미국 경제, 테슬라 혁신, 소버린 AI 인사이트

미국 경제는 경기 침체 우려에도 불구하고 견조한 GDP 성장률과 긍정적인 고용 지표로 회복세를 보이고 있습니다.

### 경제 동향 및 투자 기회 분석: 미국 및 글로벌 인사이트
* 📉 특히 7월 이후 미국 경제의 경기 침체에 대한 우려가 팽배했지만, 최근 발표된 **2분기 GDP 수치는 약 3%의 성장률**을 보여 경기 침체 주장과는 상반된 모습을 보였습니다.
* 📊 ISM 제조업 구매관리자지수는 **50 미만**을 나타내며 제조업 관리자들의 잠재적 경기 침체 심리를 나타내는 반면, 서비스업은 **52로 여전히 긍정적**입니다.
* 💼 실질 임금 상승률이 예상을 상회하고 실업률이 낮은 수준을 유지하는 등 **고용 여건이 견조**해 국내 경제가 회복세를 보이고 있습니다.
* 🌏 특히 중국의 경제 상황이 여전히 불확실한 상황에서 미국과 중국에 대한 상호 의존성을 고려할 때 **미국 경제의 성과는 한국의 경제 건전성과 직접적인 상관관계가 없을 수 있습니다.**
* 🚗 테슬라의 미래는 자율 주행 기술과 에너지 솔루션의 발전에 달려 있으며, 곧 **로보택시와 배터리 기술에 관한 중요한 발전 사항**을 발표할 예정입니다.
* 📈 분석가들은 테슬라의 주식 가치에 대해 의견이 분분한데, 일부는 **상당한 성장을 예상**하는 반면 다른 분석가들은 주식의 변동성과 높은 밸류에이션을 반영하여 **주의를 권고**하고 있습니다.
* 🤖 한국과 같은 국가는 외국 시스템에 의존하지 않기 위해 자체 AI 모델을 개발해야 하기 때문에 **국가 안보와 기업 이익**을 위해 **소버린 AI의 중요성**이 강조되고 있습니다.
* 💡 특히 군사 및 제약과 같은 분야에서 AI 시장이 성장함에 따라 각국은 **장기적인 경제적, 전략적 이점**을 확보하기 위해 AI 역량에 투자해야 할 필요성이 분명해졌습니다.

Hello, customers. Today, I would like to discuss a few topics. First, let's touch on macro issues. The talk of a recession has been ongoing since the beginning of the year. There have been constant discussions about the poor state of the U.S. economy. In particular, in July, concerns about a recession became especially prominent, coinciding with the unwinding of the NKD trade. However, during that time, the U.S. GDP figures were quite strong. The estimated GDP growth for the second quarter was 2.88%, and the confirmed figure announced last week was close to 3%. Therefore, the claim that the economy is in recession is a blatant lie when we look at the current situation. Additionally, the estimates for the third quarter GDP are also gradually increasing. However, we need to look ahead.

The ISM Manufacturing Index, which can be considered an indicator, has a Purchasing Managers' Index where the benchmark is 50. Currently, indicators are coming in below 50. This suggests that purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, particularly in the United States, seem to be feeling a recession. On the other hand, the Purchasing Managers' Index for the service sector is still showing a figure of 52. Additionally, the United States has a high proportion of consumption contributing to GDP, so the real wage growth rate is also important. Employment conditions are crucial as well, as they support the domestic economy through employment and wages. Recently released figures for real wages have shown positive results, with wage growth rates exceeding market expectations. Furthermore, unemployment rate data was announced, indicating that last month...

On Friday, the announcement was made, and looking at the market forecasts, Hyunjeong's low estimate of 4.1% came out. Additionally, the non-farm payroll employment index was much better than expected. Furthermore, there were no indicators suggesting a recession in the claims for unemployment benefits or other areas. Good indicators continue to emerge in the employment sector, and the only indicator that raises concerns about a recession among the recent data from the past month seems to be the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers' index. In terms of domestic demand, the employment numbers and wages of employees show no signs of a recession, especially in the service sector, where numbers above 50 continue to indicate economic expansion. There are some observations of slight stagnation in consumer sentiment indices, but overall, the U.S. economy appears to be holding steady.

The outlook that the economy will regress and that there will be a contraction is somewhat premature at this point. Recently, in the U.S., there has been a resurgence of the no landing view, which suggests that there will be no contraction at all, as opposed to a soft landing, which indicates a gradual economic slowdown. We need to consider the implications of this on the asset markets. The forecast for interest rate cuts in the U.S. suggests that by the end of the year, the dot plot may indicate a drop to 4.4%. Given the current employment trends, reaching 4.4% would likely require two 25 basis point cuts, although I am starting to think that there may be only one cut. In that case, the economy-sensitive stocks related to the U.S. economy may not perform too poorly. Among the economy-sensitive stocks, those related to Asia still seem promising.

There are concerns about the competition with China and the need to remain cautious about the economic sensitivities. Just because the U.S. economy is doing well does not mean that the South Korean economy will automatically improve as well. Our dependence on the U.S. is nearly the same as our dependence on China. The influence of Southeast Asia, which is affected by China's economic dependence, has also significantly increased. Therefore, our economy is likely to be impacted by the Chinese economy. Recently, due to the Chinese government's direct intervention in the stock market with a 500 billion yuan issue, stock prices surged by nearly 20-25%. However, following the announcement of China's economic stimulus plan, which fell short of expectations, the Shanghai stock market is currently experiencing a 5% correction. Thus, the impact of the Chinese economy on our economic sensitivities cannot be ignored.

We need to continue the debate about the game, and while China's stock market was temporarily good, the macroeconomic situation in China is still not favorable. Recently, the Chinese government has introduced stimulus measures, and there are projections that the annual economic growth forecast will be raised to around 4.7 to 4.8. However, in the long term, I believe we are entering a less favorable period, and China is also heading into a phase of low growth. So, the most important thing for us is related to investments. How should we invest? I think cyclical stocks in the U.S. might not be a bad option. As for cyclical stocks in South Korea, they are likely to be influenced by China, so I think they will be neutral. 

First, we need to take a comprehensive view of Tesla as a company. I feel like this is the first time I'm talking about Tesla with you all. Tesla is now led by Elon.

Musk's newly created self-driving car, the ES, is focused on the solar energy industry, which is related to energy conservation and renewable energy, as well as climate change. If we continue to view Tesla solely as an electric vehicle company, it might not look so good as it enters intense competition. However, Tesla itself is talking about the autonomous driving sector as its future business area. They are expected to announce the RoboTaxi technology tomorrow, so we need to watch closely for the details of that technology. Additionally, we should check the level of progress in autonomous taxi technology at the event tomorrow. While we're at it, we should also keep an eye on their business plans regarding electric vertical takeoff and landing drones.

There are also other things, like how ES is doing things. Additionally, there are prospects that we might announce new technologies related to secondary batteries, which our citizens are very fond of. For instance, there are plans regarding the 4680 battery. How will we approach this? There are also new processes, like dry processes and wet processes. It seems that the dry process, compared to the wet process, could reduce costs by about 20% to 30%, making battery production cheaper. These technological advancements in such processes might be announced tomorrow. In any case, tomorrow will be crucial. We need to watch whether Tesla can obtain approval for autonomous taxis in China, and similar licensing issues in Europe. We also need to keep an eye on how much technology has progressed. Recently, Tesla's electric vehicle sales for this quarter are expected to be around 490,000 units.

There are about 6,000 units, and I made a slight mistake with a larger figure of 460,000, which has caused the stock price to adjust. However, our citizens seem to be quite pleased. Currently, Tesla's valuation is very high, with a price-to-earnings ratio exceeding 10. Even looking ahead to next year, the visibility of profits is decreasing, with ratios around 9, 7, or 8, which cannot be considered cheap. If the company produces six vertical takeoff and landing electric vehicles or implements full self-driving cars as a subscription model, or if they announce groundbreaking plans to increase earnings within the successful ES ecosystem, or achieve technological advancements, this would be a significant issue for Tesla enthusiasts. Among the companies traded in the U.S. market, Tesla has the highest trading volume.

NVIDIA has been fluctuating a lot lately, and its stock price has been rising. Consequently, NVIDIA has seen a high trading volume while Tesla has paused for a moment. The fact is, Tesla doesn't own any part of SpaceX; that is solely Elon Musk's company. Internally, Tesla aims to focus on autonomous taxi services, robot taxis, and humanoid robots. The corporate value associated with humanoid robots, along with the recent discussions about entering the new electric-powered flying vehicle market, contributes to a positive outlook on future growth among many Tesla enthusiasts. This optimism could potentially be reflected in the stock price. However, those who dislike high valuations in stocks will definitely...

I don't think we should buy stocks, but instead, I like stocks that have dreams. For those who see growth opportunities in areas like the robotic industry, humanoid robots, and vertical takeoff and landing drones, there could be a rise in stock prices depending on the new positive information that is announced. U.S. securities firms are giving conflicting evaluations. Most firms that focus on valuation have sell recommendations, with target prices around $180, $172, and some even suggesting a target price in the $120 range. On the other hand, firms that focus on growth have target prices of $220 and $230. If good forecasts come out regarding electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles, stock prices could soar. There are also expectations for the upcoming autonomous taxi robots.

The outlook varies greatly among analysts. Some brokerages believe it will perform very well, while others think it won't amount to much. European brokerages, particularly those in Germany, are saying that the content is not significant, advising investors to sell the stocks before the announcement. Therefore, for value investors, this stock is truly unpredictable. It's a stock that is very hard to understand, and on the other hand, those who focus on future growth find it difficult to comprehend the views of value investors. It seems to have transformed into a stock that is actively bought and sold. The relative position of the stock price has seen a rapid adjustment; it once rose to around $414 but dropped significantly to about $130 last year. Recently, it climbed to around $250, but has now slightly adjusted again to around $240.

I mentioned the valuation earlier, so should we invest now or not? I don't think we should heavily bet on it. For those who like growth, I believe it's fine to keep it on your watch list and observe. That's my thought. This week's topic is related to AI. Everyone, I have been studying the AI industry in South Korea very diligently and quickly. I've talked several times about Sovereign AI with you. Sovereign AI refers to creating distinctive AI models tailored to each country. Now, I want to discuss why Sovereign AI is important. Each country needs to build advanced military systems, political systems, and intelligence information systems that align with their national interests. For example, in our country...

국가 정보원이 미국에 있는 마이크로소프트의 클라우드를 이용해 오픈AI에 의존하여 정보를 수집하는 전략은 불가능합니다. 왜냐하면 우리의 정보가 고스란히 미국으로 넘어가기 때문입니다. 또 우리나라의 국방부에서는 전쟁 전략과 전쟁 시뮬레이션을 수행합니다. 예를 들어, 북한군이 침범했을 때나 이웃 나라의 적국이 남쪽으로 침투했을 때, 어떻게 군사 배치를 하고 어떤 무기를 출동시키며, 어떤 전력을 집중하고 예비군은 어떻게 운영할 것인지에 대한 작전 계획이 만들어져 있습니다. 이러한 계획들은 실행되어야 하는데, 지금까지는 사람이 직접 만들었습니다. 그리고 그 과정에서 가정을 만들기 위해 보상 훈련도 하고 실제 훈련도 하며 작전 계획을 계속 수정해왔습니다. 그러나 이제 AI가 그 모든 것을 대신하게 되면 한국의 국방부는...

While using Microsoft's cloud Azure, it's impossible to create a military operation plan without the help of open resources. Furthermore, from a corporate perspective, for instance, if Hynix is trying to design a new advanced semiconductor, they might want to receive some assistance from AI. Similarly, in the pharmaceutical industry, creating new drugs with AI has become a trend lately. Companies want to analyze protein structures using AI to develop new medications, but they can't rely solely on companies based in the United States. If AI is going to have an enormous impact on global industries, comparable to the second or third industrial revolution, then each country and the companies within them will need their own AI models to protect their national and corporate interests. Individuals are a bit different; whether they use Naver or Hyper Global, it depends on performance.

If we write something good, that's enough, but when security and confidentiality are necessary, we must resolve these issues within our own ecosystem. Therefore, we cannot rely on foreign AI data centers for national security, foreign policy, military strategy, intelligence gathering, and the development of new products and strategies. Each country must develop sovereign AI. Countries are gradually making efforts to develop their own AI, with the largest investments coming from the United States, followed by China. Our country is around fifth or sixth place, and the amount is not very large, with not much difference. Additionally, Middle Eastern countries, especially after the peak oil era, need to consider what resources they will rely on for survival as a long-term national challenge. If you observe the oil-producing countries in the Middle East, they have a great interest in solar energy. So, they are saying, We want to pursue solar energy too.

So, what’s good? Then we want to do that too, and we keep saying that. The reason is that someday oil will run out. Therefore, countries in the Middle East will inevitably have an increasing demand for sovereign AI due to conflicts. Many of those countries need to establish a system. Right now, Microsoft has secured about 150,000 GPUs, while our country has only around 2,000. Saudi Arabia has just over a thousand, and when you combine all the Middle Eastern countries, they have a similar amount. So, I believe that the GPU market will have a much larger demand than you might be concerned about. Sovereign AI will impact not only the artificial intelligence data market but also the edge computing market. I think we can secure a reasonable demand source for long-term growth. Therefore, regarding sovereign AI, I hope that you all will...

It would be good to know that, from a personal investor's perspective, there are no borders in global investments. For example, if I want to invest in a particular industry, say, I want to buy a company that produces ramen, the largest ramen producer is located in Japan. On the other hand, the fastest-growing companies are in South Korea. If I want to invest in a globally popular singer, I might consider someone like Taylor Swift, and I would need to go to where she holds shares. The same principle applies. If a company in the U.S. is better at AI than those in South Korea, that's where I should invest. Currently, the U.S. holds a dominant position, which is undeniable. Recently, there were many rumors regarding the delay of Blackwell's release. However, Microsoft is currently working on GB 200 to enhance their server capabilities.

They are building that expensive thing, and the biggest customers are American companies. HyperScale, their investment size is larger than that of companies in Korea, Japan, and Saudi Arabia combined. The amount Microsoft spends on GPUs is significant, so we must consider that they have more long-term energy. Right? You need to invest in the U.S. If I want to invest in artificial intelligence, there’s no other place to invest. That's how I see it. This week, I have taken a short break from our trend corner, but if there are any important macro changes or fundamental shifts related to investment ideas that come out in the next week, I will frequently share updates with you all.

테슬라 투자 시점은 언제일까? | 소버린AI 생태계 | 미국 고용지표 호실적 |  [10조 펀드매니저의 투자 뉴스 리뷰]

안녕하세요. 기업의 '업의 본질'과 미래 가치를 판단하여 투자하는 서재형 대표입니다.

앞으로 서재형의 투자교실 채널에서 여러분들께 '올바른 투자'방법을 전해드리고 싶습니다. 지금 세상에는 바르지 않은 투자정보가 난무하고, 이 안에서 헤메고 계신 투자자분들이 많이 계십니다. 수십 년간 투자사와 투자사 대표를 지내며 쌓아온 '리서치 베이스'의 기업 분석과, 지금까지 직접 투자하며 깨달은 인사이트를 전달드리고 싶습니다. 좋은 투자는 '많이 버는 것'이 아닌 '잃지 않고 꾸준히 투자하는 것'입니다. 여러분들께 주식이 '어려운 것'이 아닌 '쉬운 것'이라고 느껴지실 수 있도록 저의 경험을 나누고자 합니다.

도덕성이 많은데 전문성이 없으면 주식 계좌는 마이너스로 갑니다. 반대로 도덕성이 없고 전문성이 많으면 오히려 더 큰 손해를 입기 쉽습니다. 앞으로 제 채널에서 '진정성'과 '전문성'이 있는 진솔한 주식 이야기를 전하는 시간을 갖고자 합니다.

구독자분의 많은 관심과 사랑 부탁드립니다.
감사합니다.

- 서재형의 투자교실 채널의 모든 투자 정보는 참고 사항입니다. 투자의 최종 판단과 결정은 투자자 본인에게 있습니다.
**현재 어떠한 커뮤니티도 운영하고 있지 않습니다. 사칭에 주의하시길 바랍니다.

[약력]
연세대학교 경영학과 졸업
前) 국민은행 자금 증권부 주식운용 팀장
前) 미래에셋자산운용 투자운용 본부장
前) 대신자산운용 대표

[경력]
- 국내 펀드매니저 중 최초 1조원 이상 펀드 운용
- 국내 펀드매니저 중 최초 10조 이상 펀드 운용, 최대 12조 운용
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[비즈니스 문의]
- 비즈니스 문의: usjhhit@us-all.co.kr
* 본 메일은 비즈니스 메일입니다. 투자학교 학생으로 입학하시는 방법은 아래 문의처로 연락주시면, 1:1로 안내 드리도록 하겠습니다.

- 투자학교 신청 문의하기 : http://pf.kakao.com/_xgkxdxgxj/chat


서재형의 투자교실

미국의 경기 침체에 대한 우려가 계속되고 있지만, GDP 성장률의 견조한 수치는 이러한 우려를 반박하고 있습니다.

ISM 제조업 지수는 제조업 부문은 둔화되었지만 서비스 부문은 플러스 성장을 보이고 있습니다.

고용 및 임금 성장률 데이터도 고무적이어서 미국 경제가 안정적으로 유지되고 있으며 연말까지 금리 인하 가능성이 있음을 시사하고 있습니다.

중국과의 경쟁과 미국과 한국 경제의 상호 연결성에 대한 우려가 있습니다.

최근 중국의 주식 시장 개입과 경기 부양책이 글로벌 시장에 큰 영향을 미치면서 중국의 장기 성장에 대한 우려가 커지고 있습니다.

테슬라의 미래는 자율 주행과 재생 에너지로 옮겨가고 있는 것으로 보이며, 곧 주요 발표와 기술 발전이 있을 것으로 예상됩니다.

테슬라의 단위 수치가 약간 잘못되어 주가가 조정되었지만 시민들은 여전히 만족하고 있습니다.

테슬라의 높은 밸류에이션과 수익 가시성 감소는 우려를 낳고 있지만, 자율주행 서비스와 휴머노이드 로봇에 대한 집중은 긍정적인 성장 전망을 제시합니다.

미국 증권사들의 상반된 평가로 목표주가가 엇갈리고 있으며, 긍정적인 발표와 전망에 따라 주가 상승 가능성도 있습니다.

예측할 수 없는 주식과 소버린 AI의 중요성

애널리스트들 사이에서도 주식에 대한 전망이 엇갈리고 있으며, 유럽 증권사들은 발표 전에 투자자들에게 매도하라고 조언하고 있습니다.

이 주식은 가격 변동이 심해 가치주와 성장주 투자자 모두 이해하기 어렵습니다.

이제 논의의 초점은 소버린 AI로 옮겨져 각국이 특히 군사 및 정보 작전에서 국익에 부합하는 첨단 시스템을 구축하는 것이 중요하다는 점을 강조합니다.

AI를 활용한 군사 작전 계획 수립과 첨단 반도체 개발은 오픈 리소스 없이는 어렵기 때문에 각국이 자체적인 AI 모델 개발의 필요성을 강조하고 있습니다.

신약 개발과 단백질 구조 분석에 AI를 활용하는 추세는 미국과 중국 같은 국가를 중심으로 투자를 주도하고 있습니다.

자원 의존성이라는 장기적인 과제에 직면한 중동 지역에서도 장기적인 성장을 위해 GPU 시장에 대한 수요가 크게 증가하면서 주권형 AI에 대한 수요가 증가하고 있습니다.

글로벌 투자에는 국경이 없으며, 다양한 산업에서 다양한 국가에 기회가 있습니다.

현재 미국은 AI 및 기술 투자에서 지배적인 위치를 차지하고 있으며, Microsoft가 그 선두를 달리고 있습니다.

연사는 다음 주에 중요한 거시적 변화나 투자 아이디어에 대한 업데이트를 공유할 계획입니다.