And interestingly, you've been – I wouldn't say full-out positive, but leaning toward some interest in Chinese names and Chinese economic stimulus that seems to be being promised more forcefully. Hi, Caroline. Thanks for having me.

So probably our strongest conviction is U.S. stocks, particularly because of U.S. exceptionalism. I think this thing is still going to trade into the new year, and the fact that U.S. companies are just so much more profitable.

So we still much prefer a U.S. dollar versus the rest of the world. However, for Chinese stocks, I think, you know, sentiment has been very depressed. I think investors are still doubtful about the scale of the stimulus and whether it is going to work.

So it is not that much of a consensus trade. I think this trade is still facing a lot of resistance. And we feel that sentiment has been way too negative. And valuations are very cheap.

There is a case to be made that there could be more stimulus coming, and the fact that economic data is stabilizing. So I think there's a case for investors to diversify into Chinese stocks as well. Small overweight in Asia, ex-Japan, on the back of that.

What, therefore, of the daily deluge we get on ramping up China-U.S. tensions? Yesterday it was about a video being investigated by Chinese regulators. There's an ongoing narrative around Micron as well. How have you been trying to price that?

in? Well, I have to say it is very difficult to price it. I do believe that institutional investors have somewhat been more prepared this time. And you can see that in some of the selloff in the trade-exposed stocks, for

example. European ex-UK stocks, for instance. So I think investors have already been making some adjustments, and thoughts on the trade tariff issue are very difficult to present. But I guess some of that is already reflected in markets, and obviously our

view is that the trade tariffs are likely going to be tit-for-tat, and negotiation tactics are doubtful. That the full extent of the threat is going to be fully implemented, although it is acknowledged that some of that will be

what we saw coming out of that. But it's not necessarily a deterrent to the ongoing rally in the U.S. equity market, for example. Okay. So the likes of Nvidia, which has an enormous valuation, continue to rally throughout 2024.

Does that continue into 2025? Can we vindicate these valuations? The run-up that we've seen in stocks like an 80% up on Oracle and 80% up on the listed depository notes of TSMC? Yeah.

You singled out Nvidia. They're not going to make a specific comment, but this is obviously a great start. Huge profit margins and still very strong guidance. Well, chip architecture, and I think I mean, this is a great company.

Obviously, investors have jumped on the high-value shares, I think, because the rally can still go on, given that, you know, investors still like strong, quality growth. So I would feel that investors will still be very much leading on this.

I mean, the semiconductor sector and tech in general, large cap in general in the US. I also feel that investors are more shifting and rotating into more software-related stocks instead of just semis/hardware. I think that makes sense because there is likely to be more, you know,

commercialization potential and realization as it moves forward from the infrastructure build-out to the inferencing and to the applications.

Tech Prepares For China's Tit-For-Tat Tariffs

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투자 전망: 미국 주식과 중국 경기 부양책

미국의 예외주의와 수익성으로 인해 미국 주식에 대한 긍정적인 전망.

미국 증시에 대한 강한 확신으로 새해에도 지속적인 성장이 예상됩니다.

다른 통화보다 미국 달러에 대한 선호도.

침체된 심리와 경기 부양 효과에 대한 불확실성으로 인해 중국 증시에 대한 낙관론이 조심스럽게 제기되고 있습니다.

부정적인 정서와 저렴한 밸류에이션이 중국 주식에 기회를 제공한다는 믿음.

중국의 추가 경기 부양 및 경제 안정화 가능성으로 중국 주식으로 분산 투자할 것을 제안합니다.

미중 긴장 고조로 인한 영향에 대한 가격 책정의 어려움.

기관 투자자들은 무역에 노출된 주식의 매도로 입증된 것처럼 긴장 고조에 더 잘 대비하고 있는 것으로 보입니다.

맞대응 무역 관세에 대한 기대와 성공적인 협상에 대한 의구심.

무역 관세의 영향이 이미 시장에 일부 반영되었다는 믿음.

기술주 가치 평가: 엔비디아 및 기타

긴장 고조에도 불구하고 미국 주식 시장의 랠리가 계속되고 있습니다.

엔비디아, 오라클, TSMC와 같은 주식의 높은 밸류에이션에 대한 지속 가능성에 의문을 제기합니다.

엔비디아의 강력한 실적, 이익률 및 가이던스에 대한 긍정적인 평가.

투자자들은 강하고 우량한 성장주에 대한 선호도가 높아 랠리가 지속될 가능성이 높습니다.

반도체 하드웨어에서 소프트웨어 주식으로 전환하세요.

인프라 구축 및 애플리케이션으로 인해 소프트웨어의 상용화 가능성이 높아질 것으로 예상됩니다.