AI 반도체에 투자하기: 현재 시장 인사이트

데이터센터 슈퍼 사이클을 반영하는 미래 성장을 위해 AI 반도체에 대한 투자는 매우 중요합니다.

### 현재 시장 환경에서 AI 반도체의 중요성
* 🔮 연사는 현재 시장을 **데이터센터 슈퍼 사이클**과 비교하며 **AI 반도체 투자의 중요성**을 강조합니다.
* 💻 구글은 AI 반도체에 **더 많이 투자하는 것이 덜 투자하는 것보다 더 안전**하다고 제안하면서 단서를 제공한 것으로 강조되었습니다.
* 📈 연사는 엔비디아가 AI 반도체 시장의 핵심 플레이어로서 **엔비디아의 매출이 주요 초점**이라고 지적합니다.
* 💰 반도체 업종은 **삼성전자와 SK하이닉스**가 강자로 꼽히며 긍정적으로 전망되고 있습니다.
* 📉 엔비디아의 영업이익률 하락에 대한 우려가 제기되고 있으며, 발표자는 **이를 주목해야 할 주요 요인**으로 제시했습니다.
* 🏛 연방준비제도와 재무부의 조치를 포함한 거시경제 환경도 **시장 역동성에 중요한 요소**로 논의되고 있습니다.
* 📊 발표자는 시장이 **'증오 정치' 국면**에 접어들고 있으며, 정치적 요인이 시장 심리에 영향을 미칠 수 있다고 제안합니다.
* 비트코인은 고려할 만한 잠재적 자산으로 언급되며, 발표자는 **자산의 약 5%를 암호화폐에 할당**할 것을 권장합니다.

What is the key point to focus on in the current market, similar to the data center super cycle? I believe it is essential to invest in AI semiconductors. I think Google has provided all the hints. Investing more is safer than investing less; we must invest more. For now, I don't have major concerns about semiconductors. I only look at one thing: NVIDIA's sales. 

How do you view the domestic stock market? These days, many stocks that had been performing well this year are experiencing some volatility, and I imagine there are many concerns. I would like to know your perspective on this. 

First of all, regarding leading stocks, I believe that the key point is that the leading stocks that drove the market in the first half of the year will continue to perform well next year. However, valuations are currently being pulled forward by at least one or two years, which applies to cosmetics, fashion, and shipbuilding as well.

In the context of the defense industry, it can be seen that this has been reflected in the past year or two. Therefore, there has been a partial realization of profits, resulting in a correction of about 20% to 30% from the peak. In my case, I was advised at the beginning of this year that I should think a lot about transformers. The reason for this is that, excluding HD Hyundai Electric, other companies in the sector saw a steady increase until August of last year, reaching a peak in August 2023, followed by a six-month correction. During this period, their prices dropped by about 30% to 40% from the peak. Despite this situation, there were discussions about good performance, leading to a rally that began at the start of this year, continuing through March and April, and it has been ongoing since then. However, regarding last year...

In the case of entertainment, there was a time when it was rapidly rising, and discussions about the potential of K-entertainment were prevalent. However, after reaching a peak last summer, it has been undergoing a correction for a year now. The difference between entertainment and the transformation phase is that the numbers in the transformation phase are still continuously increasing. The growth rate is clearly evident. This is the same for sectors with a clear growth trend and for transformers as well. Additionally, in sectors like defense and shipbuilding, where exports are increasing, we have been talking about valuation peaks, and prices have been rising significantly. However, as the global indices have recently experienced some corrections, it has entered a profit-taking phase. After a chart breaks down, we inevitably have to consider how much it has been pulled back.

As I contemplate the Nasdaq and the big tech companies, I wonder how much I have been pulled in. From here to here, I am entering a new position. There is definitely an issue with realizing profits when the chart breaks. People who thought it was good six months or a year ago might say, Oh, the chart has broken; a sell signal has come out; now we need to sell. In that case, there needs to be enough strength to absorb that selling pressure. In a way, this is how a bottom support can emerge and lead to another upward movement. If there is some reflection of support at the bottom, then it means that it's still okay to wait. This can lead to profit realization that continues for three to six months. After that, it can seem like a good time to buy again, as the price has stabilized sufficiently, and then it goes back up. Stocks always tend to move like this. However, I have been thinking about sectors like shipbuilding, defense, cosmetics, and toilets.

I want to emphasize that the companies that have led the semiconductor market will inevitably continue to dominate. Their numbers are increasing, and we are currently in a high-interest rate era. We often talk about market conditions, mentioning that there are different seasons, such as liquidity-driven markets and earnings-driven markets. Right now, we are in a period of high interest rates, so we need to invest in companies that generate free cash flow and are growing in size while making money. As a result, the companies that have been rising since the beginning of this year have primarily been those with strong earnings. It has been a completely earnings-driven market. In this context, companies with good earnings have not seen their stock prices drop after rising. If there are adjustments in the Nasdaq or in global indices, we might see a slight dip, but ultimately, we will have to consider what the fair value is.

There will be another rebound, and I think, Ah, the first half of this year has seen significant growth. This applies to both toilets and ramen, with most products increasing by 200%. If something grows by 150% to 200% in a year, it will likely continue to rise. However, if those products can only grow by 30% to 40% a year, then we might see some profit-taking. From my perspective, the most important factor in the domestic market is, ultimately, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. In the semiconductor sector, exports are continuously increasing. Of course, semiconductor exports have been rising since 2020 and 2021, but the peak for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix was in January 2021. Many people may be contemplating this situation. Yes, I believe the current semiconductor cycle began after smartphones were released, and then there was a sudden surge with the emergence of YouTube and improvements in internet speed.

As performance improved, we suddenly encountered what is called a super cycle. What was that moment? It was when big tech companies began investing in data centers. With the emergence of smartphones, it became clear that data could be monetized, and securing data centers became essential for attracting customers. The presence of data centers could actually lead to significant business opportunities, which is how we connected to the idea of a super cycle. 

However, I think the logic is similar to what we're experiencing now with the emergence of L&M. Initially, there were doubts about whether this would be profitable. But as time passed, especially those in the gaming industry began to notice. If you listen to interviews with people in the gaming sector, everyone acknowledges that coding has become easier. However,

What is being discussed recently is that rendering is becoming easier, and 3D graphic work is also said to be significantly simplified. With AI, animations and various creations can be made, resulting in a tremendous increase in efficiency compared to the workforce required in the past. When the metaverse emerged, there were questions about its effectiveness, specifically what benefits it could provide. If it genuinely reduces costs, companies are inclined to invest. Even if it doesn't generate direct profit, reducing costs itself can be seen as a financial gain. Following that, the goal is to attract new customers, which essentially means expanding the market. The current AI technology serves to reduce internal costs, and the focus is on how we can develop our business model from this point.

Now is the stage where we need to conduct research. As I mentioned earlier, I believe Google has provided all the hints. Investing more is safer than investing less; it is essential to invest more. This means that even if companies like Google, Microsoft, or Apple are not making money right now, what is crucial in the market, similar to the data center supercycle in the past, is that we must invest in AI semiconductors. By operating AI semiconductors, we can utilize data centers effectively. From this perspective, Samsung Electronics is somewhat weak in HBM, but in the data center sector, it still holds the top capacity. In the case of Hynix, I don't think Micron's yield for HBM is that impressive. Although Samsung has passed the HBM3 test, that volume is primarily for the Chinese market, which has the highest demand.

Samsung has not yet been able to compete with the volume of products from the United States. Therefore, Hynix is still alive in the HBM market. Samsung Electronics, in its own right, is also involved in on-device AI and has similar expectations for data centers regarding HBM. Considering the overall scale of these aspects, Samsung Electronics is still in a position where, if RAM prices rise and NAND prices increase, they will make a good profit. For Hynix, this is a significant change and development cycle, and with both factors overlapping, I believe there is currently no major concern in the semiconductor sector. In terms of AI, if we see signs of a downturn in our investment boom, we should consider fleeing. However, I don't think it's time to sell and run away just yet, and the main reason for this is...

Big tech companies, whether it makes money or not, literally hope for a plus. Right now, we need to invest and reduce internal costs. After securing that, we must develop technologies that can potentially make money in order to survive. I believe this situation is very beneficial for our country. 

To summarize, regarding the domestic stock market, the leading sectors this year have been cosmetics, transformers, shipbuilding, defense, and semiconductors. The reason these sectors have risen is that their performance has been good. Although they are currently undergoing adjustments, the general sentiment is that they will rise further. 

Now, regarding semiconductors, I would like to ask a follow-up question. As you mentioned, the market environment for our country's semiconductor companies is not bad.

The fact that it is not true is correct. Nonetheless, based on Hynix, even after announcing good results last week, the stock price continues to decline. This suggests that there are some concerns. For instance, Jim Keller announced an AI chip yesterday, but it reportedly does not include HBM. This kind of noise creates a situation where those who want to realize profits might feel compelled to sell. Moreover, there are discussions that Nvidia has recently crossed an important technical line. It seems that foreign investors are already selling a lot of Nvidia shares. It appears that there are various concerns in this situation, and I’m curious about your thoughts on this. I feel the same way about Hynix, TSMC, and Google.

I sold the other AI-related companies in early July. It's not an issue of performance. The current stock prices related to AI are influenced by individual company issues, but ultimately, it's about companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, and AR. Their direction is the most important. If we look back just a month ago, even if Hynix was dropping, if Nvidia went up, it would recover the next day and continue to rise. However, it’s coincidental that Hynix peaked and fell around the time of the earnings announcement, but there were signals before that. What happened was that Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple all broke below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages at the same time. This created sell signals based on those moving averages.

The moving averages that could be broken simultaneously fell, and companies we referred to as AI-related leaders also saw their stocks decline globally. It is true that SK Hynix's performance was somewhat disappointing. This is because, as of early July, the market expectation was that the operating profit would hit 4 trillion won. In the report, it was projected to be in the low to mid-4 trillion won range. However, after seeing Samsung Electronics' results and Nvidia's stock rising, it seemed that, during the 2 to 3 weeks in July, the consensus for SK Hynix's second-quarter operating profit target increased from the mid-4 trillion won range to the mid-5 trillion won range, which is an increase of over 20%. They announced it targeting the mid-5 trillion won range. However, the day before Hynix's earnings announcement, I can't recall where, but a certain securities firm...

5.8 trillion was recorded. Tomorrow's earnings announcement is expected to be in the upper 5 trillion range, which has really inflated market expectations. Now, there are rumors that the street consensus is much higher than that. Yes, yes, we discussed this because Samsung Electronics has indeed shown unbelievable results. So, regarding that, Hynix is saying, Hey, we're currently looking at 4 trillion, but shouldn't we be seeing 6 trillion instead? Only then can we shout for Hynix to reach 300,000 won. I have heard voices expressing that sentiment. However, in this context, with the adjustment in the Nasdaq, if Hynix's earnings disappoint and profit-taking occurs, Hynix should have dropped while Nvidia and Microsoft remained stable.

This is a situation where companies that have been rising globally in the first half of the year are now realizing profits. As a result, there are trade ideas suggesting to sell technology stocks in the U.S. and buy the Russell 2000. We are currently entering a profit-taking phase for the leading stocks of the first half of the year. Stocks cannot just keep rising indefinitely. Consequently, similar profit-taking is occurring in our country as well. In my case, I focus on just one thing: NVIDIA's earnings report. Jim Keller made an announcement yesterday regarding a startup he founded. For those who know Jim Keller, he is the person who designed the semiconductors that serve as the foundation for the current iPhone. He also rescued AMD from its difficult situation and contributed to Tesla's autonomous driving technology.

This person has laid the foundation. He is now saying that he has started his own company to design AI semiconductors and aims to take down NVIDIA. In the case of AMD, they have already taken down Intel, and Apple has completely overtaken the existing smartphone market. Tesla has also disrupted the traditional automotive industry. This is why people are hopeful. However, the key point here is why NVIDIA is so impressive. It's not only because there is a clear demand for NVIDIA's products and platform, but also because no other companies can produce AI semiconductors aside from NVIDIA. The only company that can produce them is TSMC, and currently, TSMC is already allocating most of its capacity to Apple and NVIDIA in advanced processes. Now, regarding AMD, even if they want to sell, they are facing challenges.

Even if we want to place an order, we cannot do so. When we try to place an order with TSMC, it is said that the unit price does not match. In a way, we are continuously securing volumes through ongoing agreements with various companies. During this process, we are overflowing with confidence. Just make it for us, and we will respond. In a way, TSMC is entering into contracts like that, but if TSMC cannot produce more, then no matter how much Jim Keller or even Jim Keller's grandfather wants to sell their AI semiconductors, they cannot sell them if they cannot be produced. The question of when TSMC's capacity will be expanded is for the end of this year. Additionally, if we proceed with the advanced process, ASML is also in the cycle of upgrading and replacing its equipment. That equipment will be available next year, and for the products to be made, it will be in the second half of next year.

In a way, upgrades are also happening in the ecosystem. Leading this is ASML, and in this situation of upgrades, AI semiconductors have emerged. However, there is still no AI semiconductor with such strong demand that it can break through Nvidia's stronghold. AMD is currently in second place, but they are also producing semiconductors based on Nvidia's CUDA architecture. The reason for this is that the power of the platform is too strong, and the technological standards that Nvidia has presented are also very robust. There is currently no technology or company that can propose standards that surpass these. Therefore, in this regard, I believe that the emergence of Jim Keller is a positive development. The legendary semiconductor figure has ventured into AI semiconductors, highlighting how significant the market is. If that happens,

We need to focus on just one thing: NVIDIA's operating profit margin is gradually declining. Inflation is the same. When inflation gradually decreases, we talk about a soft landing. However, if inflation drops sharply in our market, we discuss a recession. I believe that NVIDIA's operating profit margin will follow the same trend as inflation; it will decline. Why? Because if it doesn't decline, the cost burden of AI semiconductors will continue to rise. This means that it would be better for us to buy NVIDIA chips at a lower price to create something and show it to the public. If NVIDIA chips remain expensive, it will only lead to a situation where they are making money without any real progress. Therefore, it is only natural that the margin should decline. The important question is how quickly this decline will happen.

When looking at the operating profit margin based on certain criteria, if the operating profit margin is at 60%, then it might drop by 2 to 3% every quarter. In that case, it could go down to 5%. However, if it drops by 5%, 7%, or even 10%, then it might be heading towards failure. Therefore, in this regard, when the operating profit is announced, the market's analysis will determine the atmosphere. If the sentiment is that market demand is still strong, the market may continue to maintain high prices. Conversely, if the assessment is that demand has completely slowed down and that it may not be profitable, especially if there's a sharp decline, we should closely observe the market's reaction. When NVIDIA's performance declines and another company rises, it may indicate that AI can continue to improve. The situation can vary depending on the circumstances, but at least for this year, there doesn't seem to be any company that can surpass NVIDIA.

We need to observe whether a company can surpass NVIDIA. In that situation, we should also consider whether the demand for AI semiconductors is decreasing. If we keep tracking these factors, I believe we can experience a significant upward trend during this super cycle. It seems that this phase is not over yet. Regarding NVIDIA, the operating profit margin is gradually declining, which is a point to watch. In terms of timing, it looks like this will be around mid-August, as it has been pushed to August 28th. We should monitor the situation until then. If there are any adjustments due to various noises, it could present a buying opportunity. Overall, NVIDIA's performance remains solid, along with its technological capabilities.

When we consider these aspects from the perspective of the sun's influence, we ultimately need to reflect on U.S. stocks and the concerns surrounding them. This is about the valuation of big tech companies. There has been talk about M7—whether it's good or not—and it seems to fluctuate quite a bit. The term miserable M7 has even come up. It feels like there's been a lot of back and forth already. Although they've already risen significantly, I think the core issue is the valuation. Since they have increased a lot, it seems we are in a phase where corrections are expected. Now, should we buy into the Nasdaq during this correction? As I mentioned earlier, until Nvidia's earnings report, I believe the market can rise or fall without much justification. However, I think the upside is limited for now.

The core of the story is that right now, Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Google, and Tesla need to invest even though it may not be profitable. It is natural for there to be controversies regarding overvaluation. Currently, especially in the market, there are discussions about OpenAI and Google's services, such as the one they are providing, which is paid. Recently, a report came out in the United States stating that, rather than OpenAI and Google, it is actually the competition from Meta's open-source, free LLM called Llama that is intensifying. There are concerns that Llama's market share could increase, which could pose a threat to the OpenAI ecosystem.

To elaborate, OpenAI is well-known, and you can think of ChatGPT when you hear the name. However, even though it is called OpenAI, it is not truly open; the algorithms are not open-source.

Now, Llama is an open-source project, so many people can come and go freely to see it. Recently, there has been a lot of talk about the competition surrounding Llama, and it's quite frightening. There are rumors that OpenAI is feeling the pressure. However, from our perspective, this is a good thing, right? It means that they are feeling the competition and need to innovate more. The key issue here can be described as an arms race. The same applies to Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla, and Apple, which is expected to unveil its intelligence next year. This applies to Meta as well. Recently, I found out where the most chips from NVIDIA have been purchased.

I haven't been able to check for about one or two months, but even until the first quarter of this year, there is still a meta for Microsoft. The reason they bought so much is because they believe it will make money. In a way, it feels like they are risking their lives to dive in. Google also mentioned this recently, saying, We have no choice but to over-invest; we need to run. That’s a really important statement. It means that Microsoft, Google, and Meta are all in the same boat. So, whether they are currently in the red or not is not a concern for them; they are saying they will take the hit because they are making money. Therefore, their growth rate is significant. Recently, Microsoft is set to announce its earnings tonight. As of the time of filming, the earnings report will come out tomorrow morning. If you look at the EPS for the last four quarters, it has remained at $2.90, showing no growth in EPS over those quarters. Even with stock buybacks and retirements, it has remained stagnant.

The sound means that net profit is in a state of negative growth. However, stock prices continue to rise, which is burdensome. Therefore, what I think is most important right now is Microsoft's earnings report. The way the market reacts to it could lead to a further decline in big tech stocks, and the Nasdaq could drop even more. But who can turn around our current fears and anxieties and plunge us into a state of excitement? It's a big deal. So, right now, we have Mr. Tom Lee in the U.S., who is quite famous and has been making predictions with remarkable accuracy lately. Mr. Tom Lee says that until August, the rally will be interesting. However, it seems that until the earnings report from Nvidia is released, the Nasdaq...

기술에 대한 기대감이 낮아졌다고 할 수 있습니다. 그런데 많은 사람들이 그렇게 생각하고 있습니다. 왜냐하면 이미 차트는 하락세를 보이고 있기 때문입니다. 시장을 열광시킬 만한 내용은 다른 기업에서 나올 수 없습니다. 애플의 경우에도 인공지능 시장을 열광시킬 만한 이슈가 있습니다. 이는 말 그대로 AI가 온디바이스로 넘어가는 것이기 때문입니다. 내년에 출시될 예정인데, 이미 연기된 발표가 있었습니다. 그러면 남은 것은 딱 하나입니다. 그 부분은 결국 우리가 8월 28일, 아마 20일일 거예요. 8월 말에 나오는 MD 실적입니다. 와, 이번에도 영업 이익률이 이렇게 잘 나와서 정말 대단합니다. 연말이 되면 세대 교체도 이루어지는데, 도대체 얼마나 많은 돈을 벌려고 하는 것인지 궁금합니다. 결국 엔비디아의 실적 발표까지는 시간이 좀 남아 있기 때문에, 저 같은 경우에는 지금은 하드웨어 제조사와 소프트웨어 제조사에 대한 관심을 조금 더 가져야 할 것 같습니다.

I want to point out that you need to look at the distinctions. When our investments in the cloud were continuing, the semiconductor companies in our country were doing very well, right? The companies related to data centers were also doing great. However, after their cycle peaked, the companies that made really big profits were the big tech firms. For example, Samsung Electronics went up significantly, and at one point, it reached 2.5 million won. After that, there were issues with stock splits, and it shot up rapidly, but then it crashed hard, and if we convert that to stock prices, it probably fell to around 30,000 won at one point, which was a huge drop. We have continuously seen such cycles of decline. The current situation is that it is right to focus on hardware. When the investment in hardware enters a phase of stagnation, and sufficient resources are secured, that’s when cash flow will start to increase significantly.

In a way, we might expect the M7 to rise even more. The current situation with M7 is that there is a lot of anticipation regarding making money. I've been investing in the U.S. market for about seven to eight years now, and I remember the first time I saw Microsoft's price-to-earnings ratio. Microsoft's P/E ratio has now reached four times. So, on a forward basis, which means based on next year's earnings, it's slightly lower, around 30 times. Nevertheless, what you need to distinguish is this: among the M7, while AMD is indeed part of the M7, the so-called software companies that can be considered non-tech include Microsoft and possibly Apple, along with companies like Google and Meta. These companies are in the position of buyers of AMD's chips, and the more expensive they buy AMD's chips, the more...

Earnings can't help but improve, and because of that, valuations are bound to be high, making it somewhat difficult for companies to find a breakthrough and see their stock prices rise for the time being. However, I think we should pay attention to Nvidia's earnings report coming out in August. To summarize, it seems that Nvidia hasn't been unaffected by the market, as it has also experienced a correction of about 20% from its peak. In fact, it has dropped more than 20%. This means that the valuation burden has eased somewhat, but if the earnings report comes out well, it will be at the end of August. That gives us about a month. During this month, we need to hold back and be patient. It's a holding strategy, I suppose. Shall we also talk about macro factors? Since you're here, it's been a while. This week, there will be an FMC meeting, and there are various macro-related variables to discuss as well.

Do you have any thoughts on this? In my case, I believe that interest rates are always a positive factor. I've mentioned to my team that the Federal Reserve will manage things well. Recently, economic indicators have been declining rapidly, which has led to discussions in the market about whether a rate cut should happen in July. It seems that a cut in July might be difficult, so now there are talks about a big step down in September. But what does this mean? It seems like the market is somewhat panicking. Since our market looks challenging, they're essentially asking the Federal Reserve if they could lower interest rates a bit faster, given that inflation has sufficiently decreased. Ultimately, even if the Federal Reserve doesn't take action, several factors will influence the situation.

The word time will no longer be used; instead, we will use the word procedure. We will definitely talk about the fact that interest rates will be adjusted soon. When that happens, the market will respond, right? Recently, if you look at the FMC, you can see that the fluctuations in the stock market due to the FMC have not been significant. If you observe the week before the FMC, the index remains stable. In 2022 and 2023, we had to closely monitor every FMC meeting because the direction would change dramatically, with rates moving by 10% within a few days. However, that is not the case now. I think this is due to the influence of Nick Timiraos, the journalist. He has been providing information in advance, so everyone knows what to expect. Therefore, in this situation, ultimately, money flows into and out of the market, which causes asset prices to rise and fall.

If you look at it, the M2 money supply in the United States is increasing. Who is increasing the M2 money supply? In 2020, it was the Federal Reserve. Now, it is the Treasury that is taking the lead. So, the steering wheel is not in the hands of the Federal Reserve anymore; it is with the Treasury. Therefore, what the market is currently anxious about is how the Treasury will issue bonds in the third quarter and how it will handle short-term and long-term bonds. That is what everyone is focusing on. It’s not always the same that the market considers important. In 2021 and 2022, inflation data was much more important. Last year, how we would raise interest rates was crucial. The way inflation data would drop was also very important. But now, the unemployment rate is more important.

The issuance of bonds and the schedule for bond issuance have become increasingly important. In the current market, a significant turning point may come when Treasury Secretary Yellen retires next year after the presidential transition. Until then, the statements from the Treasury will carry more weight. From this perspective, it is crucial to monitor the Treasury's plans rather than focusing solely on the Fed's comments. We are trying to interpret everything with an emphasis on macro indicators, especially the unemployment rate. Therefore, you should pay attention to the market's sentiment centered around the unemployment rate. If, at this point, we see a rate cut based on month-over-month data and inflation rebounds, it could become a major issue in the second half of this year. When interest rates are lowered, one...

I lowered it twice. So, what should we do about the economy? I'm worried because of that. I lowered it twice; what if inflation goes up? Right now, there are parts where the Fed is still wavering. As a result, it doesn't matter that inflation is dropping in Europe and Canada. If inflation rebounds in the U.S. and consumer spending bounces back, discussions about inflation may arise again. In that context, the Fed will have to say something like, We'll be cautious; just hang in there. Given that situation, if we say, The data is not good, but we will lower the interest rates quickly, and the moment the Fed lowers rates, if inflation spikes, the market will react negatively. What you need to focus on now is the inflation rate compared to last month, the unemployment rate, and the Treasury's situation.

Focusing on bond issuance plans and studying in that area seems important. The macro direction is to avoid systemic crashes, so preparing macroeconomically by following that path might be the right approach. You mentioned the comparison between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury, and I think it can be expressed like this: The Federal Reserve has been printing money, essentially creating money out of nothing, while the Treasury takes money away. Through bond issuance, the U.S. is no longer printing money; instead, they are extracting it. They tell the retail investors in Korea, We’ll give you more interest, so hand over your money, which means they are taking money from investors around the world and using it however they want. This structure, as you mentioned, leads to...

Now, it is true that there is a high level of interest in the Federal Reserve, but at some point, it became clear that the Fed is not going to release money; they are just holding onto it. The responsibility for releasing money falls on the government. This is why there is talk about paying close attention to Yellen's statements. However, the issue is this: we are approaching an election. The Fed, as well as Yellen, has one last bit of power left. We do not know when this will end, so it is crucial to consider when this card will be played. 

In terms of the global electoral landscape, one thing I am sensing is the atmosphere surrounding hate politics. When President Biden first resigned, there was curiosity about who would step up, especially with Trump being so strong.

There were concerns about whether Trump could be defeated, but the moment the Vice President became a presidential candidate, the approval ratings tied with just a 1% difference. The sentiment in the market right now is that we shouldn't allow that person to become president. Given that President Biden has been showing some risky behavior, it has led to a significant rise in Trump's approval ratings. However, as soon as Harris came back into the picture, the approval ratings became equal again. It's said to be a close race. My report is important, and the Federal Reserve's actions will certainly be crucial as well. If the economy doesn't completely crash, and stock prices don't fall by 20-30%, we will ultimately head towards a politics of hatred. In the past, ordinary people like us, as Korean investors, were concerned about who the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury was, what time the FOMC meetings were held, and who the chairperson was in New York.

연준 총재는 누군지, 그 사람이 무슨 말을 했는지는 아무도 몰랐습니다. 다 압니다. 그리고 지금은 해리스도 마찬가지고, 바이든도 마찬가지고, 트럼프도 마찬가지입니다. 그 사람들이 지금 무슨 말을 하고 어떤 생각을 하고 있는지까지도 SNS에 다 공개되고 있습니다. 그러니까 저는 재무부와 연준이 분명히 선거에 영향을 미칠 수 있다고 생각하지만, 그 영향은 크지 않을 거라고 생각합니다. 그리고 그것 때문에 선거에 역사에 오점이 남을 만큼 큰 이벤트가 발생할 것 같지는 않습니다. 만약 주가가 빠져 있다면, 지금 주식 시장이 많이 떨어진다면, 연준이 재무부와 함께 나서서 부양할 수 있겠죠. 사람들이 비싸서 도망가고 있고, 비싸서 관망하고 있는 이 시장에서 당장 금리 인하를 7월에 0.5% 하고 9월에 0.5% 하는 것이 아닌 이상 해야 합니다.

The market can't be going crazy, and it won't influence the election results. So, I think the reason Trump is making more statements about cryptocurrencies is because of this. Stock market participants are already well-informed, and those who can create more votes for themselves seem to be leaning towards cryptocurrencies. Trump seems to be taking the lead in this area, and Harris is also responding, which indicates that they are trying to create something new in the cryptocurrency market. This may involve competition with China, but they are also generating new issues to secure their election. At this point, I don't think the stock market, the Treasury, or the Federal Reserve will have a significant impact on this election. If the stock index continues to drop throughout August, and if the Nasdaq...

If it drops to 4,800, then the government and the treasury could take significant actions. But for now, people are still holding back; everyone thinks that way, but there isn't much that has actually dropped. Since we've brought it up, should we buy Bitcoin? In my opinion, with cryptocurrencies, it's best to only allocate about 5% of your assets. There could be discussions about the Great Reset and other factors. If a debt crisis occurs that we cannot prevent, and if our currency truly collapses, then Bitcoin could indeed skyrocket. It could serve as a solution in that scenario. However, even if that doesn't happen, I believe Bitcoin will continue to receive protection. The reason is that many asset holders around the world, especially a majority of people in the U.S., are already invested in Bitcoin.

There are statistical data showing that many people are exposed to, receive, and hold Bitcoin. If the United States recognizes Bitcoin officially, I believe it will ultimately affect inflation negatively. Therefore, I would suggest that for Bitcoin, maintaining a position of around 5% while continuing to study and trade or hold it could be a good approach. This is a very important point. In our country, we can't afford for housing prices to drop because it would cause serious issues, given how many people are invested in real estate. Similarly, in the United States, stock prices cannot fall. This is why there are jokes and serious discussions about the Treasury Secretary being responsible for managing stock prices.

Bitcoin is gradually becoming an asset that we can't ignore. Given this, the possibility of inflation decreasing is certainly there. Today, we had Mr. Teiber join us, and I was able to ask him everything I wanted to know. He spoke so openly that I wondered if many had just come from the hospital this morning. Despite being in pain, he came here to share his insights, so I ask for a round of applause, encouragement, and support for Mr. Teiber. We will say goodbye for now and see you next time. Thank you.

폭풍뒤에 뜨는 무지개? AI 반도체 반등할까? | 설명왕 테이버 [풀영상]

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