We're whipsawing a bit on the day SEMA,
but in general Nvidia Intel, some of the chip stocks playing well.
A key part once again is this the ongoing narrative.
It certainly seems to be the case. You know, it's funny because when we
came into the year, the expectation that this would look very, very different to
2023, that you have a broader set of rallies, not just focus on those big
tech companies and then up with six months.
And actually this year looks so much like 2023 where those mega caps are
still carrying the market. I think the one slight difference, which
I think we've got to build on a narrative for the second half of the
year, though, is that whereas, you know, the Mega-cap firms are still expected,
we expect them to continue to do really well.
We are expecting to see that risk appetite and deliberately broaden out
beyond just those tech companies.

So you see some other companies joining in with this positive news. See my head's at in San Francisco, so I'm just back from like a classic July 4th long weekend in the U.S. where we sit around the table and people say, Hey, have you seen a video? Like, what's what's that thing about in video? And then they bring up interest rates and then they brought up the election. But I think the fair thing to say is everyone was kind of asking in financial markets, what is the thing right now that's the main driver or is it a combination of all three? Well. So I think, you know, at the moment, if the equity markets in general, clearly the major driver is still about mega caps in video, the the max seven, they continue to really be those major foundations for the equity market rally. At the same time, you are still seeing some kind of optimism feeding into the market with these expectations.

The Fed rate cuts, which we would certainly agree with, and then with the US election, that's adding volatility. But we do think that volatility would be sustained for much beyond the election. So not something that we continue to be worried about seem to go global because we know you can, and that's why we love you. Look, UK just had elections. France was still trying to work it out. US we have that anxiety is us the place to play for equities and indeed for bonds? Yeah. So the election uncertainty that you've seen unfold in Europe has been somewhat damaging. I think when we think about Europe, investors for the first time in years, actually just about three months ago, started to get really interested in Europe again, started to see some earnings delivery, some slight cyclical upturn, and had become interested. And then what you see now is that this political turmoil seems to unravel some of that optimism that have been feeding

through.
So now we're looking back to the US. Now, obviously the US has its own
election volatility on the rise in the last couple of weeks, and certainly we
would expect that to continue through to November.
But actually when you look out over and another, you know, not just focusing on
the next six months, but really taking more of a long-term perspective, that
secular bull run that you see for the US, which is really built on these
technology companies, we think that that will still be sustained.
So, you know, of course there's opportunities elsewhere.
This always makes sense to diversify and try and get exposure to other markets.
But actually as a foundational element of a portfolio, we still think that the
US is the one that really deserves the overweight.

Stocks Kick Off the Week at All Time Highs

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