글로벌 시장 붕괴: 주식 시장 혼란에 대한 이해

### 새로운 블랙 먼데이: 글로벌 주식 시장 폭락에 대한 이해
* 📉 2024년 8월 6일, **S&P 500 지수와 나스닥 지수는 큰 폭으로 하락**했고, **닛케이 225와 대만 주요 지수 등 글로벌 증시는 더 큰 폭으로 하락**했습니다.
* 🔄 조지 소로스의 반사성 이론에 따르면 시장은 **자산 가격이 실제 가치보다 왜곡되었다가 다시 균형으로 되돌아가는 피드백 루프**로 설명할 수 있습니다.
* 🇯🇵 일본의 저금리로 인해 투자자들이 엔화를 빌려 수익률이 높은 시장, 특히 **미국에 투자하는 캐리 트레이드**가 인기를 끌었습니다.
* 💰 일본은행의 예상치 못한 금리 인상으로 **엔화가 급격히 절상**되어 캐리 트레이드 포지션을 보유한 투자자에게 막대한 손실이 발생했습니다.
* 💼 주식 시장 폭락은 **고액 자산가와 일반 투자자 모두에게 잠재적인 영향을 미칠 수 있는 경제와 주식 시장 간의 단절**을 강조합니다.
* 🤖 이러한 폭락은 **AI와 '매그니피센트 세븐' 기술 기업에 대한 과대광고**와 **AI 도구에 대한 소비자들의 저항**과도 관련이 있습니다.
* 💡 개인 투자자는 상황이 여전히 불확실하므로 **인터넷의 조언에 따라 성급한 결정을 내리지 말고 신중하게 판단**하는 것이 좋습니다.
* 🌐 시장의 급격한 변동은 **글로벌 금융 시스템의 복잡성과 예측 불가능성**을 보여주며, 이는 투자자와 더 넓은 경제에 잠재적인 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

글로벌 주식 시장은 일본의 투자 허점과 시장의 긍정적 피드백 루프의 급격한 반전으로 인해 큰 폭락을 경험했습니다.

On Monday, the 6th of August 2024, the S&P 500 opened down almost 3 and a half% with the NASDAQ down 4%. In other global markets, down by significantly more than that, markets like the Nikkei 225 are down over 12%, and Taiwan's main stock index is having its worst day in history. This followed a weekly trend that has seen trillions of dollars wiped off markets around the world and fingers being pointed at Japan, the Fed, and greedy Wall Street traders, or really whoever else people want to blame when things go wrong. And then just to prove that nobody fully understands what is going on, just one day later, markets across the world rallied almost covering the losses from what people are now calling the New Black Monday. Since you should expect a lot of YouTube thumbnails with red graphs, laser eyes, and so so many flames in your immediate future, now is probably a good time to ask what the is happening to the stock market right now. European and Asian

markets plummeting around the world, and we've been looking at Futures, and they were more than a thousand points down. Traders may want to put on their hard hats. That's because US markets picked up where Japan left off, and the global stock market intensifies. MK index fell 12%. It's the single worst decline since the 1987 crash on Black Monday. London, Washington, andico to best understand the selloff. You should probably know the work of this man, George Soros. Soros is a polarizing figure, but love him or hate him. He is one of the greatest investors and hedge fund managers of all time, and he attributes his success to a theory he pioneered called reflexivity. I will leave a link to his full lectures, books, as well as papers on the mathematical modelling of his theory, but that level of technical detail is not important to understand the current crash. Basically, the theory of reflexivity in the context of capital markets says that markets can

be explained by feedback loops that distort asset prices from what their true fundamental value should be before a spark causes them to revert back to an equilibrium. Pundits of this theory also point out that the positive feedback loops that distort prices into a speculative mania tend to be long and drawn out, whereas the reversal of those feedback loops tends to be very quick, a lot like what markets are experiencing right now. You could make a convincing argument that the stock market has been in a positive feedback loop cycle. Hype around artificial intelligence and its potential applications has catapulted the value of five or six already extremely large companies into the trillions. Most companies have been trading completely flat, but just the Magnificent Seven, as they have been dubbed, have carried the entire stock market because of their enormous size in price performance. That extra investor money has funded intense research and development efforts, accelerating the rate of progress on these tools, which means that almost every new week you are

seeing some new technology that could make you redundant. This feedback loop has been helped up by trillions of dollars worth of liquid capital that has accumulated around the world, leading to stretched valuations from investors who don't want to be left out of the party. This trend has already started to slow down as investors have become weary about how companies will ever be able to justify their current valuations, and consumers have been resistant to AI tools. This time last year, tools like chat GPT and mid-journey were incredibly exciting to consumers, professionals, and college students with an overdue assignment alike. Now, a recent study has revealed that consumers intentionally don't purchase goods or services that feature AI openly. That's putting pressure on the bubble, but the fire still needs a spark. That's why everybody is blaming this global market crash on Japan and a weird little investing loophole that their unusual economy made possible. So, it's time to learn how money works to find out why this is happening now.

and what you should do about it. This week's video is sponsored by Ridge. Ridge started with a simple belief: they can make wallets better. Over 10 years and two successful Kickstarters later, they've sold over 2 million wallets and continue to innovate with their everyday carry items. Ridge wallets are uniquely slim, designed for your front pocket, and can hold up to 12 cards along with cash. They feature RFID-blocking materials to protect your personal information and are made from premium materials like titanium, aluminum, and carbon fiber. With over 50 colors and styles, there's something for everyone. Ridge also offers a key case that can securely hold one to six keys, eliminating noisy key jingles and fitting easily into your pocket. The key case is a game changer for keeping my keys organized and silent. And now Ridge is hosting a massive sweepstakes where you can win a Hennessy Velociraptor, a gold-plated Cybertruck, or $100,000 cash. And the best part? You can enter

for free. Also, every $1 you spend on the Ridge website equals one entry, and you can get four times the entries if you purchase the Cyber wallet or Hennessy Specialty Products using my link. Head over to ridge.com/money or click my link in the description and start your entries today. Japan's economy has been stagnant for more than three decades now, and the Japanese government, along with its Central Bank, has been trying to change that by keeping interest rates extremely low, even going negative. Between January 2016 and January 2024, it was hoped that these low rates would encourage local borrowing, boosting the economy, but when that never happened, the Bank of Japan almost became stuck offering these low interest rates because any increase would further slow down an already sluggish market. It might not have done much for Japan, but investors took advantage of these low interest rates by borrowing money in Japanese Yen and then either investing in Japan or, more often,

exchanging Japanese Yen for another currency like the US and then investing in asset markets here in America. Since stocks only ever go up, investors could make money on the spread between the low Japanese interest rates and the higher returns they could get in the market. According to data from the Bank of International Settlements, the value of these cross-border loans was more than $1.5 trillion. This investing scheme, called a carry trade, was made even better by the fact that the Yen was dropping in value relative to the US dollar. So, investors could make extra money on the foreign exchange exposure if they didn't hedge against it. Like all good things, this worked well until it didn't. Eventually, the value of the Japanese Yen got too low, prompting the bank to acquiesce and raise interest rates to a staggering 0.25%. That's extremely low compared to rates in most markets, but it caused the value of the yen to increase by more than 11.5% in just under a month. Such a

rapid swing in the exchange rate between the first and third most traded currencies in the world have sent shock waves to the financial system as investors in carry trade positions face up to significant losses within the space of a month purely because of Foreign Exchange losses. If you had $100,000 and borrowed $900,000 worth of Japanese Yen last month to take out a 10 to 1 leverage position in American markets, you would have lost all of your money because your debt is now worth more than a million dollars because of the appreciation in the currency you took the loan out in. This is causing many investors to close their positions to cover their loans, which is pushing markets down around the world and the value of the Yen further up. As these markets lose value, other investors have panic-sold their positions, forcing more people to sell, ultimately making the losses on Monday alone greater than the total value of the K trade loans in existence following the theory of fre.

flexibility. This is taking the easy money out of the feedback loop right as the hype around the world's most valuable companies was already going down. Now things are changing so quickly that by the time I publish this video, markets may have fully recovered or we could be in 2008 all over again. But what does this all mean for you? Now is as good a time as any to remind ourselves that the stock market is not the economy and the economy is not the stock market. Today after this new Black Monday, markets around the world rallied and almost fully recovered their losses from the day before. But there is a danger in putting too much hope in this too. People who are paid millions of dollars to manage billions of dollars aren't sure what this one is. So what does this all mean for you? It's important to remember that two of the top 10 best trading days in the history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average occurred in 2008 and another occurred in 1929 in the lead-up to the

global financial crisis and the Great Depression. Respectively, according to data from the St. Louis Fed, the top 1% of individuals now own 34% of all financial assets, an accumulation that has never been higher. Simultaneously, despite fintech advances like commission-free stock trading apps and fractional shares designed to make investing in the markets easier and more accessible to everyone, the share of financial assets owned by the bottom 50% of individuals is now only 2.6%. Now, that's depressing, but it means that this market crash is only going to hurt rich people. Your investments can't tank if you never had any investments in the first place, right? Wrong. According to the Financial Times, several retail brokerages such as Charles Schwab, Vanguard, and Fidelity experienced outages on their platforms, and Robinhood halted trading amidst the selloff as regular people sold their positions on fears that this could be the start of a recession that many people think is overdue. This means that many smaller, less sophisticated investors are

selling off what few investments they have, which will only be made worse as alarming headlines and YouTube thumbnails with laser eyes fight to capture clicks over how bad this situation could get. The second bigger problem is that the anecdote about the stock market not being the economy is only half true. If the stock market is doing very well, there is no guarantee that it will translate into widespread economic well-being for everyone. But if the stock market is doing badly, then companies will be pressured to pull back on expenses like staffing to appease shareholders. Big tech layoffs are already happening, and this can have multiplying effects as these generally high-income earners pull back on their own spending in local businesses. The most important thing you can do individually is not take any advice from people on the internet, no matter if they are a financial professional or former financial professional. Theoretically speaking, it's impossible for anybody to understand your personal financial situation without seeing your personal financial situation.

Panic selling is generally bad advice at a time like this, but for someone with high-interest debt, no emergency savings, and a job that's about to be replaced by AI, it might be a sensible decision to cut out another risk factor. The point is nobody knows, and the worst thing you can do is let people who get paid for clicks convince you to make decisions you otherwise wouldn't have. Now, I am going to be writing an article about the almost comically bad use of AI in the financial sector over on my free email newsletter this week. So, if you're interested in more stories like that, which will never be made into videos here on YouTube, sign up at that link below. And if you want to see the other side of this market panic, go and watch my video on who is going to keep businesses in business if they can replace us all with robots to keep on learning how money works.

WTF Just Happened To The Stock Market?

Subscribe to learn about business, careers, and everything else about How Money Works.

How Money Works

2024년 8월 6일 S&P 500 지수와 NASDAQ 지수는 전 세계적인 증시 하락 추세에 따라 큰 폭으로 하락했고, 닛케이 225 지수와 대만의 주요 주가지수도 큰 폭의 하락세를 보였습니다.

이러한 매도세는 일본의 경제 상황과 월스트리트의 거래 관행 등 다양한 요인에 기인했습니다.

조지 소로스의 반사성 이론은 시장의 불규칙한 행동에 대한 잠재적 설명으로 주목받고 있으며, 긍정적인 피드백 루프가 자산 가격을 주도하고 급격한 반전으로 현재의 폭락을 초래했습니다.

AI와 일본 경제가 글로벌 시장 트렌드에 미치는 영향

새로운 기술과 AI 도구는 피드백 루프를 만들어 밸류에이션 상승과 투자자의 피로를 초래했습니다.

이제 소비자들은 AI가 주도하는 상품과 서비스에 저항하며 시장 거품에 압력을 가하고 있습니다.

일본의 경기 침체와 저금리로 인해 투자자들이 엔화로 차입할 수 있게 되면서 글로벌 시장이 현재 어려움을 겪고 있습니다.

일본 엔화 가치 하락이 글로벌 시장에 미치는 영향

투자자들은 미국 시장에서 낮은 금리와 높은 수익을 얻기 위해 일본 엔화를 미국 달러로 환전하는 캐리 트레이드 전략을 사용해 왔습니다.

엔화 가치가 하락하면 투자자의 수익이 증가하지만, 금리 인상으로 엔화 가치가 급격히 상승하면 캐리 트레이드 포지션에 있던 투자자는 상당한 손실을 입게 됩니다.

이러한 급격한 통화 가치 상승은 도미노 효과로 이어져 투자자들이 포지션을 청산하고 자산을 매도하게 만들었고, 결국 글로벌 증시를 하락시키고 엔화 가치를 더욱 상승시켰습니다.

주요 기업에 대한 과대광고가 줄어들면서 쉬운 돈의 피드백 루프가 변화하고 있습니다.

증시가 큰 폭으로 하락한 후 반등하여 손실을 거의 회복했지만, 최고 재무 관리자들은 미래를 확신하지 못하는 등 불확실성은 여전히 남아 있습니다.

상위 1%가 금융 자산의 34%를 보유한 반면 하위 50%는 2.

6%만 보유하는 등 자산 소유의 부의 격차가 커지고 있어 시장 폭락으로 인해 부유층이 가장 큰 피해를 입을 가능성이 높습니다.

주식 시장이 경제에 미치는 영향

주식 시장의 성과가 항상 경제 전반의 호황으로 이어지는 것은 아니며, 경기 침체는 기업의 정리해고와 지출 감소로 이어질 수 있습니다.

공황 매도는 재정적 어려움에 처한 사람들에게 해결책처럼 보일 수 있지만 온라인 조언에 따라 충동적인 결정을 내리는 것은 피하는 것이 중요합니다.

필자는 금융 부문에서 AI의 비효율적인 사용에 대해 글을 쓸 계획이며, 독자들이 뉴스레터에 가입하여 더 많은 이야기를 접할 수 있도록 독려하고 있습니다.