주식 시장: 경제 위기를 가리키는 지표

미국 주식 시장은 꾸준히 상승하고 있지만, S&P 500 주가수익비율은 잠재적인 경제 위기를 시사하고 있습니다.

### 미국 및 글로벌 주식 시장 분석과 향후 전망, 투자 전략
* 📈 미국 주식 시장은 **엔비디아, 애플과 같은 거대 기술 기업이 높은 수준**을 유지하면서 꾸준히 상승하고 있습니다.
* 📉 전반적인 시장의 상승세에도 불구하고 **개별 종목은 하락 추세**를 보이고 있습니다.
* 🛑 다우존스 지수는 **5월 중순에 정점**을 찍은 후 한 달 동안 하락 추세를 보였으며 현재 **통합 단계**에 있습니다.
* 💰 주식 시장은 코로나19 팬데믹 발생 이후 최장 기간인 **330일 동안 단 한 번도 2% 이상 하락하지 않고 상승 추세**를 이어가고 있습니다.
* 🔮 153년의 역사를 가진 지표인 **S&P 500 주가수익비율(P/E)이 30포인트를 넘어서면서 경제 위기가 임박**했음을 알리고 있습니다.
* 🏦 캐나다에서는 **2023년 말부터 기업 파산 건수가 급증**하여 금융 위기 이후 최고 수준에 도달했습니다.
* 💻 특히 **반도체와 AI 분야의 기술주가 대부분의 투자**를 유치하고 있어 시장 집중도가 높습니다.
* 🧠 S&P 500 시가총액 상위 10개 종목이 전체 지수에서 차지하는 비중은 **37.5%**로 닷컴 버블 이후 최고 수준이지만, 가치 투자의 기회는 점점 줄어들고 있습니다.
* 📉 S&P 500 지수가 사상 최고치를 기록했지만 **대부분의 개별 종목은 지수 대비 초과수익**을 내지 못하고 있습니다.
* 어려운 시장 상황을 고려할 때 **수급 관련 종목에 대한 단기 투자**에 집중하고 향후 기회를 위해 **현금을 축적**하는 것이 좋습니다.

Hello, this is Kim P. Let's make investing easy. Recently, the U.S. stock market has been steadily rising. Stocks like NVIDIA and Apple are maintaining their high levels. However, an interesting phenomenon is happening recently. Individual stocks are showing a downward trend. The Dow Jones, for example, peaked in mid-May but has been on a downward trend for a month. Recently, regardless of the trend in the past 1-2 weeks, it is close to a consolidation trend. It seems to be stuck in a range, not being able to break out. Currently, it is at a standstill, and despite individual stocks falling sharply, the overall situation raises questions. How well is the market doing now? After a 2% drop, it has continued to rise without a single drop of more than 2%.

After a 2% decline, 330 days have passed. Throughout this period, there has not been a significant volatility in the decline even once. This is the longest period since the outbreak of the Corona shock. The stock index naturally has fluctuations where it rises and falls even when it rises. However, currently, it is just steadily rising. NVIDIA is leading the market trend vertically. NVIDIA is currently leading the market, and as NVIDIA is rising, those who are boosting the stock index are also enjoying a high-flying trend. What do you think? The stock index has been showing an upward trend for 330 days without a decline of more than 2%. There have been several instances where such a prolonged upward trend without significant declines has occurred before the outbreak of the Corona shock in global finance.

There was a time before it burst, but now the market is doing well to this extent. I would like to talk about this a bit and whether the stock market will collapse despite the current good market conditions. The evaluation record of 153 years is important. Now, there is an article on Yahoo Finance that I am showing you after translating it. I will only mention the key points of this article. There is an indicator of economic crisis signals with a history dating back to 1533. This indicator has appeared only five times in the past. What is this indicator? It means there is an economic crisis signal indicator with a history of 153 years. In the past five instances, this indicator has only appeared exactly five times, not many. In the last 150 years, it has only appeared five times, but now the sixth signal has been detected. However, when this indicator was triggered in the past five instances, what happened was things like the Great Depression and the Dot-com Bubble, significant stock market collapses.

So, in our country, it's like the IMF incident happening, the economy getting tough, stock prices plummeting, these kinds of events are indicators that predict such situations in advance. So, it's an indicator that discerns the law. What is it? It's the S&P 500 Price-to-Earnings Ratio. In our country, it's usually referred to as P/E ratio. This is the Price-to-Earnings Ratio. Simply put, if a company earns 1 million won in profit in a year, and the stock price is how much? If the stock price is formed at 20 million won, then the P/E ratio is 20. But if a company that earns 1 million won in profit in a year is typically traded at around 10 million won in value, then it is traded at a P/E ratio of around 10. You can understand it this way. In other words, the higher it is, the more the stock price is compared to the profit.

This is a gathering where you can check highly evaluated things. However, instead of simply converting it into money, there is an index that takes inflation into account. In other words, now it is more accurate to interpret it as considering the inflation rate. Simply put, it is an indicator that distinguishes the laws of the stock market from the bubble of the stock market, and the higher it is, the worse it is. If you look at the index here, you can see that the signal was caught during the Great Depression or the dot-com bubble. When this indicator exceeds 30 points, in the last five times it exceeded 30 points, a 100% economic recession or an economic crisis occurred, and stock prices plummeted significantly. This indicator implies that an economic crisis is coming now.

There are various things, and of course, these are important now. There are indicators as well. While talking about this, it tells us here what happened when the index exceeded 30 points. Before the Great Depression hit, after surpassing 30 points, the Dow Jones Index plummeted by 89% from its peak. If the stock index drops by 89%, individual stocks are hit hard. If you invested around 100 million won at its peak and then invested 100 million won, your bank account would only have 3 to 5 million won left. Also, just before the dot-com bubble burst, during that period, the Schiller P/E ratio went up to 44 points. And just before the outbreak of the corona shock, when the index crossed 30 points, there was a sudden drop of about 20%. At that time, there was no major economic crisis. Anyway, there was a stock market crash, and in the case of the corona shock at that time as well.

Before the Corona shock burst, when this index rose above 30 points, it indicated a stock market bubble. Now, in 2022, for about a year, starting from the S&P 500 to the overall stock market including the KOSPI and the cryptocurrency market, there was a drop from 80 million to 20 million KRW in Bitcoin. At that time, when this index exceeded 30 points, now and then, Schiller's P/E ratio has exceeded about six times in 153 years, and this is the sixth time. The previous five cases all resulted in the index falling. What needs to be interpreted carefully is that this index indicates that even considering the company's profits in relation to inflation, the stock prices are in a bubble. This index is correct in indicating that, but it doesn't mean the bubble will burst immediately. So, the current market seems a bit inflated.

There are indicators that objectively inform you. It seems like you should consider this to be the extent of it. Besides various other indicators, I will show you different economic indicators on the show. However, when you look at those, it is clear that the market is indeed in a bubble. You should see this as an indicator that informs you. It doesn't indicate how far the bubble will go. But where is the U.S. located? Besides the U.S., what is another representative country in North America? It's Canada, right? So, when tracking the economy of North America, it is common to check not only the U.S. but also Canada's economy. Recently, starting from the end of 2023, bankruptcies of companies in Canada are skyrocketing at an alarming rate. How rapidly are they rising? It's at the highest level since the financial crisis. Therefore, companies in Canada are suddenly collapsing in this situation.

I see that the Bank of Canada is currently cutting interest rates, but is Canada cutting interest rates now? No, except for the United States, developing countries, and even the European Central Bank have recently raised interest rates, and overall, there is a cycle of interest rate cuts. Why is that? Because the economy is starting to get really tough now. In the U.S., stock prices are soaring, and it feels like a festival right now, but except for those investing in companies like NVIDIA or in the semiconductor industry, people are not making money even though the stock market is continuously breaking record highs. Why is that? The KOSPI index is not rising much, individual stocks included in the KOSPI are not increasing much either, the economy is actually getting tougher. Therefore, now, investing in specific stocks like NVIDIA or in themes like AI semiconductors is beneficial.

Except for certain stocks, everything is currently not rising. So, if you are going to trade, and want to bet on the short-term rise, the answer is that there are only semiconductor or AI-related stocks, big tech, in this direction. I have been saying this for a very long time. There is data to support the argument I am making now. What is the data? The S&P 500 stock index is continuously breaking its all-time high, but among the stocks included there, only about 30% of them have outperformed the S&P 500. But this is at the lowest level since the dot-com bubble. What does this mean? While the stock index is rising, individual stocks included in the stock index are mostly falling. In other words, although the stock index is rising, most individual stocks are not rising.

Phenomena are happening, so if we put it the other way around, 70% of the stocks cannot beat the stock index and are on a downward trend. Therefore, unless it's a really good stock, it's either dropping now or unable to exert its strength. You can consider it as the current trend. So, if you are looking for opportunities to make money in the current market even with short-term investments, where can you find them? As I mentioned, aside from sectors like AI-related stocks and semiconductor-related stocks where the demand is clearly increasing, there is no meaning. They are either dropping or staying flat. After a month or two, either your account remains the same or it breaks. This is the only phenomenon that occurs. So, for those who want to invest in the medium to long term, what should they do? I have been talking about this for a long time, but anyway, in investments, you won't make big money now.

Shape is increasingly disappearing, so holding cash is the best solution. There is no other answer. This is being said, as it is a market with higher concentration than ever, this phenomenon is happening, and money is flowing into the technology sector, especially semiconductor and AI. Ultimately, the technology sector is becoming a bubble. When comparing technology stocks and the S&P 500 index during the dot-com bubble, the weight of technology stocks compared to the S&P 500 index was about 35%. It was around 35% during the dot-com bubble, and it has reached that level even now. It is rising vertically like crazy, showing a rally that is unbelievable. The stock prices are rising in a bubble-like manner, but during the dot-com bubble, there was an even crazier vertical rise. Up until now, this

It's not to that extent, but still, all the money in the world is flowing into the tech stock sector, almost on par with the dot-com bubble level. So, if you want to make short-term investments, there's no opportunity elsewhere but in tech stocks. Therefore, it would be good to consider that point. Currently, individual stocks are falling. As you can see from the indicators, among the stocks included in the S&P 500 index, how many of them are showing an upward trend, showing a long-term upward trend, or not. You can now check the indicators. However, currently, 65% of the stocks are showing an upward trend, and 35% of the stocks included in the S&P 500 are showing a downward trend. In other words, currently, the stock index has surpassed its all-time high.

Despite the presence of some stocks, many have transitioned to a long-term downward trend. Individual stocks are attempting to show a long-term downward trend. Right now, the part where it's trying to mark the lowest point is around 65%. If this level breaks and starts to fall, the number of stocks transitioning to a downward trend from a medium to long-term perspective will continue to increase. Therefore, opportunities for investment are decreasing in the market, leading to a situation where the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. Stocks that rise, rise like crazy, and those that fall, keep falling. We can interpret it like this. An interesting fact is that the S&P 500 index has hit an all-time high, with NVIDIA and Apple soaring, but the Dow Jones index has been showing a downward trend for over a month as of May 20th.

No, Russell, the overall stock market, such as the KOSPI, and commodities like oil, are under downward pressure. But normally, when they all rise, they rise together, and when they fall, they fall together. However, currently, they are not rising, only Nasdaq is rising. Money is flowing into selected stocks, while others are under downward pressure because the economy is not expected to improve in the future. As this outlook is gradually increasing, people are having trouble figuring out where to invest. Ultimately, a funnel effect is created. In the world, all the money is now flowing into NVIDIA, Apple, and such stocks. This is how it is seen. In the Korean stock market, money is flowing into selected stocks like SK Hynix. So, in the end, if you want to make short-term investments, there is no choice but to invest in those areas.

It's not there, so if you hold it short and invest in such a place, your account will keep decreasing anyway, so it's better to take a break with cash rather than investing ambiguously or not investing at all. For those who want to invest from a medium to long-term perspective for the next 2-3 years, make sure to build up your cash wealth. I have been saying this for a long time, continuously analyzing through various indicators. There is an indicator that the top 10 market cap stocks in the S&P 500 index should account for a certain percentage. The top 10 market cap stocks, meaning the top 10 stocks, currently account for 37.5% of the total stock index. Even during the dot-com bubble, it was 26%. What does this mean? Simply put, Nvidia, Apple, what

Big tech companies like Microsoft are dominating the market right now. Stocks like NVIDIA and Apple are leading the market, while other stocks have little power. So, apart from investing in those stocks, there isn't really a place to invest. As you may know, even if you make a 10% or 20% profit from investing, it won't change your life. To make a significant difference, you need to aim for at least a 100% profit, or even up to ten times more. We need to see substantial profits to change our lives. The opportunities for that are decreasing rapidly. Therefore, it is better to eat what the market gives us now, and those who can change their investment strategies and adapt will continue to profit.

Even though the market has already changed, there are people who continue to stick to their style. It's not easy to make money right now, so for those who like value investing, I believe that value investing is ultimately the right way to make money in the long run. However, currently, the market is really not favorable for value investing. So many people must be feeling frustrated. Therefore, I'm planning to briefly look at NVIDIA's stock price. If NVIDIA, like Apple, can withstand the big tech leaders, the market will try to hold up as much as possible. Anyway, when the stock index continues to rise, even if many individual stocks show a slight decline, they will try to maintain the stock price in a range as much as possible. But currently, many individual stocks show a decline even when these stocks go up, so there is a mismatch in supply and demand.

I would suggest that you trade only the stocks that are available for short-term trading. If NVIDIA breaks around $120, the market's upward trend could suddenly reverse. So, it would be good for you to check this aspect together. Recently, one of the online banks in Switzerland that provides cryptocurrency services has closed down and is going through bankruptcy proceedings. The bank that used to provide cryptocurrency services is now bankrupt. Although it is a bank, it offered coin services. However, it seems that their capital has been almost depleted. Therefore, since they don't have enough capital to operate as a bank, they are going bankrupt.

Bank shareholders are now able to see the trends in the US regional bank ETF prices. I mentioned the lifeline of the regional bank ETF here. But now, we are retesting that point. After a long and extended early year, we are trying to break down this box that has been forming continuously. If it breaks here, there could be conditions where bank failures could gradually come up in the media. If it breaks here and falls all the way down to this point, then financial crises like the 2008 financial crisis could occur. Because ultimately, unknown issues will eventually be reflected in stock prices. So, by looking at the movement of stock prices, we can somewhat anticipate how the market will be in the future. This is how we can start to scenario plan ahead.

I mean, now, if this point is broken through, there is a big risk of just exploding finance, that's the main point. The point is basically a lifeline for that, so if it breaks here, articles about financial crises or risks in the economy keep coming out and people's anxiety about banking crises grows. So, overall, rather than continuing with long-term investments, it's better to focus on short-term investments, swing trading, or short-term investments. That's what I keep saying. So, I've been talking about this for quite some time now. There will be an economic crisis, so for those who want to make long-term investments, they should stay liquid, and for those who want to make short-term investments, I advised to only trade in supply-demand related stocks like big tech, AI, and semiconductors. In the end, how did it turn out? In the end, DIA keeps going up.

There is no other answer. The only investment option worth short-term investment is this. Currently, Bitcoin is showing a continuous downward trend. Therefore, regardless of which stock you invest in, rushing into investments will only increase losses. Therefore, it is advisable to protect your account as much as possible, accumulate profits calmly from the beginning, and focus on the short-term investment options I mentioned earlier. For those who have a long-term perspective, it is advisable to secure the maximum cash holdings. It would be great if you could prepare for this opportunity. I will say this.

지금은 '이 종목' 투자 안하면 돈 못 법니다.

주식과 경제를 다룹니다.

문의: pibibig79@gmail.com


경제왕 김피비

미국 주식 시장은 꾸준히 상승하고 있으며, NVIDIA와 Apple과 같은 개별 주식은 높은 수준을 유지하고 있습니다.

그러나 다우존스 지수는 지난 1~2주 동안 조정 국면에 있어 우려스러운 하락 추세를 보이고 있습니다.

그럼에도 불구하고 주식 시장은 330일 동안 2% 이상 하락하지 않고 상승 추세를 보이고 있지만, 150년 만에 6번째로 S&P 500 주가수익비율 지표가 하락하면서 경제 위기 가능성에 대한 우려가 제기되고 있습니다.

30점을 초과하는 경제 지표의 중요성

역사적으로 30포인트를 초과하는 경제 지표는 100% 경기 침체나 위기, 주식 시장 급락을 예고하는 선행 지표였습니다.

153년 동안 단 6번만 발생한 이 지표는 현재 주가가 거품 상태이며 잠재적으로 시장 붕괴로 이어질 수 있음을 시사합니다.

2023년 말 이후 캐나다에서 급증하는 기업 파산은 캐나다의 경제 붕괴가 급속도로 진행되고 있음을 나타냅니다.

주식 시장의 현황과 투자 기회를 찾을 수 있는 곳

미국과 개발도상국, 유럽중앙은행이 금리를 인상하고 있음에도 불구하고 글로벌 추세는 금리 인하 사이클입니다.

S&P 500 지수가 기록을 경신하고 있지만 지수 내 종목 중 30% 정도만 초과수익을 내고 있어 힘든 장세를 보이고 있습니다.

현재 시장에서 가장 좋은 단기 투자 기회는 AI 관련주와 반도체주이며, 다른 섹터는 대부분 정체되거나 하락하고 있습니다.

닷컴 버블을 연상시키는 기술주 섹터에 자금이 집중적으로 투자되고 있습니다.

S&P 500 지수는 65%의 종목이 상승세를 보이며 사상 최고치를 기록했지만, 다우존스 지수는 하락세를 보이고 있습니다.

이러한 차이는 불확실성을 야기하고 투자 방향을 결정하기 어렵게 만들고 있습니다.

현재 S&P 500의 시가총액 상위 10개 종목이 전체 주가지수의 37.

5%를 차지하고 있어 부의 편중이 심각한 수준입니다.

현재 엔비디아나 애플과 같은 대형 기술 기업이 시장을 지배하고 있는 반면, 다른 주식은 그 영향력이 제한적입니다.

최소 100% 이상의 수익을 내는 것은 이제 어려운 일이며, 그 기회도 빠르게 줄어들고 있습니다.

현재 시장은 가치 투자에 우호적이지 않아 많은 사람이 좌절하고 있습니다.

주가지수가 계속 상승하면서 수요와 공급의 불일치가 발생하여 많은 개별 종목이 하락하고 있습니다.

단기 트레이딩에 집중하고 시장 추세에 영향을 미칠 수 있는 NVIDIA의 주가를 주시하는 것이 좋습니다.

미국 지역 은행 ETF 가격이 투자 전략에 미치는 영향

주주들은 향후 금융위기의 잠재적 지표로 미국 지역 은행 ETF 가격 추이를 면밀히 모니터링하고 있습니다.

ETF 가격이 계속 하락할 경우 은행 부실과 2008년 금융위기가 재현될 가능성이 높아지면서 은행 위기에 대한 불안감이 커지고 있습니다.

장기 투자보다는 스윙 트레이딩과 같은 단기 투자에 초점을 맞추고, 장기적인 관점에서 빅테크, AI, 반도체 등 수급 관련 종목에 투자하되 유동성을 유지하라는 조언이 나옵니다.