Greetings from Artene, a dignified magazine that fills your daily life. Hello, this is Kim Hyun-seok reporting from the United States. I am Kim Hyun-seok, a stock watcher at the Korean Economic Daily. I will deliver the stock market news on Thursday, August 1st. Today, the market dropped significantly, almost reversing the gains from yesterday. As summer approaches, volatility tends to increase, especially with the upcoming presidential election. It made me think that yesterday and today showed that volatility tends to be even higher during the election period. Some are saying that Powell may have made a mistake as today's economic indicators were not favorable. There are discussions about whether the Fed's actions have caused an economic slowdown. In fact, as of the morning of the 1st, the mood in the global financial markets was fine. Yesterday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned a rate cut in September, and this had a positive impact on the market.

He made statements that raised faith, and Meta showed that AI monetization is taking place through strong second-quarter performance after the closing bell. Other companies were wondering what to do with their money investing in AI, but in the case of Meta, we showed that our advertising revenue has greatly increased through AI targeting. However, economic data announced one after another from the morning triggered investors' anxiety. Claims for unemployment benefits surged, and the manufacturing sector appeared to have cooled sharply, leading investors to realize that the negative risks regarding employment obligations discussed yesterday are now a reality. This made people recall, Ah, François yesterday wasn't just talking for no reason. Realizing this, pessimists remained quiet.

Pessimists came out and shouted that it was a mistake that the Fed did not cut interest rates yesterday, warning of an upcoming economic downturn. The recent assassination of a Hamas leader in Israel also had a negative impact on the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. NASDAQ almost completely offset yesterday's surge in semiconductor stocks, and the Russell 2000 index, which is sensitive to small and medium-sized stocks, plummeted by over 3%. First, let's look at the economic indicators that led to the economic downturn. It wasn't at 8:30 or 8:35, but at 8:30 that the economic indicators were released all at once. The first one is the initial jobless claims. Until July 27th, the number of new jobless claims was 249,000, not 250,000. In fact, it surged by 14,000 compared to the previous week, the highest since August last year. Wall Street expected 236,000 claims, but it significantly exceeded that, signaling a psychological downturn warning.

When entering a recession, it usually takes over 300,000 cases to enter a recession, but in the actual perception of people, when it exceeds 250,000 cases, they start feeling uneasy. In addition, the number of claims for distinguishing vision for two weeks in a row increased by 33,000 cases from the previous week to 1.877 million cases. This is the highest number since November 20, 2021. After that, when the Federal Reserve announced that it would raise interest rates, the market deteriorated. It was a bit overheated, and now that the economy has cooled down, it has started to move towards a downturn. There is a sky blue color here. Sky blue is the current trend, which is the trend of the past few years. A significant increase in the number of RSM Paradise cases is causing concern. The recession limit is 250,000 cases, and a slightly lower figure came out. Still, excessive reactions to volatile data within a week.

If there is a reason to worry about, it is that it has become more difficult to find sustainable jobs since 2021, with more workers receiving unemployment benefits. However, Paros, an economist at Archie Capital, pointed out that three structural factors are at play in the decrease in supply and demand. Hurricane Beryl hit hard in July, and as a result, Texas' claims remain high due to the hurricane's impact. In Michigan, car factories are laying off workers during the summer maintenance period. In addition, in Minnesota, the law was changed to allow teachers to claim unemployment benefits during the summer vacation, which is affecting the situation. This is the highest level of claims in Texas, significantly higher than in other years. The second factor is the decreased wage growth.

It is pressure. The second-quarter non-agricultural labor productivity has been announced, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.3% compared to the previous quarter. The higher the productivity, the better. In the first quarter, the figure increased by 0.4%, but this time, it significantly rose. Compared to the same period last year, it increased by 2.7%. From 2007 to 2019, before the pandemic, the average was 2.5%. Now, with a much higher figure of 2.7%, it can be seen that productivity has greatly improved. Conversely, temporarily laying off workers can also increase productivity. This increased productivity has been very helpful in suppressing unit labor costs. In the second quarter, non-agricultural unit labor costs increased by 0.9% year-on-year compared to the previous quarter. In the first quarter, it had risen by 3.8% compared to the previous quarter, but this time, it only increased by 0.9%. So, the costs have decreased accordingly.

Writing increases productivity. When productivity increases, unit labor costs only rose by 0.5% compared to the same period last year. Here, you can see that unit labor costs and productivity are inversely proportional. Wells Fargo has been growing unit labor costs trend at less than 2%, indicating easing inflationary pressures in the labor market as additional evidence. Due to the weakening labor market and reduced wage pressure, it is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates in September, thanks to improved productivity. In fact, until these indicators came out, the market was cautious. The weakened labor market and reduced wage pressure were considered factors supporting the hint given by Powell for a rate cut in September. At 9:30 a.m., major indices of the stock market started trading with a 0.2% to 0.4% increase, and during the morning, in the bond market.

The bond yield showed a significant decline of about 9 basis points from 7% to 6.99%. Then, at 10 a.m., the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released the July Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in the United States. It was quite bleak. The July Manufacturing PMI came out at 46.8, a sharp drop from 48.5 in June, hitting the lowest level since the early days of the pandemic. The market expected it to rise to 48.8%, but it decreased instead. The PMI is used to gauge the contraction and expansion of the economy, with 50 as the threshold. Currently, the economy is contracting significantly, standing at 46.8. According to ISM, the contraction has been observed for 20 out of the past 21 months. Looking back, the last time such a prolonged contraction occurred was between 1989 and 1991, followed by an economic downturn in 1991. In particular, when examining the specific factors, ...

Nothing exceeded 50, except for payment prices and deliveries. Having high payment prices is not a good thing. Inflation is slowing down the economy, and inflation is not decreasing. This is very concerning. Deliveries have also increased. What does it mean that deliveries have gone up? It means that deliveries to other places are not being made much, so deliveries have sped up. New orders have decreased by 49.3% to 47.4%, and production has decreased from 48.5 to 45.9. Especially, employment has plummeted from 49.3% to 43.4%. Employment has been too hot recently, but now it has cooled down. General Paro said this, but the employment index has dropped from 49.3 to 43.4%. So people are like, What's going on? This is really chaotic. This is how it is viewed. Among the 18 industries included in the survey, employment increased in July in seven industries.

There were only two industries. ISM respondent companies pointed out that they are continuously reducing the number of employees through layoffs, natural attrition, and employment freeze. Japanese investors were actually surprised. They are worried about what will happen if employment slows down too quickly, and such data is stimulating those concerns. When I looked at the responses of ISM respondent companies by industry, all of them were negative. If one out of five is good, then five out of five are bad. If seven are bad, then three are good. But this time, all ten sectors are slowing down, orders are not good, and everything seems to indicate that spending is not good. Only negative things like this came out. So, wow, this is really bad. Not only is manufacturing bad, but some manufacturing sectors were good. But now, everything is not.

David Rosenberg, the founder of Rosenberg Research, said that the employment index fell by 43.4%, the weakest since June 2020, not to mention that during the global financial crisis, Lehman Brothers went bankrupt and it was even lower at 45.4% in September 2008. If we talk about September 2008, the world was in a terrifying state of panic. Yes, back then it was 45.4%, and now it is better than that. He pointed out that it was a time when the recession was beginning and heading into ten months. Wes Brugge said that the manufacturing sector had not done anything for two years, but today's ISM report shows that various manufacturing activity metrics have fallen to levels not seen since the early days of the pandemic. Companies are facing higher interest rates and stricter lending standards, not to mention macroeconomic uncertainty due to the presidential election, etc.

As the scale grows, investment plans are wavering. The most worrisome thing is that this pain is coming without being accompanied by inflation. Of course, this is about manufacturing. It accounts for about 15% of the U.S. economy. The service sector is not at this level yet. Separately, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for July was announced to have dropped from 51.6% to 49.6% from the previous month. It has fallen into a contraction phase for the first time this year. New orders decreased after 3 months, and production employment growth also slowed down. Chris Williamson, an economist, pointed out that manufacturing deteriorated in July. With new orders decreasing for the first time since April, production has almost stagnated. Amid concerns about a slowdown in sales, purchases are also sluggish, and hiring is increasing under the worry that revenues will decrease. It's all not good. Construction spending was not good either. Construction spending in June was 0.3% lower than the previous month.

It decreased, and it's a consecutive decline for two months. We expected a 0.2% increase monthly. Ned Davis Research, driven by Biden's semiconductor law and industrial policies, showed an upward trend for a year, but now it is expected to lose momentum due to high interest rates. Analyzing the leading indicators, it suggests that future growth slowdown may be more severe. After the release of the NPMP, the market was engulfed in stagnation fear. It was interpreted positively. Labor costs decreased in the second quarter. This could lead to increased productivity through investments in AI, but it could also increase productivity by cutting jobs. This reinterpretation suggests it may be due to economic slowdown and job cuts. Renaissance Macro pointed out today's new jobless claims increase and decreased unit labor costs, leading to a sharp slowdown in manufacturing.

The fact that economic indicators continue to deteriorate indicates that we are approaching a point where bad economic news is coming out. Since the Fed did not lower interest rates yesterday, this is not good for the market. When the Fed starts lowering interest rates in September, they will have to see if they are falling behind. Aren't we going down now after the economic boom? We think this is a small policy mistake that can be quickly corrected. So, if you lower interest rates drastically, it's still a small policy mistake that can be prevented to some extent, right? Vital Aliji says that the sharp drop in the ISM PMI is not only the most recent signal of economic growth cooling but also a sign that the Fed should have started the easing cycle yesterday without waiting until September. The increase in new hourly wage rates is also the same. This is today's bond yield appearance, which has been kept high.

While it was expected that the new home sales would come out a bit low around 8:30, and then dropped slightly, some thought the interest rates would go down. However, after the ISM PMI was released, the market plummeted. As a result, the 2-year yield fell by 18.2 basis points to 4.1% in no time. In the bond market, after the PMI was announced, interest rates showed a steep decline. Eventually, at around 4:30 in the afternoon, the bond yield fell by 18.2 basis points to 4.14%. The 10-year yield recorded a 12.5 basis point drop to 3.97%, the first time in six months to hit the 3% level. This fear of an economic slowdown hit suddenly. It hit at 8:30, dropped again at 10, and Bespoke Investment noted that the 10-year yield dropping above 6 basis points for the sixth consecutive time is the first time since 2020.

The key support for the yield is around 3.75%, near the low point in January. In the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the betting on a 25 basis point rate cut for September decreased from 88.1% to 71.5% today. Why did it drop? It's not because they are talking about keeping the rate unchanged. The betting on a 50 basis point rate cut for September increased significantly from 11.8% to 28.5%, almost 30%. So, now people are betting that there will be a 50 basis point cut in September. They are expecting a rate cut of 50 basis points due to concerns about economic slowdown. In fact, a Japanese reporter asked if a 50 basis point rate cut is possible at yesterday's press conference. The response was that they are not considering that at the moment. However, a person in the bond market stated that it was not definitively denied. No, not at all. It's not like that. They are not thinking about it now. What will happen then?

It was about being there, and an explanation was given. Citigroup stated that Powell clearly emphasized the shift from inflation to employment rapidly and swiftly. Although they mentioned they are not currently considering a 0ppp rate cut, they added that no decision has been made yet, leaving flexibility if the labor market deteriorates more than expected. They really said they would cut interest rates six times, then said they would freeze, and now they are back up to 50. Predictions are fluctuating greatly. Today's S&P 500 index appearance is like this: it initially went up a bit, then dropped steadily after coming out at 10 o'clock. It continued to fall straight down. Even from 3 o'clock, the market could not avoid panic. Since the PMI was announced at 10 o'clock in the morning, stock prices started to decline, and by 3 o'clock in the afternoon, NASA's reasons also exceeded 3%. In the end, NASA

The SM 500 index fell by 2.3%, and the Dow Jones index closed trading down by 1.21%. Amid fears of an economic recession, the Russell 2000 index, focused on small-cap stocks, plummeted by 3.03%. In fact, small-cap stocks tend to see a cyclical buying trend when interest rates fall and the economy improves. Today, the atmosphere has changed drastically, causing everyone to dump small-cap stocks. Semiconductor stocks, which surged yesterday, also experienced a significant decline today. Renowned investor Mark Minervini predicted that yesterday's rally was a temporary fakeout to deceive investors. Many stocks dropped today, failing to sustain the rally. My model indicated a sell signal on July 17th. Corrections are common in a bull market, with a high possibility of lower short-term lows. However, in the long run, corrections within a bull market are seen as buying opportunities.

He mentioned that although not yet, the Fed is still holding interest rates, if the economy falters, how quickly Wall Street will start worrying about an economic downturn, and added that talks about a bear market will dominate the market. However, Fundstrat argues that as major indices provide stronger evidence of a bottom than the dovish Fed offers, considering that the S&P 500 index surpassed its all-time high last week, there is almost no chance of dropping below 5,400 in the near future. Today, the S&P 500 index closed at 5,416.68, so we need to see if 5,400 will hold. Nvidia, which surged yesterday, dropped by 6.67%, while Broadcom fell by 8.5%, AMD by 15.72%, Qualcomm by 8.26%, and Micron by 7.57%, hitting semiconductor stocks hard.

Today, it dropped by 7.14%. Yesterday, it rose by 7%, but today it fell by 7%. The decline in semiconductor stocks also had an impact, as Qualcomm and AMD's performance was not very bright. Qualcomm's revenue and profit exceeded Wall Street's expectations, but concerns about slow recovery in the smartphone segment led to a drop in stock prices. After missing the market estimates for the next quarter's revenue, AMD plummeted. Some are saying that it will take a long time for AMD to show its effects due to its nature. Meta rose by over 10% in the early trading session, but eventually closed at 497.76, up by 4.82% in the prevailing market sentiment. JP Morgan showed strength in the second quarter performance, emphasizing the significance of AI development and product improvement. They stated that strategic investments in AI and infrastructure are aimed at long-term growth.

Evercore has a target price of $600 at $60, showing a very strong second-quarter performance with significant growth in advertising revenue and considerable margin expansion. Meta stated that they are effectively utilizing AI to enhance consumer and advertiser experiences. Goldman Sachs recommends buying at a target price of $555, explaining that positive momentum across various product initiatives, such as the release of new platforms, is particularly encouraging. It seems certain that the labor market is slowing down, but as Powell mentioned, the key is whether this is a normalization or a rapid cooling to the point of causing an economic downturn. The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank estimated a 2.5% GDP growth rate for the third quarter today, taking into account ISM PMI and others, reflecting the overall US economy due to the manufacturing sector.

No, it's not. Although it has decreased by 2.8%, it is still a healthy growth rate. Goldman Sachs also estimates 2.5%. In that respect, the July employment report to be released tomorrow morning has become more important. The Wall Street consensus expects non-farm payrolls to decrease from 206,000 in June to around 170,000 in July. 170,000 is acceptable. So far, the actual figures have been higher than expected, but now there is concern that it may decrease significantly below expectations. Charles Nathan Peterson, a derivative director at Charles Schwab, believes that in an environment where bad news was treated as good news, bad news is now turning into bad news. If the employment report is weak tomorrow, it may not be well received in the market. In a situation where interest rate cuts are already solidified, if this is not good news, it could lead to an economic downturn. These are the concerns. The unemployment rate is

The market is forecasting 4.1% growth. Ned Davis Research is reporting mixed data on layoffs, but overall employment indicators such as ADP private employment, ISM employment, and JOLTS all point to a sluggish labor market. We expect job creation to be noticeably weak in the July employment report to be released tomorrow. It is estimated that non-farm payroll will increase by 95,000. Of course, 95,000 is also okay. When it's around 100,000, it's not a recession. In the past during a recession, it went into negative territory, not like increasing. So, if it increases by 95,000, it's not overheating. However, there may be conflicting interpretations due to immigration. With a significant influx of immigrants, adding 100,000 jobs is currently a rare prediction. Some predict around 150,000 to 190,000 jobs.

Goldman Sachs estimates slightly fewer than 165,000 below the consensus of 177,000 on average for three months. It is a slightly lower figure. Goldman Sachs expects private employment to have increased from 125,000 to 148,000 in the consensus. In the summer, seasonal employment growth is expected, such as temporary increases in employment like lifeguards, hotel staff, and vacations. When the labor market is tight, it is not the case. The employment indicators we see show a slower pace of job creation compared to recent trends. Goldman Sachs has conducted surveys and created various indices related to employment. According to my observation, the pace of job creation has definitely slowed down compared to recent trends. Additionally, it is assumed that Hurricane Merrill will result in a further reduction of 15,000 jobs. The unemployment rate is estimated to remain unchanged at 4.1%.

There are risks on both sides in such predictions. Although the trend is slow but persistent, there may be additional upward pressure on the unemployment rate exceeding the trend. According to a survey, if the number of employed people catches up with new hires, the unemployment rate could also drop. Bank of America is reporting higher figures than the consensus. The Bank of America expects non-farm employment to increase from 206,000 in June to 225,000 in July, anticipating a further increase from June. Private employment is expected to increase by 180,000, and the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%. Factors such as immigration continue to have an impact. Hurricane Beryl, which hit the southern United States, including Texas, last month, poses a downward risk to our predictions. It is possible that we may be wrong now, as we have set it up. And the closing of the market with Apple.

Amazon's performance has been released. Apple, well, it was all good. Expected earnings per share were $1.4, but it was $1.34. Revenue was expected to be between $85.7 billion and $85.8 billion, but it was $83.8 billion, so much better. Yes, Micron's iPhone sales were also good. Expected $39.3 billion, but $38.95 billion. However, sales in China fell slightly short of expectations. iPhone sales actually met expectations, but they decreased by 1% compared to the same period last year. The stock price initially dropped slightly in after-hours trading due to the earnings announcement, then rose and fell, and now it's pretty stable. Amazon's EPS was expected to be $1.26, but it was $1.03, which is great. This is mainly due to budget cuts, meaning they are cutting costs significantly. Revenue was expected to be $17.98 billion, but it was $14.854 billion, slightly below expectations. Brian Olsavsky, SK CFO.

In the North American region, it was stated that the revenue growth was slightly lower than the internal estimates. Consumers were pointed out to be choosing cheaper products, leading to a decrease in the average selling price. For example, someone who used to buy a bicycle for $500 is now buying it for $400 or $300. Why is that happening? The slowdown in the economy and the current somewhat subdued atmosphere are the reasons. Indeed, in almost all sectors, it is also pointed out that it is due to competition with Chinese e-commerce companies like Alibaba and Tencent. Amazon Web Services, a cloud business, saw a 19% increase in revenue, which is in line with or slightly better than expectations. Amazon's stock is currently down by about 4% in after-hours trading. Some are now thinking that this is not good for retail. So far, out of the seven Magnificent 7 companies, all except Tesla have exceeded Wall Street's earnings expectations.

In the fundamental earnings season of Interior, a company that has risen by 58% in terms of market capitalization out of 315 companies disclosed its performance until yesterday. Their revenue increased by 4.8% compared to the same period last year, and the profit increased by 12.9%. This exceeds Wall Street estimates by 1% and 4.4% points, respectively. Given this trend, it is estimated that in the second quarter earnings season, revenue will increase by 5.2% and profit by 10.7%. Especially, although revenue growth is somewhat weak, the margin is remarkable. In the second quarter, the margin for S&P 500 companies is 11.1%, and for South Korea, it is around 5%. It is estimated to be 12.1%. Of course, this is because the U.S. market is vast and broad, resulting in high margins. Also, adjustments are made; most of the bad things are excluded, and adjusted net profit is announced, which contributes to the good margin. In any case, compared to the same period last year, it is higher than 11.6%, and the 5-year average profit margin is 11.5%.

FactSet expects that the second quarter will be the second quarter in history where more than 12% margin is reported by S&P 500 companies. This was the first time it exceeded 12% in the second quarter of 2022. This is significant because monthly revenue doesn't increase significantly, but the increase in margin indicates substantial cost savings and expense reductions. UBS's second-quarter earnings report evaluates that overall, performance was positive in all aspects. Among the companies that have released their results so far, approximately 60% exceeded revenue estimates and 75% exceeded profit estimates, which aligns with historical averages. UBS expects profits in the technology sector to grow by 20 to 25%. Looking at the performance of companies like Microsoft and AMD, it was explained that investments in AI are continuing. Therefore, the rotation of small-cap stocks that occurred due to the high valuation of tech stocks is disappearing.

It was predicted that there is a high possibility, and the focus will return to fundamentals. The recovery in economic growth, inflation decline, stable interest rates, and robust AI investment spending are expected to push the S&P 500 index up to 5,900 by the end of the year. It was argued that the overall bullish market will continue, with some corrections possibly in the summer. However, historically, summer is not favorable, especially when overlapping with the presidential election, which increases volatility. This year, with no current president and uncertainty, the market is fluctuating. Also, with ongoing tensions like the recent conflict in Israel, the current sentiment is not positive. Nevertheless, it is anticipated that the bullish market trend will persist.

I still have faith in landing probabilities. The probability of landing is a bit shaky today, but it's not at all like an economic downturn. I will take your questions. Hello, followers of the U.S. stock market. Welcome, Sangyong, Legend, Jongwoo, Love in Peace, Michael Berry, Edam, Day, Rainmaker, Michael, guest number 4, Justin Kwon, Jungban, Red Fox, Junri, Gungtang, also known as Pu, Nexus, Byungchul, Wall Street Fox, Sundae Soup. Nice to meet you all. Our PD Natsuhyun asked for questions, so we will start taking questions. Natsuji reporter, are you here from Korea, Natsuji? Welcome. Do you have any questions? Oh, Shopping How, about the economic downturn, is it significant?

Can the S&P 500 index drop by more than 15% without an event? No, that doesn't happen. It just drops without a 15% drop. There may be some stagnation or without a significant downturn, drops of over 10% can occur. However, events need to happen for this to occur. Such geopolitical risks increase suddenly, like when Trump announced a 60% tariff increase. But just steadily dropping without any specific reason doesn't really happen. Events like 9/11 have occurred, but even without them, a 5% drop can happen. Also, drops of over 10% can occur about once a year due to certain events. It's a temporary phenomenon, but when there is an economic downturn, the market usually drops around 20% or even 30%.

There's a story about a song, Hotel Cyanide. They say they removed cyanide bombs and achieved peace, but oil prices went up yesterday, and today it seems to be stabilizing. For example, Iran is showing up now, and the Israeli president seems to have turned to Trump. He visited Washington last week, and now he seems to be leaning towards the Democrats. He's saying it doesn't seem like he's with the Democrats and if the war ends now, it would be advantageous for the Democrats. So, they decided not to end the war, just eliminate the ceasefire negotiations, and let's keep fighting. This way, if they keep fighting, I can continue as the prime minister, become like Trump, and then cooperate with Trump. It seems like they're going in that direction. Currently, it's a real problem. For example, the lives of Israeli people, this is not good. Can they really kill all Hamas Palestinians now?

I don't think we can kill them all. Yes, that's impossible, but it seems like they are pushing for it now. Oh, the oil price went up yesterday, why isn't it going up today? It's because of the risk in the Middle East. It was rising due to that, but now fears of an economic downturn are hurting it. Oh, isn't the U.S. also heading towards a downturn? China is not doing well either. If the U.S. is not doing well, what will happen? Yes, oil prices can only plummet. So, it's not showing stability. Today, it was pushed back by concerns of an economic downturn. Yes, until now, Iran might attack or something like that. They might attack, but we don't know the extent of the attack. It may escalate into a full-scale war, which is uncertain. There is a possibility, but that's why fears of an economic downturn have pushed it down. Mr. Crockett, could the recent unemployment rate be influenced by the seasonal effects of summer vacations?

I mentioned this before, but when you look at places like Texas, Minnesota, and Michigan, they have really gone up a lot. The impact of such significant increases may indeed have an effect, but people are generally getting a bit nervous because the overall job market and labor market are slowing down. It's true that the job market is slowing down, but the concern is not that it's slowing down rapidly, but that it's not slowing down rapidly. So far, it has been understood to slow down gradually. That's why when temporary factors come up, causing concern that it's not slowing down rapidly, the market falls today. If people were convinced that it was heading into a recession, it would have dropped by 3% today, or it could have dropped even more. If it were certain that it was heading into a recession, it would have dropped further. It's not definite yet; people are just being cautious.

The delayed landing is still in the basic scenario, so I showed you that Goldman Sachs is still estimating 2.5% for the third quarter. Crockett, Mr. Yoonjunmu, are you still looking at TLT from a trading perspective? I still need to ask about this. I haven't asked yet. Yes, since I will be interviewing on August 5th, I will ask then. If there are concerns about stagnation, it will be difficult for interest rates to rise further. In my opinion, due to the Trump trade, interest rates were rising but now seem to be reversing. For example, Trump's election probability has slightly decreased. Currently, Harris is leading in the polls, according to surveys conducted on Fox TV and similar platforms, showing fluctuating results. So, due to this back and forth, long-term interest rates have been rising somewhat because of Trump.

There is no anger anymore, so now it seems like concerns about the economy and interest rate cuts are being reflected. It appears that factors like inflation slowdown and economic slowdown are pulling down the 10-year bond yields. Jun Park, Amazon's performance seems good, but it's dropping too much in the market. Could it be because the entire market is dropping together? As I mentioned earlier about Amazon, the revenue growth has slowed down a bit. Amazon tends to give conservative guidance. Yes, that's true, but the revenue didn't come out as expected, fortunately, growth is still maintained within the Amazon Web Services cloud, and the revenue came out as expected. However, in retail sales and e-commerce, the revenue is a bit sluggish at the moment, less than expected. So, this is not a big concern, right? Or

The game, even that, could have clearly affected consumption, and I think people are a bit puzzled about such things. I haven't had a chance to look at this article in detail because I'm summarizing it, but anyway, sales in e-commerce were a bit weak. Sunny, when will Netanyahu go to hell? There are many people who will go with him, right? Yes, some won't go. Putin also, what, out of the top 10 leaders in the world, about 10 should go, but some won't go. Rkw, has the trend of the Russell 2000 index changed? When concerns about an economic downturn arise, small-cap stocks have no choice. Yes, as I mentioned before, small-cap stocks are believed to thrive when the economy recovers. Yes, but if the economy is heading towards a downturn, the first thing to throw out is small-cap stocks. Small-cap stocks are.

It's hard to make money in a sluggish economy. I'll take one last question. Is Mayor Park's reaction oversensitive or is it Powell's loose response? It could be the mayor's oversensitive reaction, or it could be something else. Well, who knows? Only time will tell. Maybe after about 6 months, we'll look back and say, Oh, that was not an oversensitive reaction back then. If 6 months have passed and the economy is still struggling, then we might think that was an oversensitive reaction. This is about considering what is considered an oversensitive reaction. If the economy is in a downturn or not yet in a downturn, that's what we need to consider. If a downturn happens, then it's not an oversensitive reaction, it's an appropriate response. Yes, in a way, you can't see it that way. Anyway, if you listen to Mayor Park's remarks from yesterday...

Paul Jang accurately stated that the game was not delayed or rerouted. Therefore, Paul Jang postponed the rate hike to September. Up to now, there are concerns in some markets about that. It's not the case for everyone. Overall, there is trust in Paul Jang and the U.S. economy holding up until September. However, about 30% of people now think differently. Today, an economic indicator has come out that supports that 30%. Wishing you all successful investments. Show Me the Money.

[김현석의 월스트리트나우] 침체 공포→3% 금리…파월 이미 실수했다? "50bp 내릴 것" ↑

한경 특파원들이 전하는 잠들지 않는 투자 뉴스

[김현석의 월스트리트나우] 침체 공포→3% 금리…파월 이미 실수했다? "50bp 내릴 것" ↑

[김현석의 월스트리트나우] 침체 공포→3% 금리…파월 이미 실수했다? "50bp 내릴 것" ↑

스크립트