GDP growth. There are some bright spots. Indiana's GDP has grown by more than 8% since the start of the pandemic, while Maine's has grown by more than 11%. But the region as a whole is struggling a bit. I'm trying to think, is there a big state that I didn't mention? Not really. Ohio, people will be mad at me, but that's fine. So, what's driving the shifts in economic geography? The big obvious one is remote work. Some of the biggest losers have been dense, urbanized, unaffordable areas, and some of the biggest winners have been less dense, suburban, more affordable areas. People, when given the flexibility to work, pick places that are more spacious suburban states than they did before the pandemic. That includes places like Utah and Arizona, but also places

like Maine. Keep in mind, affordability isn't set in a vacuum. Another big shift caused by the pandemic was migration to states that allow more housing construction than others. Housing construction is a big part of the reason why states like Florida and Texas are booming, and states like New York and California are struggling. Florida and Texas build tens of thousands more units a year than either New York or California. They're some of the fastest builders, even on a per capita basis, in the nation. Another important part of this is the dissolution, or at least the weakening, of a lot of economic clusters that dominated pre-pandemic America. For example, before the pandemic, about 19% of all tech jobs were located in California, and as soon as the pandemic hit, the share started dropping, and it started dropping really rapidly. And for some specific industries, like software publishing, it's near some of the lowest levels on record. Other industries are also spreading out from their historical hubs. Think finance from New York or movies from Los Angeles. But let's zoom in on

Tech in California, and in the Bay Area in particular, in early 2020 when the tech industry was booming, it didn't matter so much that California was losing ground to other states. The Bay Area had some of the fastest GDP growth in the nation, and hiring was still really rapid. But when the tech industry slowed down, as interest rates rose and the tech recession began, it meant California went from a smaller slice of a growing pie to losing outright. And the loss of tech jobs has cost California and the Bay Area a lot. The state depends on IPOs and tech pay for a lot of income tax revenue, and localities are really dependent on office space and other commercial districts for local sales tax and property tax revenue. That's drying up as more tech workers are leaving the Bay Area, and the big destination has been Texas, followed by New York, Florida, and Washington State, all states that have tech hubs of their own like Austin, like Seattle, like New York, but have had more affordable housing and built more than San Francisco itself. San Francisco has one of the

lowest construction rates in the country and is thus one of the most unaffordable cities on the planet. But despite losing ground to other states, California still has a really big advantage at the very top end of the tech industry. The best jobs, the best companies are still in Silicon Valley. California's problem isn't that it's economically unsuccessful; it's that it fails to include everyone in its economic success. The state's become so unaffordable that people have to leave for more accessible, less expensive locations. States like California and New York are going to have to reform a lot of their policies around housing construction and transportation if they want to compete in this new economy. And if they don't, the out-migration to states like Texas and Florida is only going to continue. Do you want to talk about any other states? You can't say anything about states without somebody getting mad at you and me, like, What about my home state? So, you got to accept that that's going to happen. Want to dive deeper? Become a Big Think member and join our members-only.

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Why Texas and Florida are America’s NEW economic powerhouses | Economist Joseph Politano

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미국 내에서는 캘리포니아에서 남부로, 특히 팬데믹 이후 가장 빠른 GDP 성장을 기록한 텍사스와 플로리다로 이주하는 사람들이 크게 늘었습니다.

텍사스와 플로리다의 일자리는 모두 9% 증가했으며, 경제는 유럽의 중견 국가들처럼 빠르게 성장하고 있습니다.

캘리포니아, 워싱턴과 함께 록키산맥 주 역시 원격 근무와 기술 붐에 힘입어 빠른 GDP 성장과 일자리 증가를 경험했습니다.

캘리포니아와 오리건은 회복이 더디고, 일리노이와 뉴욕은 일자리와 GDP 성장에 어려움을 겪고 있습니다.

반면 인디애나와 메인주는 팬데믹 이후 GDP가 크게 성장했습니다.

원격 근무로 인해 사람들은 더 저렴하고 넓은 교외 지역으로 이동했으며, 플로리다와 텍사스처럼 주택 건설이 많은 주에서는 뉴욕과 캘리포니아에 비해 호황을 누리고 있습니다.

캘리포니아에서 기술 산업의 경기 둔화가 미치는 영향

한때 호황을 누렸던 캘리포니아의 기술 산업은 심각한 침체에 직면하여 일자리와 소득세 수입의 감소로 이어졌습니다.

텍사스, 뉴욕, 플로리다 등 보다 저렴한 주들로의 기술 인력 이탈이 심화되었고, 캘리포니아의 낮은 주택 건설률도 캘리포니아의 경제성을 떨어뜨리는 요인으로 작용했습니다.

캘리포니아는 입지를 잃었음에도 불구하고 여전히 기술 산업의 최상위권에서 강력한 위치를 차지하고 있지만, 인재를 유지하고 새로운 경제에서 경쟁하기 위해서는 주택 및 교통 정책의 개혁이 필요합니다.

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