선거일을 앞둔 시장 동향 및 예측

### 시장 전망: 연방정부 감세와 다가오는 선거의 영향
* 📉 모건 스탠리는 **제너럴 모터스를 포함한 자동차 섹터의 주가가 5% 하락**했다며 투자의견을 하향 조정했습니다.
* 📊 펀드스트랫의 리서치 책임자인 톰 리는 연방준비제도의 최근 조치가 **양적완화 사이클을 시작**했으며, 역사적으로 **3~6개월 후 시장에 도움이 될 것**으로 보고 있습니다.
* 🗳 그러나 그는 **40일 앞으로 다가온 선거**로 인해 많은 투자자들이 선거 이후까지 기다렸다가 자금을 투입하는 것을 선호하기 때문에 연준 이후 시장 랠리가 크게 지연될 수 있다고 지적합니다.
* 📈 역사적으로 선거가 있는 해에는 **11월과 12월에 강한 상승세**를 보였으며, 특히 상반기에 시장이 **10% 이상 상승**한 경우가 많았습니다.
* 🔍 리는 경기 침체를 의심하는 투자자의 비율이 높지만, **핵심 PCE와 같은 향후 경제 지표에서 인플레이션이 통제**되고 있다는 것이 확인되면 '연착륙' 관점으로 다시 전환할 것으로 예상합니다.
* 💡 그는 **향후 3~6개월 동안 시장의 상승 가능성**을 인정하지만, 현재 밸류에이션으로 인해 단기적으로 공격적인 예측을 하는 것은 조심스럽습니다.
* 💻 기술주 실적이 저조하면 **S&P 500 전체 상승을 저해**할 수 있기 때문에 기술주 성과가 중요할 것입니다.
* 🌏 이 대표는 또한 최근 중국의 경제 성과에서 긍정적인 신호가 나타나고 있으며, 이는 **중국이 글로벌 시장에 영향을 미치고 특히 사치품과 같은 특정 부문에 혜택**을 줄 수 있다고 보고 있습니다.

톰 리는 현재의 불확실성에도 불구하고 대선 이후 주식 시장이 반등할 것으로 예상합니다.

WE'RE WATCHING AUTO STOCKS, TOO. MORGAN STANLEY OUT OF JONAS, DOWNGRADED THE SPACE, INCLUDING MOVING GENERAL MOTORS TO UNDERPERFORM. THAT STOCK DOWN BY 5%. IT TAKES US TO THE TALK OF THE TAPE. HOW MUCH MORE CAN STOCKS RISE? TOM LEE IS FUND STRAT'S HEAD OF RESEARCH, CNBC CONTRIBUTOR. LIVE AT POST NINE. NICE TO SEE YOU. SINCE THE FED DID THE JUMBO CUT, THE MARKET HASN'T DONE MUCH EXCEPT FOR LAST THURSDAY. WHY? >> YOU KNOW, I THINK THE FED UNLEASHED US ON AN EASING CYCLE, AND THAT'S GOING TO BE POSITIVE. WE KNOW IT'S ACTUALLY HISTORICALLY POSITIVE, THREE MONTHS, SIX MONTHS OUT.

WHAT STOCKS DO IN THE NEXT MONTH IS A COIN FLIP. I THINK THAT'S WHAT WE'RE SEEING BECAUSE THERE'S SOME REPOSITIONING THAT TOOK PLACE. AND WE'RE THINKING ABOUT THE 40 DAYS UNTIL THE ELECTION. >> SO DOES THE FACT THAT THE ELECTION IS BUT 40 DAYS AWAY SORT OF RUIN THE PERFECT SCENARIO FOR STOCKS TO GET THAT POST-FED BUMP? >> I THINK IT DELAYS IT. JUST BECAUSE -- IN THE CONFERENCES THAT I'VE BEEN SPEAKING TO -- SPEAKING AT AND SEEING WEALTH MANAGERS AND FAMILY OFFICES, A LOT DON'T WANT TO COMMIT CAPITAL UNTIL AFTER ELECTION DAY. THEY WANT TO GET THAT EVENT BEHIND THEM. >> YOU THINK WE'RE GOING TO HAVE

A DASH TO THE FINISH AFTER ELECTION DAY IS OUT OF THE WAY? >> YEAH. AND THAT'S PRETTY TYPICAL. IN FACT, IN ELECTION YEARS, THE NOVEMBER-DECEMBER RALLIES ARE TREMENDOUS. IN FACT, WHEN MARKETS ARE UP MORE THAN 10% IN THE FIRST HALF, YOU ALSO GET BIG RALLIES NOVEMBER, DECEMBER. SORT OF CHOPPY THROUGH SEPTEMBER. >> YOU THINK INVESTORS ARE SOLD ON THE IDEA THAT THE ECONOMY IS GOING TO MAKE IT THROUGH, THE FED'S GOING TO PULL THIS OFF? IS ANY OF WHAT WE'VE WITNESSED SINCE FED DAY DOUBTS ABOUT THE BIGGER PICTURE? >> SO FAR, SO GOOD. THIS FRIDAY, WE GET CORE PCE, AND HOPEFULLY, THAT CONFIRMS INFLATION IS NO LONGER ON THE

FRONT BURNER. I WOULD SAY ONE THING I'VE NOTICED IS THAT THE NUMBER OF INVESTORS AND PROFESSIONAL MONEY MANAGERS THAT THINK WE'RE ALREADY IN A RECESSION IS VERY HIGH. AND SO I THINK THE EVIDENCE JUST HAS TO BE BETTER THAN EXPECTED, AND I THINK THOSE VIEWS SHIFT BACK TO SOFT LANDING. >> WHEN WE'VE SEEN RECENTLY TARGETS FOR THE S&P, BRIAN BELSKI, THE LATEST TO RAISE THE TARGET TO THE HIGHEST ON THE STREET. I'VE ASKED YOU ABOUT THE MARKET LATELY, YOU HAVEN'T SOUNDED LIKE YOU WOULD BE RAISING YOUR OWN TARGET TO A DEGREE LIKE THAT, WOULD YOU? >> YOU KNOW, I THINK THERE IS A LOT OF UPSIDE IN THE FORESEEABLE

FUTURE. LET'S SAY THREE, SIX MONTHS OUT. BUT FOR SOMEONE TO TACTICALLY SAY WE NEED TO PEN A 6,000 TARGET AND THEN PUT MONEY TO WORK TODAY, I THINK IT'S HARDER TO MAKE THAT CASE BECAUSE VALUATIONS AREN'T ON THE CHEAPER END, AND WE'VE ALREADY HAD A FAIRLY SIZABLE MOVE. I'M NOT SAYING I'M LIKE BEARISH NOW, BUT TO ME I'M -- I HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE SAYING THREE, SIX MONTHS OUT. THINGS ARE ATTRACTIVE. THINGS LIKE MARGIN DEBT. IT'S DECREASED IN AUGUST, MEANING INVESTORS HAVE BEEN DELEVERAGING. IT HASN'T GONE ANYWHERE FOR THE LAST FOUR MONTHS AT A TIME WHEN MARKETS ARE RISING. >> I GUESS MY POINT WOULD BE IT

WOULD HAVE BEEN BETTER ARTICULATED TO JUST SAY YOU DON'T SOUND AS BULLISH AS YOU USUALLY ARE. IS THAT FAIR? >> YOU KNOW, YES. I'M BULLISH INTO YEAR END, BUT I'M LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT HOW MARKETS BEHAVE INTO ELECTION DAY. AND NOT THAT I THINK WE'RE GOING TO HAVE A HUGE DRAWDOWN, IF WE DO HAVE A BIG DRAWDOWN, I'D BE BUYING THAT DIP. BUT I ALSO DON'T THINK WE CAN MAKE NEW HIGHS AND THEN SEE THE MARKET BLAST OFF AFTER ELECTION DAY. SO I'D RATHER SORT OF SAY THINGS LOOK A LOT BETTER AFTER ELECTION DAY. >> CAN WE MAKE NEW HIGHS IN TECH DOESN'T RESUME ITS LEADERSHIP ROLE IN ANYWHERE CLOSE TO THE DEGREE THAT IT HAD? >> AS LONG AS TECH IS A MARKET

PERFORMER -- IF TECH DECLINES, THAT'S GOING TO BE HARD FOR THE REST OF THE S&P 500 TO COMPENSATE. BUT WHAT WE'VE SEEN SO FAR, INCLUDING THE DAYS LIKE NVIDIA AND TESLA RECENTLY, IS THAT TECH IS ACTUALLY HOLDING ITS OWN, BUT OTHER STOCKS ARE STARTING TO SHOW CATALYSTS AND SIGNS OF LIFE. >> WHAT ABOUT THE BROADENING TRADE? I MEAN, YOU LOOK AT THE RUSSELL, YOUR BIG CALL, OF COURSE. TWO WEEK DATE, DOWN MORE THAN -- WEEK TO DATE, DOWN MORE THAN 1%. HASN'T DONE MUCH. I KEEP HEARING YOU GOT TO WAIT UNTIL THE FED CUTS, THEN GO INTO THE RUSSELL. I DON'T KNOW. WHAT DO YOU THINK? >> RUSSELL HAD A BIG WEEK LAST WEEK.

SOME PROFIT TAKING NOW. I THINK THAT THERE'S -- THIS IS WHAT BOTTOMS LOOK LIKE. I DON'T THINK BOTTOMS ARE STRAIGHT UP. I KNOW IN 2021 ENERGY WAS BOTTOMING, AND IT WAS ALSO VERY CHOPPY. BUT EVENTUALLY MADE NOT ONLY NEW HIGHS BUT THEN BASICALLY HAD A BLISTERING GAIN IN 2020 AND THE YEAR FOLLOWING. I THINK THAT'S A MULTIYEAR START FOR THE RUSSELL. IT FEELS CHOPPY, BUT WE'RE STILL NEAR ALL-TIME HIGHS. AND THERE'S A BIG FUNDAMENTAL CASE TO OWN SMALL CAPS. >> SOME HAVE MADE THE CASE THAT THERE ARE A LOT OF AREAS OF THE MARKET THAT ARE OVERCROWDED AT THE POINT. SO MANY SECTORS HAVE GONE UP A BUNCH. YOU LOOK AT INDUSTRIALS AND

UTILITIES AND OTHER THINGS THAT HAVE TRADED NEAR OR AT HIGHS. THEREFORE, THEY FIND BETTER VALUE IN BONDS. WHAT DO YOU THINK? >> YOU KNOW, I THINK A BOND INVESTOR IS BUYING A BOND FOR A DIFFERENT REASON THAN BUYING AN EQUITY. BECAUSE AN EQUITY GIVES YOU NOT ONLY INFLATION PROTECTION AND BENEFIT FROM FALLING YIELDS, BUT ALSO CAPITAL APPRECIATION AND POSITIVE SURPRISE. BONDS RARELY GIVE YOU POSITIVE SURPRISE. I THINK A BOND INVESTOR SHOULD -- SOMEONE SHOULD HAVE SOME INCOME WITH SOME CAPITAL UPSIDE THERE. BUT THERE ARE SO MANY GOOD OPPORTUNITIES. AND YOU KNOW, THE FACT THAT CHINA HAS STARTED TO ACTUALLY PERFORM BETTER AND POTENTIALLY

BROKEN OUT, THAT'S AGAIN A BRENT SIGNAL. THAT'S BEEN A BIG DRAG THE LAST FEW YEARS. >> HOW ABOUT THAT? DO YOU FEEL LIKE THE MOVE THAT HAPPENED IN CHINA IS A GAME CHANGER ON HOW WE SHOULD VIEW WHAT THE POTENTIAL TURN IN THEIR ECONOMY MEANS FOR THE OVERALL MARKETS? I MEAN COULD WE'VE SEEN CERTAIN STOCKS GET A NICE BOOST. SOME OF THE LUXURY GOODS COMPANIES. LVMP, ESTEE LAUDER, ET CETERA. WHAT ABOUT THE BIGGER PICTURE? >> YOU KNOW, IT'S HARD TO TELL WHAT'S A TRADING RALLY VERSUS A BOTTOM FOR CHINA. I SPENT SOME TIME TALKING TO OUR TECHNICAL STRATEGIST. HE THINKS THIS IS A BONA FIDE BREAKOUT, AND IT IS COMING ON

What stocks do in the next month is a 'coin flip' due to election, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee

CNBC Television

모건 스탠리는 5% 하락한 제너럴 모터스를 포함한 자동차 섹터를 하향 조정했습니다.

펀드스트랫의 톰 리는 연준의 완화 기조가 장기적으로 시장에 긍정적인 영향을 미칠 것으로 보지만 다음 달은 불확실하다고 말했습니다.

40일 앞으로 다가온 대선으로 인해 자산 관리자들이 자본 투입을 주저하고 있어 연준 이후 증시 상승이 지연될 가능성이 있습니다.

일반적으로 11월과 12월에는 특히 상반기가 긍정적으로 끝난 후 시장이 강한 랠리를 보입니다.

현재 투자자들은 경제의 회복력과 연방준비제도의 조치에 대해 낙관적으로 보고 있지만, 이미 경기침체에 빠졌다고 생각하는 투자자들이 많습니다.

곧 발표될 핵심 PCE 보고서는 인플레이션 완화에 대한 추가적인 증거를 제시하여 투자 심리를 연착륙으로 전환할 것으로 예상됩니다.

발표자는 현재 밸류에이션과 최근의 시장 움직임으로 인해 즉각적인 투자에 대한 강력한 사례를 제시하는 데 신중을 기합니다.

이들은 투자자들의 디레버리징을 나타내는 증거금 부채 감소에 주목하며 3~6개월 후 시장의 매력에 대해 더 많은 확신을 표명합니다.

연말까지는 낙관적이지만, 선거일까지의 시장 움직임에 대해서는 불확실하며 그 이후에는 상황이 나아질 것으로 보고 있습니다.

기술의 회복탄력성과 러셀의 고르지 못한 바닥

기술주는 최근 NVIDIA와 테슬라 같은 기업의 실적이 호조를 보이고 있는 반면, 다른 주식은 살아날 조짐을 보이고 있습니다.

러셀 지수는 큰 폭으로 하락한 후 차익실현 매물이 나왔지만 고르지 못한 움직임은 시장 바닥에서 흔히 볼 수 있는 모습입니다.

변동성에도 불구하고 소형주 보유에 대한 강력한 펀더멘털 사례가 있으며, 러셀의 성과는 다년간의 상승 추세로 이어질 것으로 예상됩니다.

중국 경제 성과가 글로벌 시장에 미치는 영향

채권 투자자는 인컴과 자본 상승을 추구하고, 주식은 인플레이션 방어, 자본 가치 상승, 서프라이즈를 추구합니다.

중국의 실적 개선은 중국 경제의 잠재적 턴어라운드 신호로 글로벌 시장에 영향을 미치고 특정 주식, 특히 명품 기업을 끌어올릴 수 있습니다.

현재 중국의 랠리는 트레이딩 랠리인지 아니면 진정한 상승세인지에 대한 논란이 있으며, 이는 시장 역학관계의 변화 가능성을 시사합니다.