반도체 부문: 시장 동향 및 향후 전망

### 주식 시장 분석 및 전망 반도체 업종, 삼성전자 및 시장 동향
* 📉 바이텍디비텍은 전 세션에서 큰 폭의 하락을 경험했고, 현재 반도체 업황도 좋지 않습니다. **중국의 막대한 투자로 인해 반도체 가격은 8만원에서 4만원까지 급락**했습니다.
* 🕯 시장의 기술적 측면, 특히 **주요 레벨에서 대량 매도 및 캔들 패턴**을 관찰하는 것이 중요합니다.
* 🚗 DB-Tex가 **테슬라의 반도체 생산 하청**을 맡고 있다는 소문이 있는데, 사실로 확인될 경우 긍정적인 흐름이 지속될 수 있습니다.
* 🌐 코스피와 코스닥 시장의 신용융자 잔액이 모두 **200조원을 돌파**했으며, **코스피 신용융자 잔액은 52주 최고치**를 기록했습니다.
* 🔋 LG전자는 최근 폭염으로 인해 다시 탄력을 받을 것으로 예상되어 **기상 조건과 관련된 주식에 수혜**를 줄 수 있습니다.
* 📈 SK하이닉스는 역사적으로 실적이 바닥을 친 후 **최소 4개 분기 연속 주가가 상승**하는 모습을 보였습니다.
* 📅 예정된 주요 이벤트로는 **6월 27일 마이크론의 실적 발표**와 **7월 초 삼성전자의 실적 발표**가 있으며, 이는 3분기의 분위기를 결정지을 수 있는 중요한 행사입니다.
* 💰 급등한 종목에 대한 차익실현과 **화장품 및 식품 업종과 같은 업종 순환매**는 단기 변동성을 유발할 수 있습니다.
* 🛠 제한된 기술과 같은 대형주의 경우 일반적으로 보유하는 것이 안전하며, **단기 이동평균을 관찰**하여 잠재적인 지지선과 저항선을 확인하는 것이 중요합니다.

최근 시장 움직임은 중국의 반도체 투자에 영향을 받아 비텍디비테크가 크게 하락한 것으로 나타났습니다.

Then, one of the distinctive features of yesterday's movement was that Vitek DB Tech was significantly down. If we talk about the current situation here, it's not good. Not only are things not good in this area, but also China has been pouring a lot of money into the semiconductor sector, causing the price to drop drastically from 80,000 won to 40,000 won. Last year, in the first half of the year, in April, it was at 80,000 won, and until recently, it was at 40,000 won, so it has dropped by about 50% from its peak. Recently, it seems to be stabilizing a bit after the decline, but technically, as I always emphasize, when a large volume of selling appears at the bottom and a candlestick pattern emerges, it is crucial to see if it can recover from that point. I have always mentioned this. On Monday of this week, the candlestick pattern was.

I immediately recovered, and since then, if you look at the trading volume now, you can see candles that are quite large, appearing one by one recently. For three consecutive days, there have been period purchases. Yesterday, both periods and foreigners were buying. Probably, news like this may have started to influence the market a bit earlier, knowingly or unknowingly. It seems like DB-Tex is subcontracting Tesla's semiconductor production. Anyway, DB-Tex is a foundry. A foundry is a company that, when someone brings the design drawings, produces them on their behalf. DB-Tex is pushing for the subcontract production of Tesla's semiconductors, but this push is not over yet, the results are not out yet. They are conducting an investigation.

As a standalone news, it came out after the market closed yesterday. Well, how much can we trust it? Several newspapers are also quoting and reporting on the follow-up after that. If this turns out to be true, as I mentioned a little while ago, there are technical points like breaking through the resistance and not coming down again, becoming such trends. It is likely to be sustained for the time being. So, if that's correct, but if it's nothing special and just ends as a rumor, then we may see the pattern of going down again. Therefore, by looking at these technical points, even though we are not insiders of the company, Tesla, conducting due diligence, it seems that we don't know Tesla's insider information. So, you should check while considering these technical points. So, in yesterday's session, there was DB Holding Company, DB Hi-Tech.

Yesterday, the rain was like a circuit breaker, and DB HiTek showed a 6% strength due to the summer showing up, so you might want to check just a bit for any expectations of movement today. Also, there is something to know now. Yesterday, the credit balance of the two KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets finally exceeded 200 trillion won. Especially, if you find a stock, it would be great. That's right, the black one is the credit balance of KOSPI, breaking the previous high, so it's hitting a 52-week high. In fact, it's a really good stock, but it's a credit bubble. So, the current index is fine, but if the U.S. corrects, we can withstand it because we didn't rise. However, if the U.S. corrects due to fatigue, how would the parts that received credit be affected in the market? When the credit balance of KOSDAQ is at a slightly low point.

It's increasing, so we know that the credit spreads have exceeded 20 trillion won. So, we are aware of the level. If we look at why there has been some volatility in the recent cosmetics and food sectors reaching high levels, it seems that the leading sectors recently, when I looked at the credit spreads, are rising like this. The credit spread of the cosmetics sector sharply rose from mid-April and the food sector has been rising since early May. Consequently, for those who are a bit late in organizing these leading sectors, if there is a slight shake at the peak, for those who bought not with money but with leverage, it becomes a bit ambiguous. They might cut it once and quickly throw it away. There are such aspects. Therefore, in the cosmetics and food and beverage sectors, credit spreads have been rising recently.

You should be aware that the parts that have risen can create some volatility to a certain extent due to sector rotation. Nevertheless, amidst that, there seems to be a growing interest in weather-related matters these days. In terms of graphs, in the past year, it is said that it has been the hottest year since 1940. For example, we are currently recording temperatures of 35 degrees Celsius. Seoul is also experiencing temperatures of 35 to 36 degrees Celsius. It is quite hot and can be a bit irritating. Therefore, recently, due to the heat, LG Electronics, which once raised its market value with its air conditioning system, seems to be in a position where it could gain momentum again. Last night, or was it the night before, I showed an article saying that if the parts related to the outdoor unit come out, the stock price is dropping again. So, LG Electronics seems to be in a position where it could gain momentum once again.

The rapid movements yesterday were quite distinctive. I took a look at Bloomberg's content, and the U.S. is now raising rates again. It seems that due to the heatwave, power companies are declaring an emergency situation. Taiwan also seems to be facing a similar situation. Yes, and in India too, due to the weather, power emergencies are being declared in various parts of the world. I think there will be many articles this summer about these issues. Last year, the same happened in the U.S., and we seem to be a bit slow as well. Stories like these are emerging a lot, so I think summer-related themes will continue for a while. You should take a look at the fact that next, yesterday, Samsung Electronics, after a long time, exceeded 80,000, but unfortunately, it fell back a bit. Also, SK Hynix closed with an uptail yesterday, indicating a reversal.

It's a bit disappointing, but still, since Hynix has risen almost 60% since the beginning of the year, it's okay to take it easy. In fact, that's right. Instead, it would be great if Samsung Electronics picked up the pace while we take a break. So, nowadays, some people seem to be thinking about selling off stocks that have been rising. If I briefly update on that topic, looking at the quarterly operating profit of SK Hynix for the past 10 years, which is represented by the vertical bar graph, and the PBR represented by the red line graph, when I plotted it for more than 10 years, the trend shows that when the performance hits rock bottom, the stock price tends to rise for at least four consecutive quarters. When we look back at the cycles that occurred in the past, when the performance hit the bottom last year, and now, we can see that it has been four quarters.

Pictures showing PBR rising consecutively are appearing, so there might be some parts that can be further extended. However, looking at past cases, it could be considered that it may last about 1 year and 6 months, with as short as four quarters and as long as six quarters. Samsung Electronics is the same. After hitting the bottom in performance, the stock price rose for about four to six quarters. But this time, after hitting the bottom, Samsung Electronics is showing some improvement for four consecutive quarters. When looking at the valuation, it is still not as burdensome compared to Hynix. This is because HBM has not been passed yet, so there is still some aspect like that. Lastly, if you take a look at the timeline, I think there might be more continuation in movement. Of course, because it has risen in the short term, there is a possibility of changes in supply and demand.

If you take a little break, a bit of rest in between can be expected. What events are waiting for us? In the last week of June, next week, Micron's earnings announcement will be in Korea on the 27th. Also, in early July, Samsung Electronics will announce their earnings. At the end of July, there will be calls for Samsung and Hynix. I expect there will be discussions about how much the legacy semiconductor business is declining. If these discussions come up, I believe that focusing on the legacy will create expectations for improved performance in the second half of the year, creating a favorable timeline for the third quarter overall. So, there is still some anticipation, especially for Samsung Electronics. Therefore, if Samsung Electronics stabilizes, a positive trend will continue in July and August, leading to developments in the third quarter.

Let's wait a moment and summarize. It seems like it would be good to go a bit longer this time. Oh, it would be nice if it went well. Yes, it would be nice. Shareholders will be excited. Compared to Hynix, yes. However, the process of filling that gap may take about a quarter, so when the index flows towards the upper range, there may be cases of profit-taking and program trading automatically coming in, causing the stock price to rise. Next, there are also events related to the secondary battery sector, such as inter-battery. Therefore, yesterday, EcoPro BM showed signs of a rebound, and Energy [music] Solutions seemed to show some upward movements as well. First of all, some stocks may encounter technical resistance, and then the timing to determine the direction will probably be around August 8th, or before that, with the Kia sales of the E-series.

It seems that decisions can be made based on demand for events. Then, the 46 series is crucial for processing. In the case of Kia EV series, LG Energy Solution, POSCO Future M, and then Daewoo Electronics materials are responsible. If the events like Coupang go well, there might be some rebound according to that. If Daewoo Electronics materials take action here, the stock price direction seems to be determined upwards and flow in that direction. It's not like completely ignoring the material sector, but we still need to assess the situation a bit. It can be said that the stock price has come out to some extent at the bottom. However, the second quarter earnings season is coming. At that time, stocks can react to earnings. So, we are preparing for the second quarter earnings season, focusing on IT first, looking into areas like IT law, semiconductors, and then related to hybrid bonding.

The spotlight continues in the market. The trends we mentioned at that time, such as Park Systems and HPSP, started to rise yesterday. As for EO Technics, as mentioned, there are some market rumors, but the possibility seems quite low. Therefore, the stock price should rebound today. We will see how the rebound goes today. Next, regarding the possibility of SK Innovation's merger, it was first reported, and then as the process progresses, the listing of SK is being considered, but it was mentioned that there is no confirmed decision regarding dealing with Innovation. Today, the stock price may start strong, so we will open it that way. When the cafe report was covered, it was estimated to be around 13 trillion won. First, in terms of business...

The estimated performance is progressing in the direction we anticipated, not exceeding the 200 billion we saw. I expect a gap-up start. I will also keep an eye on the market capitalization of 1 trillion. I hope for good results in the stock as we have worked hard. The POSCO internship is not over yet. This is not the end. This is a trend. Now, short-term trends are introduced. The trend is an upward flow, but it may become a bit heavy. If the POSCO internship progresses clearly in terms of advertising, there may be some response. However, it's not a complete give-up. I would like to emphasize that. With this connection, the platform sector is gaining attention, and even companies like Sup are showing some upward movement. Although Sup trading is a bit sluggish, I will raise the short-term resistance level for now. Let's look at the nuclear power plant sector.

I think there are quite a few people who own it. Shall we take a look at a situation like a limited technology? In the case of limited technology, even at today's low price basis, even if you try to buy at a low price, you may think a little more and look down. If we say looking down, it's in the late 68,000 won range. Because there are materials that support the main line of support and resistance, even if it breaks, it can recover quickly. So, when the price is low today, in this situation, I would like to point out that it is okay to hold onto limited technology among large-cap stocks. As for the shipbuilding industry, today's overseas reports have focused more on Hyundai Group. Also, I think we are looking a bit towards the lower form side rather than selling off in the case of Hanwha Systems. Probably, in comparison to profits, it seems like they have focused more on market capitalization and intensity of orders. In my opinion, yes, that's right. There seems to be a concentration of supply at the moment.

So, I think it's right to take it with me, but because this is a stock with a supply concentration, in terms of supply, strong supply comes out. If trading volume exceeds, let's say, 5 million shares and there is a backlog, at that time, it is necessary to sell a bit, like a large company that does that. For example, such a response is needed. Shall we look at Samsung Heavy Industries together? Samsung Heavy Industries had an issue at that time, not a major one, but currently, we are positioned below the key support and resistance line. That part was pushed back due to an event, so in the market, rather than immediately pulling it up, a trend of waiting a bit is being staged to wait for the price trend. However, a trend to align is expected to emerge, so you don't need to have big concerns. I can say that. Let's move on a bit from this innovation, from this situation, this pattern.

If you remember this well, it will be helpful. Usually, people analyze the strength by rising and pushing out the gap or by dividing it into minutes. First of all, they create a trend. In the case of today, how the mid-term trend appears is meaningful in trading, especially among large-cap stocks. We can confirm that today's demand is a bit concentrated. In the case of Kia, there are no special issues, just that if you look at today, if the stock price has risen a bit in a certain industry, it might move away from there and go into another direction. Kia is worth waiting for the E series announcement. Since there is nothing wrong with sales, when a technical form of reversal appears at the top of the band, such adjustments can occur. It's a natural correction. When looking at the chart, let's zoom in.

I think we should consider the trend part. Whether the support line is breaking or not breaking, if it breaks, it means there is a variable at first, or in terms of supply and demand, when sellers start to sell a bit and leave, but there is no such form at all yet. Next, looking at the important lines on a weekly basis, the part related to continuing the upward trend is being strengthened like this. I think there are people holding Rega Bio, as they are soon hosting a conference. It seems like there will be an opportunity to sell enough through the stocks. Therefore, for those who hold it, they may consider opening up the possibility of adjusting their positions a bit in line with the timing. In the case of Alteogen, there has been a slight decrease in supply recently. It's just a natural adjustment, and such a situation is appearing, and since there is no large volume trading by traders themselves.

Just such adjustments can naturally lead to band counseling rights. However, what we need to consider is not whether this falls or rises based on Japanese standards, but rather, it is more important to determine whether it is supported by some kind of support and rises. This is because the candle of the stock price is located below the short-term moving average, and a rise involving trading for more than the recent 5 trading days or 10 trading days is likely to encounter resistance until it stabilizes. Therefore, at the moment, decisions like additional purchases are more of a wait-and-see approach. The situation may change in the market, but for now, it is primarily a wait-and-see approach.

반토막 난 DB하이텍, 테슬라 이슈 업고 주가 회복할까? / 2차전지, 그리고 합병 이슈 나온 SK이노베이션의 대응은? | 민재기, 이성웅

안녕하세요! 
돈 이 되는 경제이야기, 고수들의 투자 노하우를 배우는 경제 채널 입니다.

* 비즈니스 및 광고 문의 : ad@815.co.kr
* 출연 및 섭외 문의 : thinkeasyman@naver.com


815머니톡

중국의 투자가 반도체 부문에 미치는 영향

비텍디비텍은 중국의 반도체 부문 대규모 투자로 인해 주가가 50% 급락하면서 회사 회생에 대한 우려가 제기되고 있습니다.

디비텍이 테슬라의 반도체 생산에 하청을 줄 가능성이 있다는 소식에 시장이 영향을 받고 있으며, 이번 조사 결과에 따라 향후 주가 흐름에 영향을 미칠 것으로 보입니다.

코스피와 코스닥 시장의 신용융자 잔액이 200조원을 넘어서면서 미국 시장이 조정을 받을 경우 신용 버블이 발생할 수 있다는 신호가 나오고 있습니다.

신용 스프레드 상승과 여름 트렌드

4월 중순과 5월 초부터 화장품 및 식품 섹터의 신용 스프레드가 급격히 상승하면서 레버리지를 사용하는 투자자에게 잠재적인 변동성을 야기하고 있습니다.

기록적인 기온을 기록한 여름 폭염으로 인해 에어컨 시스템에 대한 수요가 증가하면서 LG전자와 같은 기업들에게도 잠재적인 수혜가 돌아가고 있습니다.

기상이변으로 글로벌 전력회사들이 비상사태를 선포하고 있는 가운데 삼성전자와 SK하이닉스의 주가가 눈에 띄는 등락을 보이고 있습니다.

하이닉스와 삼성전자의 잠재적 주가 동향

SK하이닉스는 실적 바닥을 찍은 후 4~6분기 연속 주가가 상승하는 과거 추세를 보였으며, 과거 사이클을 고려할 때 추가 상승 가능성이 있습니다.

삼성전자 역시 실적 바닥 이후 4분기 연속 개선세를 보이고 있으며, 하이닉스에 비해 밸류에이션 부담이 덜한 편입니다.

마이크론, 삼성전자, 하이닉스의 실적 발표와 기존 반도체 사업에 대한 논의가 예정되어 있어 3분기에는 특히 삼성전자에 우호적인 환경이 조성될 것으로 예상됩니다.

주식 시장에서는 차익 실현과 프로그램 매매가 예상되어 주가 상승으로 이어질 수 있습니다.

인터배터리와 같은 2차 전지 업종 관련 이벤트가 에코프로비엠, 에너지솔루션 등의 종목 움직임에 영향을 미치고 있습니다.

곧 출시될 기아차의 E시리즈와 46시리즈의 판매 여부는 LG에너지솔루션, 포스코퓨처엠, 대우전자 등의 실적과 함께 주가 방향을 결정할 중요한 요소입니다.

다양한 분야의 예상 진행 상황 및 동향

실적은 2000억을 넘지 않으며 순항 중이며, 갭업 시작에 대한 기대감이 커지고 있습니다.

시가총액 1조에 대한 관심이 집중되고 있으며, 포스코 인턴십은 여전히 진행 중입니다.

단기적으로는 플랫폼 섹터와 에스피와 같은 기업에 주목하며 상승 흐름을 보이고 있으며, 원전 섹터의 경우 기술력이 제한적인 만큼 대형주 위주의 대응이 유효할 것으로 보인다.

조선업종에서는 현재 공급이 집중된 현대중공업과 한화시스템에 주목할 필요가 있습니다.

삼성중공업은 현재 주요 지지선과 저항선 아래에 위치하여 가격 추이를 지켜본 후 조정이 예상되는 추세입니다.

주식 동향 및 잠재적 조정 분석

트레이더들은 현재 특히 기아차와 같은 대형주에 대한 중기 추세와 수요 집중도를 분석하는 데 집중하고 있습니다.

기아의 E 시리즈 발표와 레가 바이오의 컨퍼런스 개최가 예정되어 있어 주식 보유와 잠재적 매도 기회에 영향을 미치고 있습니다.

알테오젠은 공급이 약간 감소하여 자연스러운 조정이 예상되지만 잠재적인 주가 상승에 대한 강력한 지지력이 있는지 평가하는 것이 중요합니다.

현재로서는 시장 상황이 변할 수 있으므로 추가 매수에 대해서는 관망하는 자세를 취하는 것이 좋습니다.