Hello, today let's talk about Starbucks' dividend predictions and Amazon's net profit direction. Recently, a subscriber asked me why I don't jump on stocks that are rapidly soaring, like GameStop. Well, think of what you do not as stocks, but as houses. We are currently in the buyer's position; would you want a house that costs 1 billion or 5 billion won? No, right? So, I buy good stocks or houses when they come out at a reasonable price. In fact, there are many coffee shops and cafes in the neighborhood that are doing better than Starbucks. However, there is only one global coffee brand: Starbucks. Is there any other brand that comes to mind? No, right? It is global, so it’s not a small shop. First, the size is large, which allows for cheaper procurement of beans. Second, there is the brand.

Should Starbucks advertise that it is a coffee shop? This means there is no marketing budget, and finally, its universality allows customers to enjoy it anywhere, so they pre-load their money. In other words, they bring cash in advance. Therefore, Starbucks will increase its dividends by at least 5% in the future. Let me explain the rationale. Let's apply what we learned last time. Based on a net profit of 1 million won, the dividend is 660,000 won, which means the payout ratio is 66%. This indicates that there is a lot of room for growth. It's quite substantial, right? Now, please look to the right. Moreover, Starbucks generates more cash than its earnings. Why? As I mentioned 30 seconds ago, they bring in cash in advance due to their universality. So, they give out a lot in dividends, but they also buy back shares on a massive scale. Dividends are paid four times a year, in November, February, May, and August, and in the past, the dividends increased by 10% each year.

Increased, but the outlook for net profit has declined, so even if we take a conservative approach, the minimum dividend will increase by 5%. This means that in five years, it will be 1.5 times, and in ten years, it will double. Now, if the dividend increases by 5% each year, why will it be more than double in ten years? The calculations don’t seem to add up. The reason is that all the dividends are reinvested. So, what will happen to the number of shares next year? It will increase, right? What about the dividends in two years? Exactly, the dividends will grow larger. This process repeats, which leads to growth through compound interest. I received about 3 million won in dividends from January to May this year. So, will the dividends from January to May next year be 3 million won, or will they be 4 million won? Now, it becomes clear, right? I believe you are also calmly preparing for your future.

I believe it. Next, I'll look at Amazon. Why have I never posted this before? I need to reflect on that. Amazon investment is suitable for people like me. I currently have enough cash, so I want to reinvest a bit more for the future. If you look at it, Starbucks is stable, but it has an average annual return of about 9%, while Amazon has an average annual return of 25%. So, it's definitely about investing more and getting more in return. When it comes to stock trading, learn how to specifically build your portfolio. I compared it to real estate; what would the villa position be here? The stock price is relatively cheap. Plus, the cash flow is good, so you can recover your investment quickly. That's right, like in the cases of Starbucks, Chevron, and Altria. What about redevelopment? If it goes well, the returns can be great, but there are risks involved, and your money gets tied up for a long time. Reinvestment is exactly what Amazon is about.

Tesla and Nvidia can certainly be placed here. So, when I see people who only invest in villas, I find their returns a bit disappointing, don’t you think? And when I look at those who only invest in redevelopment, the fluctuations are too large, and there are no dividends. What I’m saying is to appropriately allocate your positions. 

There’s a memo that Bezos wrote when he was conceptualizing the Amazon business, and everything is contained in it. First, if you offer products to customers at a low price, their experience improves. This leads to more customers flocking to you, and that cycle continues to drive growth. So, if you want dividends or share buybacks from Amazon, what I want to say is... well, wake up! 

Now, let’s look to the right. The reinvestment is significantly higher than cash flow. If you earn 300 but invest 500, what does that leave you with? Debt, right? So, Amazon is in a situation where it is investing more even while taking on debt.

Expecting dividends doesn't make sense. Amazon makes a lot of money, so why does it incur debt? It's a classic case of I'll take and pay it back. The phrase has a negative connotation, but did they really pay it back? While the debt has tripled, net profit has increased tenfold, meaning that the growth rate of net profit is dozens of times faster than that of the debt. How is this possible? Look at this napkin. Most people only see the customers on the right side, but they don't look at the left side. Sellers. For Amazon, customers include regular people like us, but there is one more type of customer: the sellers who sell on their platform. So, as the influx increases, in this two-sided market, profits grow twice as much. As the number of customers increases, they collect membership fees, and as the number of sellers increases, they collect advertising fees and sales commissions. This is how they make double the profits. What Amazon does is direct shipping.

The margins are almost nonexistent. However, aside from this, the rest of the business has a significantly high profit margin. Let's take a look at 2016. Direct shipping accounted for 71%, but now, in 2024, direct shipping has halved. What has taken up the rest? Advertising, sales commissions, and subscription fees—just hearing those terms makes it clear that they are quite profitable. Indeed, profits have doubled every year. So, I believe that Jeff Bezos, the former CEO of Amazon, perfectly understood the importance of traffic, or customer influx, in a two-sided business model. 

To summarize today's content: Starbucks is a globally recognized coffee brand. The greatest advantage of this business is its strong cash flow. Therefore, I am confident that dividends will continue to increase in the future. Next, regarding Amazon, the customer base is not just one person but several, right? That's correct; it's a two-sided market. Thus, net profits increase every year.

This figure has doubled and will continue to grow in the future! I will see you in the next corporate analysis video. Thank you.

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