미-중 무역 전쟁: 영향과 향후 전망

### 미-중 전쟁: 애플 효과, 실패한 제재, 그리고 글로벌 분쟁의 미래
* 🍏 미국은 전 세계 스마트폰과 노트북의 90%가 중국에서 제조되는 **'애플 효과'**로 인해 중국으로부터 탈동조화할 수 없으며, 20년 동안 구축한 생태계를 옮기는 것은 불가능합니다.
* 🛡 반도체 법, 엔티티 리스트 무역 통제, 미래 산업에 대한 보조금 등 중국을 제재하려는 미국의 노력에도 불구하고 **제재는 허점이 있고 효과가 제한적인** 것으로 나타났습니다.
* 🌐 중국은 무역을 다각화하고 더 강해질 것이라고 믿는 반면, **미국은 산업 기술의 국제화를 역전시키고 반도체 생산을 미국으로 되돌리려** 하고 있습니다.
* 🚀 중국은 미국의 제재에 대응하여 **AI, 반도체, 우주 기술 등 첨단 기술을 공격적으로 추구**하며 국산화와 개발에 힘쓰고 있습니다.
* 💰 궁극적으로 미중 갈등은 양국이 기술과 무역에서 우위를 차지하기 위해 경쟁하면서 **금융 전쟁으로 발전**할 것으로 예상됩니다.
* 📉 " 미국의 제재가 강화될수록 **중국은 더욱 악의적으로 현지화와 발전**을 위해 노력할 것입니다.
* 🛰 중국이 우주 기술에 집중하는 이유는 **해양력이 약화됨에 따라 하늘을 통제**하고 우주에서 지구로 보내는 신호를 방해하려는 전략에 따른 것입니다.
* 🌏 "모든 기술이 한 곳에서 시작된 시대는 없었습니다."

무역 전쟁과 제재를 통해 중국을 봉쇄하려는 미국의 시도는 지난 15년 동안 비효율적인 조치와 긴장 고조로 인해 궁극적으로 실패했습니다.

In the United States, it's not China but the United States. There is what we call the Apple effect there. The most perfect ecosystem of smartphones and laptops in the world has been created in China. If you enter China, you can immediately kill China by imposing sanctions, but before that, Apple's stock price will plummet drastically. So, when Nasdaq collapses, can the U.S. government endure that? When the U.S. completely closes the door to China, there is an effect where U.S. companies' revenue drops by 30-40%. It's impossible to bear that all at once. The United States continues to provoke China and engage in a trade war. How threatening is China that the U.S. is going this far? In 2009, President Obama raised the Pivot to Asia slogan, shifting focus from the Middle East, Europe, military matters, and such to Asia.

But it's not about Pivot Asia, it's actually Pivot China. When the U.S. referred to China as Pivot Asia to block China's rise, by 2010, China had become the world's number one in terms of GDP share. The yellow part represents China's GDP share. In 2010, China surpassed Japan in 1985, and the U.S. in GDP share, exceeding 40%. That's why President Obama tried to contain China. However, looking back over the past 15 years since 2009, how did the Pivot Asia strategy of the U.S. turn out? When evaluating the results, looking at the GDP share of China in the world, from 2009 to 2014, China's share was 8% in 2009, but now it has increased to 17%, 11% higher. This wasn't self-inflicted. Of course, there was Corona for three years, but the overall share at that time was.

Although it has fallen, if you look at the past 15 years, it has increased significantly. However, when looking at the growth rate, China's GDP growth rate has never been lower than the world average or the U.S. average in the last 14 to 15 years. And looking at the current account balance, the yellow color represents the U.S.'s current account deficit, and the blue color represents China's current account surplus. As you can see, the U.S. has consistently shown a current account deficit, while China's has been steadily increasing. Therefore, cumulatively, since 2009, the U.S. has incurred a deficit of nearly $8 trillion, while China has achieved a surplus of $3.5 trillion. So, did China provoke the U.S.? No, on the contrary, it is a phenomenon where the U.S. is falling behind. Therefore, from a national perspective, we have come to a state where we cannot just sit idly by and watch China as it is. So, the efforts of the past 15 years, what are we now?

The United States interprets the past victories of Trump and Xi Jinping as a complete victory for Trump and a complete defeat for Xi Jinping because the United States is an important ally of ours and is wise. However, when we check the facts, the U.S.'s attempts to contain China over the past 15 years have all failed. Despite this being a fact, from the perspective of the U.S. and U.S. politics, they keep saying that China has been contained. But in reality, China has not been contained; rather, it has paradoxically retaliated and sanctioned back, truly cutting off the throat. If you successfully hit the vital points and cut off the airway, it is a great success. However, if you keep hitting the wrong points, it only increases resistance and resilience. Currently, the relationship between China and the United States is exactly like that. The most aggressively used card by the United States is raising tariffs. If tariffs are raised, China will not be broken. Therefore, that's what Trump has been doing for four years.

While there was a trade war, it failed. So, Trump completed and Xi Jinping failed. We acknowledge that, but the result is what the American people judged. If Trump fails re-election, it's because the Chinese policy failed. However, recently President Biden mentioned that for electric cars, they will provide a 2% subsidy, 100% for construction, 50% for solar panels, and 50% for semiconductors. But why does this seem like a strategy change? The reason is, looking at the background, the chart you see now shows Biden and Trump's approval ratings. If you look, since September last year, Biden's approval rating has been higher than Trump's. So, the red is Trump, and the blue is President Biden. Therefore, Biden must be re-elected, which makes it very urgent for him.

In April, Biden talked about retaliatory tariffs on steel, and now that Trump has been convicted, Trump and Biden's approval ratings have dropped by about 1%. In order to take the lead from here, Biden needs to win over Trump's supporters. However, President Biden, since taking office, has not mentioned retaliatory tariffs or trade, only talked about blocking semiconductor technology. The reason is that he did not want to talk about retaliatory tariffs and trade to differentiate himself from Trump. But why talk about it since April? Because the approval ratings are almost tied, to surpass this, he needs to win over Trump's supporters. But the method Trump used was to raise retaliatory tariffs, and this is the move.

In fact, I'm very scared, so trying to overcome this gap in approval ratings was the most important thing. But the problem is whether it is possible to overcome this approval rating gap. The reason is that it's a bluff. The first reason is hitting 100% of the storage in electric vehicles, which is a huge deal. If you hit 50% in solar power and semiconductors, it means don't export. The problem is, for example, China's leading electric car company, BYD, doesn't export electric cars to the United States, mostly to Europe. But even if they don't export, what's the point of hitting 100%? That's exactly what a bluff is. In the case of solar power, China dominates 80 to 90% of the entire supply chain from raw materials to modules. If the US hits a 50% tariff there, it would be good for the US to localize or find alternatives elsewhere if they can't find them.

As much as retaliatory tariffs have been raised, the United States has to buy at a high price. So, now the effectiveness is low, and then if they impose sanctions on semiconductors, this is a really big issue. But the problem is, looking at the first implementation, if you look at the chart on the right, it says they will do semiconductors by 2025. Then batteries in 2026. So, after the presidential election ends in November 2024, they will do it. But who knows who the president will be? So, this is not a means to actually choke China and force them to surrender. That's how it can be judged. Currently, in the media, they talk a lot about this retaliatory tariff issue, making it seem like a big deal, but the answer can be found from someone who has money, solar power, this, now in the world.

The leading company is in China, and CATL is the top in batteries in China, and Longji is the top in solar power. So, when the stock prices of these three companies increase by 50% or 100%, the stock prices should collapse. However, the stock prices of these companies have not changed in the past month. This means that, as I mentioned earlier, if we accurately check the impact of Biden's tariff bomb on China, it seems that it does not have a significant influence. This is reflected accurately in the money. Semiconductors and advanced technology seem to be the core of the US-China trade war. What is the situation? The US's containment policy in advanced industries includes semiconductor laws, chips, followed by trade controls called the Entity List, and then subsidies for future industries such as energy infrastructure. Currently, the most important are semiconductors and telecommunications. Therefore, companies like Samsung Electronics manufacture telecommunications equipment for Huawei.

The company that provides essential semiconductors is the center of the international company. Two things should not be sold to Korea: equipment and technology. This is the regulation of the United States. But if Korea is subject to this regulation, they should close immediately. Since 2021, for the third year now, we have been receiving this. If China faces this, if equipment and material supplies are cut off, they should close. In terms of China's semiconductor production volume, it shows a negative trend in 2022 and 2023, but from 2024, it starts to turn positive again. Therefore, the sanctions do not have much effect. Blocking equipment and technology should prevent production, but after a temporary interruption, they resume. This means China has some domestic production or some way to cover it. And now, China's representative semiconductor.

The company is C, but it received sanctions in 2020, so from 2021, it is now included in the official entity list. If you deal with this company, it's not allowed. The revenue does not continue to increase, and what's shocking is that in the first quarter of this year, TSMC ranked first in the world's semiconductor foundry, Samsung Electronics second, and SMIC third. Taiwanese companies are all caught, so sanctions were imposed. How did this fall out of the top 10 instead of falling out of the top 3? That's what they say. So, did the U.S. sanctions succeed? The answer is here. Next, they sanctioned Huawei, and although Huawei received sanctions in 2020, with reduced revenue and profits in 2021 and 2022, in 2023, revenue returned to an increasing trend, and profits, although not as high as in the past, have risen to about 80% of the past peak. Surprisingly, Huawei, globally.

We are the leading company in the 5G telecommunication network, that's why the U.S. banned Huawei, precisely because of that. So, looking at the global telecommunication equipment market share in 2020, Huawei had 31%, but due to sanctions, it dropped to 28% and then rose back to 30% last year. Even considering China as a whole, it dropped from 41% to 39% and then went back up to 41%. Despite efforts, the impact was not significant. So, when viewed in this way, the U.S. sanctions against China seem to have some loopholes. If we check the data properly, it shows this way. The U.S. seems to genuinely sanction China, but it doesn't seem to be effective. Could it be that they haven't found a proper solution? Is it due to some internal issues? Therefore, it's not about China, it's about the U.S. and there is what we call the Apple effect. Apple, from smartphones to iPhones.

Still, 90% is made in China, so what, they say they moved everything to India, but that's nonsense. The reason why 90% is still made in China, not India, is very simple. Since 2006, in the past 20 years, the most perfect ecosystem for smartphones and laptops has been built in China worldwide. So, even if you can move the factory to India, you have to bring all the parts and materials there to make it work. It's impossible to move the ecosystem that has been built over 20 years in just one or two years. It's a blow to Samsung the moment you move. That's why Apple can't escape. That's why it's like that in terms of the ecosystem. And now, if you regulate semiconductors, the best thing to do is to stop all the semiconductors going into China. Then China will be done. But the problem is that 60% to 90% of laptops, cell phones, digital TVs worldwide are EM'd to China, especially companies like Apple. If all the semiconductors going into China are stopped, it will be the end of China.

We can kill China right away, but before that, Apple's stock price will plummet significantly. It means that 90% of the mobile phone sales could disappear. So, when the Nasdaq collapses, can the U.S. government bear it? Looking at the income of U.S. stores, financial income accounts for 70-80%. When stock prices drop, there is a drastic decrease in store income, which directly applies to the table. Therefore, we shouldn't invest or expand facilities in China. Why does the U.S. allow Apple to continue expanding factories, and Musk to expand Tesla's factories? It's because of internal relations in the U.S. When it comes to semiconductors, they supply only advanced equipment for 14 nanometers or less. Just sell the rest. That's the point. The reason is ultimately now.

The revenue of American semiconductor equipment companies is now going to China, accounting for 340%. When China completely shuts the door, the effect will be a 340% drop in revenue for American companies. It's not something that can be resolved all at once. So, when the business areas overlap, because they are intertwined, the knife that pierces the opponent ultimately turns into a boomerang back to oneself. This is how the ecosystem of the world works now. The reason why the United States cannot capture China in one fell swoop is because of this situation. How do you see the big fight of dual conflict unfolding in the end? The United States is decoupling, but China is thinking they will diversify in the future. They believe they will become stronger in trade, like a meal for the United States. That's how they think. That's why they are expanding beyond the United States. The second reason is that all cutting-edge technologies are now.

He was born in the United States, in Silicon Valley. But now, China's thinking is that in the future, the United States will not share advanced technology with China under any circumstances. Therefore, they think they will create technology that does not rely on U.S. technology at all. So recently, if you look at China going to the moon, it seems like there are three types of countries in the world. The first type prays to the moon, the second type goes to the moon, and the third type goes to the back of the moon and digs up soil. Currently, China falls into this third category. So, they are now ambitious about space. Why did they go and bring back the moon's samples? So, we think that China has a vision now. They think that with a population of 1.4 billion, poor people, beggars, what can they do? They have this kind of perspective. They think of China as a country that steals technology, like taking apart our cars and cell phones.

Can you make an airplane with technology and go up to the moon? If you have the skills to make a car, can you take it to Mars? Then, who gave the technology to go to Mars and the moon? Was it the U.S., Japan, or South Korea? Therefore, we should not underestimate China's technological level. So, why is China making such a fuss in space? The U.S. hasn't even gone up as before. The reason is, as I mentioned earlier, it's not the era of continents, but the era of oceans. It's the era of maritime hegemony controlling the seas. But if a bowl flies, and if it controls the sky, that's real power. However, as I mentioned earlier, China is currently blocked from going out to the Pacific and Indian Oceans by sea. So, maritime power is weakening, and now, even in terms of aerospace, in the aspect of controlling the sky.

The United States overwhelmingly surpasses it. So, how do you go beyond these two? It's by attacking from space. So, from space, they jam the signals to the Earth. By doing this, even airplanes and ships can be controlled, like an EMP bomb. Therefore, they are putting their lives on the line for space technology, as well as imposing sanctions on the U.S. for AI, semiconductors, and supercomputers. The more the U.S. sanctions, the more China becomes malicious, striving for localization and development. So, from now on, if you just sit back and watch, there has never been a time when all technologies originated from one place. Therefore, the jet engine developed in the UK goes around and around, leading to the U.S. and eventually becoming like the birth of a car. Thus, fiber, steel, automobiles, and electronic semiconductors all start in the U.S. or in the UK, then go to Japan, Korea, and Taiwan.

You went to China, but now the United States is reversing the internationalization of this industrial technology. They are trying to bring back the semiconductors that were in China to the United States. So, ultimately, from now on, the world is no longer unified as it used to be in the past under U.S. standards of globalization. In the future, the U.S. and China will ultimately end up in conflict. There will be American standards and Chinese standards, so they will be divided into China and America. Then, how will countries that are in between deal with this? They will adjust their specifications to both the U.S. and China, selling to both countries. So, ultimately, how will things turn out? In the end, looking at all major countries, they start as trading countries, then become military powers, and finally financial powers. But currently, the leading manufacturing and trading country in the world is.

China. Right now, in terms of technology finance, it's the United States. So, why are they constantly fighting over semiconductors and AI? If this becomes technology, then what will happen in the future? Ultimately, it's a trade war. In 2018, there was a trade war, and in 2021, there was a technology war. But in my opinion, after 2025, there will probably be a war of resources. The U.S. and China, even though they are okay with semiconductors and technology, if they don't supply the many chemicals needed for making silicon wafers for semiconductors, even if they have the equipment, they can't produce them in terms of technology. So now, there is a possibility that the supply chain could shift from a technology supply chain to a resource supply chain. If it goes one step further, it might turn into a financial war. So, as you saw earlier, the end of all major powers now is manufacturing.

In trade, it ends with financial technology. So, the U.S. is strong in technology, but they can't manufacture. However, they still hold on because they have financial innovation. In the end, where will the U.S.-China war end? It ends with financial matters.

관세로는 중국 못 꺾습니다 결국 물가만 올라갑니다 (전병서 소장 / 3부)

* 출연신청 & 제휴 및 광고문의 : ssid@dpnstud.io


신사임당

미국은 중국과의 갈등에서 제재를 가할 경우 미국 기업의 수익에 큰 영향을 미칠 수 있기 때문에 딜레마에 직면해 있습니다.

중국의 부상을 견제하려는 미국의 노력에도 불구하고 중국의 GDP 점유율과 성장률은 계속 증가하는 반면 미국은 중국과의 무역수지에서 상당한 적자에 직면해 있습니다.

지난 15년 동안 중국을 봉쇄하려는 미국의 노력은 실패로 돌아갔고, 미국은 관세 인상에 크게 의존하는 등 복잡하고 저항적인 관계로 이어졌습니다.

바이든의 전략 변화와 미-중 관계에 미치는 영향

미국과 중국 간의 무역 전쟁이 실패로 돌아가면서 트럼프에서 바이든으로 전략이 바뀌었습니다.

전기 자동차, 건설, 태양광 패널, 반도체에 대한 바이든 대통령의 새로운 보조금은 중국에 대한 접근 방식이 바뀌었음을 나타냅니다.

중국에 대한 바이든의 관세 위협과 제재가 중국 경제에 의도한 영향을 미치지 못할 수도 있기 때문에 그 효과는 의문입니다.

중국 기업에 대한 미국 제재의 비효율성

중국 주요 기업의 주가는 예상과 달리 폭락하지 않아 바이든의 관세 정책의 영향이 크지 않음을 보여주고 있습니다.

중국 반도체 및 통신 기업에 대한 미국의 제재는 C, TSMC, 삼성전자, 화웨이와 같은 기업의 회복력과 심지어 성장에서 알 수 있듯이 성공적이지 못했습니다.

중국을 제재하려는 노력에도 불구하고 중국의 생산량과 세계 시장 점유율에 미치는 영향은 미미해 제재에 허점이 있음을 시사합니다.

전자 제품 제조 분야에서 중국의 지배력이 미치는 영향

중국의 20년간의 전자제품 제조 생태계는 생산을 인도와 같은 다른 국가로 옮기기 어렵게 만듭니다.

글로벌 공급망의 중국 의존도가 높기 때문에 미국과 Apple과 같은 기업에 큰 영향을 주지 않으면서 중국에 대한 반도체 공급을 차단하기는 어렵습니다.

글로벌 비즈니스 생태계의 얽히고설킨 특성으로 인해 미국은 중국의 지배력을 단숨에 약화시키기가 어렵습니다.

우주 지배를 향한 중국의 야심찬 비전

중국은 자체적으로 우주 탐사를 위한 첨단 기술을 개발하여 미국 기술에 대한 의존도를 낮추는 것을 목표로 하고 있습니다.

최근 달 탐사를 통해 샘플을 채취하는 등 우주 탐사에 집중하는 것은 우주 기술 분야의 주요 플레이어가 되고자 하는 중국의 비전을 반영합니다.

중국의 우주 노력은 해양 및 항공 우주 강국을 능가하려는 전략적 목표에 따라 추진되고 있으며, 하늘을 통제하고 잠재적으로 우주 기반 기술을 사용하여 미국에 제재를 가할 수 있습니다.

산업 기술의 변화하는 글로벌 역학 관계

미국이 중국으로부터 반도체 기술을 탈환하면서 글로벌 표준이 분열될 가능성이 커지고 있습니다.

앞으로 미국과 중국 사이에 끼인 국가들은 양쪽 모두에 판매하기 위해 사양을 조정할 수 있습니다.

기술을 둘러싼 갈등은 자원 전쟁으로 확대되어 궁극적으로 두 초강대국 간의 금융 전쟁으로 정점을 찍을 수도 있습니다.