hello H. So, I really wasn't planning on doing another video on Solar Edge, but since I got two comments which are super exciting, really thank you, please continue commenting and writing me. Uh, I decided I will, why not, um, just do. I really want to make it quick, a little update H, but more. It's going to be, you'll see why in a minute, just adding a few more insights and a few more thoughts about Solar. Um, and um, and eventually, I want to do like another try to just see like the possible valuations, the fair values, and the, I don't know, like a price target, uh, for Solar Edge, uh, which, uh, spoiler alert, my main point would be that it's really hard and the range is really wide. Uh, so yeah, but anyway, uh, I didn't really do another deep dive. I didn't really read all the reports and listen to all the transcripts. I really skimmed through, so it's going to be a little bit superficial, and that's why I want to make it quick also. Um, so overall, the

main point is nothing really changed much. The status is pretty much still the same, where demand is really low at this point, and the inventories are really high. With Solar Edge, with these distributors, it's trying to get rid of all this inventory, and it's going to take still a long time. It's going to take probably at least a few quarters more until things start to stabilize in terms of demand and the inventories. So, all this is pretty much the same right now. It's having really a lot of cost. It's gotten even to negative gross profit margins. It's burning cash because it has all this operating company and practically no sales at this point. But we knew that that's what there is at this point. So, but I'm going to talk about the situation, and so pretty much everything I said still holds up. So, what I do want to do is more like to reiterate my conclusions from my previous video and make them maybe more

to the point and more definite. I think that overall, my conclusions from my last video were that Solar Edge is a super risky, pretty much speculative play because it operates in a really highly competitive environment with an industry that is super young, that is developing, that might go through a few revolutions in the next few years where technology is constantly changing, and where there are so many players where we don't know which ones will emerge as the winners at the end. Most of them won't, and the industry will go through probably some consolidation and some commoditization where the premium products are becoming just generic, and everybody's offering pretty much the same. I think that's the huge risk. I still think so; nothing has changed in that department for me. So when I try to think whether Solar could be a good investment from this point on, look at a few years ahead, I think the visibility is really poor in terms of how long it will take Solar Edge to get out of this rut.

or even to just stabilize in terms of revenues and profitability and get out of hopefully get out of losses and to stabilize some form of cash flow inflow. And so it could take a long while. It really depends on how it will be, how much will it be successful on restructuring its costs. And we don't know, and it's still super, super dependent on the interest rates, which we don't know where we're going to, where are going to go. Everybody is expecting interest rates to go down, but if inflation continues, and there are good reasons for it to continue, interest rates will not go down for the foreseeable future, so at least a few years. So it will affect tremendously solar and the electricity prices and the regulatory environments in Europe and the United States and the residential on the commercial. It all affects solar. Ed. So we have no idea where all those things are going to go in the next few years, and therefore it's really hard to even estimate even

roughly H where the revenues of solar could be and even more difficult where its profits might be or losses. So, the next few years are super, super, super unknown, and it might take it, uh, it's not necessarily going to take just a few quarters, it might take years because it's so dependent on the macro environment also, which we don't know. We might be heading into a recession right now, um, and um, and even if not, it's the whole situation where the demand suddenly pretty much stopped. I mean, so such an abrupt slowdown in demand, it's so just goes to show how unpredictable it is, and we don't know where it's going to go in the next few years, uh, so yeah, we really don't know, um, but my whole point is that even if we're patient investors and we wait until we get out of this down cycle, which is pretty much a cycle, the whole point is I don't know for me where Solar Edge will be at the end of it in terms of its position in the market and its

the uniqueness of its offering of Technology H and its ability to maintain its market share um and also on the financial side of things even if it does maintain a nice share uh of the market um what could be its profitability profile where uh prices are going down and margins are going to get thinner uh no doubt about it um and there's so there's so much competition and new products are entering so they're going to have to adjust their prices on based on all kind of factors and and everything that is going on right now when they're taking more debt H they might dilute sh shareholders they might um so so even if revenues do stabilize even if they don't necessarily get to previous levels even if they do stabilize on some kind of a good enough level in a few in like two three years four years um where would be the profits I don't know H and if and if I look even seven 10 years um ahead it's even more unknown in exactly in those terms of the

market share um and how will the industry even look in 10 years from now. It will probably again go through a few revolutions, so uh, I don't know. It's just super, super risky. It's I find it very speculative, so that's my conclusion, and that's the big picture, which really hasn't changed, and it's probably, it probably will not change. Uh, so yeah, that's my overall thoughts on Solage that are still are um. So having said that, that's the the big thing that still is the big the big thing H. I do want to add some updates or maybe some just just a few more insights to add uh to my previous video, and just a few things that did happen H in the meanwhile, but I really want to go over it quick because I already said the big important thing I I think, so just really just a few more thoughts um. So the first thing H to watch right now and the the biggest concern with solar are the price reduction, so it really relates to what I was just saying.

uh, but we already see that happening. Obviously, it's going to happen when they have so much a buildup in inventory, but also the competition. We knew the price cuts were going to come. We always knew that, um, and it's happening right now already. Now they're reporting it. The average selling price is down. H. They're doing all those discounts, of course, to get rid of the inventory, but not only. I don't think that's the only thing that, uh, um. It's a combination, of course. Um, so I think that's one of the major things that are going to affect near-term, midterm, and long-term Solar Edge, wherever the revenue level will be. If they reduce prices, and they have to, and there is so much competition, that their profitability is really going to suffer. And it's not that they're lowering the prices and, uh, just in a couple of years, they will be able to raise them again to the previous levels. It's not going to happen. It's pretty much irreversible because of the high

competition in the market. I mean, they can adjust prices, you know, inflationary and stuff like that, but um, overall, the price level, levels are going down, and uh, it's going to, we don't know where the margins are going to be. I mean, that's huge, the huge, so that's just to stress it, and that it is already going on in the last few quarters. And okay, the second thought is regarding it, cash flow and the balance sheet. So obviously, everything that is going on right now will affect solar's balance sheet. I mean, we'll see just how much. So right now, solar is burning through cash at the, like the trailing 12 months cash burn rate is around 400,000 H. They're, I hope it's going to get a little bit better because now they're restructuring their cost, they're doing massive layoffs, um, and of obviously, they need to adjust everything, they're manufacturing everything, H. So I hope they will begin to burn less cash, but for now, it's just growing. So they are burning cash at this point, and

they have their debt. Their convertible notes are due next year in 2025, and it's $600,000. So, they are already preparing themselves for that, and right now, they're taking on more debt. So, they offered the more notes at $310,000. I think that's just the beginning. They're probably going to need to raise more capital, but we'll see. And of course, I don't know how plausible it is right now, but they might also maybe issue more shares. I mean, it's not going to bring them too much with the current share price, but they might. If they're desperate, they will dilute shareholders. They need cash. So, there will probably take more debt. There will be a higher interest rate, and their current debt is at 0% interest rate. So, the current interest rates on the current $600 notes are effective zero. I mean, like half a percent. But now, it's not going to be the same for that.

They're going to take from now on H, so they will have elevated interest rate payments, and they will have more debt on their balance sheet. They might dilute shareholders, so this is not good. Nothing good is going to come out of it in terms of the financial resilience of the company. And is the cash situation? They're also having a crisis right now because they burned through so much cash in the last quarters. Right now, they have only 600,000. They're raising 300,000 additional, or they're going to have around 900,000, but they're probably going to restructure already H. They're saying that they will restructure already the notes that are due next year, so we'll see. But the cash situation is concerning. And now I just want to remind ourselves that they did share buybacks just a few quarters ago H with much-needed right now cash, which is pretty much disappointing at this point.

because were they not realizing where they're heading with their in terms of the cash flow how what what what was going on. I don't I I remember I talked about it in my uh previous videos where the gave this picture where the they're going to have um decreased revenues but they're going to have still elevated cash flows because of all the cash that is coming in from previous orders but that's not the case anymore and it was obvious it's going to last for a quite a while. So I think the share BuyBacks was pretty much a little bit Reckless. So that's my that's just insight number two and insight number three is regarding the commercial. It seems like like the commercial segment of solar is taking a a higher and higher proportion of its H business. So I think one of the things to watch is where uh things are going when the wind is blowing in that department um what what was disappointing that I was kind of looking at it right now and they don't report it separately. I mean

they're in their earnings call. They always just throw these numbers: commercial grew this and that, but you cannot really make sense of it and form a reliable picture about it, which is okay. It's there; they have the right to do that, but we don't know really what's going. We know that in terms of megawatts, the commercial segment is taking now around 60% of all solar reg's Mega shipments, but we don't know how that translates to revenues. And I think, no, I know the margins in the commercial segment are lower, so in terms of profits also. So, but still, in terms of where the demand is going and what's going on in the regulatory environment, I think the commercial segment is the one to watch because it seems like it's a huge growth driver for Solar Edge, where, you know, in the United States, Solar Edge already has, like, together with N-phase, almost 90% of the market, but the commercial is really super more of a young and more growing.

market so um so yeah uh thought number four the whole changes that solar Edge is now H forced to make in its cost structure is going to affect tremendously its offering and its uh relationship with its customers whether it's the Distributors and its reputation in the long term they just announced another H wave of layoff so uh it's obviously going to affect its ability H to I mean I hope they will be still a able to offer good product that people would want but uh it's going to hurt hurt the R&D for sure and it's for sure going to hurt its customer service I mean I already was hearing even before uh some negative feedback about uh solar's customer service but um now it's I think it's going to it's obviously they're going to have much more less uh uh smaller head count and uh less representatives and uh the whole company probably people are from what I know I have a friend that works there uh everybody is looking for a new job and

uh, you know, when you work in a company that is just exploding, you just want to jump ship as quick as you can, and it's going to, I think for sure, affect also the performance of Sol's products and the customer satisfaction with both the big commercial customers and the distributors, maybe U, and of course the, uh, like, uh, and the residential customer also, so yeah, um, and, uh, Insight number five is just how much I already talked about it, but just how much solar H solar's performance and the future near term and long term, but more like near term, depends on, uh, uh, the interest rates and the electricity prices and, and all the regulatory, uh, legislation that is going on, um, of course, we know that there's nothing new here, but just to add that, that also is a huge, that's so just increases the risk because those are things that nor the company nor we can control nor predict, and we don't know, so just to stress again H that also adds to the risk of this investment, um, so yeah.

So what I want to do right now is just together to brainstorm and just to see if right now the price is in the 20s. So maybe from this price, you know, everything has a price, and uh, maybe in this price, it's really just a good risk-reward profile, and uh, and there is much more upside than downside, or is it not? Let's see, right? So what I want to do right now is uh, to I'm not even going to use my usual spreadsheets H where I take I just take more parameters and try to forecast like to more precise level and uh, to think of different scenarios. I I want to make it really really rough be because it is rough in this situation and not that my method was working anyway um, but just just to the brainstorm um, so what I did just really the most simple like uh uh napkin type of U uh of thinking of the calculation and um, so if we look at the solar's revenue in the last few years, we see of course it was going

growing really nicely, and it has already gotten to the 3 billion mark. And now, of course, it's declining, and it's probably going to decline even more. So, we can try to assume, just try a different new revenue levels. Will it stabilize in the next few years, and maybe try to think of different scenarios of what profitability in terms of margins could be, and then try to see what could be the price target, and I don't know, one, two, probably more like two, three years range. So, let's just go with it and play with it and see. I'm doing it right now on almost for the first time also. So, I think they were saying that they're expecting, but it was long ago, and I'm sure everything has changed, but let's just start with that, with around the 2 billion 400. I think let's just try with that. Let's say that would be the new level of revenues for Solar Edge, and again, we'll play with

that and see what that would bring us um and when we look at the margins um again very complex because it was changing so much and the company was uh operating in the so many different environments when it didn't have enough product and it was the prices were high but also the manufacturing was high H and the shipments were high so um and it didn't really tap into all its potential also um and then now they have the price reductions and now of course even the gross profit uh margins are um negative so we'll see we we saw that at some point where it didn't really had the economy of scale yet but the prices were high and it had all kind of elevated costs um we saw let's go with the 13 okay but obviously um I for me it's really obvious that the margins will only go down from this level because of the price competition because of the prices H that will go down so let's again start and then we'll play with it with like I think saying 10% in two three

years is super optimistic. I'm not going to go with that. Let's go with 7%, okay? And we'll change that and see. Yeah, okay. Which brings us to the next income of, I deleted that, of about um 168,000. And H, its current shares outstanding is 57 million. I happen to remember that. And but it might dilute more, so let's just say that it will not do further probably share buybacks anyway. It was not that significant H, but uh let's just say for a second it will not uh issue more shares um. So that brings us the to the um uh earnings per share uh of almost $3. And now uh let's say uh that right that at this level the company is this gross really has slowed down. And from this uh level H, it will probably manage to grow let's say. Okay, around maybe 7%, 8%, 10%. Maybe it will not grow at all. Maybe it will grow like 3%. Maybe it will still continue to decline. But we H, it's

not going. It's anyway. It's not going to get back probably to the high valuations where the market was super optimistic and the growth was really stellar. Um, so in terms of the valuation, let's again, we'll play with that. Uh, but uh, let's begin from like, I don't know, 13 PE. Okay. And again, we're going to play with all those parameters and see just what the price uh, range uh, could be. Um, so that brings us to like a price target of $38, which is a nice upside from here. But what if the uh, what if the margins uh, are much lower? What, what if it's only 5%? That's already $27. What if the revenues are not going to be $240? What if they're going to be $180 billion? H. That's going to bring that brings us to a $20 price target. Um, what if they issue more shares? Um, what, what if the market is so pessimistic for so long that the, that the PE is going to be even, I don't know.

nine okay that's going. That brings us to a $13 price target. And it's not really a target; it's just a scenario, okay? Um, okay, but what about an optimistic scenario? What if it manages to recover its revenues, and you know the commercial segment is growing, and the residential segment is also growing, and the interest rates will be reduced, and the electricity bills will be higher, so people would want to switch to solar more? Um, and the, I don't know, the ESG policies of Europe kicking gear again, and all that, and all that, and they're going to show nice growth again, and they're going to have this new level of revenues. And where I want to just, uh, also stress how much the condition of the company also affects the margins, because whenever, like, we see now that, of course, it's also a period of readjustments, but um, when the revenues go down, and when everything is uh, gloom and doom, the margins really suffer. But when everything is great and stellar, as we have seen uh, three years ago, the

margins are really high, so it's like the perfect storm where, uh, where it's like almost exponential when everything affects one another, and then the PE is higher also. So when everything is good, it's going to be super high, but when everything is bad, it's going to be super low. So again, the range and the um, the amount of uncertainty um, and then if they do H manage to get to higher um, revenues. I hope they will be manage to finally kick into gear some economy of scale, and uh, I don't know. I have really nothing more, nothing really good to say about in terms of like Tailwinds for the margin, because also the commercial has lower margins. I don't know, but let's go with I don't know, 10%. Okay, let's give it a why not, okay? And let's say it will not dilute more shares, it will not buy shares um, and then if it shows again a nice growth. I don't know, it's going back to I don't know, 15% growth, and then the

market. Uh, the market really has burned, was burned by this one. I think it's going to take a while until valuations are high and optimistic again. Um, but if it shows nice growth and um, uh, and the earnings are expected to be really nice in the next few years, it will, it might, um, it might show a trailing PE, uh, of a higher rate. So let's say, I don't know, 20. Okay, PE of 20. Then it gets us to 87% um, price share. H. So I want to say that's the most optimistic I can get. I don't have any case to get that even higher than that. Of course, I can say like in seven years if it begins to grow and we're not there, isn't a recession and um, everything is going back to growth again and everything is perfect and the market is expanding, the market is new and growing and then hot and everything and it's going to get, I don't know, 2-4 billion dollars of revenues. Okay, let's do five.

billion in seven years. Okay, and it maintains its margin of 10%. And it might do some, uh, let's go with the 57. It, you know, they have the stock-based compensation, everything, but they might do share buybacks once in a while. Let's go with, I don't know, 60. Okay, um, then the EPS in seven years might be super rough, super like garbage valuation, really. Um, uh, the EPS might be 8 dollars, and I'm not going to give a PE of 20, but let's say PE of 16, or I don't know, 15. Then it might get to, um, uh, to $133 of a share price, maybe to 166, and but maybe to 1, uh, 108. So, that's the range. Okay, and I don't want to finish on that point. That's just, that's in seven years. Let's go again with the probable. Let's say it's going to be like, like to, uh, 27, and a profit margin of, I don't know, seven. I think that's fair, or

honestly, let's just assume it's not going to issue more shares. I think 13 is fair. Let's go with 14, okay? It's fair. So maybe that's the price target. I don't know, but the point is that we shouldn't take this range and take the middle of it and say that's the price target. So that might be the middle of the range, okay? But no, that's on the higher end. I think my whole point is how wide this range is, which makes it really too difficult to value. I cannot say that the risk profile here is favorable because we saw it could go to $12 also. So, and for a while, it's not just a momentarily like I hold Canada Goose. I know that for Canada Goose also, but I think that it will do better in a few years. I cannot say that for solar, and that's my whole point throughout this video and the previous one. So yeah, so those are my

conclusions. I hope that was helpful. I hope it was not too long. Um, so yeah, I'll see you in the next one where I continue on my thoughts or I do a little strategy shift. So, bye-bye.

SolarEdge (SEDG) Stock Update and Opinion

SolarEdge (SEDG) Stock Update and Opinion