It has already happened. Regarding that, adjustments or price declines are coming in, but rather than panicking about further drops, we should just continue on our path. Just a week ago, there was talk about the U.S. GDP being 2.8%, and the market was discussing a Goldilocks scenario, but now suddenly there’s talk of a recession. The ISM manufacturing index has been declining for three months now, but now that it has turned down, they are linking it to the recession talk. It seems like the market is always reacting to what it has seen. So, at this point, we need to consider that. The market is not doing well, and as it declines, there are various negative narratives that people are holding onto psychologically.

Changing negatively and having the worst strategy towards the market is not good. It means that I am just getting caught up in the market. So, will I follow that? Oh, everything breaks down, and this is really serious. Of course, it comes out seriously. One of the things that comes out is that when macro indicators are released, in a market where macro indicators change significantly, honestly, everything just collapses. I think that is the biggest key point. Then, similarly, as macro indicators start to move in one direction, there is a point where it stabilizes for a while. If it seems to have gone too far in one direction, it will definitely correct itself. However, during that process, if you look at it now, over the weekend, it seems that our Paris monitor content is in big trouble. It appears that content discussing the potential for further adjustments is the most popular.

It seems that the anxiety of those people is expressed through the thoughts of unintended experts at the moment. It appears that there are cases where this is viewed that way. Since they are anxious, it seems that this is repeatedly expressed. I think that is correct. However, I don't know. Over the weekend, there were rumors that the beginning of a crash was happening, and some people were saying things just to increase their view counts. But I don't know. Of course, the market has dropped now, but I haven't sold a single share yet. So, I haven't sold any shares, and today, I actually moved 10% of the cash I had into my brokerage account to use it. In the morning, I thought, Indeed, the big players are different. If you slightly widen your perspective, and depending on the stock, are you considering buying LG Chem?

No, oh, my head hurts. But what I want to say right now is that we need to have something like the CEO. When you look at this market, if you have a large proportion of stocks, then you should reduce it and reassess, or if it has dropped significantly in the short term, you should look for opportunities. You need to have a strategy, but instead, because of anxiety, you go to YouTube, and then you come to our YouTube, and you think, Oh, this doesn't sound right. What should I do? You can't find a standard, so you can't find your center. That's the worst part. So, instead of going back and forth like that, it's better to look at the current state of your account and consider how to respond to the situation. Let's take a look at a few things. Personally, I think this drop is just a change after a significant rise.

The biggest issue is that this is the first point. Why are we discussing the recession here? I believe the recession hasn't even started yet. However, ultimately, as time goes on, we need to interpret the changes in the context of interest rates and cycles, particularly focusing on the U.S. This is the most important aspect; we need to understand that the overheating centered around the U.S. is changing. 

The second point, which I think is more significant than anything else, is that all macro indicators are starting to stabilize. If the yen had stabilized, we wouldn't be seeing these issues. But now, look at the situation; it has started to decline. This means that the Bank of Japan, which we had been observing comfortably, is now completely changing its stance and even discussing the possibility of additional interest rate hikes.

Even if we raise it by 0.25 inches now, don't expect that this will stop the interest rate hikes. This kind of nuance is starting to emerge, and with the release of the BOJ minutes today, there will likely be ripples in the market. However, the important thing is that we have come this far, and if you look at the current trend, it’s here. So, in March of this year and in February, there was a rapid decline. I think we have slightly entered a point where we can hit the brakes. But of course, there is a possibility that after a slight rebound, we could hit the brakes again and drop back down to the low 140s. However, because of the rapid decline, the brakes may not function as expected.

If it goes beyond a certain level, there could be additional deviations. This is what we are currently observing in the market. When this happens, the market may be surprised, leading to selling pressure and further fluctuations. I believe there is a possibility of this occurring. However, if we consider the trends from last year and this year, around 142 could cover the current levels to some extent, and I think the trends in Japan are somewhat stable. Therefore, there is a possibility of additional shocks. It is important to consider whether it will stop at this level or continue further, as this could change the market dynamics. The key question is how I should respond in such a situation. I hope you can keep these points in mind while observing today's market movements. Additionally, I would like to mention one more thing.

I was preparing the data and found that there are about 10,000 entries. When interest rates began to rise in 2009, specifically in 2007, if we look at the period from 2007 to 2019, we can see that before the rate cuts, the market indices typically dropped about 7 to 10% from their peak for about three to six months. After that, they stabilize, and what happens is that when they start to recover, they go through a correction and then return to the previous high levels. This is when you should sell your stocks. This moment is very important. 

Looking at the current situation, it seems that such moments are crucial. Initially, when the market starts to react, it may seem uncertain, but once the market stabilizes, it will eventually recover. At that point, it’s wise to tidy up your positions and keep them tight, then observe the market. The important thing is that when this process begins, the macroeconomic environment changes. This is the most critical aspect.

The macro indicators are changing. So how are the macro indicators changing? This means that as we move towards interest rate cuts, the market will reflect concerns about the economy. However, when the interest rates were announced, the U.S. dollar generally weakened. The dollar is weakening, and this is the change we are currently seeing. As this happens, interest rates also begin to decline. What does this mean? The dollar is weak. We have been saying that the dollar has been surprisingly strong. When the dollar is strong, it is indeed correct that the U.S. market is strong. In fact, during times of export booms, a weaker dollar is a very favorable environment for emerging markets. Bingo! The Korean stock market is on the rise. Why do you keep trying to bring me down? I’m just expressing my feelings.

So, if the dollar starts to weaken structurally, and in my view, it drops below 102.5, moving towards the 100 range, I think the Korean market will sell off more. I believe that emerging markets will also sell off more. When the dollar weakens, looking back at past situations during periods of a weak dollar, if that starts to happen, Korea could face more challenges. Even if a lot of trading is done in the U.S. market, I think it's right to look at both markets. However, once the weight starts to shift, it might be better to focus more on this side. Changes could occur on one side, so it's important to keep checking the macro trends and consider how to adjust my strategy accordingly. I think it's worth looking into that. Additionally, today, Korea...

Starting off, there is immediate credit pressure, right? I think it might get a bit stronger today and possibly until tomorrow. The credit volume, especially today, has a high chance of creating a gap. During the trading session, around 9 or 10 o'clock, there might be some confusion due to the credit balance being settled, along with CFD liquidations. So, those who traded aggressively this time probably faced significant losses. Those who used leverage, oh, that’s the most critical point. However, to put it slightly differently, those who didn’t participate before are now starting to engage. Oh, don’t say that! Ah, yes, yes, yes. Why, yes, yes! Let’s be careful with fire. I’ve been saying for a long time that we should be cautious with fire. If we want to be careful, we shouldn’t play with fire. But the fire of love is necessary, right? Oh dear, it’s a hammer, isn’t it?

지금 항상 그랬거든요. 그런 매물 압박이 나오면서 청산될 때쯤에는 장중에 험하게 나와도, 거기가 거의 일차적으로 저점을 만드는 경우가 많았습니다. 그렇기 때문에 그런 것을 감안하시고, 너무 장중에 시장 변화가 나왔다고 해서 아, 내가 이걸 가지고 거기 또 쏠려 가면서 막 그렇게 될 것 같다라고 생각하지 마세요. 내가 어느 정도 포지션을 맞춰 놓고 난 여기서 버티겠다라고 생각하시면 보지 마세요. 지금 모르겠어요. 시장이 앞으로 어떻게 될지는 모르겠는데, 오늘 또 이런 파란 미국에 대한 이야기 때문에 우리 가족분들이 막 공포에 질려서 공포에 또 투매를 시초에 던질까 봐 그게 좀 걱정이 되긴 해요. 그래서 모르겠습니다. 그냥 지금 분위기 쪽에서는 개인적으로 그래요. 저는 올조정이 왔다.

I am one of those who think calmly and are making efforts. What I believe is, as I mentioned earlier, if things get somewhat organized now, then when the next change comes, what will happen? This is currently my biggest concern. 

First, as I mentioned earlier, the macro environment is changing, so I think there will be various changes in global assets as well. Second, what I am prioritizing right now is that we have just gone through a wave. The key question is, what will be the next leading stock? After that, I think we need to check what the leading market will do next. Therefore, I have been paying a lot of attention to the leading stocks. However, it is natural that those that have fallen significantly will rebound.

Of course, in high school, it would definitely be semiconductors. However, at that time, I hope you prepared for the increased volatility through the use of this. As it rises, you have been gradually reducing your positions, right? You have indeed reduced them. But now, if interest rates are lowered, we need to consider which sectors will benefit from that, and how those sectors can start to create synergies together. I think these will be the leading stocks. I've been thinking a lot about what those might be, and for now, it seems to be in the biotech sector. Yes, it makes sense to keep an eye on healthcare. However, if biotech is the leader, it becomes quite challenging because I don't know which stocks to focus on. But the large-cap biotech stocks are the ones that the market has recognized, and those who are not familiar with the sector often say that biotech is good.

So, you keep trying to find stocks among small and mid-cap companies, but I think you really need to focus on large-cap stocks that fit within the top five fingers. That's what I've been hearing. Or, as I mentioned, I suggested two ETFs, right? Yes, the biotech ETF. Yes, I think something like the Coex Timefolio would be a better option, and I hope you take a look at that. 

Secondly, it's important to note that even during interest rate cuts, companies that continue to show strong performance will be crucial. If we look at the performance trends for the first half of the year and the second half, we can see that the sectors that performed well in the first half will likely not change much in the second half, and overall performance expansion is not expected. Given that, sectors like shipbuilding, cosmetics, and defense will likely continue to dominate. If there are any changes due to interest rate cuts, it might be in software.

Changes are expected, especially in the gaming sector. The gaming industry is already showing good performance, and companies like Nexon Games are asking for attention. If we can identify leading stocks in this area, it could lead to a broader expansion. I'm considering the possibility that if the market aligns with my thoughts, then we should continue trading in leading stocks from that point onward. I believe it's essential to look for these opportunities during this adjustment period. 

Now, let's take a moment to review this week's schedule. If we check the upcoming events, we see that the ISM Manufacturing Index has started to show negative trends for about three months now, falling below 50 in the U.S. However, this has been interpreted negatively.

So, I don't think we should talk about a recession. However, since the market is currently quite sharp, the business index for the service sector is being announced today. I think we might find some clues there, but I'm not sure. I believe it has slightly contracted to around 51. If we take comfort in that, we can find some solace, but we also need to consider that China's Caixin services and PMI will be released during the day, so we should check those as well. As I mentioned, the Bank of Japan's minutes will be released, and today Vice President Harris has almost been recognized as the Democratic candidate. It seems she is now the nominee. So, the running mate will be announced, and it will obviously come from the six candidates. Who it will be, well, we’ll just have to wait and see.

Now that everything is set up, I think we need to take a serious look at the movements in the U.S. presidential election. Additionally, there are earnings reports coming out today, particularly in the gaming sector, with SoftBank expected to announce something. There has also been a lot of talk recently about Palantir, so that’s something to keep an eye on as well. On Tuesday, the 6th, there won't be any major changes, but we should check the trade balance. There’s also the 2024 Flash Memory Summit, which is said to be the largest event in the semiconductor sector. There will be a lot of discussions about SSDs and enterprise storage, and sessions on CXL are expected to generate significant interest. It would be good to see if companies like Neosem and XM are making any changes. The EIA's short-term energy outlook report is also coming out, and it will likely reiterate the expected energy shortages for next year.

Today, the maximum power usage is expected to peak during lunch. There are concerns about potential shutdowns and other issues arising from this situation. It's worrying, but what can we do? This is also the highest usage on record, which will likely lead to renewed focus and discussions about power management. It seems important to keep an eye on this situation. 

Additionally, with the rise of AI, we have been somewhat delayed, but interest remains strong. A new listing is coming tomorrow: iBeam Technology, which is developing a biometric microscope. This could be relevant to the bio sector and bio equipment, so it’s something to watch. 

On another note, Amorepacific and LNF are also announcing their earnings, and the travel industry is still not performing well.

I'm not sure, but I think we need to look at whether Dev Sisters will reflect decent performance in their upcoming game. Also, in the U.S., SMCI has been a stock of recent interest, so we should keep an eye on that as well. Additionally, it would be good to check on Caterpillar and Amgen, especially to see how things are developing with Caterpillar. 

On Wednesday, the consumer credit index will be released, but it's not a particularly important indicator. However, we will see the earnings report from Hive, and the earnings from Kakao's affiliates are also coming out, although expectations aren't very high. Moreover, Shinsegae and Lotte Shopping, which are retail stocks, will be announcing their earnings, but we have low expectations for retail stocks. However, if we look at the trends in retail, we can see that sales have been declining throughout July.

I raise my head. Large supermarkets, not convenience stores, but large supermarkets and department stores seem to be lifting their heads. So, this time, although the consumer sentiment index was not good, it seems that in the second half of the year, if interest rates and real estate rise, it could improve due to the wealth effect. Retail stocks could also be influenced by the level of interest rates, so I think you should keep an eye on that. Additionally, companies like Hugel and Pharma Research have high expectations for their performance. Similarly, I hope you consider firms like Firm Korea. Also, on Wednesday, Novo Nordisk will announce its earnings, so you should check that as well. On Thursday, there will be a report on China's reverse exchange rate, but I think Korea's options market will be more important. It would be good to see if volatility increases again. Kakao will announce its earnings, and CJ's entertainment subsidiaries, as well as Netmarble, will also be in focus.

After the earnings announcement, what else should we consider regarding companies like Wonni, IPS, and Korea Zinc? These days, I'm particularly interested in wind power stocks, so I hope you take a look at those. Also, the pharmaceutical and biotech sectors in the U.S. are set to announce their first-quarter earnings, so it would be good to keep an eye on that as well. 

Lastly, on Friday, China will release its CPI and PPI data. I'm curious to see how that will turn out, as it seems related to the economy. Given that it's related to economic conditions, I think it will have an impact. Additionally, there are discussions about the military use of AI, which is something to keep in mind. 

Naver will also announce its earnings, so I hope you check that out. It would be great if you could also keep track of the earnings announcements from Huons and CJ Daehan Talk.

연 이은 폭락장, 주식 다 팔아야 할까? "주가 급락,이렇게 대응하세요" / 금리 인하 수혜 받을, 다음 주도주는 "이 것" | 김민수 대표

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