미국 경제 둔화가 주식 시장 동향에 미치는 영향

### 경제 업데이트: 주식 시장 동향, 자영업의 도전 과제, 새로운 기술
* 📉 미국 증시는 지난주 꾸준한 상승에 따른 **차익실현 매물**이 나오면서 상승세가 둔화되는 조짐을 보이며 혼조세로 마감했습니다.
* 💼 댈러스 연방준비은행의 조사에 따르면 경기 침체로 인해 **소시지 판매가 예상치 못하게 증가**하면서 소비자들이 더 저렴한 단백질 공급원을 선택하고 있는 것으로 나타났습니다.
* 📉 모건 스탠리는 내년에 글로벌 기술주가 침체기에 접어들 수 있으며, 특히 반도체 투자에 영향을 미칠 수 있다고 경고하며, **NVIDIA의 성장세가 둔화될 것**으로 예상합니다.
* 📊 BNK투자증권은 SK하이닉스의 목표주가를 **25만원에서 23만원으로 하향 조정**하며 향후 엔비디아의 HBM 수요에 대한 우려를 반영했습니다.
* 📉 한국의 자영업자들은 **연체 대출금이 15조 원**을 넘어서고, **음식 관련 사업체의 매출이 7% 감소**하는 등 심각한 어려움에 직면해 있습니다.
* 🎶 곧 발매될 신곡 '별이 빛나는 밤'에 대한 기대감이 높아지면서 관련 주식에 영향을 미칠 것으로 예상되는 등 **GPT-2의 출시가 화제를 불러일으키고 있습니다.**
* 🎥 딥페이크 기술의 등장으로 주가가 크게 움직였지만, 오용에 대한 우려로 인해 **책임감 있는 AI 사용의 필요성**이 강조되고 있습니다.
* 🔋 전고체 배터리 기술의 미래가 논의되고 있는 가운데, **LG에너지솔루션은 2026~2027년경 상용화가 예상되는 반고체 배터리 개발**을 선도하고 있습니다.

미국 경제가 둔화 조짐을 보이면서 소시지 판매가 증가함에 따라 소비자들이 더 저렴한 식품 옵션을 선택하고 있습니다.

Hello, everyone. The stock market is indeed unpredictable. Today, let's quickly look at the economic news and study together. Let's get started. The U.S. stock market closed with mixed results. The New York stock market showed a steady rise until last week, but now it seems to be taking a breather, which is a bit surprising. With interest rates now effectively confirmed, we are seeing movements to realize profits. Additionally, tomorrow, NVIDIA will announce its earnings, and on Friday, there will be announcements regarding PCs, which seems to be creating some tension over the possibility of unexpected news. Looking at the Nasdaq chart, it has been rising but now appears to be running out of steam, showing signs of a plateau. As a result, our market is also forming a similar chart.

There are indeed signs of an economic slowdown in the United States, although the height of the indicators may vary. Interestingly, it seems that the increase in sausage sales can reveal this information. Let's take a closer look. 

The discussion about the economic slowdown in the U.S. has emerged from a survey conducted by the Dallas Federal Reserve regarding the manufacturing outlook in Texas. They reported capturing signals of an economic downturn. So, what does this mean? It turns out that the sales of processed sausages are increasing. One might wonder how an increase in sausage sales is relevant. The explanation is that as people's purchasing power diminishes, they tend to buy cheaper options like sausages rather than more expensive protein sources like meat. 

In fact, the sausage sector tends to grow during periods of economic weakness. Consequently, food companies have already caught on to the signs of an impending economic slowdown or recession.

It is said that they are showing signs of preparing for this in advance. This is also somewhat bad news. Let's take a look. Morgan Stanley has warned that global tech stocks will enter a downturn cycle next year. Although there was rapid growth due to AI, it seems that the growth rate will now decrease. Ultimately, they say there is no train that runs forever. The AI semiconductor, which was the first to take off, will start to slow down. During such times, it is advisable to avoid making strong investments in semiconductors and to choose high-quality companies with solid cash flows. This is, of course, a reasonable statement. There is no train that runs indefinitely; everything has its rise and fall. Just as Tesla did in the past, and Kakao, and EcoPro, this time it can be said that Nvidia is in the same situation. In the end, it will be a bit disappointing later on.

It is a foregone conclusion that such discussions will lead to changes in companies. Next, a report has been released that lowers the target price for SK Hynix. Of course, this is just one perspective, so please do not feel that you must sell immediately just because of it. You can simply consider it as one viewpoint. BNK Investment & Securities has adjusted the target price for SK Hynix from 250,000 won to 230,000 won. While this is still a considerably high price compared to now, one could say that it would be nice if it reached this level. However, the lowering of the target price indicates a shift in perspective, which is often interpreted as bad news. So, what is the reason for the decline? There is a viewpoint suggesting that next year, the demand for HBM from NVIDIA may decrease compared to previous levels. The reason for this is...

The next-generation accelerator has been cited for the quality of Blackwell. Nevertheless, SK Hynix is still considered a good company. It is said that Hynix's position within NVIDIA's HBM supply chain will remain strong. Although Samsung Electronics will eventually receive NVIDIA's quality certification, due to performance issues, Blackwell will not be supplied, and it seems that Nix will continue to dominate that space for the time being. However, if HBM demand decreases, we may need to adjust our expectations accordingly. Additionally, it is quite disappointing that Nix's stock price has been declining steadily. If NVIDIA's performance is expected to be strong, it would be normal for Hynix to either hold steady or gradually increase its stock price. Nevertheless,

Hynix has been holding up well lately, but seeing Hynix drop like this makes me realize that there are definitely people who view NVIDIA's earnings negatively. Next, let's take a look at the news regarding self-employed individuals in our country. The situation for self-employed workers in South Korea is very serious. As I speak about this, I feel like I'm sharing bad news, but once we get through this, there will be plenty of good stories, so I'll move on quickly. The total amount of loans in arrears has surpassed 15 trillion won, and the sales in cafes, bars, and other food-related businesses have plummeted. In fact, looking at the first quarter's sales per business, it was 43 million won, which is a 7% decrease compared to a year ago. Operating profit was 9.15 million won, down 23%. Given that even the annual growth is insufficient and we are seeing a regression, it's clear that self-employed individuals are facing significant difficulties.

You might feel it these days; there are vacant commercial spaces everywhere you go. Seoil is in Daegu, and even in Dongseongro, Daegu, there are many places where people say, Wow, how can there be so many vacancies here? The number of vacant stores has significantly decreased, so the remaining businesses need to do well. However, if sales continue to be poor, the number of vacant commercial spaces will increase again, raising questions about whether our country's economy can withstand this situation.

Next, it is said that GPT-2 will be released. There has been much buzz about PTT, and after a period of reorganization, the mini version is finally set to be unveiled. The song Starry Night will be released at 1 PM on the 30th, and there are expectations about whether it can create another global sensation. As a result, related stocks have started to show some reactions.

Now, what's important moving forward is the song. I really hope a good song comes out. That's all for today. Today, Deepfake is really making waves. In our discussion today, the stocks related to Deepfake have risen significantly. This is because news about Deepfake spread since yesterday afternoon. 

So, what is Deepfake? It's a term that combines deep learning and fake, referring to videos that use artificial intelligence technology to synthesize the faces of specific individuals. I believe many of you have probably seen this on social media, like videos of Elon Musk or Trump or Kim Jong-un doing things they would never do. Those kinds of videos are what we refer to as Deepfakes.

However, the important thing is that this technology should be used for good, not for creating harmful content like fake sexual videos, which end up victimizing people. What problems are arising from this?

I saw that someone made a video using their acquaintances and then spread it on Telegram. It has been confirmed that students, teachers, and soldiers have already been victims, and the number of affected schools is over ten. As a result, the shock that has reached the market was significant, and today, related stocks showed a rally, hitting their upper limits. From the early hours of the market today, stocks like Hanbit Soft, C.U., Box, and Sands Lab reached their upper limits. Even though there were strong performances from these stocks, I thought that many sectors might be moving, suggesting that related stocks could continue to fluctuate for a while. On the left, Hanbit Soft reached its upper limit, and similarly, Box and Sands Lab also hit their upper limits. Next, Husteel showed an increase during the trading session. What was the reason for that?

I noticed that Hyusteel invested 1.2 billion in a Saudi pipe company in 2009, but now it seems that this investment is only worth 200 million. Currently, Hyusteel's market capitalization is 230 billion, which has led people to say, What is this? The real value of Hyusteel is only 30 billion, prompting strong buying interest. However, in the end, the stock slid downwards, which is a bit disappointing. For reference, Hyusteel is a company that manufactures structural steel pipes used in plumbing and structures such as Tomo buildings. Although its performance has cyclical fluctuations, it is still showing a profit and offering dividends of over 5%. Next, Samsung Biologics has finally surpassed 1 million won after three years, reclaiming its throne. Although the term bio may be getting tiresome, I still mention it.

There seems to be no choice but to acknowledge that this year, for the first time, sales have surpassed 4 trillion won. As a result, Samsung Biologics has slightly slipped and couldn't maintain the 1 million won mark, but securities firms are continuously sending love calls with a target price of 1.2 million won. Amidst this, Alteogen has also shown an increase today, securing the top position in the KOSDAQ market capitalization. Next, let's take a look at the 52-week high. The news is all about biotechnology. Recently, there has been a lot of discussion about biotechnology, which is evidence of its growing popularity. The first company is Boronov, known for developing targeted therapy new drug candidates, particularly in treatments related to non-small cell lung cancer. The company has now signed a research option agreement with the American biotech company Anvia for a treatment for autoimmune diseases.

The news has emerged that it has achieved a 52-week high. Now, studying biotech is really difficult. Honestly, even if you study, you often don't understand what it means. The most important thing is that no matter how much we study, we cannot know whether it will succeed or not. It's like a lottery with odds, and because of that, the dreams and hopes are quite large. So, when it goes up, it shows a clear upward trend. By the way, Boronoi's performance has been in a continuous deficit.

Next, the second company that reached a 52-week high is Binex, which is related to CM. This company is referred to as a beneficiary of the U.S. Biodefense Act. As you can see from the chart, it has been rising daily, and since it is also related to CDMO, its performance is not bad. However, it has shown a deficit over the past year, leading to thoughts that it may continue to be in the red. According to securities firms' forecasts,

This year, the outrage is reportedly still present in the black market. However, personally, I have thought that after the passage of the Biosecurity Act, a flow of campaigning might emerge. That part is something we need to check a bit. Next, on September 9th, the iPhone 16 will finally be unveiled. It is said to be announced on the 9th of next month, and we will finally be able to see the iPhone equipped with Apple AI. It is reported that the new iPhone operating system, iOS 18, will also be revealed along with the iPhone and Apple Watch. Every time I hear this news, I wonder if I should invest in iPhone-related stocks. However, considering that Buffett sold his Apple shares, I question whether the iPhone will boast impressive sales figures. Will this iPhone bring any innovation? Moving on, yesterday, there was a noticeable rise in yoga. The reason for this is related to Libya.

The eastern government has announced that it will close all oil fields and halt production and exports. Following this news, WTI rose by 3.5%, and Brent crude also increased by 3.05%. It seems puzzling why they would stop when they could be making money. Upon investigation, it turns out that Libya is divided between an eastern government that controls the oil regions and a unified government that controls the capital. Currently, conflicts have arisen due to the position of the governor of the Central Bank of Libya, and as a result of the noise coming from there, such decisions have been made. This can be viewed as an internal issue. Additionally, tensions between Israel and Hezbollah seem to be ongoing, which has contributed to the slight rise in oil prices. However, in our country today, oil-related stocks initially rose in the early trading session but then showed a downward trend. That's all.

Canada has announced the imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods, specifically a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles and a 2% tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum. This indicates that Canada is aligning itself with the United States and Europe. The new tariffs will take effect on October 1. It is worth noting that this announcement came after a meeting between the U.S. Secretary of Commerce and the Canadian Prime Minister. As of now, China has not released any official statement, but it is expected that they may retaliate by reducing pork imports. 

Suddenly, it seems that Tesla is in a difficult position. Why is that? Because the only Chinese electric vehicles imported into Canada are from Tesla. Therefore, it can be said that this news is obviously unfavorable for Tesla. However, it appears that Tesla may be able to avoid tariffs by adjusting its supply chain to include vehicles produced in the United States and Germany.

Today, there was some bad news for Hyundai Motor Company right from the start. The U.S. government announced that it would re-evaluate the environmental permits for Hyundai's Georgia electric vehicle factory. Environmental activists raised concerns that the regulatory authorities had not properly assessed the impact of the Hyundai factory on the local water supply, which prompted this re-evaluation. As for when that factory will actually start operations, it's set for October of this year. So, it’s essentially a factory that has been completed, and it might be surprising that this is only happening now. Fortunately, local officials have stated that even with the re-evaluation, there shouldn't be significant delays in the schedule. 

In the last piece of news, could solid-state batteries be an alternative? There is a re-evaluation underway regarding solid-state batteries for electric vehicles. However, the path to solid-state technology is still very long, and in fact,

It can be quite expensive; it may be up to 100 times more expensive than existing batteries. With such projections emerging, it is indeed a challenging situation for immediate commercialization. This brings us to the intermediate stage of semi-solid batteries. So, what is a semi-solid battery? It is said to be a battery that contains a solid electrolyte, positioned between lithium-ion batteries and solid-state batteries. It has lower risks compared to lithium and offers better performance, with a more reasonable price expected than solid-state batteries.

Who is leading the way? It’s LG Energy Solution. The commercialization of LG Energy Solution's semi-solid battery is expected around 2026 or 2027. We need to pay attention to whether the discussion around semi-solid batteries will start to resurface in the future. That concludes today's study. Thank you for studying together. This has been Gilly Baio.

"충격적인? 경기침체 신호가 떴습니다"

주식초보 / 주린이에게 적합한 주식공부 채널입니다.
저는 알려주는게 아니라 같이 공부하는 입장입니다.
평생 같이 공부하시죠


기릿의 주식노트 Let's Get It

예측할 수 없는 주식 시장과 경기 침체

미국 증시는 혼조세로 마감했으며 뉴욕 증시는 꾸준한 상승세를 보이다 잠시 숨고르기에 들어갔습니다.

다가오는 NVIDIA의 실적 발표와 PC 뉴스가 시장에 긴장감을 조성하고 있습니다.

소시지 판매량 증가는 경기 침체의 신호로, 사람들이 어려운 시기에 더 저렴한 단백질 공급원을 선택하면서 식품 회사들이 잠재적인 불황에 대비하고 있습니다.

SK하이닉스 목표주가의 변화와 자영업자들의 투쟁

BNK투자증권은 SK하이닉스의 목표주가를 기존 25만원에서 23만원으로 하향 조정하며 내년 엔비디아의 HBM 수요 감소 가능성을 시사했습니다.

목표주가 조정에도 불구하고 하이닉스는 여전히 엔비디아의 HBM 공급망에서 강력한 업체로 꼽히고 있습니다.

한편, 국내 자영업자들은 대출 연체액이 15조 원을 넘어서고 매출과 영업이익이 크게 감소하는 등 심각한 어려움에 직면해 있습니다.

빈 상업 공간의 영향과 딥페이크 기술의 부상

빈 상가가 만연하면서 경제 안정에 대한 우려가 커지고 있습니다.

곧 출시될 GPT-2와 노래 '별이 빛나는 밤'이 화제를 불러일으키며 관련 주가에 영향을 미치고 있습니다.

인공지능을 이용해 얼굴을 합성하는 딥페이크 기술이 논란을 일으키며 관련 주가가 크게 상승하는 한편, 유해한 콘텐츠의 가능성으로 인해 윤리적 문제도 제기되고 있습니다.

휴스틸의 투자 투쟁과 바이오테크 급등

휴스틸이 사우디 파이프 회사에 투자한 12억 달러가 2억 달러로 급락하면서 휴스틸의 실제 가치에 대한 혼란이 일고 있습니다.

휴스틸의 시가총액은 2300억 원이지만 실제 가치는 300억 원에 불과해 매수세는 강했지만 주가 하락은 실망스러웠습니다.

반면 삼성바이오로직스는 사상 최대 매출에 힘입어 주가가 100만원을 돌파했고, 보로노프와 바이넥스 등 바이오 기업들은 52주 신고가를 경신하는 등 큰 폭의 성장세를 보이고 있습니다.

시장에 영향을 미치는 시사 이슈

암시장의 분노는 계속되고 있지만, 9월 9일 아이폰 16의 공개와 함께 애플 AI와 iOS 18이 공개되면서 초점이 바뀔 수 있습니다.

리비아 동부 정부가 석유 생산 중단을 발표하면서 WTI와 브렌트유 가격이 상승했고, 전기 자동차에 대한 100% 관세를 포함한 캐나다의 중국산 제품에 대한 새로운 관세는 테슬라에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

Tesla는 미국과 독일에서 생산되는 차량을 포함하도록 공급망을 조정하여 관세를 피할 수 있습니다.

현대자동차의 전기차 공장 및 배터리 기술

미국 정부는 지역 상수도에 미치는 영향에 대한 우려로 현대자동차 조지아 전기 자동차 공장에 대한 환경 허가를 재평가하고 있습니다.

이 공장은 10월에 가동을 시작할 예정이며, 현지 관리들은 재평가로 인해 큰 지연은 없을 것이라고 말합니다.

한편, 전기차용 전고체 배터리는 재평가되고 있지만 높은 비용과 긴 상용화 일정으로 인해 어려움을 겪고 있으며, 반고체 배터리가 보다 실용적인 대안으로 부상하고 있습니다.