시반예-스틸워터: 자동차 금속 산업의 투자 위험

### 시반예-스틸워터: 자동차 산업에 대한 투자의 위험과 보상 평가하기
* 📉 현재 주식의 주가수익비율은 **4.23**이지만 이는 미래가 아닌 지난 12개월을 반영한 수치입니다.
* 💰 시가총액 **30억 달러의 시반예스틸워터(SI)**는 PGM 금속과 금을 생산하며, 현재 **리튬, 아연 및 기타 상품으로 사업을 확장**하고 있습니다.
* ⛏ 비용 곡선과 현재 가격으로 인해 **남아공의 채굴자 중 절반 이상이 이러한 금속을 채굴하는 것은 수익성이 없습니다.**
* 📉 채굴에 대한 투자는 성장을 위해서가 아니라 **생산을 안정적으로 유지하기 위해 필요**하며, SI는 **높은 수준의 투자**를 하고 있습니다.
* 🚗 SI는 자동차 촉매제 회사로, **팔라듐, 백금, 로듐의 향후 자동차 촉매제 사용 여부가 불확실한 상황**입니다.
* 💸 조정된 잉여현금흐름은 **높은 투자로 인해 상당히 마이너스**이며, 이러한 투자가 예상 수익성으로 이어지지 않으면 손해를 보는 것입니다.
* 🌐 자동차 산업은 전기차로 전환하고 있으며, 금속에 대한 수요가 변화하면 **SI의 수익성에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.**
* 📈 "저는 순풍을 타고 투자하는 것을 선호합니다. 단기 사이클에서 잘못된 타이밍에 매수하는 등의 실수를 하더라도 조만간 **강한 순풍, 즉 구조적 순풍**에 의해 구출될 수 있기 때문입니다. 지금은 **역풍이 불고 있습니다.**"

시바니-스틸워터의 자동차 금속에 대한 고위험 투자는 변화하는 시장 수요와 높은 생산 비용으로 인해 불확실성에 직면해 있습니다.

good day fellow investors. I've made a deep dive into Sibanye-Stillwater, which is a very requested stock or has been over the last year. So smash that like button if you enjoy this. We will discuss the stock, the business cycle, the financials, and what are the key factors related to the risk and reward of investing in SI. Now let's immediately start with the stock. If you look at the P ratio now, it is 4.23. But always keep in mind the P ratio reflects what happened last 12 months, not what will happen the next 12 months. The stock price is reflecting there. The dividend is still looking good. The market cap is three billion. And now we have to see whether there is more value than that going forward or not. SI produces PGM Metals, gold, now going into lithium, zinc, and etc. And thus it is a producer of Commodities and it depends on the supply and demand for those Commodities. If we look at the business well, it is Diversified, mostly producing in South Africa. Now something battery

Metals in Argentina us some other things, and um we look at production. We see good production of gold. DD gold, I think, was the first goal there. PGMs okay, also producing in the US recycling nickel, and there should be more battery Metals coming online as they have invested a lot in these green Energy Solutions going away or better diversifying for on padium Platinum and rodium. That is the base of what they do alongside, of course, with the gold and their production there. So when I'm thinking why are they going into all these battery metals, well, they are diversifying and investing because perhaps they also know that the end is near for these Metals. More about that in a second. If we look at the cost curve, you can see that there are cheaper producers and there are more expensive producers cash costs and then also including capex and the prices now are a little bit lower than that. This is in South African rents, and the spot basket price is 23,000, and you can see that the

23,000 are somewhere here, so it's not really profitable to mine these metals for more than half of their the miners there, which means it's an ugly situation. Very few people will make money. This is for SI. They have a little bit of production also above the cost. They need to optimize or E thatb and then readjust the supply and demand in the sector as the biggest players there. And then something important to know about mining, that those are finite operations, and you need to invest a lot of money. If not, your production will simply go down like this in 10 to 12 years. Companies need a lot of money to keep production as high as possible, and then they will need to reinvest, buy new projects to keep things steady as that is. And you can see here the extreme high level of investments, and this is a typical chart. Don't think that the investments will be lower in 2026. The investments will again look like this, and then again look like this, because this is what they plan now, but then

there will be more, and there is always this 1 billion a year needed to be invested just to keep things stable, not even growth, even if they call it growth, but it is not really growth. It's keeping things alive. Gold operations, they have a lot of those, and if you look at it, a little bit less than half is not profitable. So they have extreme high gold mining costs, which was usually the case for South Africa with these deep mines, and the guidance is for production. If we look at sustaining costs for their production, they will not make a lot of money going forward. They made a lot of money as those prices were high. And let's look a little bit at their story to understand where they are investing their money. And then you can also understand the risk and reward of the pet they have chosen. And then of course see how that fits you. First, they discuss these batteries, the Revolution coming, how there will be more and more electrical vehicles sold. And then they discuss multipolarity, angry people, big squeezes, the angry.

Planet has something that has a huge impact on the way they do business, but I don't see it. A lot of big words in their present, it feels like they are a little bit lost because this is the reality. The reality is that use of rhodium, which was the greatest benefit to their revenue pile and profit last years. It's auto Catalyst 92%. 92% Platinum consumption, auto Catalyst, okay 42 jewelry industrial and then padium consumption, auto Catalyst 84.4%. So this company depends on, of course, some gold, some diversification, there a lot of money going into the battery Metals projects, but it is an auto Catalyst company. And if there are more cars sold with catalysts, great. But electrical, as they say in their presentation, don't have Catalyst. Does the use, the future use of padium platinum rhodium could be much, much lower, which means ugly. And they have started to diversify with these big words, battery, etc., but will it be enough is my question. And if I look at their revenues

their financials. You can see here, rhodium was the leader, then gold, palladium, for the first six months of 2023, but that is all AutoCat list. And yes, they have a good balance sheet that is in line with the cash, so nothing wrong there. But if I look at the cash flow analysis, the adjusted Fleek cash flows are significantly negative on the high investments. But if those investments do not lead to the profitability they expect, then that is destruction of money. And especially a company that knows how to mine pgms in South Africa now goes and expands into mining battery metals or things like that in Europe, etc. It's not that straightforward. Mining is a high-risk environment. And the first six months, you can see here, net cash from operating activities 272 more spent on investments. And that means that the cash flows will be negative going forward if the current prices persist. So let's look at the risk and reward in the sector for those prices. Number of charts sold worldwide, okay, things are slowly growing.

if we have a recession, this could be lower already. Then I found this projection from SAP Global Mobility research. So, everyone is going to electrified 30% BMW Jaguar. 100% electrified four doubles Investments GM Investments tantis 4 billion EV Investments by 2020. If we go to 2025 4 period 100% plug-in passengers cars in Europe EV lineup Bentley Jeep Toyota BMW Stellantis everyone is going 100%. And if you go 100%. And if this demand goes to here the next cost Curve will be like this. And yes, these guys will make money depending on also the industry Cycles. But as they say, Peak internal combustion engine is behind us. And when it comes to investing, I prefer to invest with Tailwinds. As Warren Buffett says, if you invest with Tailwinds, even if you make mistakes like buying at the wrong time in the short-term cycle, sooner or later you get rescued by the strong Tailwind, the structural Tailwind. Here we have a

headwind. And yes, you can make money after 10 years of ugly, like it was the case with coal last year, but that's not something you can bet your house on. And these are the projections. We don't know whether it would be fast, faster, slower, something like that. We just know that rhodium prices are still above earlier levels, and the boom here has passed, and we will see where will these prices go if we have a global recession in 2024. This will look even uglier. Palladium Futures are significantly down, so you cannot compare the p ratio four because it was made on higher past prices. Platinum is a little bit more stable, but if I look at this, the total revenue here for the last six months and uh just for the current prices in the second part of the year, the riita will be zero with high investments in a bad Market. You are then betting on a turnaround that you don't know where will happen because you cannot know when the next recovery will happen because if we have a recession.

Global recession or slowdown. Less car purchased, etc., etc. It's not just supply and demand for your industry and what you can control. It's also the interest rate on the lease for the new this or that car, their competition, etc., so there are a lot of moving factors. Perhaps the stock will boom, but you never know when will that be, maybe like this, maybe like this, and I don't think the fundamentals, especially not the cost of production, that this was always a little bit more expensive company. And keep in mind when you are a more expensive company, you have these big jumps and downturns, big jumps, because when commodity prices go up, you make a lot of money, and therefore sib is a more volatile producer. When there will be a turnaround, you make a lot of money. I prefer low commodities investments that make money in whatever environment, which means I can sleep well if there is a five-year recession, which is a costly thing, because when there is a boom, you already make less money because they make always money, but it

depends on the risk and reward you want to take. SI it's an automotive industry investment, which is not a risk I want to take, especially in this environment where we had great years for the automotive industry. I think they are a little bit OV exuberant, and I would wait for a big recession. Then you will see whether SI is still alive in what form, and then you might look at Automotive companies SI copper companies, whatever cyclical a mid-cycle too risky for me. I hope you have enjoyed this head value. You can check what I do my other videos. I'll see you in the next video.

Sibanye Stillwater Stock Analysis NYSE: SBSW

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Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.

시반예 스틸워터는 주가수익비율이 4.

23으로 낮고 배당금과 시가총액이 30억 달러에 달합니다.

남아프리카공화국과 미국에서 생산하고 있으며 배터리 금속과 친환경 에너지 솔루션으로 사업을 확장하고 있는 다각화된 회사입니다.

이러한 금속 분야로의 진출은 전통적인 금속의 잠재적 하락을 예상하여 다각화 및 투자 전략을 취하고 있음을 나타냅니다.

원가 곡선은 다양한 원가를 가진 다양한 생산자를 보여주며, 현물 바스켓 가격은 현재 23,000입니다.

금속 채굴은 점점 더 수익성이 낮아지고 있으며, 대다수의 광부들은 높은 생산 비용으로 인해 어려운 상황에 직면해 있습니다.

이 산업은 생산 수준을 유지하기 위해 지속적이고 상당한 투자가 필요하며, 이는 기업의 재정적 부담으로 이어집니다.

높은 금 채굴 비용과 불확실한 미래 수익성으로 인해 금 채굴 산업은 위험한 투자 환경을 조성하고 있습니다.

로듐과 자동 촉매가 기업 수익에 미치는 영향

이 회사는 매출의 대부분을 자동차 촉매에 로듐, 백금, 팔라듐을 사용하는 데 크게 의존하고 있습니다.

배터리 금속으로 다각화하려는 노력에도 불구하고 높은 투자로 인해 현금 흐름이 크게 마이너스를 기록하면서 수익성에 대한 우려가 커지고 있습니다.

특히 현재와 같은 마이너스 현금 흐름 추세에서 배터리 금속 채굴로의 확장은 고위험 환경에 처해 있습니다.

유럽에서 100% 전기 자동차로의 전환이 예상되는 이유

SAP 글로벌 모빌리티 연구에 따르면 2025년까지 BMW, 재규어, 벤틀리, 지프, 도요타, BMW 스텔란티스 차량의 30%가 전기화될 것으로 예상됩니다.

유럽에서 100% 플러그인 승용차로의 전환이 예상되는 2020년까지 GM과 스텔란티스의 전기차에 대한 투자는 두 배인 40억 달러로 늘어날 예정입니다.

로듐 가격의 지속적인 상승과 팔라듐 선물의 하락은 특히 2024년 글로벌 경기 침체가 발생할 경우 향후 시장 동향에 대한 불확실성을 높이고 있습니다.

글로벌 경기 침체기에 자동차 산업에 영향을 미치는 요인

자동차 산업은 경기 침체에 매우 민감하기 때문에 위험한 투자가 될 수 있습니다.

높은 생산 비용으로 인해 수익성 변동이 심해 변동성이 커집니다.

대신, 특히 불황기에는 일정한 수익을 창출할 수 있는 원자재 투자를 선호합니다.