The revised segment is as follows: 

The revised segment is as follows: 

In the revised section of the electric car market, when you look closely, it is not the overall weakness of electric cars but rather the weakness of Tesla that stands out. Excluding Tesla, the sales of electric cars from major traditional car manufacturers have increased significantly. If you look at the actual sales data for the 23rd quarter, the growth rate is very steep. With a variety of electric cars coming out in different regions and price ranges, Tesla's market share is inevitably declining. Including Tesla, the growth rate is only 11% as of the last year, but when excluding Tesla, the growth rate for XX is 56.1%. Especially considering that new electric cars from North American car manufacturers like GM and Stellantis will be launched in the second half of this year, we can expect a significant impact in the second half.

The North American electric vehicle market could grow steeply. Global market leaders are setting their sales targets. We have looked into a few companies to research their sales targets. In the second half of the year, I expect a significant increase in sales, boosting performance. This growth is expected not only in electric vehicle sales but also in the K battery industry. It seems that an important catalyst for performance growth and stock price increases will be created. From a global perspective, companies like Stellantis, Hyundai, GM, Volkswagen, Ford, and Toyota are planning to release and sell dozens of electric car models by 2030.

So, you need to refer to these trends and ultimately, it's a trend that you can't help but follow. I would like to talk about this a little bit, especially when you look at Hyundai Motor. If you look at it briefly, you might not know, but if you look at it in detail, from the e-models in 2019, when you go to 25 years, next year there will be 16 models plus alpha, more than that, launching and selling those models. So, what was expected to be 60,000 units in 2019 will be over 560,000 units in 2025. This is how they are planning now. So, if you look at the electric car market now, I want to emphasize once again, if you look closely at the electric car market, especially in the North American market, it is very important for the Korean battery industry. If you look at the trends in the North American market, it can be seen that it is not a downturn in the overall electric car market, but rather a downturn in Tesla. In fact, Bloomberg now

Recently, if you look at the news that has been reported, companies like GM in the automotive industry are now continuing mass production preparations, and the slump of certain companies like Tesla has been overinterpreted. This is the analysis that was presented. Therefore, Bloomberg reported that among the top six electric car sellers in the United States, the first-quarter sales showed a sharp increase compared to the same period last year. According to the investigation results by Cox Automotive and Bloomberg Green, companies like Hyundai, Kia, Ford, Rivian, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Toyota recorded a growth rate of over 50%. When I already explained the first-quarter sales situation, I mentioned that Tesla was underperforming, but since Tesla holds nearly half of the North American electric car market, when I look at the statistics including Tesla, it seemed quite sluggish, but excluding Tesla.

The sales of electric cars from major car manufacturers have increased significantly. Tesla's growth rate is now at 13.3%, Volkswagen has experienced a decrease of 12.2%, and GM has had a temporary decline of 2.5%. Analysts interpret this slowdown in electric car sales as a temporary phenomenon. Despite Tesla's slow start due to some technical issues like GM and supply delays caused by incidents like the semiconductor shortage, the overall trend in the electric car market shows rapid growth for most car manufacturers, excluding these temporary setbacks. If you look at the chart on the right side...

Just because of the temporary weakness in EV sales, you should just consider it as a temporary stagnation, a temporary weakness. So in fact, the actual sales data for the 4th quarter of 2023 will increase on highways, according to the International Energy Agency's forecast. If you look at it that way, even if you look at the 4th quarter of this year or the 4th quarter of next year, it will actually meet those expectations. Then, it will continue to grow significantly. Especially, if you look at the growth rate from this year to next year, it will be very steep. If you mistakenly think that this temporary phase is the end, that's just foolish. Looking at the U.S. May sales data, the growth rate of pure EVs increased by 11% compared to the same period last year.

The growth rate of vehicles like PHEVs seems to be high, but the growth rate of BEVs was a bit low in the first quarter, around 5%, and now it has increased to 11%. Looking at the growth rates compared to the same period two years ago, Toyota is at 203%, Kia at 127%, Nissan at 82%, GM Group at 80%, Hyundai Kia combined at 77%, Ford at 65%, Hyundai alone at 45%, BMW Group at 23%, Audi at 16%, and the industry average is now at 11%. Tesla is still in negative growth, Volkswagen is also in negative growth, and Rivian is continuing its production. On the other hand, Mercedes-Benz is stubbornly focusing on selling batteries to China, which is causing a lack of popularity and sales, especially in the electric vehicle sector. Tesla, excluding the Tesla Model, is still in a growth phase.

What about it? First of all, looking at the comments of Kim Cheol-jung, in May, the pure electric car sales data continue to show that Tesla is still catching up. Except for the Cybertruck, overall sales of Tesla models are weak. Despite this, the Cybertruck's sales are gradually increasing as production increases. It means that it is being produced and sold. It seems that existing traditional car manufacturers are unable to increase production as quickly as they did. So far, Tesla has led the overall electric vehicle market, especially in North America. Tesla has been a great company that has led the electric vehicle market and accelerated the trend of electric vehicle conversion. It should be highly praised. However, now it is at a turning point. Tesla has been leading the overall market so far.

Can they continue to dominate the electric car market and ignite more than 50% of electric car sales? It's difficult. Moreover, if you look now, when you cross the section to the Cadillac area, take a look at the models being sold like Tesla. They only have two models, Model Y and Model 3. With these two models, they use batteries, adjust prices slightly by region, and change policies back and forth. They are trying to sell them somehow, but with just these two models, especially in the North American car market, which has a much greater desire for a variety of cars than Korean people, it's not a proper response to have only two models. Furthermore, in the North American car market, SUVs and pickup trucks occupy almost 80% of the market share. Model 1 is not actually a proper SUV. How can they satisfy a truly diverse range of customers with these two models?

Can you meet the desire of sleeping customers? No, you can't. So, in this situation, now the mainstream automakers, who are latecomers to the electric vehicle conversion, are now jumping into the market. These mid- to low-priced electric vehicle models are being released one after another. Furthermore, not only mid- to low-priced electric vehicles, but also, for example, when you see something like GM's Cadillac Lyriq, the design and everything are said to be very beautiful. Various types of electric vehicles like these will continue to come out in the future. As existing mainstream automakers produce high-quality electric vehicles in various styles and at various price points, Tesla's market share can only decline. This is inevitable. On the other hand, not only Tesla but also Kia's EV 3, or GMA Ekis, are hitting the market.

Other electric car models need to come out, and as a result, the scope of electric cars expands. Yes, as other electric car models come out, the electric car market overall grows, and the battery market also expands. And in that direction, I believe we are heading in the right direction, even though it may feel like a temporary adjustment period right now, we are doing well. In the big picture, we are responding well. The industry sees it that way. Next, in May, attention is drawn to the improvement in GM's electric car sales. As I mentioned earlier, the Bolt EV had a slow start, but from June onwards, six new electric car models are being introduced. Therefore, the annual sales target of 200,000 to 300,000 units is not being reduced, and the models to be introduced in the future are likely to be models using Ultium batteries. So, as GM models are expected to sell a lot, as I have been explaining since the beginning of the year, this year...

I mentioned that the sales of GM electric car models are very important because they are directly connected to LG Ensol's performance. So, starting from February, the sales volume is likely to increase. Next, Hyundai-Kia is very competitive. Currently, they are selling the second most electric cars after Tesla. I think Hyundai-Kia's strong sales are largely based on the Korean battery industry. Of course, Hyundai-Kia introduced an e-exclusive platform relatively early and has been producing good models with good cost-effectiveness, such as EV3 and EV9, which have received a lot of praise worldwide. While producing such models, on the other hand, as you saw with the AV3 earlier, they are relatively inexpensive through joint ventures with LG Ensol.

In terms of cost-effectiveness, now they are competing by installing batteries. From my perspective, Hyundai and Kia are expected to achieve a significantly high market share in the future in the automotive industry. Tesla has only grown by 11% including Tesla, but excluding Tesla, the growth rate is 56.1% as of last year. The automotive market matures as the year progresses from the first quarter to the fourth quarter. Typically, the sales volume is lowest in the first quarter and gradually increases towards the fourth quarter. Considering the rapid growth of electric vehicle sales excluding Tesla in May, and looking at the new electric vehicles from North American car manufacturers like GM and Stellantis, especially in the second half of this year.

When I think about it, if Tesla is expected to play a certain role in the second half of the year, it will likely recover consistently. For example, in the second half of the year, the growth rate of electric cars overall could increase significantly. I think it's called the Cathie Wood section. Yes, I think the Cathie Wood section is almost coming to an end. Especially looking at the data for May today, it was similar to April. So, seeing this kind of data until May, I feel that if things continue like this, in the second half of the year, the Cathie Wood theory could really see a rapid growth in the North American electric car market. Thoughts like this came to my mind. People who cannot read this kind of trend and just compare it, saying it only grew by 11%, might think that the Cathie Wood section means the Korean battery industry will continue to struggle. If there are analysts who tell this kind of story without understanding it and investors who blindly follow that, I think there is a high possibility of being quite wrong, whether it's due to their relationships.

I think it's a bit difficult due to the lack of understanding or judgment. Major car manufacturers are continuously expanding their lineup of electric car models with various styles and price ranges from the second half of this year to the next year and the year after. As a result, the demand for batteries will inevitably increase. Although there may be some delays in battery production capacity plans, why were these capacity plans announced? From that perspective, let me show you once again. The battery production capacity operation schedules of LG Energy Solution, SK On, and Samsung SDI, the three major battery manufacturers, were revised by our research institute a few months ago, reflecting some updates. Let me show you this again. Regarding the joint factory with GM, the first factory is currently in operation, and the second factory in Tennessee started operating from the second quarter. The first quarter operation...

It is mentioned that it is scheduled, but actually, it started operating from April. It's not in full operation yet. Naturally, the operating rate will gradually increase. Three factories are aiming to start operations next year based on the sales volume of GM models. The Stellantis joint factory will start full-scale production next year. Next, looking at the LG Energy Solution's standalone factory, in 2025 and 2026, the Honda joint factory and Hyundai joint factory in the U.S. will start operations. So, please note that electric vehicle sales will be in full swing in 2025 and 2026. What is currently being sold is not yet in full swing; it will be aligned in the coming years. Accordingly, the timing of battery production capacity construction and operation is also aligned with 2025 and 2026. Even if it starts in 2025, the actual demand will be boosted in 2026, and production will ramp up more steeply.

The shipping volume will increase, so it is aligned with 2025 and 2026. Therefore, the drawings I am doing now show a slight slowdown in growth in the first half of this year, followed by an increase, and it is expected to skyrocket in 2026. This is the expected performance graph. This applies to the three major battery cell manufacturers, and the materials are the same. SK Innovation is also planning to start new operations, not just the existing ones. The target is to operate in 2025 and 2026. Next, Samsung SDI is scheduled to operate in 2025, 2026, and 2027. It is planned to start operations in December 2027, but news has come out that it might be pulled forward. Therefore, some adjustments need to be made. This is how it looks, and according to the electric vehicle release schedule, the battery production capacity schedule is also in place. LG Energy Solution and SK Innovation are in the electric vehicle market.

The growth rate is steep now, but it is temporarily slowing down. Some of the things that were rushed are now being scaled back, some are slightly delayed, and adjustments like these are being made. However, this in itself will not change the trend at all. And although the current trend is like this, we don't know how fast it will continue to grow in the latter half of this year or next year. So, as Rivian CEO mentioned, with the increasing choices of electric car models, the growth rate in the U.S. EV market is expected to recover. I agree with this view. Currently, in the U.S. market, there are not many competitive electric cars being released, and particularly, Tesla dominates most of the market share, so there are not many options. In addition, the incentives for switching from internal combustion engines to electric cars are limited. That's what they say. But, anyway, with many electric car companies now, the situation is changing.

Companies are saying that the electric vehicle market can only grow if they release powerful electric car models.

전기차 아닌 테슬라의 부진에 속지 마라! 테슬라 제외한 미국 전기차 5월 판매 56%나 성장! #선대인

선대인경제연구소 유튜브 채널입니다. 방문해주셔서 감사합니다^^