미국 시장 전망: 도전 과제와 잠재적 반등 가능성

미국 시장의 높은 밸류에이션과 경제 불확실성은 안정적인 수익을 추구하는 투자자들에게 어려움을 안겨줍니다.

### 시장 인사이트 불확실성과 미래 예측 탐색하기
* 📉 시장은 반등할 것으로 예상되지만, 외부 의견에만 의존하는 것은 오해의 소지가 있으므로 **개인의 판단이 중요**합니다.
* 💔 미국 시장은 현재의 안정에도 불구하고 **금리 상승이 주택 소유자의 신규 부동산 구매 능력**에 영향을 미치면서 잠재적인 하락 조짐을 보이고 있습니다.
* 📊 수익률 곡선이 역전된 것은 근본적인 재무 문제를 나타내지만, **총부채원리금상환비율(DSR)은 안정적으로 유지**되고 있어 많은 사람들이 **높은 주택담보대출 금리**로 인해 신규 대출을 주저하고 있음을 시사합니다.
* 💰 부유층은 번창하고 다른 계층은 어려움을 겪는 미국 경제의 격차로 인해 **이자 지출이 증가**하여 금융 위기의 신호탄이 될 수 있다는 우려가 커지고 있습니다.
* 📈 미국 국채 발행 규모가 **8,000억 달러를 넘어설 것**으로 예상되는 것은 특히 다가오는 대선이 시장 역학 관계에 영향을 미칠 수 있다는 점에서 앞으로의 재정적 어려움을 시사합니다.
* 🤖 AI 혁명은 수익 창출의 기회를 제공하지만 지속 가능성에 대한 의문을 제기하며, 특히 **Nvidia와 같은 거대 기술 기업의 대규모 투자와 현금 흐름에 미치는 영향**에 대한 의문이 제기되고 있습니다.
* 📉 반도체 부문에서는 **급격한 가격 하락과 재고 과잉**이 수요 부족을 부각시켜 향후 회복 전망을 어렵게 하고 전반적인 시장 회복력에 대한 우려를 불러일으켰습니다.
* 🔍 현재 시장은 침체되어 있지만 잠재적인 반등 조짐이 있지만, 특히 앞으로의 경제 불확실성을 고려할 때 **명확한 추세가 나타날 때까지 신중한 투자 전략**이 권장됩니다.

I believe the market will rebound, but when it does, it's up to each individual to make their own judgments. There’s no reason to depend on my judgment, but it still seems quite challenging. Is there really a need to work hard in this market? As for the U.S. market, does that mean it’s good? No, there’s still a significant chance it could drop again. 

From now on, I can't predict the future, but if short-term interest rates come down quickly, it would alleviate the inversion. If this accelerates, it means something has gone wrong. The term inverted yield curve indicates that there are issues in the financial market. But, if there's no problem, then why is it not rising? I looked at the DSR in the U.S., and it seemed fine. Of course, the DSR is fine. But with mortgage rates going up, who is going to buy a house?

There are many people who say that since it's daytime, there's nothing to worry about in American stores. The reason I'm saying this is that quite a few people are arguing this point. When looking at the U.S. economy, what's frightening is that if you look at the chart in the middle, the interest expenditure relative to income has risen to almost a financial crisis level. What this means is that people in America are currently lacking money. So, this means that homeowners, as mentioned earlier, are not seeing their Debt Service Ratio (DSR) increase because there is no reason for them to roll over their homes and buy new ones. Since interest rates are high, they have no need to take on new loans, so they are just holding onto their current situation. Therefore, the DSR is not rising. On the other hand, those who are in urgent need of money are spending on bank interest, but their income is not supporting this, so the burden of interest expenditure is becoming significantly larger. This means that the wealthy are...

There is no problem, but poor people who couldn't buy meat earlier have to eat sausages. Why do you interpret this one statement in such an exaggerated way? You keep saying there are no problems based on the indicators. I feel that the U.S. economy is extremely divided right now; one side is struggling while the other has no issues. Up until now, the Democratic government has been pouring money into the economy. That’s why I mentioned the fiscal issue earlier. If there isn’t good cooperation on fiscal matters next year, it will be a headache. Perhaps that’s why, in the third quarter, the projected amount of U.S. Treasury issuance is expected to exceed $800 billion. This leads me to think that they plan to manage this until the presidential election. So, I believe they will manage to hold on until the second half of next year.

If Trump becomes the candidate, that's another issue. If Harris becomes the candidate today, many people would be thrilled. However, I personally think that from the perspective of the market, it wouldn't be that great if she becomes the candidate. The health sector, for instance, is often pointed out as having weaknesses, particularly in finance. Being from a background in inspection, there are these concerns. Anyway, there’s a way to overcome all this. The AI revolution could truly become a production revolution, leading to significant profits. However, the fundamental issue in our market is that the AI revolution, as discussed in the Gartner cycle, is something we can’t pinpoint exactly. People keep asking about it, but there's still confusion. The 2000s IT bubble is where this confusion stems from.

All the sectors, including telecommunications, have dropped together, but this time Nvidia is making money while Naboo is not. Nvidia's sales are actually significant for big tech. The costs are very high due to the massive investments, so I'm concerned about how they will cover these capital costs. As you know, they are rapidly pushing for expansion starting next year. Because of the heavy investments, when I asked people in the field, they said it takes about three to five years. This is originally short. People often misunderstand and get confused about this, but three years is a lot. I was surprised; I didn't know that. I was shocked when I saw the capital costs this time. This is the capital cost for Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta, and if this continues, their cash flow will be severely impacted.

I made an investment. With these investments in AI-related areas, people are spending money to earn profits, which justifies the companies' existence. If they can't make money, then their earnings per share have not increased compared to the previous quarter. If they can't make money, what will happen? There will be pressure on their margins. Why should only they succeed? Right now, there’s no guarantee, so NVIDIA will be under scrutiny, and AMD might also face challenges. There will definitely be fractures within the industry. No matter how much Jensen Huang shouts, the question is being raised: if your client companies can’t sustain themselves, then this logic arises. Recently, I found the structure to be quite amusing; I briefly held the number one spot in market capitalization. To put it simply, they are a supplier company, and they provide products to companies that create finished products.

The company's market capitalization has indeed increased. When Apple makes money, this is what happens. Yes, we need to buy the new phone that Apple just released. I think sales will increase. From my experience using Apple products, there seems to be a slight increase in replacement demand. The speed of this change has become important. Ultimately, it is up to the final consumers. 

We have talked a lot about AI laptops recently. When looking at the inventory, I mentioned in a previous lecture that I gave in the semiconductor field, there was a person who seemed to be quite older and asked a question. They were only looking at Samsung Electronics. There are so many shareholders of Samsung Electronics. I made some unfavorable comments. However, I said that in the long run, it might be okay to hold on to it. I shouldn’t say more.

The situation here is concerning. Our market is currently facing challenges. If this continues, memory prices will rise as legacy products are phased out, but sales are not improving. The problem is that semiconductor companies have already taken drastic measures. I have some knowledge in this area, and it's quite troubling. The issue is not just about the current performance reports; whether the figures are down by one or two trillion won, will that really affect the market? Do foreign investors sell based on those numbers? People are looking at the market over the last two months. There is a lack of a killer app right now. This needs to change. In fact, after Apple announced its intelligence updates, foreign selling in semiconductors has increased significantly. Are you paying attention to that? It’s likely to continue this way. However, I’m starting to wonder if it’s worth investing a lot of money in this sector.

Ultimately, this is a problem of burden. Here, the recovery is quite long. The reason for this is that we expected a supply shortage on the market. There were many discussions about the anticipated supply shortage, primarily because we moved beyond HBM, which led to a reduction in production. We had all sorts of theories, but the reality was that prices even started to drop. Recently, fixed prices have collapsed; for instance, the price of DRAM has plummeted. As prices have fallen, inventory has started to surge. However, how surprising it is that it fell this drastically! Nobody knew it would turn out this way. Until the third quarter, everyone believed it would keep increasing. Looking back, I think it was strange when Samsung declared emergency management back in May, especially with the announcement over the weekend. It seems that internally, things had become more serious than expected. They probably knew more than we did. But now...

The problem is that, given the current market conditions, I can't say for sure. I can clearly state that I don't think Samsung will win the market next year. I want to emphasize that the semiconductor cycle was originally expected to peak in the first and second quarters of next year, but if we consider that it leads by six months, it seems to have broken in the fourth quarter of this year. This year, the third quarter also fell short of expectations, and there's a feeling that things are accelerating. It's true that we have entered the latter half of the semiconductor sector, but if this continues, it will be quite difficult for our market to open up significantly. So, please don't ask questions like this tomorrow. I can't do anything about that. What is clear is that this sector doesn't seem to have the rapid recovery resilience it used to have. The reasons for this need to be identified by sector managers or others, not by me.

The most concerning thing is, despite everything, I will still hold on for now. This year, the situation is at this level because the players are still coming up. When the market is on the rise, our stock market doesn't break down significantly. If it’s fast, it could be in November, and if it's slow, it might be January when it turns around. That's when it gets worrisome. I still expect that this year will maintain a boxed range, but in this situation, there is no reason to forcefully invest in stocks. There are times when you need to work hard, and for a proper buy the dip strategy to work, the situation needs to worsen. Right now, I don't feel like it's at that level of deterioration. If that's the case, the recent low from 2022 was a PBR of about 0.83 to 0.84, which is around 2,370. Last time, it held at that level, so that level is quite significant.

It seems like we might hit a bottom, but the strength of the rebound is that before it was around 2800, and now it seems to be heading towards about 2600 or 2700. I think this is the kind of market we're looking at. I mentioned it briefly, but it’s been a while since I’ve come back, and perhaps the things you are most looking forward to in the market are really not that significant; you can just pick and choose well. I personally like that style. However, for that to happen, all other conditions need to be ripe, and just looking at the data I presented today, it's still in progress. That's what's concerning right now. But the truly surprising thing is that the index is down, which is quite alarming for me. Honestly, if it had been higher, I would feel more comfortable, but at 2500, I can’t really suggest selling here. It seems like we should be buying, but honestly, there’s not much excitement in that.

If that's the case, is there really a need to work hard in this market? The U.S. market, is it really good? No, there's still a lot of room for it to drop, right? In Korea, it's already come down, so there's less space to drop now. The U.S. isn't cheap right now. So, apart from everything else, when looking at U.S. stocks, there are significant concerns about specific stocks for next year. Many people say you just need to focus on technology. I've heard that a lot. I sold my Tesla shares back then, and I was happy about it. But holding onto Tesla shares doesn't guarantee anything, and that's the problem. Anyway, if we think of the market as solving a math problem, I've said this elsewhere, but many people find it strange that the math problems are presented easily.

You can get a high score when the difficulty is at a certain level. If I perform well, I still receive a good score. If we look at the profits, people seem to enter when the difficulty is high and work hard. There are people who make money, but they may not have the ability to solve math problems. The most common statement is that the market is stagnant. Well, that's true for institutions, but individuals don't necessarily need that. 

I believe the market will rebound, but when it does, it's important to have your own judgment. There’s no reason to depend solely on my judgment. The reality is that the situation still seems difficult, and there was a significant drop without any apparent reason. However, now there are very valid reasons for this decline, and I have come to understand the reasons behind it.

It's very positive. Now we still have room for a counterattack, but the problem is that the progress doesn't seem to have advanced much. I'm really curious to ask our representative about this. If we look at the average in the U.S. market over the past ten years, it was around 17 times, but now it's 25 times, right? Of course, the companies representing it all have high valuations because their earnings have increased significantly. However, the issue is that their shareholder return rate is 90%. That's understandable. What I mean is that they are really maximizing their profits. So, there is no room for shareholder returns here. The fact that the valuation has gone up to 27 times is because they are doing a great job with shareholder returns. If you hold onto it, you keep receiving dividends, and considering all of this, the asset value appreciation is...

Okay, all of that is because of the reasons we've discussed. Yes, the company is buying back shares and burning them. However, we have reached a point where there is not much more to give. Historically, the valuation is at its highest level, and as you mentioned, there is a possibility of an economic recession in the United States. Looking at the previous stages, we saw a rush of foreign investments flowing into the U.S., which increased the value of the U.S. dollar and raised U.S. stock prices. If we look back to just before the Great Depression in 1929, European funds were pouring into the U.S. around 1926 and 1927, which is quite frightening. So, it’s natural to think it could happen again. Now, after a significant adjustment, if we look at a five-year chart, it shows that we are at a historic peak. There aren’t many dips in the chart; it’s mostly been rising.

Well, then how should we look at this? You pointed out the exact point, but one of the most surprising events for investors this year is that at its peak, Warren Buffett significantly reduced his stake in Apple. He cut it by half. Apple hasn't sold or bought anything; it's just been fluctuating. Now, another surprising point is that it was only good for the U.S. Other people, including those in our country, sold domestic stocks and bought U.S. stocks. Now that U.S. stocks have risen, they have become expensive. So, did everyone buy? The problem is that the changes are so drastic. That's why I mentioned the dollar earlier. Despite the U.S. economy being in such good shape and having no issues, something is causing cracks, which is why the dollar is weakening and gold is strengthening.

The situation is being pointed out, but the problem is that the funds that have been invested are not likely to be withdrawn easily. People are hesitant to take their money out of the U.S. Instead, they are targeting the surrounding areas. Right now, they are hitting our country and Japan. Once this is all over, they will likely turn their attention to the U.S. as well. At that point, will they stop? Korea is actually at a standstill right now, but the frustrating part is that we cannot assess the situation accurately. We can never know the scale of the funds; no one has that information, so we cannot provide a clear answer. However, one thing we do know is that, surprisingly, a lot of the loans exist in various forms. There are indeed a lot of loans. I was actually shocked today when I heard that they are planning to break through 140. Foreigners are not...

Living is what it is, I mean. So, really, what I'm continually feeling is that the dollar is weakening in the U.S. market. It's not just about the weakness of the dollar; they're starting to sell from the edges, from the outskirts first. They’re trying to gather cash here. Many people do this, but let’s say there’s a fund. They’ve seen their stocks drop, and they think they want to hold onto this long-term. However, this can't last because they will start selling from the periphery to put money into it. One day, if it drops, that’s when it becomes really scary. And often, they buy stocks using bonds as collateral. The scariest part is not knowing how much leverage these guys are taking on. So, I always say that bondholders are almost like characters from a science fiction movie.

We are talking about martial arts novels. The world of bonds is somewhat absurd, but the same goes for stocks. However, one thing that must be maintained in the stock market is that you have read a very important key point: in the end, all we can rely on is trust. This is where the dilemma lies. Another issue is that when we look at value, how do we consider that chemical stocks have a price-to-earnings ratio of zero? This creates a complex situation in our minds. In the U.S., there are growth stocks, so if you acknowledge their value, it can be justified. The data that emerges from this is that until last year, M7 had a growth rate that was increasing, while the S&P was low, but now M7 has decreased. In other words, the rate of profit increase has changed compared to last year.

It seems that there is a problem because, looking at the second quarter, sales have increased, but earnings per share have not. So, the issue is that while growth is being maintained, the growth rate has declined, and this has been confirmed. With this confirmation, companies that had piled up semiconductor inventory are now realizing the severity of the situation. In other words, the end manufacturers are thinking that they need to sell this at a lower price to move the products. They need to sell everything cheaply now. This means that consumer spending related to the economy is not selling as well as expected, and this concern is gradually starting to weigh on us. However, even while thinking about this, when we look at our market index, it feels like there's no point in falling further. The valuation in Korea was down to around 0.8, and now the concern is about the electronics sector.

사면 얼마 갈까 고민이 되는 거죠. 사람들이 2년, 3년 투자하면 된다고 얘기하지만, 내가 봤을 때는 아까 고민스러운 거, 정말 좋은 회사인데 왜 이렇게까지 지금 단계에 와 있나 하는 고민을 하지 않을까요? 지금 가격은 적자 프라이싱이 막 시작되는 느낌이거든요. 최소한 한 분기, 내년도 한 분기는 적자일 것 같다는 생각이 들 정도였으니까요. 생각해 보면, 3자가 그로스 레이트 자체를 믿음이 안 가니까요. 저는 그래요. 사석에서는 지난 월에 3자 임원들 토요일 근무 시킬 때부터 뭔가 문제가 생기구나, 여기가. 그렇잖아요. 주말에 일시키고 하면 이게 문제 있는 거 아닌가요? 진짜 생각을 오래 하셨잖아요. 아주 급한 상황이 아니면, 아니면 보고하려고 하거나 요즘은 임원들도 사실은 주말에 있어요.

People want to, yes. It wasn't there at all from the beginning, but anyway, today I just spoke in a way that felt comfortable for me. You can understand that there are people like me, such as those who work with protractors. So, we are in a dilemma; the price of Korean stocks is something we have to stick with, but when this storm comes, how much will people struggle? These are the concerns we have. As humans, we should always be buying stocks for the long term. Homo sapiens are the ones that survive by fleeing from predators. So, what I'm saying is not to always run away, but when you hear the sound of a recession, which is like the footsteps of a predator, it’s better to flee a little. And when the recession deepens, that’s the best time to buy stocks because the prices are the lowest. Right now, we are unsure whether we are entering a recession or not.

I might not go there. It's scary to place a bet here to the extent that I would stick my butt down, considering the volatility risk I mentioned earlier. And it may not even be a beast, so if it’s not a beast, then it could just turn around immediately. I think the possibility of that happening is quite high. I had that thought, but the reason why that thought is gradually fading is that there’s a feeling that something is going wrong at the corporate level. If you look at the upcoming earnings reports, doesn’t it feel a bit off? I definitely feel that way about the U.S. In Korea, the consensus had risen too much and now it’s starting to adjust. Yes, once the consensus starts to go down, the representatives will likely be troubled about why the consensus is being lowered. It’s going to be urgent for the sector.

The representatives are saying that it seems like the market will be around the early 10s, possibly 11. But if it reaches 11, does that mean it's a good sign? I’m not sure, as it doesn't feel like the right situation. It feels more like a concern for next year. Right now, they haven't been looking at stocks for the past two months, thinking about next year and taking actions for some changes. If not, then why are foreigners selling so much? It seems like they're selling here to invest elsewhere, possibly to replenish cash. Maybe they find American stocks more attractive, and they might be trying to hold on to American assets. From my perspective, this is not something I can just dismiss; it’s a fact. The market is too high, and if the difficulty level is high, it means that if I have exceptional skills, I can solve complex math problems easily. But right now, the exam questions are...

If you don't have the confidence, wouldn't it be better to minimize participation as much as possible? In the past, it was always fine when the PBR band was around 0.8 or 0.7. Positively, if it continues this way, we should buy again if it comes back to around 2,400 in the second half of the year. That hasn’t changed. The rebound is something we all understand. So, I need to start thinking about the reasons for the rebound. We all know that a rebound is coming. What are we doing now? We should hold for at least another year and a half. But how are we going to do that? We will hold on for the next one or two years. The upper space is not very clear, and the U.S. could falter. That’s the concern. We should buy during the rebound, but I can’t say, If it breaks 2,400, buy, and if it goes to 2,550 or 600, reduce. I can’t discuss that. Some misunderstandings arise when I look at things very briefly.

There are times when I get caught up and have to enter the market, and there are also times when I need to sell and go back up. But right now, it’s not that time; it’s a tricky period, and that’s what’s troubling me. Yes, today you provided a lot of insights, which I really appreciate. But it’s not just insights; I came here in a hurry and am leaving just as quickly. We are also always confused about this. I mean, what should we do about the U.S. market? I really want to convey this: everyone is struggling. The difficulty level is high. Not long ago, I was somewhere and mentioned reducing participation in the stock market, and someone reacted dramatically. This is because Peter Lynch always said to stay in the stock market. I’m just speaking comfortably today, but I thought it would be different. When the predator approaches, the economic situation...

When you buy it, you don’t know what it is. You could get bitten to death, so it’s better to wait a bit, right? Yes, that’s what I wanted to convey. I understand. Our representative Yoon Joo was on-site and also directly participated in the practice. To put it simply, he has dipped his feet into the water, so his perspective is a bit different. Of course, he has the theory, but he also has practical experience. So, I think it would be much more helpful for you to consider that when you listen. I’d like to thank our representative Yoon Ji-wook for providing valuable insights today, and I also want to express my gratitude to all the viewers who joined us at this time. Thank you.

지금은 일시적인 반등구간! 지금은 주식을 쉬는 게 답이다? | 윤지호 대표 #2 [투자Insight]

증시각도기TV

시장 반등은 불확실하며 개인의 판단이 중요합니다.

단기 금리와 역전된 수익률 곡선은 잠재적인 금융 문제를 나타냅니다.

미국 경제는 분열되어 있으며, 이자 지출 증가로 인해 많은 사람들이 재정적 부담을 느끼고 있고, 정부의 재정 정책과 잠재적 대선 후보가 불확실성을 더하고 있습니다.

엔비디아의 독보적인 입지와 업계 과제

통신을 비롯한 다른 기술 분야가 어려움을 겪고 있는 반면, 엔비디아는 현재 상당한 수익을 올리고 있습니다.

사업 확장을 위한 막대한 투자로 인해 자본 비용 충당에 대한 우려가 커지고 있으며 수익 창출에 대한 압박이 가중되고 있습니다.

반도체 산업은 메모리 가격 상승과 킬러 앱의 부재로 인해 해외 판매가 증가하고 시장의 불확실성이 커지는 등 어려움에 직면해 있습니다.

반도체 시장은 예상치 못한 공급 부족과 가격 급락, 특히 DRAM의 가격 하락으로 인해 회복이 길어지고 있습니다.

지난 5월 삼성의 비상경영 선언은 예상보다 심각한 내부 상황을 보여주었습니다.

시장의 급격한 하락과 재고 급증으로 인해 2,370선이 바닥일 가능성이 있는 등 불확실성이 커졌지만, 전반적인 회복 탄력성은 약해 보입니다.

미국 시장에 대한 우려와 인사이트

미국 시장은 여전히 하락 여지가 있는 반면 한국 시장은 이미 하락했습니다.

내년 미국 특정 주식에 대한 우려가 커지고 있으며, 기업의 높은 밸류에이션으로 인해 주주 수익률 제공 능력에 대한 의문이 제기되고 있습니다.

시장의 역사적 고점과 경기 침체 가능성으로 인해 과거 외국인 투자 동향이 반복될 가능성에 대한 우려가 제기되고 있습니다.

투자 및 미국 경제의 놀라운 트렌드

워런 버핏이 애플 지분을 크게 줄이면서 투자자들의 경계심이 높아진 반면, 미국 증시의 상승으로 밸류에이션이 비싸졌습니다.

달러 약세와 금 강세는 미국 경제의 근본적인 문제를 나타내며 투자자들이 한국, 일본 등 주변 지역을 노리고 있습니다.

투자 자금 규모에 대한 명확한 정보가 부족하고 채권 보유자들의 레버리지 사용으로 인해 상황은 더욱 복잡해졌습니다.

주식 시장에서의 신뢰의 부조리

주식 시장의 신뢰에 대한 의존도는 특히 주가수익비율이 0인 화학주에서 딜레마를 야기합니다.

M7의 성장률이 감소하면서 소비자 지출의 효과에 대한 우려와 기업이 재고를 더 낮은 가격에 판매해야 할 필요성이 제기되고 있습니다.

시장의 밸류에이션과 전자 부문의 어려움으로 인해 투자의 지속 가능성과 성장률의 신뢰성에 대한 의문이 제기되고 있습니다.

연사는 잠재적 경기침체 우려 속에서 한국 주식 투자의 딜레마에 대해 이야기합니다.

장기 주식 투자의 중요성을 강조하며 경기 침체가 최고의 매수 기회가 될 수 있다고 말합니다.

그러나 다가오는 기업 실적 발표와 최근 외국인 투자자들의 매도 추세에 대해 우려를 표명하며 미국 주식으로 관심이 옮겨갈 수 있음을 시사합니다.

신뢰도가 낮을 때는 시장 참여를 최소화하고, 가격이 2,400선 전후로 회복되면 다시 매수하는 데 초점을 맞추는 것이 좋습니다.

연사는 적어도 1년 반 이상 보유하는 것이 중요하다고 강조하는 한편, 미국 상단의 불확실성과 잠재적 흔들림을 인정합니다.

이 토론은 많은 사람들이 주식 시장을 탐색하는 데 직면하는 어려움과 혼란을 강조하며 이론적 관점과 실제적 관점을 모두 고려할 것을 촉구합니다.