미국 주식 시장: 동향, 전망 및 투자 전략

투자자들은 금리 인하 후 엇갈린 결과를 보여주는 과거 데이터에도 불구하고 미국 주식 시장의 금리 인하 가능성을 예상하고 있습니다.

### 미국 시장 개요: 금리 인하 기대감과 투자 전략
* 📉 골드만삭스와 에버코어 ISI가 연말 **S&P 500 목표치를 상향 조정**하는 등 미국 증시에서 금리 인하에 대한 투자자들의 기대가 점점 커지고 있습니다.
* 📈 팔란티르가 상승세를 주도하는 등 **인공지능 관련 주식이 긍정적인 흐름**을 보이고 있습니다.
* 📉 역사적으로 **S&P 500 지수는 연준의 첫 금리 인하 이후 250일 동안 평균 약 20% 하락**했습니다.
* 📈 연준이 인플레이션을 억제하기 위해 금리를 인하하면 **주식은 향후 6~18개월 동안 좋은 성과**를 거둘 것으로 예상됩니다.
* 🛡 향후 세 가지 투자 전략은 **채권 투자 재개, 신흥 시장 주식(예: 인도)과 같은 위험 자산 고려, 성장주에 대한 지속적인 투자**입니다.
* 💸 수조 달러의 현금이 부업에 투입되고 있는 상황에서 **금리가 인하**되면 상당한 금액의 자금이 주식 시장으로 다시 유입될 가능성이 있습니다.
* 📈 NVIDIA의 주가는 단기간에 크게 급등했으며, 주요 기술 ETF는 지수 리밸런싱으로 인해 **100억 달러 이상의 NVIDIA 주식을 매입**해야 하는 상황에 직면해 있습니다.
* 🚗 엘론 머스크는 테슬라의 **'마스터 플랜 4'가 순조롭게 진행**되고 있음을 암시하며, **완전 자율 주행과 AI에 집중**할 계획에 대한 기대감을 드러냈습니다.
* 🚀 TSMC는 수요 증가로 인해 **N3 나노 칩과 고급 패키지의 가격을 인상**할 계획이며, **2025년까지 회사의 생산 능력이 거의 최대치에 도달**할 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.

Hello, this is Joo Shin University. Today's Big Joo Shin Yesuri starts on June 18th. Welcome to all the investors in the U.S. who are following the basics of U.S. stock investments without change. First of all, I would like to make one announcement. You may already know, but tomorrow, June 19th, is a holiday, so we will be closed to comply with the federal holiday. Therefore, there will be no U.S. market opening. I would like to take this opportunity to take a day off and rest a bit, as many of you may know, I am feeling quite uncomfortable physically right now. So, I thought of taking a day off to regain some energy. I hope you all understand. I will greet you again with a normal broadcast on Thursday. Now, let's start today's Big Stock News prepared for June 18th. As always, let's start by organizing the kings of the U.S. market. SMP.

I will first look at the S&P 500 provided by Finviz.com. The layout has changed a bit. Until yesterday, healthcare was here, and the Consumer Cyclical, which is called Consumer Cynical, was here. Therefore, Consumer Discretionary has moved up, and healthcare has moved down. So, going forward, tech stocks will be here, and also here. If you look at it this way, tech stocks are typically referred to as Tech. The first sector is Technology, and the second is Communication Services, which includes Google, Meta, and Netflix. Disney is also included here. Lastly, Consumer Cyclical, which in Korean refers to companies that are already consumed, includes Tesla and Amazon.

Therefore, this part is now mainly dominated by tech stocks. If you look at yesterday's direction of the U.S. stock market, most tech stocks showed a good upward trend. Of course, Nvidia dropped by 0.68%, but most tech stocks showed green and continued on a positive trend. Yesterday, the market volatility was decent for a change. It was a healthy day with significantly more rising stocks than falling ones. Looking at the movements of the three major indices, the Dow Jones closed with a 0.49% increase, the S&P 500 went up by 0.77%, and the Nasdaq surged by 0.95%, showing the best trend. Unfortunately, Bitcoin couldn't escape the downward trend yesterday. The current price of Bitcoin is $65,686. This is how the U.S. stock market was yesterday.

There are various reasons why investors continue to be optimistic, but the most significant factor is that currently in the stock market, investors are increasing their expectations for a rate cut. It would be best to consider this as the most significant aspect. Additionally, yesterday, there were two pieces of news that further boosted the market. Firstly, Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 5,600, which was welcomed news. Secondly, Evercore ISI significantly raised its year-end outlook for the S&P 500 to 6,000, suggesting that there could be a remarkable increase of over 10% ahead. Most investment institutions are gradually adjusting their target prices upwards, indicating that the sentiment in the U.S. stock market continues to be on an upward trend. This is how things stand. Next, with the Nasdaq's upward momentum, stock prices are likely to rise significantly.

Let's take a look at the names of the rising stocks. Palantir was the best yesterday, rising by 6.15%. Second, Gorilla Technology showed the best recent momentum with a 5.90% increase, followed by BroadCom rising by 5.4%. Fourth, Staeit increased by 5.41%, Tesla by 5.30%, SMCI by 5.08%, Microtech Hariji by 4.58%, Peloton by 3.67%, Lucid PLC by 3.57%, Lemonade PLC by 3.5%, and Arista Networks by 3.53%. Overall, stocks related to artificial intelligence are showing a very positive trend. Next, let's check the names of the stocks that fell significantly while all three major indices were rising. Virgin Galactic dropped by an additional 14.5%, showing a continuous decline of 42% in just one month, and DJT decreased by 6.29%.

It's not looking good. Pacific Bio -5.11 Pers Solar dropped by 4.49%, recently, the stock prices are not favorable. Solaredge -4.09, Parkaya Technology -3.87, Giga Cloud Tenel -3.56, OpenDo -3.40, Sound Hound AI -3.16, TMF N, the ETF investing in the 20-year US Treasury bonds with a triple leverage, decreased by 3.12%. Yesterday, after a long time, the US Treasury yields rose. Therefore, the ETF investing in the US Treasury couldn't avoid the decline. InPhase Energy dropped by 3.03%, and finally, Creeper fell by 2.79%, failing to join the rise in US stocks. This is how it looks. Next is the performance of the top 12 in the US. Yesterday, eight stocks maintained an upward trend. Palantir was the best performer, rising by 6.15%.

Additionally, showing an increase of 5.08%, it has been showing an upward trend of 12.78% over the past week. Micron Technology Plus was up 4.58%, and TSMC increased by 2.74%. Furthermore, Microsoft was up 1.31%, Uber 0.61%, Amazon 0.2%, and Infineon 0.20%. Unfortunately, the rest of the stocks declined. Bitcoin is at 65,530, while NVIDIA decreased by 0.68%. Teva Pharmaceuticals dropped by 2.08%, showing a recent negative trend. Solar, on the other hand, plummeted by 4.49%, showing the worst momentum recently. Today's first prepared buying opportunity is very exciting. As I mentioned earlier, what is leading the recent rise in the US stock market is investors' expectations. The market is gaining strength due to the expectation that interest rates will soon be lowered. I've said this before, right?

However, on the other hand, there is another perspective in the U.S. stock market. According to Jae-kyung, there is a saying that goes, Buy on rumors, sell on news. Currently, due to the abundance of rumors, the market continues to rise. But when interest rate cuts actually occur, there is a possibility that the stock market may decline instead. This can be interpreted paradoxically. So today, I would like to look into the historical relationship between interest rate cuts and the U.S. stock market. The first article states that interest rate cuts do not necessarily mean an increase in the U.S. stock market. It has negative implications. Let's directly check what statistics are available. Investors are eagerly demanding interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, but according to investment research institutes, historically, the decline in the S&P 500 has coincided with the beginning of an easing cycle. Therefore, stock prices may...

When we look at a falling bear market, it coincides with the start of a rate cut cycle. Some quite unfavorable statistics are found, and we need to examine the details more closely. It is reported by Wells Fargo Investment Institute (WFI) that investment strategist analyst Austin Pickle has created a chart showing the returns of the S&P 500 and the number of days to the index low after the first Fed rate cut. According to his statistics, after the first Fed rate cut since 1974, the average decline of the index over 250 days is about 20%. Therefore, investors should not consider the first rate cut as a definite signal of a market rally. This conclusion is drawn. Now, one thing we need to be careful about here is that there are also many cases where stock prices rise after a rate cut. However,

Here, we are only collecting statistics when it falls and limiting them to statistics. This part is something you need to remember. Now, if you look here, the average has dropped by about 20%, and the average in 1981. But if you look below, there was a drastic 55% drop in 2007. As you all know, this is the time when the global economic crisis began. In 2001, the stock prices also dropped by over 40%. This was the bursting of the dot-com bubble. Therefore, by combining these parts, we interpret that there is an average of 20%. This seems to be the right interpretation. Now, investors in Austin Peak should focus on the basis for interest rate cuts. This part can be considered very crucial because when the Fed adjusts policies to adjust real interest rates due to falling inflation, it is expected that stocks will perform well during a tactical period of 6 to 18 months.

So, what I'm talking about is that as I mentioned before, there could be two reasons why the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates. The first reason is when there is a certainty that inflation is under control. In this case, it is positive, very good news. Therefore, in the coming 6 to 18 months, stocks are expected to perform well, and we can anticipate that. The second scenario is when it is not clear that inflation is under control, but the problem is when the economy is heading towards a recession. Therefore, to prevent the economy from falling into a recession, interest rates may be lowered. In that case, it falls into the second scenario. The Federal Reserve implements aggressive interest rate cuts to respond to macroeconomic factors or market turmoil. In this case, stock performance is expected to be weak. Therefore, there is a possibility of a sharp drop of around 20%, similar to the significant drop in stock prices in the past, because the economy is in a downturn.

It would be good to conclude like this. He mentioned that during the last five periods of interest rate freezes, the S&P 500 index recorded a return rate close to 20%, the highest level. This is because the U.S. stock market has recently risen too much. The S&P 500 index rose by about 14% in 2024, and there is a high possibility that short-term stock returns will be pressured due to uncertainties in the path of inflation. This is the diagnosis. The year-end target for 2024 is between 5,100 and 5,300. This means that stock prices are expected to fall over the next year. After a gradual economic slowdown, inflation is expected to be contained, supporting profit growth and a new stock rally. Therefore, by the end of 2025, it is predicted that the S&P 500 will rise again to 5,600 to 5,800. This is the outlook.

I am suggesting that if interest rates are lowered, the U.S. stock market could continue to rise. This is the forecast. This time, the period of statistics has been extended a bit. The statistics are from 1965 until now. If you look at it this way, we have divided it into three scenarios. The first is a soft landing. Therefore, without an economic slowdown, inflation is controlled without the economy entering a recession. In such cases, based on past statistics, the U.S. stock market has risen by more than 15% a year later. This is how it can be summarized. Looking at the averages, there has been about a 5% increase. Therefore, after interest rates are lowered in the U.S., there is an additional increase of about 5% over the next year. However, if it falls into a recession, it will decline into negative territory. Therefore, there is a possibility of stock prices falling. Looking at the history from 1965 until now, these are the statistics.

It is being suggested that there may be a rate cut once in 2024, and investors are expecting more rate cuts. With high expectations, they are anticipating that the rate will not go up at least twice. Regardless of which way the interest rates go, especially if they decrease, growth companies that rely on future earnings tend to see an increase in stock prices. Therefore, it is necessary to continue investing in growth stocks. This logic holds true. The last time the Fed cut rates was in 2019, the S&P 500 index surged by about 30%, and investment-grade bonds recorded a stable return of 99%. If we analyze data going back to 1965, as seen in the graph before the soft landing scenario, rate hikes did not trigger an economic downturn but successfully lowered inflation.

In some cases, these cases are very rare. Such cases are uncommon, but despite that, there is a positive history that the S&P 500 index has risen by an average of 15% in the first year after the initial interest rate hike. Therefore, if we assume that there will be no economic recession, three investment strategies are recommended for the future. The first tip is to revive your passion for bond investments. Therefore, consider investing in bonds. If you hold too much of your portfolio in cash, the potential return may decrease. So, instead of holding cash, buy bonds. Therefore, it is suggested to consider securing a decent bond yield. As inflation stabilizes and the Fed is expected to finalize interest rate hikes, bond yields are likely to have reached their peak.

It is highly likely. Therefore, the possibility of bond yields increasing in the future is very slim. Therefore, in 2024, bond interest rates can only decline, and if that happens, we can enjoy higher bond prices and yields. When bond prices rise, we can also realize the price difference, and additionally, since the interest on bonds is currently very high, we can receive dividends as well. This can be summarized like this. Secondly, it says that we can consider riskier assets such as stocks in emerging markets. If U.S. interest rates decline in the future, the U.S. dollar is likely to weaken, and international yields will also decrease. This means there is a possibility that the investment funds concentrated in the U.S. will finally move to regions outside the U.S.

If there is a recovery, it can be summarized that there is a high possibility of leading to the rise of emerging market economies and stocks. Among them, India is showing strong growth, so it could be a noteworthy investment destination. In fact, excluding India, there are no clear global markets to speak of. Even China, which was the strongest, is currently facing a very unfavorable situation due to the collapse of the real estate market. Therefore, China is not a good investment destination either. Japan, which was doing very well, has recently been faltering. Korea also continues to show a sideways trend. As for Europe, where I live, it is showing a very poor trend and an unhealthy economic situation is being observed. Therefore, apart from the United States, there are no clear alternatives. If we have to find one, India is showing a continued growth trend, relatively speaking.

Meanwhile, in the United States, the concept of small-cap value stocks known as REITs now refers to dividend stocks. Assuming that latecomers like low-quality tech stocks and high-yield bonds could still emerge from the recession by 2024, they could achieve better performance. Therefore, if a recession were to occur, these stocks would be the riskiest. Thus, it can be seen as an investment that requires a bit of difficulty and adventure. Thirdly, do not doubt the sustainability of the warning rally in the market. This message implies that the current U.S. stock market has risen too much. Many people are worried that it might start falling from now on. However, that is not the case. It could continue to rise, so it is advisable to stay in the U.S. stock market. Please read once to see what the basis of this advice is.

Interest rates are said to be at a record high in decades, with investors hiding about $6 trillion in cash in money markets and short-term products. Therefore, if borrowing costs fall in 2024, when interest rates drop, there is a high possibility that their yields will also decrease accordingly. In this way, a cycle is created where a significant portion of assets worth trillions of dollars flow into stocks and other high-risk investments, leading to a potential revitalization of the market. This background explains that I have explained this part several times. In 2023 and 2024, the stock market has been rallying mainly in tech stocks. However, it's a very strange situation because interest rates are at an all-time high. Therefore, growth stocks and tech stocks, which should not show a good trend when looking at the distant future, are still performing well. Despite this, due to the influence of artificial intelligence, there is an extraordinary stock market situation.

The rally is unfolding, so there are many investors who did not anticipate this. A whopping $6 trillion in cash is currently sitting on the sidelines unable to be invested in the market. Therefore, if interest rates were to drop, a significant portion of this $6 trillion would likely flow back into the stock market because interest rates are decreasing. This means there is a high possibility that the money currently in deposits, savings accounts, and short-term bonds will flow back into the stock market, providing ongoing support to the stock market. This interpretation seems plausible. Next, it would be good to look at the momentum of the recommended investment destinations mentioned earlier. The first one is an ETF called the MSCI India ETF, which tracks companies listed in India.

The rating is good at 4.26, and let's take a look at the momentum. Among 26 momentum indicators, four are advocating for selling, eight are neutral, and fourteen are giving a buy recommendation, maintaining relatively good momentum. You can see it this way. Now, let's move on and look at one more thing. There is SPSM. This estimates the ETF of the SNP 600 index, which is concentrated in small-cap stocks. Besides this, there is the Russell 2000. The Russell 2000 has one downside, which is the high possibility of Super Micro Computer and Micro Technology soon being excluded from the index. Therefore, it is better to invest in the SMP 600 index without such risks. I shared this information a few days ago through a broadcast. So, there is an ETF called SPSM, which is a small-cap ETF of the SMP 600 index.

You can see that as of June 18th, the quant rating is very low, staying at 1.6. This indicates that the momentum is very weak. Small-cap stocks have been showing a very unfavorable trend for a long time, and the quant score is very low, indicating poor momentum. Among 26 momentum indicators, 12 suggest selling, nine are neutral, and only five are advocating buying. Therefore, in order for the rally of small-cap stocks advocated by the tooth to unfold, it was possible to directly confirm that the momentum is still very weak. Next, we have prepared news related to NVIDIA. The chart currently displayed on the screen is the NVIDIA stock chart. It always feels good to look at it. As you can see, even in October 2022, NVIDIA's stock price was only around $110 to $120 before the split. Oh, now it is.

Due to the split of teenagers, it went back and forth between 11 dollars and 12 dollars. If you look at it like this, the current stock price has exceeded a whopping 130. Therefore, in a short period of less than 2 years, it has increased by about 12 to 13 times. Therefore, it shows a tremendous appearance that far exceeds the 10x. NVIDIA is a stock that can be explained like this. However, the stock price of MBTI, which has achieved such a tremendous increase, is receiving amazing news that it can rise further. There are two things. First of all, the target price of MBD has finally appeared at 160 dollars. In that case, it will be 1,600 as the price before the split, right? Just a while ago, a few months ago, it was below 1,000 dollars, but now a target price of 1 is being presented, which is NVIDIA's tremendous trend, and today's article to read together is about NVIDIA's stock that can further boost the price.

Fundamental information is contained in this. Let's listen to what it is about. Due to the explosive rally of MBDI, major tech exchange-traded funds, which we shorten to ETFs, are facing a situation where they need to dramatically reduce their Apple stock holdings while acquiring over $10 billion of MBDI shares. Let's hear an explanation of what this means. There is an ETF called the Technology Select Sector Spider Fund, with the ticker name XLK. This ETF is based on an index called the Technology Select Sector Index, which is expected to be readjusted soon based on the market capitalization adjusted closing price last Friday. As you all know, ETFs rebalance every three months and change their holdings at the end of the year. Therefore, there will be a continuous readjustment reflecting this market capitalization.

According to the new calculation, Microsoft is ranked as the top stock in the index, followed by Nvidia in second place, and Apple in third place. Currently, the rankings have changed. However, based on last Friday's closing prices, this is how it turned out. Furthermore, if there is no upper limit, it is said to be normal for all three stocks to account for more than 20% of the index. However, there is an issue with the index dispersion rule, which limits the cumulative weight of stocks that account for more than 5% in the fund. As a result, Microsoft and Nvidia will account for 21% of the total weight in the ETF, while Apple will be around 4.5%. Therefore, Apple's weight is expected to drop significantly. Following the index rules, Nvidia actually incurred losses before.

The weight has been artificially kept low, but now there has been a reversal in the weighting. Apple is actually falling, while NVidia's weight is significantly increasing. If you look at it this way, as of June 14th, in the XLK ETF, Microsoft holds 22%, NVidia 6%, and Apple 22%. However, these weights are expected to change in the future. Microsoft will be at 21%, NVidia at 21%, and Apple will suddenly drop to 4.5%. This can be summarized as XLK's assets under management are around $71 billion. Therefore, with a 15% adjustment in this fund, it will exceed $10 billion. When more than $10 billion of funds come and go, it indicates significant changes. A major change is that passive index funds, especially when funds are concentrated in a narrow part of the market, can suddenly change dramatically.

There is an explanation, and this fund, as I mentioned earlier, follows the SNP Dow Jones Index's Technology Select Sector Index, using liquidity-adjusted calculations to determine the market capitalization. Rebalancing will officially take effect this weekend. Therefore, there is a high possibility that funds flowing into NVIDIA will increase suddenly from this weekend to early next week. This can be interpreted positively. However, the article we just looked at focuses on one ETF, but in the market, there are numerous ETFs tracking NVIDIA and various tech stocks. Therefore, with all these ETFs, as NVIDIA's stock price has risen significantly in the short term, there is a position that additional NVIDIA stocks need to be purchased. This can be interpreted positively. After a long time, let's take a look at the momentum and fundamentals of NVIDIA's stock ratings.

When you come in and look at the quant, it's still at 3.49. As you know, the valuation has dropped so far. If the valuation improves a bit more, it's a stock that can naturally receive the best control score. Because not only does it have growth and profitability, with a plus profit of A+, but also momentum is positive. Lastly, the outlook for earnings continues to show a good trend. Next, we will take a closer look at the valuation, which currently has an F grade. First, it's important to look at the forward. It checks how much the market capitalization has increased compared to the expected net profit to be generated in the coming year. It's currently at 54.26 times, which is slightly higher than a few columns ago. Nevertheless, despite that, the past five-year average has

Due to the 62.9% increase, the current Nvidia's price is actually at a discount compared to the past average. Next, if we look at the PEG window, dividing the growth rate by GM, it forms 1.58. This figure has significantly increased from around 1.0 a few months ago. Therefore, the stock price has risen sharply in the short term. However, the current figure is still relatively cheap compared to the past 5-year average of 2.14. Despite this, in the recent months, the stock price has been rising rapidly, indicating a slightly higher valuation. Next, let's directly check if there has been any change in Nvidia's momentum. It is quite intriguing to see if the momentum remains strong. As you can see, out of the 26 momentum indicators, five indicate a sell signal.

It claims and presents seven neutral opinions and fourteen buy recommendations. Just a few weeks ago, in fact, there were hardly any sell signals from momentum indicators. Therefore, we can confirm that the momentum has weakened slightly in the short term. Specifically, the issue is that the stock price has risen too much. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) that we call RSI is currently at 78.7. Therefore, when it exceeds 70, it indicates an overbought situation. Hence, in the short term, the possibility of a technical correction cannot be ignored. This can be summarized in this way. Next, I have prepared news related to Tesla, which has recently shown a very good recovery momentum. Yesterday, Tesla's stock price surged by 5.3%. There was one good news that led to this. Elon Musk tweeted that Tesla's Master Plan 4 is on track.

Let's take a look at the content of the mitigation. Elon Musk is preparing Master Plan 4 for the social media site X ES Tesla, revealing that it is going to be grand. He hinted in advance that it would be significant by using the word 픽 in English. Therefore, it implies that a tremendous plan will be announced. The Master Plan has been a core element of Tesla's long-term investment logic for the past 18 years. It is understandable that in the past, a plan was announced, but let's examine it. In Tesla's Master Plan, which was released in 2006, the following situations were included: First, to create a high-end all-electric sports car, the Roadster, to raise development funds; second, with the profits, to make affordable electric car models S and XL; and third, with that money, to produce even more affordable electric car models 3 and YL.

We are going to develop it. So, the fourth and final point is to provide solar power options by acquiring SolarCity. Therefore, the first Master Plan has mostly been realized, showing a very good execution. The ultimate goal is to create a vertically integrated company that produces electric car batteries and solar panels to implement a sustainable energy ecosystem. This can be summarized as follows. Next, the second plan was announced in 2016 as Master Plan 2. First, integrate SolarCity's energy production and storage with Tesla. Second, expand beyond passenger cars to trucks and buses as the main land transportation. Third, develop autonomous driving features that are ten times safer than manual driving. Fourth, enable earning money even when not using the car through the Tesla Network, which is now called the robotaxi.

The goal of this plan is to create a single company that integrates sustainable energy production, storage, and transportation. Most of the goals set in 2016 are currently being implemented. However, despite that, there are many delays. Next is the Master Plan 3, which was revealed in 2023. It includes accelerating the transition from fossil fuels to dramatically expand Tesla. They mentioned a massive expansion. Secondly, developing advanced AI capabilities for fully autonomous driving and other applications. Thirdly, expanding into new markets such as heating industry processes and long-distance large transportation. Therefore, it seems that they have somewhat given up on the dramatic expansion for now.

I will sell 20 million units now, this grand dream seems to have been put on hold a bit, and instead, Tesla seems to be focusing on fully autonomous driving. So, if you look at it this way, in the current Master Plan 4 under development, fully autonomous driving, robot taxis, and artificial intelligence seem to be the core content. Personally, I think we can expect to hear more information about Tesla's robots. Now, Tesla's momentum has become very strong. Let's take a look at the update. Currently, out of 26 momentum indicators, only two are advocating for selling, nine are neutral, and 15 are suggesting buying. And the most positive point is that the 10-day moving average, 20-day, 30-day, and 50-day moving averages are all above, so the 100-day.

The 200-day moving average line has been captured now, and there are 200 days left. If it goes above the 200-day moving average line, it is highly likely to create a very good trend in the short term. The current 200-day moving average line is formed between $197 and $208. Therefore, whether it can exceed the $200 mark is a very important technical indicator for future trends. This can be summarized in this way. Today, I have also prepared news related to Palantir after a long time. The Palantir stock price trend was good yesterday, creating a surge of over 6% after a long time. There was one positive development - an institution set a target price of $299. I will read the detailed information for you. It is rated as a buy, with a target price of $299, which means there is still a 20% upside potential from the current price for Palantir.

It says here that a new coverage has started. The name is Joseph Bono. Joseph Bono is ranked 598th among Wall Street professionals, which puts him in the top 6% to 7% of competent experts. His success rate is at 61%, and the average return over the past year is 10.3%. Therefore, he is considered a competent expert showing a healthy investment return. According to analyst Jose Bonos, Palantir has long met the needs of the U.S. defense and intelligence community. This means that so far, government business has been more predominant than the private sector. However, in the future, they have started a significant expansion into the commercial sector through data management and analysis platforms that can provide solutions to complex business issues. This development is seen positively. Joseph Bono estimates that in 2023, 55% of Palantir's revenue will come from government contracts.

An issue has arisen, and it was pointed out that the remaining 45% occurred in the commercial sector, with 38% of this happening outside the United States. Therefore, it can be seen that until just 2023, more than half of the revenue came from the government, even last year. According to Zai, Palantir, the government business sector is likely to continue to grow. However, it is expected that the commercial business mainly centered in the United States will be the company's future growth driver. Therefore, from now on, it is predicted that many businesses will emerge in the commercial sector, not the government business. It points out this growth driver. Like other enterprise software companies, Palantir is expanding its business by relying on new AI-based applications. This level of mention is not trivial. In fact, Palantir is a major player in artificial intelligence.

It's the same because before the emergence of artificial intelligence, the Palantir business model was very inefficient. In order to attract a single customer, you had to spend at least a few weeks to a few months at the company, customizing software together, and then had an efficient business model to create a single sale. However, recently, with the emergence of AI-based applications, new sales tools called boot camps that can quickly secure new customers are being discovered. This aspect can be interpreted as very positive. Therefore, Goldman Sachs also has a long-term investment rating for Palantir, which means that even looking at the next year and beyond, the future of Palantir looks very bright.

I have already evaluated it. Of course, Palantir's stock price is volatile and has a premium attached to it. It is one of the high multiple companies. However, despite that, I mentioned that I view Palantir as a company that provides highly differentiated software. In fact, this part can be considered the most powerful differentiator. Despite providing Palantir software, they do not create general-purpose software. This means that unlike other software companies that create one and then sell it at a low price in various markets, Palantir does not follow this strategy. Palantir does not do that. Instead, they develop new software tailored to each company's needs and sell it customized. If you look at it this way, as these customized software solutions continue to increase, a kind of template can be created.

If that happens, the time, effort, and resources for developing new software are likely to decrease, maximizing efficiency. Productivity can continue to increase. This is what we can expect. Analysts have noted that the company's profitability and cash flow have significantly improved over the past year. Recently, profitability and cash flow have been showing great improvement. Therefore, Gauss has provided an estimated EPS of $0.33 for Palantir in 2024 on a non-GAAP basis. Now, it says 2024 here, but this is a typo. They have set the 2025 estimate at $0.40. Therefore, they are suggesting that an EPS of $0.40 can be achieved in the coming year. Earlier, the target price was $29. The stock price is the result of performance multiplied by the multiple. Therefore, with the performance here being $29 and divided by 0.40, the multiple is

Let's see how much premium is being calculated. When you divide $29 by 0.4, you get 72.5. Therefore, the reason why the Planteer, priced at $29, can rise in the coming year is that the performance will be calculated at $0.4 Pro. And when this $0.4 Pro is generated as EPS Pro, the market multiple of 72.5 will allow the stock price to soar to $29. This is the forecast being presented. Therefore, it has a very high multiple. Companies with such high multiples have a very important aspect. As I always mention, when evaluating a company, you need to look at three things: first, the company's growth story; second, the fundamentals; and third, momentum. Among these, the fundamentals are a bit weak.

Because the valuation is so high, the story is that the growth story that the company has must continue to be strengthened. Thirdly, momentum also needs to maintain a strong stance in order for the stock price to be sustained. This interpretation is possible. Therefore, it is necessary to directly check the current momentum of the company. The reason for staying with a hold recommendation, as you can see now, is because the valuation is too high. It can be confirmed once again. Currently, the PER is at 152 times. However, according to the previous article, it is expected to drop to the level of 72 times. Let's take a look at the momentum. Among the 26 momentum indicators currently available, there is not a single momentum indicator advocating for selling. Therefore, it has a very strong momentum. Nine are neutral, and 17 are momentum.

The indicators are strongly advocating for buying. This can be summarized like this. There is a stock boasting momentum not inferior to Palantir we looked at earlier, and that is TSMC. Just like this, TSMC with excellent momentum has another positive news. It has been discovered that they plan to raise prices due to overflowing demand, which is a delightful news. Let's take a closer look at the specific article. TSMC plans to increase the price of N3 nano chips by more than 5%. Also, advanced package prices will increase by 10% to 20% next year. This tremendous news is being reported by TrendForce. The TSMC 3-nano product line includes N3, N3E, N3PX, and N3A. Therefore, they are selling a wide range of products within the 3-nano category alone. Among them, the basic type is N3, and N3E is an upgrade of the existing N3 technology. It is reported that N3E has already started mass production in the fourth quarter of last year. So, now.

Currently, we are selling N3 and N3 2. If you look at it this way, you could consider it as AI accelerator for high-end smartphones that have been emerging recently. It is expected to target applications such as data centers. Therefore, in the upcoming era of artificial intelligence, there is a high possibility that N3 will sell well. According to this report, in the networking field, the mainstream application will be N3PX and N3A. This part is related to high-performance computing for automotive customer services. Therefore, not only in the era of artificial intelligence but also with recent technological advancements, various industries are seeking TSMC chips. After the first year of operation, the advanced packaging factory AP6 in Junan, where TSMC is located, has been put into operation.

It is stated that as the AP6-C facility moved inside, Taiwan's largest chip-on-wafer-on-stray was reduced to become the Covers base, a base that specializes in packaging factories. The report came through industry sources that in the third quarter, the monthly production capacity of Covers is expected to almost double from the previous 17,000 units to 33,000 units. This part is very significant because, as you all know, MBDI GPUs cannot be sold without them. However, in fact, it is said that there is no shortage of GPUs. The reason for the GPU shortage is that, now, GPUs need to be packaged for sale, but due to the significantly decreased production capacity of Covers, they have not been available for sale. This is where MBDI GPUs come into play. Therefore, when the production capacity of Covers, in other words, packaging, increases by almost double, there will be a tremendous increase in production capacity. Therefore, regarding GPUs.

TSMC's revenue is expected to increase significantly. We can understand this way. TSMC's advanced packaging capacity is insufficient, and it is said that the demand from its major customer, NVIDIA, accounts for about half of the total capacity. Following NVIDIA, AMD comes next, and companies like Broadcom, Amazon, and Marvell Technology also show interest in using advanced packaging processes. Therefore, as the facilities continue to expand, there should be no problem in securing customers for TSMC. NVIDIA, with a total margin of about 80%, is likely to agree to price increases to secure more advanced packaging capacity. This is mentioned in the report. Therefore, even if TSMC raises packaging prices by more than 20%, NVIDIA is likely to agree because

Because it cannot be sold, the prices for the 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer process technologies will also be adjusted. Due to the strong demand for 3-nanometer orders in the second half of 2024, it is expected that the operating rate will almost reach its maximum capacity by 2025. Therefore, currently, even if we continue to operate at full capacity, we cannot sell them. In such situations, according to the law of supply and demand, prices should be increased. Even if prices are raised, there is no possibility of a decrease in sales volume at the current sales level. This is something we can expect. As TSMC expands its production capacity more and more, the possibility of increasing sales volume is high. Moreover, by raising prices due to overflowing demand, additional revenue can be secured. Expectations like this are possible. Let's check the fundamentals of TSMC once again after a long time.

I will go over it. It is a company with very impressive fundamentals. The Quant score is showing 4.92 out of 5 points. Currently, the valuation is low, with growth rate at B+, profitability at A+, momentum at A+, and finally, the profit outlook is at C+. Among these, since the valuation is the lowest, we need to take a look at the valuation. If you look at the P/E forward, it is 27.18, so the market cap has increased 27 times compared to the expected net profit to be generated over the next year. The average for the past 5 years is 21.9, so TSNP stock has increased significantly compared to the past average, indicating it is an expensive stock. This evaluation is possible. However, one thing we need to remember here is the P/E ratio, which is dividing the earnings. As we move forward,

There is a high possibility that TSMC's earnings will increase sharply. As the saying goes, the possibility of PER decreasing as we go along is high. We can expect this. Also, considering its outstanding growth, it is still showing a very low figure of 1.14. This can be summarized in this way. Next, let's check TSMC's momentum. Among the 26 indicators, there is not a single indicator suggesting selling, with 9 neutral and 16 giving a buy recommendation. Therefore, a very strong momentum is still evident. TSMC has a story, fundamental, and momentum, making it a perfect stock with no room for doubt. Today's big news ends here on June 18th. Thank you for staying with us until the end of today's broadcast.

Thank you. As I mentioned at the beginning of the broadcast, the U.S. stock market will close tomorrow. I am thinking of taking a day off using that as an excuse. I will greet you all again on Thursday in good health. Let's all fight together until the day we retire from investing in U.S. stocks. Have a happy day. Thank you.

[오늘의 미국주식뉴스] 금리 인하 시기의 성공 투자 전략 / 팔란티어 급등 이유 / 엔비디아 추가 상승을 이끌 ETF 매수 자금 / 머스크, 테슬라 마스터 플랜 4는 장대할 것!

'미국주식투자의 정석'을 지키고 있는 '미주은'에 오신 것을 환영합니다.

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미국주식으로 은퇴하기 - 미주은

빅주 신예리: 6월 18일 주식 시장 개요

미국 증시는 S&P 500, 다우존스, 나스닥 지수가 모두 상승하는 등 긍정적인 흐름을 보였습니다.

투자 기관들은 목표주가를 상향 조정하며 지속적인 상승 추세를 보이고 있습니다.

특히 인공지능과 관련된 기술주들이 긍정적인 모멘텀을 보였습니다.

팔란티어, 고릴라 테크놀로지, 브로드컴이 가장 높은 상승률을 기록했습니다.

반면에 버진 갤럭틱과 DJT는 큰 폭으로 하락했습니다.

전반적으로 시장은 금리 인하 가능성에 대한 투자자들의 기대와 금리 인상 전망에 의해 움직이고 있습니다.

금리 인하가 미국 주식 시장에 미치는 영향

금리 인하는 항상 주식 시장 상승으로 이어지는 것은 아니며 역사적으로 S&P 500 지수의 하락과 관련이 있습니다.

1974년 이후 연준의 첫 금리 인하 이후 250일 동안 지수의 평균 하락률은 약 20%로, 투자자들이 첫 금리 인하를 시장 랠리의 확실한 신호로 간주해서는 안 된다는 것을 알 수 있습니다.

미국 주식 시장은 금리 인하에 대해 다양한 반응을 보여 왔으며, 금리 인하 후 1년간 약 5%의 상승 가능성이 있지만 경기 침체가 발생하면 마이너스 영역으로 떨어질 가능성도 있습니다.

금리 인상 이후의 경제를 위한 투자 전략

역사적으로 S&P 500 지수는 최초 금리 인상 후 1년 동안 평균 15% 상승했으며, 이에 따라 향후 세 가지 투자 전략을 추천합니다.

첫째, 채권 수익률이 하락하여 채권 가격과 배당금 상승으로 이어질 가능성이 높으므로 채권 투자를 고려하는 것이 좋습니다.

둘째, 다른 글로벌 시장에 비해 성장 잠재력이 높은 신흥시장, 특히 인도 주식에 투자하는 것이 좋습니다.

마지막으로 금리가 하락할 경우 주식시장, 특히 기술주 및 고위험 투자로 자산이 대거 유입될 수 있으므로 시장 랠리의 지속 가능성을 의심하지 않는 것이 좋습니다.

모멘텀 지표가 주식 ETF에 미치는 영향

모멘텀 지표는 SMP 600 지수의 모멘텀이 상대적으로 양호한 반면, SPSM ETF는 소형주 모멘텀이 매우 약합니다.

NVIDIA 주식은 큰 폭의 상승세를 보이며 목표 주가가 160달러로 상승해 주가 상승을 주도하고 있습니다.

XLK ETF는 상당한 재조정에 직면해 있으며, Microsoft와 NVIDIA의 비중은 증가하는 반면 Apple의 비중은 크게 감소하여 펀드 운용 자산에 큰 변화가 있을 것으로 예상됩니다.

NVIDIA 주식 모멘텀 및 밸류에이션 분석

NVIDIA로 유입되는 자금이 증가할 것으로 예상되며, 이는 주식에 긍정적인 신호입니다.

이 회사의 주가는 단기간에 크게 상승하여 NVIDIA를 추종하는 여러 ETF로 인해 추가 매수가 필요함을 나타냅니다.

주식 밸류에이션은 단기적으로 소폭 상승했지만 지난 5년 평균에 비해 여전히 상대적으로 저렴합니다.

테슬라의 마스터 플랜 4와 장기 투자 논리

엘론 머스크가 테슬라의 마스터 플랜 4를 발표하자 주가가 급등하며 긍정적인 회복 모멘텀이 나타나고 있습니다.

마스터 플랜은 지속 가능한 에너지를 위한 수직적 통합 기업을 만드는 것을 목표로 하는 Tesla의 장기 투자 전략의 일환입니다.

이 계획의 실행과 마스터 플랜 4의 발표는 Tesla의 강력한 장기 비전과 성장 잠재력을 반영합니다.

테슬라의 마스터 플랜 2와 향후 목표

2016년에 발표된 테슬라의 마스터 플랜 2는 다음과 같이 요약됩니다.

테슬라의 자율 주행으로의 전환과 팔란티어의 성장 전망

Tesla는 현재 획기적인 확장, 자율주행을 위한 고급 AI, 새로운 시장으로의 확장을 포함하는 마스터 플랜 3을 구현하는 데 주력하고 있으며, 곧 발표될 마스터 플랜 4에서는 완전 자율주행을 중점적으로 다룰 계획입니다.

대부분의 지표가 매수를 시사하는 등 테슬라의 모멘텀은 강하며, 주가가 200달러를 돌파할 경우 긍정적인 추세를 보일 가능성이 높습니다.

반면, 팔란티어는 긍정적인 주가 추세를 보이고 있으며, 특히 미국 외 지역에서 사업 확장을 위해 AI 기반 애플리케이션에 중점을 두고 정부 계약에서 상업 부문으로 매출 중심을 옮길 것으로 예상되어 향후 성장 전망이 밝습니다.

팔란티어의 주식 실적과 TSMC의 칩 가격 인상

팔란티어의 주가는 2025년 주당순이익 0.

40달러에 달할 것으로 예상되며, 성장 스토리를 강화해야 함에도 불구하고 높은 밸류에이션과 강력한 모멘텀을 이어갈 것으로 보입니다.

한편, TSMC는 자동차 서비스를 포함한 다양한 산업에서 AI 가속기 및 고성능 컴퓨팅 분야의 첨단 기술에 대한 높은 수요를 예상하여 N3 나노 칩의 가격을 5% 이상 인상할 계획입니다.

이 회사의 새로운 N3E 기술은 이미 양산을 시작했으며 다가오는 인공지능 시대에 매출에 기여할 것으로 기대됩니다.

TSMC의 확장과 GPU 생산에 미치는 영향

TSMC의 패키징 시설인 커버스는 생산 능력을 두 배로 늘려 GPU 패키징 부족 문제를 해결할 수 있을 것으로 예상됩니다.

생산 능력이 증가하면 NVIDIA와 같은 주요 고객이 가격 인상에 기꺼이 동의하면서 TSMC의 수익이 크게 증가할 것으로 보입니다.

회사의 인상적인 펀더멘털과 예상 수익 성장은 미래에 대한 희망적인 전망을 더욱 뒷받침합니다.