2024년 주식 시장 동향 및 투자 인사이트

### 시장 인사이트 성장, 주식 예측 및 기업 뉴스
* 📈 주식 시장은 올해 **S&P 500 지수와 나스닥 지수가 모두 21% 상승**하는 등 상당한 상승세를 보이고 있어 현명한 투자자에게는 상당한 수익을 안겨주고 있습니다.
* 🧐 월가의 저명한 투자자인 톰 리는 시장 재편과 다가오는 선거로 인해 향후 몇 달간 주식 시장이 불확실할 것이라고 예측하며 **주식 성과를 '동전 던지기'에 비유**했습니다.
* 💼 기술 뉴스에서 Aswat Dador는 현재 많은 투자자의 포트폴리오에 포함되어 있지 않음에도 불구하고 **저평가되어 있다고 생각하는 NVIDIA의 강력한 전망**을 강조하며 빅테크 밸류에이션을 분석합니다.
* 📉 코스트코의 주가는 매출 예상치를 하회한 후 **1.7% 하락**했지만, 올해 들어 주식 가치가 **36% 상승**하고 **92.9%의 인상적인 재계약률**을 기록하며 견고한 성장세를 이어가고 있습니다.
* 💔 한편, 아마존 직원의 **73%가 정규직으로 복귀해야 한다는 새로운 명령**으로 인해 퇴사를 고려하고 있는 것으로 나타나 회사의 결정에 대한 직원들의 불만이 높은 것으로 나타났습니다.
* 🌀 영리 모델로 전환하는 과정에서 여러 임원이 회사를 떠나는 등 **샘 알트먼이 이끄는 OpenAI의 혼란**이 계속되면서 우려의 목소리가 커지고 있습니다.
* 💰 전반적으로 투자자들은 시장 변동과 기업 상황의 불확실성 속에서 신중한 자세를 유지하며 **하락 시 이를 활용**하는 것이 좋습니다.

톰 리는 다가오는 대선으로 인해 투자자들의 경계심이 높아지면서 향후 몇 달간 주식 시장의 방향이 불확실할 것이라고 전망합니다.

Welcome back, everyone. Today on the Jose Carlson show, the stock market continues to race up. The S&P 500 this year is up 21%. The NASDAQ as well is up 21%. Most of us, if we've been investing well, have made major gains this year. And one of Wall Street's biggest bulls, Tom Lee, has been bullish this entire year. But he says over the next couple of months, it's a coin flip. But what stocks doing the next month is a bit of a coin flip. We'll be going over why he believes the next couple of months is a coin flip and what he sees in the long-term future. We also have some other news to get to. Aswat Dador recently did a breakdown of the valuation of big tech companies. I hold many of these companies in my portfolio, but one of them that he talks about that I do not own is NVIDIA. He feels strongly about the valuation of NVIDIA. We're going to take a look at it. We also have news that Costco is down 1.7% on the day.

after they reported their earnings, we're going to take a look at how many warehouses they opened, what their business looks like, what the growth outlook looks like, what the renewal rate looks like after they implemented price increases. We'll even be looking at Costco weighing in on a claim that Diddy's lawyer made that Diddy was buying a lot of baby oil in bulk from Costco. We have even more news that 73% of Amazon workers are considering quitting after going back into the office 5 days a week, and of course the mess that's going on with OpenAI and Sam Altman. A lot of executives have left the company. Sam Altman says that it's no big deal, it's just the normal course of business. We'll be looking at what's really going on with Sam Altman and why I don't trust him. So, we have a lot of news to get to in this episode, but we'll start off by turning first to the story of the market going up this year over

and over this has been a great year for the S&P 500 and the QQQ. If you've invested wisely, this has been a great year, the type of year investors can hope for. When I look at my investments, I have to be satisfied with the way things are going. Some of my largest investments in dominant financial companies continue to soar. In the tech category, obviously, big tech with Microsoft and Apple is doing great. This year was a particularly good year for Apple. If we look at Salesforce, even one of the companies that's been struggling has finally worked its way back into the green. Now it's in the green by just a hair, so it's teetering between the green and the red. But this was just a short time ago, a $10,000 loss. So by holding this company, adding a little bit more on dips, it's now back to a neutral position. Salesforce was the only position I held that was in the red. In the consumer category, my newest stock position, Booking Holdings, is off to a great start.

it is a $53,000 position with already $7,000 in the green. That's an 18% gain in a short amount of time. If we look at Booking Holdings, it now trades at $4,200 per share, and it's been on an incredible run. I added a lot to this position in August at a lower price because I saw that the drop-off after earnings was undeserved, so I'm not surprised to see that the stock is now going up. When I look at Booking Holdings today, I still see it as good value. Texas Roadhouse continues to be a sleeping giant. This company just grows and grows. It gives returns in multiple ways. The stock is up 47% year-to-date, not factoring in dividends. If you price those in, it's up around 50%. One of the interesting statistics that I give out about Texas Roadhouse, a statistic that's true but sounds false, is that Texas Roadhouse, this restaurant, has outperformed Google year-to-date. It's outperformed Google over the one year.

it's outperformed Google over the 5 years, and it's outperformed Google stock over the past trailing 10 years. It sounds crazy to say that this restaurant company is outperforming a top AI company, a monopolistic company, but it has. I now have as much gains in Texas Roadhouse as I do Costco. It is now a $77,000 position with $42,000 in the green. Texas Roadhouse and Costco have both done so well that they're now my third and fourth largest holdings in my portfolio, beating out companies like Microsoft, Intuit, and Salesforce. On top of the capital appreciation from these companies, the portfolio keeps compounding aart because of the dividends. Just from September 6th, I've received four major dividends: one from Moody's Corporation, which is $86; S&P Global paid me $188 on September 11th; Microsoft paid me $122 on September 12th; Texas Roadhouse paid a $265 dividend on September 24th. So now I'm sitting with $11,000 in cash, all of that from

dividends that I get to spend some time looking around at my holdings and choose which one I want to reinvest in. So overall, just as a brief summary, this has been a fun year. Any investor should be happy about this year. Companies are earning greater cash flows, they're paying investors more through share buybacks and dividends, and if you've chosen companies well, you should be seeing gains. Now, the question for most investors when we have times like this where the market is racing up is what do you do in these situations. A lot of investors stand to make mistakes. They sell stocks too early, they exit, they go to cash in the goal of selling high and buying low, but the market continues to race up after they sell. So knowing what to do is easier said than done. One person that's been more right than wrong on this issue is Tom Lee, and he gives some perspective of why he thinks the next couple of months is a coin toss. Well, you know, I think the Fed unleashed us on an easing cycle, and that's

going to be positive. We know it's actually historically positive 3 months, 6 months out, but what Stock's doing the next month is a bit of a coin flip, and I think that's what we're seeing because there's some repositioning that took place, and also we're now thinking about the 40 days into the election. He notes that the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates is typically positive for the stock market if you look out 3 to 6 months from those initial cuts. So, we just had the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points. If we look out 3 to 6 months, we should be in the green from the time they cut. Between those 3 to 6 months, we don't know, and that's why he's saying the next couple of months is a coin flip. Now, overall, I agree with this assessment. I think it's accurate to say that cutting interest rates is good for the stock market. It's mathematically beneficial for Equity portfolios to have a lower cost of

capital when companies borrow money, they get cheaper rates with lower interest rates. It's mathematically beneficial for equity portfolios to have other alternative investments like fixed income and treasuries to have a lower yield. That means that you're not competing with the higher yield of treasuries. So just from a mathematical standpoint, I agree with Tom Lee. It makes sense for interest rate cuts to benefit stocks. The only caveat I would give is in some cases when interest rates are cut, it's because the economy is going into recession. And obviously, a recession is not good for anyone. So if we get into the scenario where the FED is cutting interest rates because we're headed into a recession, that's obviously not going to benefit stocks. But outside of that one scenario of going into recession, this is beneficial for stocks. Now the other factor that he notes causing some uncertainty over the next couple of months is, of course, the general election. Election is but 40 days away, sort of ruin the perfect scenario for stocks to get that post-FED bump. I think it

delays it um just because you know in the conferences that I've been speaking to, speaking at, and seeing wealth managers and family offices. A lot don't want to commit capital until after election day, and I don't think it matters who wins. It's just they want to get that event behind them. Oh, so you think we're going to have sort of a dash to the finish after election day is out of the way? Yeah, and that's pretty typical, you know. In fact, in election years, the November-December rallies are pretty tremendous, and in fact, when markets are up more than 10% in the first half, you also get big rallies November-December, sort of choppy through September. Tom Le spot on here. Investors don't like uncertainty, and although the market has done well this election season, it is true that some companies want to get past the elections before making investments. In terms of who wins, I don't think businesses are making big decisions on that. Both of them have their differences on tax.

policy. Cala wants to raise taxes on corporations. TR wants to raise taxes on tariffs. But either way, most companies will likely do the exact same thing after the election than they would have before. They'll just wait until the election to do it. Now, the next topic that he hits on is that scenario I brought up of potentially entering into a recession. The only thing that could ruin Tom Lee's prediction of markets being up 3 to 6 months after the FED cut is the economy entering into a recession. Uh, so far so good. This Friday we get core PCE and hopefully that confirms inflation is no longer on Front Burner. But I'd say one thing I've noticed is that the number of investors and professional money managers that think we're already in a recession is very high. And so I think the evidence just has to be better than expected. And I think those views shift back to soft land. Tom Lee is judging the sentiment of different companies and many business leaders are saying, Hey, look, we're

already in a recessionary territory. They have all their different numbers and instruments they can base that off of. I think we're in recession if GDP turns negative and if unemployment rates start going up. So far, we've seen the unemployment rate start to go up, but GDP has remained positive. So, as of right now, I don't think we're technically in a recession, but I do think we could get there quickly. I'm bullish into your end, but I'm a little less confident about how we markets behave into election day. And not that I think we're going to have a huge draw down. If we do have a big draw down, you know, I'd be buying that dip. But I also don't think we can make new highs and then see the market last off after election day. So, I'd rather sort of say things look a lot better after election day. The message is simple: stay the course and buy the dip if you have a well-thought-out investment strategy of buying either.

an ETF, a basket of companies or the best companies in the world, any type of distressful times like elections or uncertainty are typically buying opportunities. I appreciate Tom Lee because I agree 100% with this investment strategy, and I do the same thing myself. I'm not someone to just talk about it; I also walk the walk. If we have any big dip in the market leading up to elections or through the end of the year, I will use it as opportunities to capitalize on companies I want to have a greater equity stake in. I'll be buying up some of the best companies in the world. This has worked for me over the past seven years of investing, and I think it will continue to work in the future. Now moving on, let's jump into some news here. We have news that Costco just reported their earnings report. The stock is down on the day because they missed on their revenue. I want to play a brief clip on this earnings miss. They are lower in overtime by just over 4% at the moment after missing revenue.

estimates when they reported just moments ago. Joining us now to discuss is Arun Sunderam. That's a bummer. Costco goes down 4.4% on the day after missing the revenue estimate. Wait a minute, something feels off with this clip. It says here Costco's $750. Oh, I see the problem. That's when Costco missed their revenue estimate 6 months ago. They missed their revenue estimate 6 months ago. The stock dropped 4.4%, and that was at $750 per share. Now today, fast forwarding 6 months, the stock is up $130 to $884 after again missing their revenue estimate and having the stock drop a couple percent. I followed companies like Costco for such a long period of time that I know the drill by now. Anytime a company like this has an earnings miss, they'll bring on an expert, they'll discuss it. In most cases, they remain positive on the company, but they give some perspective and caution on it overall. It gives you the feeling that you need to pay attention to these

minute details in reality. As long as Costco remains Costco, the company's going to be okay. This is a world-class company. It is the best company in the world. It's one that has a membership so loyal to it that people won't cancel their membership even after price increases. So, while it's true that Costco had a slight revenue miss, that's not an indication of how to trade this stock. And if you're one of the investors that got cold feet and sold out of the stock at a revenue miss in the past, you would have missed out on substantial gains. Over the past year, Costco has been a massive winner, going up 36% year-to-date, on top of paying a $16 per share dividend at the start of the year. It has doubled the returns of the S&P 500 and the QQQ this year. If we look at the earnings report and the commentary from management, they said on the earnings call that we also continue to see significant opportunities worldwide, and our fiscal 2025 plan has 12 of our

planned 29 openings coming outside of the US. 12 of the 29 new openings are outside the US, and these are successful. We've seen video after video of the openings outside the US, and there are lines outside the door. People love the Costco experience. I've been there enough to know that that's not just a US consumer thing. It's a general consensus that people like the experience of extra-wide parking lots, where you have room between you and the next car. People like the experience of ample walking room on the warehouse floor. They like the experience of different merchandise every time you go there. They like the experience of happy, well-trained staff and good return policies. This type of thing has general appeal, and you're seeing it show up in the numbers. They also noted that their e-commerce business shouldn't be underestimated. Costco Logistics has had a remarkable year. Appliances and furniture in big and bulky has led the way, and logistics delivered over 4.5 million items this last year, up 29% over the prior year. So

Costco is gaining ground in delivery. Now the way that they compete with Amazon is they do a completely different focus. Amazon focuses on small things, things they can get to you in 2 days, these are little electronics, little house appliances, batteries, little things that you order on a daily basis. Amazon specializes in that, and Costco knows they're not going to beat Amazon at Amazon's game. So Costco has maneuvered into big and bulky items. This puts them in more competition with companies like Lowe's and Home Depot, but those are easier competitors to go head-to-head with than Amazon. The big and bulky items from Costco are getting better and better. Their shipment times are getting better, their logistics are getting better, their customer service is getting better in that category. Everything's improving with their online big and bulky items. Now we know that Costco recently pushed forward a price increase on their membership. This was a small enough price increase that I thought, in fact, I was very confident that we'd see no meaningful change in membership renewal. I think I even said

beyond meaningful. I said that I don't think a single person will cancel their membership because of the price increase. It was so small that it's just a non-factor. Nobody's going to cancel a Costco membership because of a $5 per year price increase. But we see it in the numbers here. They say in terms of renewal rates. Our Q4 end in the US and Canada renewal rate was 92.9%, down one-tenth of a percent from the end of Q3. If we look at qualum, we can see this mapped out. If we go to Renewal rates here, we can see it over time. We look at that compared to the prior quarter, and it's down from 93, so 1/10th of a percent. Just two quarters ago, it was 92.9. So basically, the renewal rate went up a tiny bit, then it ebbed and flowed back down. They actually note here the reason that it went down a tenth of a percent. They say this slight decrease is related to online membership promotions.

that we ran for a short period in fiscal year 2023, which resulted in over 200,000 new signups. As those members entered the renewal rate calculation during Q4 fiscal 2024, the lower renewal rate is for that cohort. So, they can track that the people that had a lower renewal rate was this promotional group. And they say specifically that outside of those signups, there were no meaningful changes in US renewal rate, meaning that increasing their price for their membership had no meaningful changes in renewal rate overall. There's a lot of reasons to be optimistic on a going-forward basis of Costco's future. The company obviously has things figured out. They'll generate growing amounts of profits with growing amounts of membership and raising prices. Investors can stew over the Ford PE ratio. The company trades at a high multiple. The free cash flow yield looks a little better, around 1.9%. I don't think Costco is at a still right now. It's probably a company that should be put on the watch.

list and maybe looked at when it dips down. It does that from time to time, but in my case, I continue to hold this company. I'm not selling a single share now. Outside of Costco's earnings report, there was one other piece of news related to Costco that I think was worth mentioning. Costco was invoked by Diddy's lawyer. He brought up Costco in an attempt to defend why Diddy had a thousand baby oil bottles. This is just hilarious. It's TMZ talking to Diddy's lawyer, and he basically tries to squirm his way out of this question. How do you explain a thousand bottles of baby oil? I think a reasonable question. It's not every day you find someone that has a thousand bottles of baby oil in their house, but apparently, Diddy did. And it's a good question for the lawyer. What is he going to say about this in terms of trying to defend the reputation of his client? And of course, the go-to answer for the lawyer is Costco, a big house. He

buys in bulk. You know, I think they have Costco in every place where he has a home. He just answers Costco. It's just too good. I mean, I don't blame him. A lot of people are like, This lawyer is an idiot. This lawyer is so stupid. The lawyer is doing his job. He has a client that he's trying to get the best defense he can, so he's trying to basically talk away any concern, any problem when it's brought up. He has all these weird items in his house. He says, Well, he buys it in bulk. He just bought a thousand containers of baby oil. Now, obviously, the answer doesn't make sense. The lawyer is trying his best, but it just doesn't make sense under any scenario. When you look at buying in bulk, it's true that you might buy like 20 of something or maybe even 50, but what item are you buying a thousand of in bulk? I shop at Costco all the time, and I don't know any single item that I buy a thousand of in

bulk now. This news went so viral. It got so much attention online that apparently Diddy was one of Costco's biggest customers. He was a whale at the store just buying bulk items of baby oil. The Costco actually responded to it. They corrected the record. They reached out to TMZ and said specifically that this claim is obviously false because Costco don't carry baby oil. So here we are in 2024. We have Costco clapping back at Diddy's lawyer correcting the record about the thousand bottles of baby oil as reported on TMZ. This is the type of headline that I would have never guessed in a million years but this is the reality we live in. This is real life now. Anytime the market races up like it has over the past year or two investors are concerned about where to allocate new capital. A lot of us have some money from our jobs that we're wanting to put in the market every couple of weeks as we get paid and knowing where to put it becomes more difficult when everything.

seems to be going to the Moon. Well, Aswat Dad Doran looks at the valuation of different companies and done this for big Tech. He gives a breakdown of where he sees value and where he doesn't. I see the fact that needs of the companies. Everybody wants to flock to, but in the last few months, we've had reminders with each of these companies about the weakest lengths. With Nvidia, it was around the earnings announcement, which is you saw how high expectations have been set and what looked like a good earnings report turned out to be a disappointment. With Nvidia, he notes the power of expectations. Nvidia had incredible earnings. Every single metric of the company was going to the moon, but the stock price didn't budge because of the power of expectations. No matter how good a company is, if it's priced with even better expectations, the stock will likely stay flat. With Apple, we've lived from upgrade to upgrade. Now 16 upgrades in, I know why we surprised one upgrade. No measures up to expectation, the next.

one doesn't with apple. He notes the consensus right now is that the upgrade cycle is less and less exciting every single cycle. Now, there's a lot of people thinking that this one's going to be extra exciting because of AI. That may be the case, but Apple hasn't even put that in their devices, so it's still a little bit more muted than we'd like. With Google, we're still waiting for the next big business. They still make so much of their money from the search box. He is correct in noting that Google search engine makes up the huge majority of the revenue and operating income. It's true that there's a weak spot or a bear thesis for every company, but he turns his attention to one in particular, one company that he thinks is vastly overvalued in this group. I mean, rather than overvalued, undervalued, let's talk about investing odds. If investing is a game of odds, with Nvidia, the odds are against you because of how high a price you're paying. With Apple, the odds might be

even odds with alphabet and meta. I think the odds are still with you because to the extent that these companies can pull off something outside their core businesses, you're going to get the bonus from that. So, he thinks Google and meta are the best buys right now. He thinks that Apple's neutral and Nvidia is a negative. And he goes on to stress the type of odds you're betting on when you're investing in Nvidia at this price point. Now, I'm biased on this point because I obviously agree with Aswath on this one. I think Nvidia is a scary stock to be in right now for a couple of reasons. While it's true that companies like Costco have a higher PE ratio than Nvidia and slower growth, many people may point to that and say, Hey, look, Costco is a far more expensive company than Nvidia. It's at a higher valuation and it has slower growth. The big thing about Costco though is the steadiness of the company. The revenue growth didn't happen overnight. It wasn't an occurrence that

came out of some marvelous invention. It wasn't some new technology. It's been proven time over time for literally decades, three to four decades now. Costco has been steadily increasing revenue year-over-year. The map shows this over time. It's really remarkable to see the consistency of the company. And Costco makes the majority of its profits not by its revenue growth but by its membership. If you look at the membership growth, it's even more steady than the revenue. The membership growth is how they make profits. So Costco is at a high valuation, but it's a predictable company with a predictable outlook. When you have a company that has a higher degree of predictability, you can lower the discount rate, which means that the intrinsic value of the company is likely higher. With Nvidia, investors can't argue through the history of the company that this one is as predictable as a company like Costco, and it trades at a rather high valuation, 444d PE ratio, IO, and a 1.5% free cash flow yield. So the free cash flow yield is very low. The PE ratio

is high, and when we look at Nvidia, you'll notice a very different story over its history. There is volatility in the revenue profile, there are huge ups and downs, there's massive cyclicality, and there is, of course, the gigantic one-time spike from 2023. Investors that extrapolate out the growth of Nvidia are extrapolating out that they won't have the same type of history that they have in the future, that no longer will Nvidia, this hardware maker, be a cyclical company, that they're going to build out tools of subscription-based in Koda and other software programs that will remove the historical cyclicality of the company. And although that could be true, it's not nearly as predictable as a company like Costco. And this is why it's important to look at more than just PE ratios and free cash flow yields, trying to assess the durability, the ongoing predictability of the business, and the competitive landscape is more and more important. Now, again, like I said, I'm biased on this subject. Just two months ago, I came out with a video saying that I think that

the AI bubble is about to pop. There's so much investment going into AI without any visible return, and Nvidia is the poster child of the company benefiting from AI investments without returns. So, I thought that Nvidia is at a point now where the valuation is so high, there's so much expected of the company, that no longer are we going to see the massive guides up like we have through the past. And this has been proven true through one earnings report. Now, I don't know if this is going to continue, but so far, I hold the exact same view. To me, the biggest concerns with Nvidia are the rapid growth, reliance on a one-time boom in technology through AI, and the historical volatility with aswat Dad Dorn. It's mostly based off of what he calls the betting odds with the implied expectations. Well, I mean, but I'm I want to address it as an investment to make because I, you know, at 34 times, it's cheaper than it has been for certain. Secondly, we've heard

from Jensen Wong recently. You know, as I don't know within even the last couple of weeks about the great demand that the company continues to see. They have, by all accounts, what you know many would suggest to be not just a first-mover advantage, but in fact a moat because of their installed base, much the like we talk about Apple. Now, before we get to ASOS's answer for this, we can interject and just bring up a few points. First of all, he brings up the PE ratio to note the low valuation. And this, again, is such a myopic view. PE ratios are based on the next 12 months of earnings, the next four earnings reports. Analysts get together, they predict what they think the next four quarters will look like, and investors use that to judge purchasing a company trading at 30-plus times their next four quarters. So, they're looking out 30 years and judging what that company's worth based on the next four quarters. It's just not enough. You need way more context in history to judge buying a company where you're

pricing in 30 years of earnings. The other point is comparing the moat of Nvidia to Apple, which I think is just frankly wrong. Nvidia does not have the same moat as Apple, and I would argue against anyone that tries to make that claim. Nvidia offers a very good product; they are the best at what they do. The chip architecture is far beyond what other people have done. But we also said the same thing for Intel just 10 years ago until Apple stole their employees, their best engineers, and built out Apple silicon, which doubled their performance within 2 years. So, we've seen the story of hardware makers being surpassed by other hardware makers in the future. If you steal the right talent, you can build the best chips. If you make the right investments, you can surpass the leader. Nvidia is the leader right now, but that does not give them a sustainable, unbreakable moat in the way that Apple has done. Apple has a moat not because they're the best at creating iPhones, but because they have the

ecosystem. The ecosystem of software and their massive install base makes it virtually impossible for someone else to come in and surpass them. They'd have to create an entire App Store on top of a phone, which is impossible to do for new entrants. That's why companies like Amazon with the Amazon Fire phone could not get enough developers on their device. So, when looking at the moat analysis between Apple and Nvidia, I think Apple's moat right now is significantly wider than Nvidia's. Now, Aswath takes a different approach. He doesn't try to contest any of these points. What if Nvidia is just cheap on a PE ratio basis? What if Nvidia has an Apple-like moat? Even in that scenario, Nvidia's overvalued according to Aswath. Let me concede all of those. It's an amazing company going after a big market that's going to dominate because it has immense moats. But that would mean that you would need a trillion dollars in revenues and 70% margins to be delivered 10 years from now. Reverse engineering.

from the $3 trillion market cap. So, even if you took every word that Jensen Wong takes as the truth and you built it in, I still have a tough time getting to three trillion. I mean, this is a company that, if you look at the current numbers, has to have immense growth and maintain 70% operating margins to deliver what you paid already upfront as a price. That's what I mean about investing odds being, you know, against you. You priced this company to be the most amazing company of all time. Where's the upside left if it's just amazing rather than the most amazing company? That's a disappointment. So, I think this is something you're going to see the back and forth on in terms of expectations, but the expectations at some point have to get reset. So, I agree with Aswath here. There is upside for NVIDIA, but the odds are against you. Now, moving on, we get to this headline that there's a new survey showing that 73% of Amazon workers are considering quitting after a 5-day in.

office mandate. Amazon workers have until January before they'll be expected to be in corporate office offices 5 days a week, and they are enforcing this through scanning the badges. So, Amazon's going to make sure their employees are actually going into the office every single day unless they have a reasonable excuse. And of course, employees are not happy about this. In a recent survey of 2,585 Amazon employees on an anonymous job report review site, Blind, 73% said that they are considering looking for a new job following CEO Andy Jassy's recent memo announcing a full-time return to office. Conversations online tend to be critical of employers, so I do like in this article that they point out that this survey, even though it looks really gloomy, 73% of employees are considering quitting now after this statement. They also point out that this is kind of a complainers website. You go to the website Blind not to give glowing reviews of your employer and how much you love your boss and company. You kind of go there to complain in the first

place. So, what this is called with surveying is sample bias. You're looking at a group of employees that are already heavily biased to the negative. But either way, there's a lot of employees obviously unhappy with this move. They say that 80% of Amazon professionals polled reported that they know of a colleague considering looking for another job because of the announcement. If I was to critique Amazon, I believe that they made a mistake in only doing a negative. They only did a negative with this change. There's no positive you can look at from the employee perspective. Employees are losing autonomy and flexibility with their schedule, and as far as they can tell, they're getting nothing in return. If Amazon would have coupled this with the small pay increase, saying, We're going to raise everyone's salary 3%, that would have been small, but it would have been something to show, Hey, we're requiring you to come into the office, and we're going to pay you a little bit more. There's some redeeming quality to soften the blow, but Amazon announced

this news has only a negative impact, and I think that was their biggest problem. Now, there are some analysts saying that the strict attendance policy is a filter mechanism to naturally have the people quit that you want gone from the company. People that will complain about the schedule, that they don't want to be really bought in with Amazon, they're going to be the first to leave the company. So ultimately, we'll get to see what happens with this policy. There's going to be a lot of eyes on it, whether they keep it over the next coming years or whether they reverse it. Now, moving on, we get to the story of Sam Altman and OpenAI and the continued overall confusing disaster the operations of this company have been. It's really been a mess overall, and they can't seem to keep drama out of their company. The latest move is a massive shakeup of the company's executive team in combination at the same time from the company transitioning from a nonprofit to a profit company. But overall, the story is one that really makes me feel more

confident in my position of just not trusting Sam Altman. Now, there's not many people I say that about that I just don't trust, but I think I have enough actual information here to make that assessment. The first red flag for trusting Sam Altman, I believe, was the answer he gave to Congress on why he's working on OpenAI. You make a lot of money, do you? I make no. I paid enough for health insurance. I have no equity in OpenAI, really. That's interesting. You need a lawyer. I need a what? You need a lawyer or an agent. I'm doing this 'cause I love it. Now, it is true that Sam Altman has made money previous to OpenAI, so he could feasibly be doing this only because he loves it, but it just strikes me as sounding a little too good to be true. It's like he's trying to paint himself as someone that's only charitable and he has no ambition of making money in this company at all, which is very difficult for me to

believe it. Also, it didn't help that about a day after that meeting, there was a video that surfaced showing him driving this car that's worth like a million dollars. This is not the profile of someone that's doing something with no ambition of making money. Now again, there's no big thing that he's done to cause an extreme amount of criticism, but overall, there's just a lot of little red flags, things that I noticed with Sam Altman's history. For example, the company that he's running, OpenAI, that he says he has no ambition of making money in it, that he just does it because he loves it, is now transitioning from a nonprofit to a for-profit company. That's not typically something you do if you don't want to make money with it. But maybe this is a necessary change for OpenAI. The company will be more attractive to investors, and apparently, OpenAI does need funding. They need more money as this company is currently unprofitable. One thing that happened during this time period was OpenAI executives are seemingly far less

impressed with the plans on Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon, OpenAI's Chief Technology Officer, we have the CTO of the company, the VP of Research, and the Chief Research Officer all announced they would be leaving the company. So, we have three executives all announcing that they're departing the company on the exact same day. And the same day, the company announces that it's going to a for-profit company. Sam Altman took to Twitter to explain that these changes are normal. These are run-of-the-mill changes that every business goes through. Quote, Leadership changes are a natural part of companies, especially companies that grow so quickly and are so demanding. This is a form of rewriting history or gaslighting the reader. Changes like this are not normal for any company. I've worked at startup companies, and it is true that changes in leadership are a natural part of companies, but having three top executives all quit on the same day during the news of a major announcement is not the natural part of companies. That's not something that normally happens in the course of business.

that is in fact the exact opposite. It's unnatural. It's unusual. It should draw attention and perhaps some inquiry of what happened. And instead of Sam Altman being forthright and actually explaining what happened, the reasons they're leaving, what's going on, and how he's going to fix it, he instead takes the route of trying to downplay it and minimize it. Now, he did give the caveat here that quote, I obviously won't pretend it's natural for this one to be so abrupt, but we are not a normal company. This excuse makes no sense. OpenAI is not a normal company. What does that even mean? What is implied by that? Because they're making an unusual technology. There's lots of companies making the exact same technology. Microsoft is working on it. You have Meta making their own version of an LLM, their own version of AI. You have Amazon making the same thing. And of course, you have Google making the same thing. And none of them have had multiple of their top executives quit all on the same day. So

again, instead of remaining transparent with what's actually going on with the company, he tries to downplay it, minimize it, and remain opaque. Overall, it's just the same story again and again with Sam Altman. There's some disastrous thing that happens to people close to him. If you recall, it wasn't that long ago that these same people that quit were the ones that fired him. The board of OpenAI canned Sam Altman, and then investors complained, and he was rehired within 5 days. On November 17th, 2023, OpenAI's board of directors ousted the company's founders and chief executive, Sam Altman, after the board had no confidence in his leadership. The removal was caused by concerns about his handling of artificial intelligence safety and allegations of abusive behavior. Is that just abnormal because OpenAI is an abnormal company, or is there something else going on? The product that the OpenAI team has created is great, but the problems with the management are apparent, and I think they're going to

Continue as long as Sam Mann is running the company. I predict that these ongoing shakeups, the revolving door of ex-executives, the problems with employees close to him, are going to continue as long as he's around. Now, that's going to be it for this episode. I hope you enjoyed, and I'll see you in the next one.

The Stock Market Is Now A Coin Flip

Joseph Carlson

주식 시장 급등과 개인 투자 성공

올해 들어 S&P 500 지수와 나스닥 지수가 모두 21% 상승하는 등 주식 시장은 강한 상승세를 보이고 있습니다.

월스트리트의 저명한 강세론자인 톰 리는 앞으로 몇 달 동안 주식이 불확실할 것이라고 예측합니다.

이 발표자는 특히 주요 금융회사, 빅테크, 부킹 홀딩스(Booking Holdings)에 투자하여 18%까지 급등하는 등 상당한 수익을 올렸습니다.

또한 텍사스 로드하우스는 여러 기간에 걸쳐 구글을 능가하는 성과를 거두며 발표자의 최대 보유 종목 중 하나가 되는 등 뛰어난 성과를 거두었습니다.

시장 불확실성 속에서의 투자 전략

올해는 기업들이 현금 흐름을 늘리고 자사주 매입과 배당을 통해 더 많은 배당금을 지급하는 등 투자자들에게 긍정적인 한 해였습니다.

톰 리는 연방준비제도의 금리 인하와 다가오는 대선으로 인해 향후 몇 달이 불확실하다고 생각합니다.

그는 금리 인하는 일반적으로 장기적으로 주식 시장에 도움이 되지만, 경기 침체 가능성과 선거의 불확실성으로 인해 투자자들의 자본 투입이 지연될 수 있다고 말합니다.

코스트코의 실적 부진과 향후 전망

코스트코의 주가는 매출 예상치를 하회한 후 4.

4% 하락했지만, 전년 대비 36% 상승하고 주당 16달러의 배당금을 지급하는 등 상당한 성장세를 보이고 있습니다.

29개의 신규 매장 중 12개가 미국 외 지역에서 개장하는 등 성공적인 글로벌 확장과 강력한 이커머스 비즈니스가 성공에 기여했습니다.

실적 부진에도 불구하고 코스트코의 충성도 높은 회원 기반과 긍정적인 고객 경험은 지속적인 성장을 견인할 것으로 예상됩니다.

코스트코의 경쟁 전략 및 최근 동향

코스트코는 아마존의 소품목 전략에 맞추기보다는 로우스나 홈디포와 같은 회사와 경쟁하면서 크고 부피가 큰 배송 품목에 집중하고 있습니다.

코스트코의 멤버십 갱신율은 신규 가입 프로모션으로 인해 소폭 감소했지만, 최근 멤버십 가격 인상의 전반적인 영향은 미미했습니다.

또한 온라인 주문에 대한 물류 및 고객 서비스 개선과 더불어 수익 및 회원 수 증가는 코스트코의 긍정적인 미래를 보여주고 있습니다.

디디의 베이비 오일 논란과 기술 투자 인사이트

디디는 코스트코의 주요 고객으로 잘못 보도되어 대량으로 베이비 오일을 구매했고, 코스트코는 이를 공개적으로 정정했습니다.

최근 기술 시장의 급등으로 인해 투자자들이 새로운 자본을 배분하는 것이 어려워진 가운데, Aswat Dad Doran은 대형 기술 기업의 가치를 분석했습니다.

그는 구글과 메타가 최고의 투자 기회를 제공하는 반면, 엔비디아는 고평가되어 있고 위험하며, 코스트코의 안정적이고 예측 가능한 성장과는 대조적이라고 말합니다.

엔비디아의 변동이 심한 역사와 미래

Nvidia의 매출은 기복이 심하고 2023년에 일회성으로 크게 급증하는 등 변동성이 컸습니다.

투자자들은 이 회사가 구독 기반 소프트웨어로 확장하여 주기적인 성격에서 벗어날 수 있기를 희망하고 있지만 이러한 전환은 예측할 수 없습니다.

칩 시장에서 엔비디아의 리더십이 지속 가능하다고 보장할 수 없고 회사의 미래 성장과 가치 평가가 불확실하기 때문에 엔비디아의 해자를 애플의 해자와 비교하는 것은 결함이 있습니다.

NVIDIA와 아마존의 새로운 사무실이 직면한 과제

3조 달러의 시가총액을 자랑하는 NVIDIA는 야심찬 기업으로 여겨지며, 기대에 부응하기 위해서는 엄청난 성장과 높은 영업 마진이 필요합니다.

아마존은 직원들에게 주 5일 사무실 복귀를 의무화한 새로운 정책으로 인해 73%가 퇴사를 고려하고 있으며, 배지 스캔을 통해 이 정책을 시행하고 있습니다.

긍정적인 인센티브의 부족과 함께 의무화의 부정적인 영향으로 인해 많은 직원들이 불만을 품고 있으며 정책의 효과에 대한 의문이 제기되고 있습니다.

샘 알트만과 OpenAI를 둘러싼 논란

샘 알트먼이 비영리 단체에서 영리 기업으로 전환하면서 자금이 필요하고 같은 날 3명의 최고 경영진이 떠난다는 점에서 특히 많은 사람들의 이목을 집중시켰습니다.

이러한 리더십 변화를 경시하는 알트먼의 태도와 비정상적인 상황 대처는 비판을 불러일으켰습니다.

회사의 지속적인 경영 문제와 경영진의 높은 이직률은 알트만이 계속 책임을 맡고 있는 한 계속될 것으로 보입니다.