중국의 부동산 위기: 경기 침체와 성장에 대한 시사점

### 중국 부동산 시장의 쇠퇴: 도전 과제와 시사점
* 🏢 중국 부동산 시장이 침체 직전에 있다는 분석이 나오고 있으며, 이를 되살리기 위한 정부 부양책의 실효성에 대한 대중의 불안감이 커지고 있습니다.
* 🏙 상하이는 세계에서 주택을 구입하기 가장 어려운 도시로 꼽히며, **소득 대비 주택 가격 비율이 높아 주택을 구입하려면 50년 동안 저축**해야 할 정도로 주택 구입이 어려운 것으로 나타났습니다.
* 📊 이에 비해 서울은 전 세계 중위권으로, **주택을 구입하는 데 약 27.7년의 저축 기간**이 소요되는 것으로 나타났습니다.
* 📉 최근 상하이에서는 **5개월 동안 주택 매물이 82% 증가**하면서 주택 가격이 하락하고 시장이 "죽음의 소용돌이"에 빠질 수 있다는 우려가 제기되고 있습니다.
* 🏦 부동산 부문은 중국 경제에 중요한 역할을 해왔으며, **토지 임대를 통해 지방 정부에 상당한 세수**를 창출하고 **성수기에는 수입의 최대 40%**를 차지합니다.
* 📉 그러나 치솟는 주택 가격은 결혼율과 출산율 감소에 영향을 미쳐 **2013년 1,200만 건이었던 혼인 건수가 지난해에는 700만 건으로 감소**했습니다.
* 💔 청년 실업률은 **21.3%에 달해** 젊은 세대가 부를 축적하고 주택을 확보하는 데 어려움을 겪으면서 문제가 악화되어 **중국 내 빈집이 1억 채에 달하는 것**으로 추정됩니다.
* 🔍 중국 정부의 금융 시장 통제로 당장의 위기는 막을 수 있겠지만, **부동산에 대한 높은 성장 의존도**는 경제의 미래에 상당한 도전이 될 수 있습니다.

중국의 부동산 시장은 치솟는 가격으로 인해 젊은이들이 집을 살 수 없게 되는 등 위기에 직면해 있습니다.

There are analyses suggesting that China's real estate market is about to enter a state of decline. For the first time in Chinese history, there is growing anxiety among the Chinese people that no matter how many stimulus measures the government implements, the real estate market will not recover. Now, can you guess which city is the most difficult in the world to buy a home? Many might think of New York or London, or even Seoul. However, the number one city in the world where it is hardest to secure a home is actually Shanghai, China. In China, it is said that one could spend 50 years without saving a penny and still not be able to buy a house in Shanghai. This ranking comes from the global database website Numbeo, which measures the price-to-income ratio (PIR). The PIR is a metric that expresses the duration a household needs to save in order to purchase a home based on the ratio of housing prices to household income. We often hear that housing prices in our country are extremely high.

However, in our country, Seoul ranks in the middle at 20. It is said that one would need to work for 27.7 years without spending a single penny in order to buy a house. In contrast, in Shanghai, it takes 50 years, which means that housing prices are incredibly high. Currently, there is a significant increase in housing listings in Shanghai, reportedly up by 82% over the past five months. This trend is leading to a gradual decline in housing prices, and there are analyses suggesting that China's real estate market may soon enter a death spiral. 

Recently, this analysis has gained traction for various reasons. China's largest real estate company, Wanda Group, faced a default crisis, and prior to that, the Hong Kong group also suffered losses. So, how did the once-thriving Chinese real estate market end up in such a difficult situation? I will explain this step by step. First of all, the current situation in China is not looking very good.

In the last session, I explained that China's growth engine was, in fact, lost during the global financial crisis in 2008. Especially in the early 2010s, there was a crisis where China almost fell into the middle-income trap. The middle-income trap refers to a phenomenon where a developing country experiences smooth growth in the early stages of economic development but then becomes stuck in a prolonged stagnation between developed and developing countries. To avoid falling into this middle-income trap, China adopted several measures. The first was the astronomical debt I mentioned last time, and the second was real estate. Real estate has played an enormous role in the Chinese economy, and there are two main reasons for this. The first reason is that real estate itself has a tremendous stimulative effect on the economy. Just think about the process of building a house.

Construction labor is used extensively. Once you move in, you also need to do new interior work and buy new appliances and furniture. Therefore, when real estate development is promoted, it leads to increased consumption, which revitalizes the economy. 

The second reason is that the more active the real estate market is, the more taxes the Chinese government, especially local governments, can collect. This part has a very unique characteristic specific to the Chinese real estate market. In China, large-scale land is leased to land development companies for a fee, allowing for long-term leases. This is essentially local governments engaging in land sales, using it to gather economic development resources for the local economy. This is possible because China is a socialist country, where private land ownership has never been allowed. Therefore, in the case of residential land, the government leases it for up to 70 years.

The land use fees generated during the process are truly enormous, accounting for as much as 40% of local government revenue during the good economic times in China in 2019. With the money earned in this way, local governments have supported large-scale equipment investments, provided subsidies to private enterprises, and invested in various types of infrastructure, driving China's economic growth. As housing prices rise, tax revenues increase, and in this process, China has been able to achieve economic growth, which is why the Chinese government has allowed housing prices to soar. Through this real estate boom, the Chinese government has effectively escaped the middle-income trap and continued to maintain high growth. The problem is that the side effects have become quite severe. Initially, it seemed good as the economic growth rate increased and the economic pie grew larger. However, the skyrocketing housing prices resulting from real estate stimulus measures have revealed contradictions within the economy, especially...

The collapse of the skilled generation has begun. As housing prices skyrocket, young people in China are unable to secure homes, leading to a sharp decline not only in marriage rates but also in birth rates. In our country, we have a similar phenomenon known as the gyeongjok, and in China, there has been a rapid increase in the park generation. In other words, marriage has become frightening. When we look at the actual figures, in China, the number of marriages reached about 12 million pairs in 2013, but last year it plummeted to 7 million pairs. Just think about it. As I mentioned earlier, even with our country's PIR index being only half of that, many people are postponing marriage due to excessively high housing prices. Just imagine how severe it must be in China. Historically, China has viewed its population as a measure of national strength. President Xi Jinping has taken measures to prevent the decline in population since 2021.

Strong real estate regulations are being implemented. However, the regulations that started at this time have turned into a storm in the real estate market. Originally, China had been controlling housing prices through a strategy of push and pull. When housing prices rose too high, they introduced regulatory measures, and when prices stabilized, they implemented stimulus policies to drive prices back up. This time, it was expected that they could still adjust housing prices as they pleased, in line with the government's preferences. However, after prices were stabilized and stimulus measures were reintroduced, housing prices continued to plummet even into 2022. In a desperate move, the Chinese government introduced unprecedented stimulus measures, prompting citizens to invest heavily in real estate. As a result, there was a brief surge in housing prices in the first quarter of 2023. Just when it seemed that the real estate issues were resolved, housing prices began to decline again in June, and transaction volumes froze completely. Given the situation,

For the first time in Chinese history, there is a growing sense of anxiety among the Chinese people that no matter how much stimulus the Chinese government implements, the real estate market will not recover. There are three main reasons why the government's stimulus measures have become ineffective. The first is the difference in growth rates; the second is the decrease in population in major cities; and the third is the collapse of income foundations for the younger generation, along with the disappearance of wealth accumulation methods. The youth unemployment rate in China continues to hit record highs, reaching 21.3% in June. The older generation had ample opportunities to accumulate wealth during the past housing price surges, but the current Chinese youth are unable to find jobs, thus missing out on these opportunities. If the real estate market in China does not recover, the numerous vacant houses within the country will become a significant problem.

It has become inevitable that, according to estimates from CNN in the United States, the number of vacant homes in China could reach as many as 100 million. This statistic has been reported, yet the Chinese government does not release statistics on the number of vacant homes and has been unable to refute CNN's report. Therefore, while this figure may not be 100% certain, it is a well-known fact that there are indeed a significant number of vacant homes in China. This is largely due to speculative forces that have purchased many homes without occupying them. Until now, continuous high growth and population increases allowed a greater number of young people to purchase homes that the older generation was selling at high prices. However, young people in China are currently facing lower incomes and uncertain employment prospects, making it truly impossible for them to buy these vacant homes at high prices. In comparison to our country, we do not necessarily need to engage in transactions; we can opt for renting or leasing.

China has many cases where homes are left vacant instead of being rented out due to the characteristics of the housing market. Eventually, these homes will have to be sold. If the Chinese real estate market does not recover as it is, the numerous vacant homes in China could become a significant headache. However, we should not view the Chinese economy solely from a capitalist perspective. The Chinese financial market is completely controlled by the government. Therefore, even if immediate problems arise in the financial market, there is a possibility that a crisis can be averted. Nevertheless, given that China has relied heavily on the real estate market for its rapid growth, if the real estate market falters, it would not be an exaggeration to say that China’s growth myth may be at a turning point. Today, I introduced you to the Chinese real estate market, and next time, I will provide more insights.

I will share useful information with you.

세금 때문에 집값 올린다? 중국 부동산 위기 맞은 진짜 이유｜크랩

 뉴스에 재미를 더하다,  KBS 뉴미디어 채널 크랩 

크랩 KLAB

중국 부동산 시장은 정부의 경기 부양책에도 불구하고 경기 회복에 대한 국민들의 불안감이 커지면서 하락 조짐을 보이고 있습니다.

상하이는 주택을 구입하기 위해 무려 50년을 저축해야 하는 등 세계에서 주택을 구입하기 가장 어려운 도시로 꼽히고 있습니다.

주택 매물 증가와 주요 부동산 기업의 재정난은 중국 부동산 시장의 잠재적인 죽음의 소용돌이에 기여하고 있습니다.

중국의 부동산 개발은 대규모 건설 노동력을 창출하고 소비를 증가시켜 경제에 활력을 불어넣습니다.

지방 정부는 장기 토지 임대를 통해 상당한 수익을 창출하고 경제 개발 자금을 조달합니다.

주택 가격의 급등은 중국의 경제 성장에 기여했지만, 경제 내 심각한 부작용과 모순을 초래하기도 했습니다.

중국의 젊은이들은 치솟는 집값으로 인해 내 집 마련에 어려움을 겪고 있으며, 이는 결혼과 출산율 감소로 이어지고 있습니다.

중국의 결혼 건수는 2013년 1,200만 쌍에서 지난해 700만 쌍으로 감소했습니다.

정부의 주택 가격 규제 노력에도 불구하고 부동산 시장은 가격이 급락하고 거래량이 동결되는 등 혼란을 겪고 있습니다.

중국 부동산의 비효율적인 경기 부양책과 증가하는 공실 위기

중국 정부의 경기 부양책은 성장률 차이, 주요 도시의 인구 감소, 젊은 세대의 소득 기회 붕괴로 인해 부동산 시장을 되살리는 데 실패했습니다.

3%로 사상 최고치를 기록하면서 젊은이들이 부를 축적하지 못하고 주택 구매 기회를 놓치고 있습니다.

투기성 구매로 인해 중국의 빈집 수는 1억 채에 달하는 것으로 추정되며, 현재 경제 상황으로 인해 젊이들이 높은 가격에 주택을 구입하기는 어렵습니다.

중국은 주택 시장의 고유한 특성으로 인해 빈집이 상당수 존재하며, 이는 결국 매물로 이어질 수 있습니다.

금융 시장에 대한 정부의 통제력은 당장의 문제에도 불구하고 위기를 피할 수 있는 가능성을 높입니다.

그러나 부동산 시장에 대한 높은 성장 의존도는 부동산 시장이 흔들릴 경우 중국 경제의 안정성에 대한 우려를 불러일으킵니다.