Please summarize the current stock market situation for us today since you've come back after a long time. The market didn't go as expected. It seems that things didn't unfold as we thought. Especially last night, with NVIDIA plummeting, dragging the overall market capitalization down for three days. Samsung Electronics alone lost a significant portion of its market capitalization. The key players that were leading the market were AI-related stocks, and when they stumbled, our KOSPI couldn't avoid a decline today. However, the flow was better than expected. For instance, SK Hynix plummeted in the early hours but managed to turn positive by the end of the trading session. Samsung Electronics did well, as did export-related stocks. That's why, in my opinion, the current market is...

There are many stories these days about colors changing, and I believe that there might be a more differentiated market situation in the stock market again. If you have been watching, from around May to June, the KOSPI didn't perform well at all. However, around June, with the FMC, I think there has been some change in the market. Therefore, I believe that there might be a cooling-off period in the stock market until summer or even longer. Yes, you mentioned that colors are changing. Could you elaborate on that? How do you understand the change in colors? Well, if you look at the market itself these days, it's a bit ambiguous. Just looking at the past month or two, companies like SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics...

If you leave it there, compared to the stock market, we were able to show overall excellent performance compared to the KOSPI and KOSDAQ. However, it has been changing a bit lately. Recently, food, K-beauty, cosmetics, and food-related stocks have been showing a slightly uncertain trend in their stock prices. On the contrary, these days, it seems that there is a faster development in the sector-to-sector competition in industries such as displays, export companies, automobiles, or shipbuilding companies. Also, on a national level, the Korean stock market seems to be doing better recently compared to the stock markets of the United States and other countries. Therefore, I express that these factors are changing the overall color of the market. Alright, since you are in charge of investment strategy, let's first check the global macro situation. What else has changed in the meantime?

Improving indicators are coming out, is this the reason why? What is the reason behind this sudden situation? From a macro perspective, I don't think much has changed since the June FOMC. There hasn't been anything clearly different. The Fed didn't make any drastic changes in interest rates or in the market. Also, there were statements from Fed members, but these statements didn't deviate significantly from what was confirmed in the June FOMC statement or press conference. Of course, one thing that is a bit concerning now is the exchange rate. The Korean won is strengthening against the dollar, rising back to around 1380 to 1390 won per dollar. However, looking into the reasons behind this exchange rate increase, from Korea's perspective, it's not necessarily a bad thing. This is because as the won/dollar exchange rate goes up, other exchange rates go down, indicating weakness in those currencies.

What we see is not a problem caused by the fundamentals of companies' profits in Korea or other countries, not the United States. Currently, there are interest rate cuts in Switzerland's central bank and Canada's central bank, and a 20% interest rate cut, except for the United States. As most advanced countries' central banks are raising interest rates, the weakening of the currency and the dollar's strength are affecting the dollar index. Therefore, the recent rise in the USD/KRW exchange rate is seen to have an impact in that regard. So, we need to view the current rise in the USD/KRW exchange rate differently from what we experienced in 2022 or 2008. Back then, the high exchange rate had a negative impact on the Korean stock market, but now I believe we can view it positively. This is a slight change at the macro level.

In the stock market, the stock prices of AI companies have now reached their peak. It's considered a bubble now. People are talking a lot about how it resembles the past bubble formation patterns like the Cisco incident. So, these days, you hear a lot of stories like, I did that too, when watching TV or YouTube channels. However, I still believe we are not at that stage yet. The recent rise and fall of NVIDIA's stock price can be seen as a natural counterbalance due to the excessive speculation in the market during that period. Therefore, I think it's too early to conclude that we are experiencing a situation like the Dot-com bubble reversal. That's what I wanted to say. I thought I was buying and getting out. Oh, I'm sorry, NVIDIA shareholders. I entered NVIDIA for short-term trading and got burned.

What are the prospects for GDP growth in the second quarter? It seems like there is a trend of decline, or is there a possibility of a rebound? I feel some uncertainties in the current atmosphere, wondering if it will go down further or come back up. Looking at the second quarter as a whole, and even up to the third and fourth quarters, I am betting on a downward trend in inflation. The PC price index for May will be announced this week. Based on market expectations, which were at 2.8% in April, the market is anticipating around 2.6%. I am also expecting a similar level. Through this PC data, I believe that the stock market can rebound. Frankly, in the past, after the announcement of PC price indexes in April, March, and February, the stock market did not react much.

We did, because two weeks ago, we confirmed the inflation for that month through the CPI in advance, the impact of PC prices was limited, whether positive or negative. However, this time, we can see it slightly differently. On the day the consumer price index (CPI) for May was announced, the FOMC meeting was held. But at that time, when we listened to the remarks of the Fed members and Powell, during the meeting, they said that we had not fully reflected this information in our May and June FOMC decisions. They mentioned that although they received the May CPI data and found it to be a somewhat acceptable figure, they were still somewhat uncertain. However, if the inflation goes down further than the PC in May, and we confirm it again, internally at the Fed, we might think, Oh, we were a bit uncertain about the figures we received in May.

Over the course of about May, it seems that inflation is not being well controlled. There might be discussions about needing to slightly adjust the outlook, and it seems that this discussion will come up around the end of July at the FOMC meeting. They are considering whether this will be reflected in the future path of the Fed's policy. Also, it is seen as difficult for prices to rise further. Currently, it seems that GDP will perform well until the second quarter, but it is expected that the growth rate will continue to weaken in the future. When growth slows down, demand weakens, which acts as a factor in lowering prices. Overall, we struggled a lot with inflation uncertainty from January to March in the first quarter, but now we think it might be okay to lower sensitivity to inflation. However, how will these facts affect the stock market?

I think I need to think a little more before going crazy because, as you mentioned about inflation, anyway, it seems to lead to an economic downturn. Yes, it could have a positive effect on interest rates, or maybe the fact that inflation is decreasing will take effect. Oh, I don't know. You asked a really good question, but this is a topic that is currently being debated by Yeouido managers or more broadly on Wall Street. The question of whether the stock market will rise or fall when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates is almost evenly split. In the past, there have been cases where the stock market plummeted when interest rates were raised, such as in 2008, but there are also cases where the stock market rose sharply when interest rates were cut, such as in 2020. This is commonly referred to as the insurance rate cut. The difference between these two scenarios, the year 1999 and 1995, and the most recent one in 2019, is about interest rates.

Even though interest rates were the same, sometimes the stock market went up, and sometimes it went down. This difference in the past has sparked debates in the market recently. What we need to look at here is the nature of preemptive easing. When preemptive easing is implemented by the central bank, the stock market tends to go up. This is because the central bank aims to minimize any problems that may arise. In contrast, when there are issues after the fact, such as banks failing or a pandemic outbreak leading to global lockdowns, lowering interest rates retroactively doesn't bode well for the stock market. However, personally, I think that this time the stock market, like the past, interprets preemptive rate cuts as insurance rate cuts, so even if interest rates are lowered, the stock market could potentially rise further.

One of the possible questions is this: How can we gauge the nature of the Fed's interest rate hike? We might think that we can somewhat gauge it retrospectively. However, from the perspective of market participants, we should proactively establish some sort of path or defensive line in advance and be prepared in advance. It may be good to respond based on certain indicators and set a benchmark. So, I think those who have Bloomberg terminals may find it more convenient, but without mentioning specific indicators that can be utilized through the Bloomberg terminal, you can simply go to the internet, visit the ISM website, and just look at the Manufacturing New Orders Index. Currently, the New Orders Index was announced at 45.4 points in May, indicating a weak phase.

Yes, but it would be good to focus on whether it drops below 40 points or not. If it falls below 40 points, from that point on, the economy might not experience a soft landing or a no-landing situation but rather a severe recession or a hard landing. There is a high possibility of heading towards that state. In such a scenario, whether the Federal Reserve raises interest rates in July, possibly September, November, or December, the market might interpret it as a sign that there is a significant problem erupting. Looking at it this way, if it moves towards a one-month direction that is not favorable, on the contrary, if it stays above 40 points until the end of this year, and the Federal Reserve decides to raise interest rates, the market might not react positively. It's challenging to predict how the market will respond when interest rates are just starting to be implemented. Both arguments have their points.

If it's logical and reasonable, then it's likely to be convincing. So, if you have 50% of stocks and 50% of cash, should you confirm the direction and make another bet? Well, things like that can be one way. Right now, in any case, what has a significant impact on various sectors is undoubtedly connected to the policies of the presidents. The first TV debate between Biden and Trump will take place on the 27th. Right now, it seems like both sides are evenly matched. There is still a competition going on with almost a 1% point difference. What issues will become contentious after this broadcast? And well, the results, we have to wait and see. It all depends on who debated well. In the end, the most important thing is this time, without aides, without a script, just with paper and a pen.

Since it's about the showdown of intelligence abilities, that's the first thing. There's something strange there. I've only talked about the showdown of the ability to grasp things. The reason is, because both of them are quite old, they understand each other, and depending on the difference in the speed of understanding and reacting, the voters in the market can also reflect that. This is a bit realistic. Secondly, now, it might be related to economic issues. There will be measures related to inflation reduction, and also, the relationships between the U.S. and China. Each candidate's way of dealing with these issues could be a point of contention. So, after this presidential debate, it is expected that someone may turn the tables and take the lead in the polls. When that happens, if Biden wins, will policies like stimulus checks and IRA bills continue to be effective in the market.

Stock prices can go up or down, and when Trump becomes president, it could go the opposite way, towards defense or maybe more towards the semiconductor sector. These sector bets might change. We don't necessarily need to respond right now, but it seems like it would be good to check and respond properly to changes in approval ratings starting in September or October, transitioning into the fall season. More importantly, in July or August, if Biden wins, that's fine. If Biden's approval rating increases, there might be some noise we could encounter in July or August related to the Fed's monetary policy. Recently, there was a survey conducted by Bloomberg among experts, asking what they would do if Trump were elected. Among 100 experts, one said they might cut rates right away.

They say that out of ten people, around 70% of the opinions will demand pressure on the media or the individual's media they have been using, like they did before on Twitter. They will demand interest rate pressure through the media. They interpret that the Fed's independence does not exist and that the Fed will make our White House dependent. Nowadays, some people are showing some agreement with these opinions. So, even if the Fed doesn't intend to do that, the market may think, Hey, wouldn't the Fed do this? This could lead to a change in betting. The focus during this election is whether, just looking at July, Trump will be on top or Biden will be on top. Whether this will affect the market or not could be a critical point. Hey, now we need to pay attention to this until the election of a different country's president.

More than the presidential election, people are more concerned about the U.S. election, right? It's inevitable. Because it's about who will become the leader of the world's most powerful country. But, Ms. Mayuzoo mentioned this. After the debate is over, stocks related to dementia could soar. If you approach it as a theme, it could be possible. Now, the bio industry sector could unfold once. When one side clearly shows the key, there is a possibility that the candidate may change in the middle. There are possibilities for a change. So, it is believed that there is no possibility of changing the presidential candidate. Therefore, even though the presidential candidates have not been confirmed yet, both the Republican and Democratic parties are holding the first debate ever with Trump and Biden as the main candidates.

Now, there is no suitable alternative for the latecomer, so I think they are unfolding the race a little early without a leading runner. This time, Trump's social world was listed. If Trump does well in this debate, wouldn't it skyrocket? Right? It could be seen as related stocks, so think about it. Why did Trump talk a lot about political or diplomatic issues on Twitter or other places before? But from now on, if he doesn't use Twitter and only uses his own platform, people will have to sign up in advance to see it. I remember back in the day when Trump was in power, I used to wake up in the morning and check investing news. At that time, I checked from Trump onwards.

In the morning, what should we, yes, in that way, now we may get more tired. From the stock market's perspective, you can understand it as the scenario of Trump's election. Okay, first of all, NVIDIA dropped by about 16% from its peak, and I don't know what will happen today, but Jensen Huang is planning to sell 6 million shares. Anyway, as these things come together, talks about bubbles and speculation keep coming up. So, currently, the biggest bubble asset is the SMP 500. Stories like this are also emerging. How should we see this? The current situation in the U.S. is like this because the U.S. stock market rose so sharply compared to other countries' stock markets. And in the process of rising, if you calculate the new high and low ratio for the U.S. stock market like SNP 500 and Nasdaq, in short, the new high.

If you look at the number of stocks and the NASDAQ index or the S&P, until last year, when the number of new high-priced stocks increased, the NASDAQ competed with the S&P for new highs. This year, which was unusual because even though the number of new high-priced stocks continued to decrease, the index kept hitting new highs. What does this mean? Only those who are going, go. Only those who are going, go. This clear trend has recently emerged, and what led this trend was now NVIDIA, Micro, or now, on a larger scale, Apple and Microsoft, AI-related stocks, all rising together, which seems to have sparked some controversy about a market bubble. However, I always talk about bubbles, but it's a stage that can be confirmed afterwards, and from the current perspective, it's more about overvaluation. There is a somewhat overvalued aspect, but even so, even if it is overvalued, we have experienced it well, so we should sell because the stock is overvalued.

Stock prices are not dropping right now, so there is some controversy about overvaluation and high valuation. Ultimately, the evaluation within it is related to the valuation performance, and whether these controversies can be mitigated or if they can continue to escalate and become a reality. Therefore, we believe that the evaluation contained within it is related to the performance. So, predicting that NVIDIA's performance will decline, or that Big Tech's performance will decline from now on, I think it's a bit of a stretch. At least after experiencing the Big Tech earnings season at the end of July and the beginning of August, it is not too late for us to make judgments. I would like to say that. About the peak out, in the AI ​​sector, the controversy about whether the growth potential has already been exhausted, we can judge that after that time, right? Still, even after that time, we can evaluate the current atmosphere of NVIDIA, around March or April of this year.

It was an atmosphere. At that time, in February this year, after NVIDIA announced its performance, the operating margin was about 60%. The stock price soared once, but suddenly started to be overvalued in March, causing concerns about a bubble burst. It dropped by about 20% from the peak until April. So, at that time, people were saying NVIDIA was over, that AI, which was a hot topic in the market and on YouTube channels, had lost its leading position. There were many contents discussing what the next leading stock would be. However, in the end, the stock price is rising again now. This is also because NVIDIA has been showing consistent performance, calming down the debates about bubbles and changing leading stocks. In my opinion, at least until the third-quarter performance, including NVIDIA, the AI sector will easily maintain its leading position.

I won't give it to you next week, so in this case, I dropped about 12 to 13% compared to the peak. From now on, for those who couldn't get into NVIDIA because it was expensive, now might be a good time to actively consider buying a bit. I'm thinking that the stage of a sharp drop may not have arrived yet. Today, NVIDIA fell even more than yesterday, almost close to a 7% drop, but it dropped over 6%. Right, it dropped by 6.78. If you didn't sell it yesterday, you might be thinking about it. But I, so today, because SK Hynix fell a lot yesterday, I thought today would be quite tough as well, but today it actually ended with an increase, showing strength. Right, the U.S. stock market was quite severe, but the Korean stock market's severity was not as bad as expected. That's right. In a way, these things can be seen as our market performing well today.

I think that they might not be doing the US long trade. So today, I have this thought that the fact we are showing this kind of appearance ultimately turns into a US long trade. Don't you think so? I also have that aspect in mind because the selling pressure from foreigners is only around 540,000 shares, which is not much. Yes, and foreigners are looking favorably at the supply and demand situation in Korea. Before the vigorous buying earlier, I calculated this for the first time in a while. Since the beginning of the year, we can track the supply of global stock-type funds in our managed units. So, when I tracked only the Asian side, it seems that Taiwan, China, and Korea are the top three giants in the Asian stock market. Among these three, Korea is the one that has received the most money, approximately $17.2 billion.

They came in, then China brought in about 32 billion dollars, and Taiwan brought in almost less than 10 billion dollars. Overwhelmingly, a lot came in. Since the beginning of the year, up to June, 70% of the funds that entered the Asian stock markets have been concentrated in Korea. Foreigners are betting so aggressively; I think they have good reasons for it. I don't believe they are coming in to do charity or for some other purpose. If you invest in the Korean stock market, you can make a profit through momentum and capital gains. As I mentioned at the beginning, you can also make exchange rate gains. The expectation is still there, which is why they continue to pour money into Korea even after June. Therefore, I see the phenomenon of the Korean KOSPI index as a summer rally during the summer season, which is a bit too strong.

It seems like an opinion, so through summer running, to some extent, what is this? Let's rally coolly even if we get criticized later. I think we can go up to 2,900. Yes, I think we can go up to 2,900. Right. Today, foreigners bought nearly 28 trillion won worth of Samsung Electronics at 3,130. So, I don't think they see it negatively regarding semiconductors. Yes, that's correct. So far, there are no signals indicating a slowdown in the growth of the semiconductor and AI industries, so I think foreigners have pulled our stock market today under such judgment. But until recently, we talked a lot about this, like Tesla, which had to split its stock because it couldn't keep going up indefinitely, so after going up to a certain point, it might fluctuate for a while.

Or, on the other hand, just like Tesla, when it becomes fast, when it is pushed by the lead, what will the next lead be? Ultimately, in the big picture of AI, many people have thought that if Apple supports the next step, it will emerge as a new leader. This is because of on-device AI. This is a living idea. When you think about it, in the end, Apple's on-device AI is just an unchanging AI lead. Like I mentioned in between, in the AI ecosystem, let's not stray away this year, at least. Let's not stray away in terms of hardware, software, on-device AI. That's what I want to say. Now, talking about next year, I might have to keep thinking until the end of this year. AI, good numbers, good performance.

Although the growth history is good, I think I can't go for more than two years as a leading stock in the stock market. Maybe by the second half of next year, there might be a change in the leading stocks. I wonder what those leading stocks will be, and it seems like the best time to buy those leading stocks will be in the second quarter of next year before that change. I have been thinking a lot about this recently, but it's still not clear. What are the typical leading stocks at that time? Are they manifested by new industries or companies with certain items, or are there signs starting to appear from now on that will bloom at that time? I think it's more likely the latter, so gradually, things that have been noticed from now on could be potential leading sectors, and there might be a slightly lighter feeling. I've been looking into the autonomous driving sector a bit attentively these days.

I mean, it's not about the current situation, but let's actively consider it from next year. Could it be a big deal next year? Starting from the straw, if we poke it now, it might work. Don't do that, Mr. Pogyo. Sir, please don't. But, a little while ago, as I mentioned, in relation to autonomous driving, if at that time the market could change, but looking at various items at this point, who could be the leading stock if not Tesla or Mobileye? Typically, if you look at the history of the U.S. or Korean stock markets, once a leading stock falls, it takes a cycle of one or two, sometimes more, to find the next leading stock. It seems unlikely to be Tesla; rather, it could be Mobileye.

My child is babbling a lot these days, and in the U.S., so why is that happening? So, the system itself is somewhat different from what Tesla aims for. It feels a bit like a makeshift system. So, I sometimes wonder if we are falling behind in technology or if it's already a technological society. That's not the case, right? Yes, I need to look into that as well. I don't personally see it that way. I understand. So, as we approach July, what would be a good strategy to set up? A stock investment strategy. I have mentioned some things here, so until July and August, I think Korea will be fine. Therefore, it seems like the KOSPI will settle above 2,800 in July, and even in August, after the earnings season passes, it might be worth considering around 2009. That's how I see it. Of course, right now.

Now, if it goes from the late 2700s to 2900, it may not increase by 10%, but in terms of individual stocks, I think that stocks that can benefit from both the existing exchange rate effect, such as semiconductors, automobiles, or food, can continue to rise based on data. When you calculate which sectors will have the best profit outlook for this year and next year, the export industry in our country seems to be the most promising. So, although it may sound obvious when talking about the export industry, the obvious thing here is not to significantly reduce the weight within the portfolio. Understand? Okay. Although you see it positively, are there any variables that we need to be cautious about? What could be some factors that we need to think about? We need to consider whether there could be any impact on today's stock price, such as NVIDIA. This affects the stock price, right? So, what I am trying to say is...

The market fell by about 12% compared to the peak, but if it drops by over 20%, there might be more concerns arising. In the market, such concerns are likely to increase. As I mentioned briefly earlier, after the presidential election, if the outlook spreads that Trump might actually defeat Biden, uncertainties will revolve around the Fed's monetary policy. Even if noise surrounds it, it seems worthwhile to try looking at it. In July, the sensitivity of issues within the performance fundamental market is higher than macro or political events. We have already checked the export data for April, May, and June, as well as the exchange rate effects and Nvidia's second-quarter performance I mentioned earlier. Even though it may be difficult to expect explosive growth like in the first quarter, the profit margin, based on this year's operating profit margin, is significant.

I'm thinking that as the issue that was in the mid-260 billion won range is resolved, we might level up once. Okay, got it. [Music] Yes, you have listened to many lectures from various places, and I think you have checked and applied many techniques as well. However, are the results good? This will be the unique strength of our class. Why do we need to analyze sectors, and when it comes to which sectors have gone where, there are many ways to approach this initially, which makes us think a lot. I will tell you the key points accordingly. President Kim analyzes commercial aspects like this and finds stocks, various techniques, and the effects so that you can aim for each effect in detail. By studying together up to the stocks of interest, you will be able to lead the market sufficiently.

I will do that [music]. Yes, I will make full use of the live. The questions that come out from there, and also when you buy and sell, there may be times when it is ambiguous, I will include the parts I experienced, and when inquiries come in, I will provide sufficient guidance. This will be the unique strength of our class [music].

7월 증시 전략, 코스피 2900 돌파한다. "다음 주도주는 무엇이 될까?" / 증시 하락을 시킬 변수는 "이 것"  | 한지영 투자전략 애널리스트

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